African Security Analysis (ASA), a research group that studies security in Africa, published an assessment on September 15, 2026, titled “Bab al-Mandab: Houthi Advance Creates a New Strategic Threat to Africa and Red Sea Trade.” It says the main question about the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has changed. In April, ASA asked what a long disruption could mean for Africa.
By mid-September, Houthi forces had taken the remaining government-held areas along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including Mocha, Dhubab, and Mayyun (Perim Island). ASA says the question now is whether an armed group that controls the Yemeni side of the strait will use that position to put selective or lasting pressure on shipping. ASA rates the current regional strategic risk as “high.” It says the risk could move quickly to “critical” if the Houthis begin systematic attacks on a wider range of commercial ships, or if a sustained military confrontation develops around the strait.
ASA says Djibouti and Egypt face the most immediate strategic and economic exposure. It says Ethiopia faces significant indirect exposure because it depends on the Djibouti corridor. Ethiopia has no coast, and the corridor carries most of its sea trade.
ASA describes three main ways the disruption spreads. The first is a revenue shock for Egypt from reduced traffic through the Suez Canal. The second is a logistics shock for the Horn of Africa and East Africa. The third is a wider rise in prices and pressure on government budgets across African economies, through higher costs for freight, fuel, food, and other goods.
ASA says the choices of shipping companies can cause many of the effects of a partial blockade without the Houthis having to stop every ship. It lists higher war-risk premiums, fewer available ships, changed schedules, and rerouting around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope as examples.
A September 22 update from NNPC Marine, a Dutch marine insurer, described a similar commercial reaction. NNPC said Houthi forces had further strengthened their position around Bab el-Mandeb. It said they had captured, among other places, the port city of Mokha, Perim Island (Mayun) at the narrowest point of the strait, and the Greater and Lesser Hanish Islands.
UK Maritime Trade Operations and the Joint Maritime Information Center continue to warn of higher risks at sea, including attacks and interference with ships’ satellite navigation and tracking signals. NNPC advised its members to avoid the southern Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Gulf of Aden where possible. When a trip through the area cannot be avoided, it asked members to tell it early so that war and kidnap-and-ransom cover can be checked.
Insurers had already widened the high-risk area in the Red Sea earlier in the season. World Ports reported that London’s Joint War Committee extended the high-risk zone in a July 29 advisory. The zone now takes in more of the Red Sea coast next to Saudi ports and reaches close to the Saudi port of Jizan.
World Ports said the change followed a Houthi maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia declared on July 20. It noted that even small changes in war insurance add hundreds of thousands of dollars to a seven-day voyage. Insurance sources said indicative premiums for Jeddah and Yanbu had jumped to 1 percent from 0.25 percent within days.
ASA also links the change on the Yemeni coast to pressure on the Strait of Hormuz at the same time. It says Saudi Arabia had come to rely more on its Red Sea infrastructure as an alternative export route, which makes Bab el-Mandeb more important than usual. ASA says Gulf states and world energy markets now have less room to move trade from one threatened route to another.
ASA says the Houthis have coercive control over shipping in Bab el-Mandeb, but not absolute control. Their positions on the Yemeni coast and Perim Island let them watch and possibly attack ships without having to close the waterway. The Houthis have mainly named Saudi-linked ships as their current target. ASA notes that earlier Houthi campaigns since 2023 showed that stated target lists do not always reassure commercial operators.
ASA says a full closure of Bab el-Mandeb is less likely than selective disruption. It says the effects of a closure would still be severe enough that governments, investors, and logistics operators should plan for it.
ASA’s risk rating and its three-channel model are an analysis dated September 15. NNPC’s advice is guidance for its members after reports of Houthi gains in September. The World Ports insurance figures describe reactions in the London market around Saudi ports in late July.
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