Boats docked at the Port of Djibouti, with container stacks in the distance, on November 27, 2006 (Kao Akana, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0) [file photo]
Fighting around the Bab el-Mandeb strait is undecided, and insurers treat the southern Red Sea as a war-risk zone. Ethiopia feels both through Djibouti, which handled about 97 percent of its seaborne cargo in 2025/26.
Yemeni government forces said they retook the coast around Bab el-Mandeb and the port of Mokha on October 5 and 6, Mereja reported. On October 10, Yemeni military sources told AFP the strait was not secured and that Perim Island, also called Mayun, was still held by the Houthis (Mereja, October 10). The Yemeni outlet Al Wefaq News reported renewed battles near the strait on October 19 (Al Wefaq News on X). Authorities in Sanaa said Saudi jets hit the lighthouse on Perim on October 23 (Mereja, October 25).
The UK Maritime Trade Operations and Joint Maritime Information Center kept the threat level for the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb at substantial in its October 25 advisory. It said the extent of government control around the strait remained contested and unverified by independent sources. The Joint War Committee’s listed area, as published by the Swedish Club for October 1, still covers the southern Red Sea south of 25.5 degrees north, along with Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Djibouti.
Reuters reported on September 24 that war-risk premiums for tankers with a Saudi link calling at Yanbu had risen to about 3 percent of a ship’s value, from below 1 percent in early July. For ports toward Jizan, four industry sources told Reuters premiums could reach 7 percent. Tankers with no Saudi link usually paid 0.2 to 0.3 percent, the sources said. World Ports said London’s Joint War Committee widened the listed area on July 29 to reach Saudi Red Sea ports.
Ethiopia’s Ministry of Transport and Logistics figures for 2025/26, reported by Birr Metrics, show about 17.57 million tonnes of import and export cargo. About 97 percent moved through Djibouti and about 2.7 percent through Berbera. Ethiopia has no seacoast and relies on the Djibouti corridor for most of its sea trade.
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) said in an October 1 assessment that Houthi gains around Bab el-Mandeb raised risks for Red Sea shipping, energy sites and oil markets. ACLED said the Houthis now focus their maritime attacks on vessels they treat as Saudi linked. It recorded attacks on ten commercial ships between the July blockade announcement and late August, and no corroborated maritime hits after August 24. ACLED expects higher insurance, security and rerouting costs.
African Security Analysis (ASA) gave background in a September 15 report. It said Djibouti and Egypt face the closest risk, and Ethiopia a large indirect risk because it relies on the Djibouti corridor. ASA said shipping firms can create much of the effect of a partial blockade on their own through higher war-risk premiums, fewer sailings and diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. It said a full closure of the strait is less likely than targeted disruption, but the harm from one would be grave.
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