TPLF and OLF have joined forces yesterday after TPLF captured the entire Wollo, including its capital Dessie and the industrial town of Kombolcha on Sunday. Today, the two rebellious groups have bypassed Kemise town and headed for the town of Karakore, deep into North Shewa Zone. Apparently, TPLF agreed with OLF to avoid capturing Kemise town.
The TPLF-OLF joint force’s next major target appears to be Debre Birhan, only 130 km from Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa. But first, they must pass through the strategic northern Shewa towns of Shewa Robit and Debre Sina where Amhara Fano and militia have been fortifying their defences for the past several months despite being sabotaged by the federal government.
According to military analysts who are knowledgeable of North Shewa, it is highly unlikely that TPLF and OLF can overrun Amhara forces and capture Debre Birhan. If, however, TPLF is able to capture Bahir Dar, the Ethiopian government will collapse, military analysts Mereja spoke with have said. Its proximity to Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa and its strategic location makes Debre Birhan the second most important major city in Ethiopia.
Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership has practically stopped fighting in Amhara Region after its southern Wollo front collapsed due to the extreme incompetence of Abiy’s own leadership and that of his commanders, many of whom are political appointees with no fighting skill. Hence the task of defending against TPLF and OLF has fallen entirely on the shoulders of Amhara Region forces whose fighting efforts have been hampered by Abiy Ahmed’s Administration. Amhara Special Force is not receiving the necessary logistical support from the federal government. Its commander, General Tefera Mamo, has been prevented from appearing on the media and he has been ordered to receive command only from Abiy Ahmed. Unless the Amhara people free themselves from the idiotic leadership of Abiy Ahmed, their very survival as a people is at stake.
Meanwhile, the Biden Administration is increasing its pressure on Abiy Ahmed’s Administration by removing Ethiopia from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) this week. Biden has become the most anti-Ethiopia U.S. president since Jimmy Carter who blocked Ethiopia from receiving military hardware when the country was invaded by Somalia in the late 1970s. Jimmy Carter’s action pushed the new Ethiopian government at the time into the Communist bloc.