Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi forces seized the Red Sea port city of Mocha on 10 September and pushed on to the Hanish Islands, Yemeni government sources told international wires, a coastal advance that pulls the fight closer to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait opposite Djibouti and Eritrea. Associated reporting put Mocha roughly 80 kilometres from the strait. Government-aligned units were shoved south toward Dhubab, which sits on the waterway across from Perim (Mayyun) Island. The United Kingdom told the UN Security Council the same day that the drive toward Bab el-Mandeb would heighten risks to international shipping, maritime security, and global trade through a corridor that still feeds Asia-Europe liner routes via the Red Sea and Suez.
Commercial traffic has not stopped. Ship-tracking cited by Reuters showed about 26 commodity vessels clearing Bab el-Mandeb on 10 September, near a recent 10-day average around 27, even as Hormuz transits collapsed toward single digits. Houthi spokespeople said navigation remains safe for companies that are not Saudi-linked, while Saudi vessels stay under a previously declared ban. That assurance is cold comfort for underwriters and charterers who already price southern Red Sea war risk far above pre-blockade levels, and for Horn importers who absorb emergency freight and insurance when liners divert around the Cape of Good Hope.
The Horn is not a spectator sport here. Djibouti and Eritrea form the African shore of the same chokepoint. Landlocked Ethiopia still routes the overwhelming bulk of seaborne trade through Djibouti, so any sustained premium spike or diversion around Bab el-Mandeb shows up in fuel, machinery, and consumer prices long before a tanker docks with an Ethiopian consignee. Abiy Ahmed’s government keeps talking corridor diversification. Mocha’s fall and the Hanish advance are a reminder that Addis Ababa does not set London war-risk schedules or Houthi coastal maps. Brent holding above $100 a barrel only tightens the pass-through.
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