Analysis of the shifting power balance in Ethiopia by Ahmed Soliman, a research associate at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ascension was enhanced by an alliance between OPDO and ANDM which has contributed significantly to the diminishing influence of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the dominant member of the coalition since its inception in the late 80s. His first government is carefully balanced, taking into account existing institutional and ethnic dynamics within the EPRDF, although OPDO do hold a number of important positions including the president, prime minister, foreign minister, defence minister, revenue and customs authority and attorney general.
Abiy needs to balance pragmatic power politics with protecting and building consensus, most acutely in the security sector, parastatals and wider governance structures. Oromos now make up a majority on the National Security Council, which gives OPDO significant influence, including deciding when to lift the six-month state of emergency which was re-imposed in February, and opposed by many Oromo MPs.
Abiy does understand the workings of the military-intelligence complex, having served in both the armed forces and the Ethiopian Information Network Security Agency (INSA). Significantly, he has swiftly rebalanced the leadership of INSA and the Metals and Engineering Corporation (the colossal state-owned industrial company run by the military). Their Tigrayan directors have been replaced by civilian directors from other regions, heading off attempts to undermine the new dispensation.
After much speculation, the chief of staff of the Ethiopian National Defence Forces, General Samora Yunis, and Getachew Assefa, the director general of military intelligence, both Tigrayans, retained their positions (though suggestions are Samora could still leave soon). Over the last two decades there has been insufficient effort to ensure the leadership of the security institutions reflects Ethiopia’s diversity. But affirmative action has been taken more recently, ensuring the military and intelligence have deputy directors from different regions – assertive moves that indicate Dr Abiy understands the delicate challenge of balancing continuity and change within Ethiopia’s security state. […] CONTINUE READING
