A National Bank of Ethiopia delegation during bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the 2026 IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok (Image: @NBEthiopia on X)
The International Monetary Fund expects Ethiopia’s real GDP to grow 9.2 percent in 2026 and then slow to 7.8 percent in 2027, according to the October 2026 World Economic Outlook released Tuesday.
The IMF’s figures for Ethiopia refer to fiscal years, so 2026 covers the year ending in July 2026. The 2026 projection matches the IMF’s estimate of 9.2 percent growth for 2025.
Birr Metrics and The Abay Times said the figures match the Fund’s July 2026 fifth review of Ethiopia’s Extended Credit Facility. Average consumer price inflation is projected to fall from 16 percent in 2025 to 11.7 percent in 2026, then rise to 12.3 percent in 2027. The current account deficit is projected to widen from 0.8 percent of GDP in 2025 to 2.5 percent in 2026, then narrow to 1.3 percent in 2027.
Those numbers put Ethiopia well above the Fund’s Sub-Saharan Africa growth average of 4.5 percent for both 2026 and 2027. Global growth is put at 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. Kenyan Wall Street summarized the Africa table on X, listing South Sudan at 10.5 percent, Ethiopia at 9.2 percent and Rwanda at 7.4 percent for 2026. The Abay Times account posted the Ethiopia slowdown to 7.8 percent in 2027 with a link to its own story.
Ethiopia’s National Bank said on X that a delegation led by Governor Eyob Tekalign held a bilateral meeting with Thomas Revial, assistant secretary at the French Treasury, on the sidelines of the Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank said the talks covered macroeconomic reform, development financing, debt sustainability and investment. In a separate post the bank said the delegation also met the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department and Monetary and Capital Markets Department on capacity building for the Ministry of Finance and for the central bank. The National Bank’s bio describes it as Ethiopia’s central bank, working for price stability and sound financial institutions.
On Wednesday the Ministry of Finance announced on X a planned Treasury Bills issuance of about 133.97 billion birr from October 14 to December 23, 2026, across 28, 91, 182 and 364 day maturities. The ministry posted a calendar graphic for the second quarter of the Ethiopian fiscal year. Capital Ethiopia covered the same outlook and flagged oil and food price risks for import costs and the external account. APA News separately published the Fund’s Ethiopia growth and inflation table and noted that low-income countries as a group are projected to run a current account deficit of 4.8 percent of GDP in 2026, wider than Ethiopia’s projected 2.5 percent.
The Fund warned in the same outlook that geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, rising sovereign yields, trade tensions and uncertainty around artificial intelligence tilt risks downward. For Ethiopia, Birr Metrics noted that imported fuel and fertilizer prices matter because they raise foreign exchange needs and production costs. The October figures do not mark a new headline downgrade from the July ECF review. They do show growth moderating in 2027 while inflation and the current account remain pressure points.
The IMF Africa account separately flagged the October 15 launch of a Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Update, with a press briefing at 5:30 a.m. ET.
Since July 2024 Ethiopia has moved toward a more market determined foreign exchange regime and has sought external debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework. The Bangkok meetings gave the National Bank and the Ministry of Finance a chance to brief partners on that agenda while the World Economic Outlook kept the same central growth path published in July.
Sources:
- Birr Metrics on the October 2026 WEO
- The Abay Times
- Kenyan Wall Street on X
- The Abay Times on X
- National Bank of Ethiopia on X
- NBE on IMF department meetings
- Ministry of Finance on Treasury Bills
- APA News
- Capital Ethiopia
- IMF News on the October WEO
- IMF DataMapper, real GDP growth (October 2026 WEO)
- IMF Africa on the October 15 briefing