A National Bank of Ethiopia delegation during bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the 2026 IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok (Image: @NBEthiopia on X)
The International Monetary Fund expects Ethiopia’s real GDP to grow 9.2 percent in 2026 and then slow to 7.8 percent in 2027, according to the October 2026 World Economic Outlook released Tuesday.
The IMF’s Ethiopia figures refer to fiscal years, so 2026 covers the year ending in July 2026. The projection matches the Fund’s 9.2 percent estimate for 2025 and, according to Birr Metrics and The Abay Times, the July 2026 fifth review of Ethiopia’s Extended Credit Facility.
Average consumer price inflation is projected to fall from 16 percent in 2025 to 11.7 percent in 2026, then rise to 12.3 percent in 2027. The current account deficit is expected to widen from 0.8 percent of GDP to 2.5 percent in 2026 before narrowing to 1.3 percent in 2027. APA News noted that low-income countries as a group are projected to run a 4.8 percent deficit in 2026.
Ethiopia’s forecast is well above the Fund’s Sub-Saharan Africa average of 4.5 percent for both years, and global growth is put at 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. Among African economies, only South Sudan, at 10.5 percent, is projected to grow faster in 2026, according to a summary of the IMF table by Kenyan Wall Street.
The Fund said geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, rising sovereign yields, trade tensions and uncertainty around artificial intelligence tilt risks downward. For Ethiopia, imported fuel and fertilizer prices matter because they raise foreign exchange needs and production costs, Birr Metrics noted, and Capital Ethiopia flagged oil and food prices as risks to import costs and the external account.
Since July 2024 Ethiopia has moved toward a more market-determined exchange rate and has sought external debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework. On the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, a delegation led by National Bank of Ethiopia Governor Eyob Tekalign discussed macroeconomic reform, development financing and debt sustainability with French Treasury official Thomas Revial, the bank said on X.
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