Africa Showdown: Major Players Involved, including Russia

Against the backdrop of rising tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa, as well as between the latter and Kharthoum, tensions in the ruling Sudanese elite are mounting after the completion of the “Revival” dam due to the disagreements over the Nile spillway. First and foremost, it is the crisis between President al-Bashir and Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour.
The recall from Egypt in December 2017 of Ambassador A.M. Abdel Halim, “for consultations” during the crisis between Cairo and Khartoum has caused the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sudan to protest. The President ignored his opinion, and the official was disgraced. During the visit of Turkish President Erdogan to Sudan, Ghandour did not attend the heads of state meeting. He was replaced by the Minister of Oil and the main lobbyist for Chinese interests Awad Ahmed Al-Jaz. This veteran of the Islamist movement was responsible during the 1989 military coup for the relations between the underground and the military. The head of the Foreign Ministry decided to resign. The head of the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) Mohammed Atta al-Moula (which later affected his career) and Prime Minister Bakri Hassan Saleh prevented him from taking this step.
The polarity of views in the Sudanese leadership is quite high, few hide their points of view, but the political culture does not imply (as in Yemen and Iraq) the mandatory elimination of political opponents. Former dictator Jaafar al-Nimeiri lives in Khartoum, none of the opposition figures were killed (sometimes the most active ones spend a month or two in jail), and in the Islamist party “People’s Congress” exists open differences of opinion. Thus, during the withdrawal of Khartoum from Iran’s orbit of influence, the Defence Minister actively criticized the President’s decision, and is still in office.
The development of events has shown the correctness of al-Bashir’s actions. The recall of the Ambassador, the concentration of additional military contingents on the border with Eritrea in response to the appearance of the Egyptian military, the demonstration of the alliance with Ethiopia (not only political, but also in the coordination of armed forces) forced the President of Egypt A.F. al-Sisi to initiate a compromise at the following trilateral summit.
So, if the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Sudan is fired, it is not due to the differences with the head of the government on a private matter. The issue is much more serious. In mid-November 2017 the Deputy State Secretary D. Sullivan visited Khartoum, informing Ghandour of “Washington’s principle position”: for the US, al-Bashir’s participation in the 2020 presidential elections is unacceptable. The Americans sent this way a signal to the Sudanese political elite that must he must be removed from the post, otherwise this will prevent the development of bilateral relations and prevent the country’s integration into the global financial system. […] CONTINUE READING