African Security Analysis (ASA) published a report on September 15, 2026. The title is “Bab al-Mandab: Houthi Advance Creates a New Strategic Threat to Africa and Red Sea Trade.” ASA said the key question about the Bab el-Mandeb strait has changed. In April, ASA asked what a long disruption could mean for Africa.
By the middle of September, Houthi forces had taken the last government held areas on Yemen’s Red Sea coast. They include Mocha, Dhubab and Mayyun, also called Perim Island. ASA said the question now is whether a group that holds the Yemeni side of the strait will use that hold to press shipping in a targeted way or for a long time. ASA rates the regional risk now as high. It said the risk could rise fast to critical if the Houthis attack many more merchant ships in a planned way, or if armies fight for a long time around the strait.
ASA said Djibouti and Egypt face the closest risk, both for security and for trade. Ethiopia faces a large indirect risk. It relies on the Djibouti corridor, which moves most of its sea trade. Ethiopia has no seacoast.
ASA listed three ways the harm spreads. First, Egypt earns less when fewer ships use the Suez Canal. Second, the Horn of Africa and East Africa face supply problems. Third, prices rise across Africa and state budgets come under strain. Freight, fuel, food and other goods cost more.
ASA said shipping firms can create much of the effect of a partial blockade on their own. They pay higher war risk premiums. Fewer ships are free to sail. Schedules change. Ships sail around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa.
NNPC Marine, an insurer based in the Netherlands, gave a similar view on September 22. NNPC said Houthi forces had strengthened their hold around Bab el-Mandeb. It said they had taken the port city of Mokha, Perim Island (Mayun) at the narrowest point of the strait, and the Greater and Lesser Hanish Islands.
UK Maritime Trade Operations and the Joint Maritime Information Center still warn of higher danger at sea. The dangers include attacks and jamming of ship satellite navigation and tracking signals. NNPC told its members to stay away from the southern Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden where they can. If a ship must go through, NNPC asked members to tell it early so it can check war cover and kidnap and ransom cover.
Insurers had widened the Red Sea danger area earlier in the season. World Ports said London’s Joint War Committee made the area larger on July 29. The new area covers more of the Red Sea coast by Saudi ports. It comes close to the Saudi port of Jizan.
World Ports said the change came after the Houthis declared a sea embargo on Saudi Arabia on July 20. Even small rises in war cover add hundreds of thousands of dollars to a seven day trip, it said. Insurance sources said sample premiums for Jeddah and Yanbu had jumped to 1 percent from 0.25 percent in a few days.
ASA tied the change on the Yemeni coast to strain on the Strait of Hormuz at the same time. Saudi Arabia had leaned more on its Red Sea ports and pipes as a second route for oil sales. That makes Bab el-Mandeb more important than before. Gulf states and world energy markets have less room to shift trade from one risky route to the other, ASA said.
ASA said the Houthis can coerce shipping in Bab el-Mandeb, but they do not fully control it. Their posts on the Yemeni coast and Perim Island let them watch ships. They could attack ships without closing the strait. The Houthis say they now target ships linked to Saudi Arabia. ASA said past Houthi campaigns since 2023 did not always reassure shipping firms.
ASA said a full closure of Bab el-Mandeb is less likely than targeted disruption. The harm from a closure would still be grave. Governments, investors and shipping operators should plan for that case, ASA said.
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