Stratfor’s June 2019 assessment praised Abiy Ahmed’s first-year openings yet asked whether the pace was too fast. Political prisoners were released, exiles returned, media space widened, and peace with Eritrea raised hopes. At the same time, hard-line ethnic actors found more room to organise.
The brief argued that economic liberalisation and privatisation talk sat beside fragile security. Ethnic fighting and displacement showed how quickly local conflicts could overwhelm reformers. Stratfor framed the risk as reforms arriving before institutions could absorb dissent.
After the Amhara killings, that warning looked sharper. Stratfor’s line was not that reform should stop, but that speed without stronger security and party management could invite backlash. The piece remains a snapshot of how foreign risk analysts read Ethiopia mid-2019.
Sources: Stratfor