On 6 May 2019 Ecofin summarized African Development Bank research presented with Ethiopian officials: electronic cash registers were linked to roughly 32% higher VAT collections and payments, with variation by sector, firm size, and location.
The study still warned that the tax base remained low, so domestic resource mobilization had plenty of room if policy followed through. Hardware alone does not create trust or stop elite exemptions.
Abiy Ahmed’s fiscal story needed revenue without crushing small traders already living on ekub and cash. Tax reform that only squeezes the visible while connected firms stay soft is not reform.
As governance/banking archive, the AfDB VAT finding is a useful 2019 marker: digital registers can raise collections, but politics still decides who actually pays.
Sources: Ecofin Agency