A FEWS NET map of crop water conditions in Ethiopia as of early October 2026, from its Food Security Outlook published on November 10, 2026, with orange areas showing crop failure. Credit: Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).
The famine early warning network FEWS NET says historic rain failures and fighting are likely to push parts of Tigray, Amhara and Afar into Emergency hunger, with more deaths, from February 2027.
In its Ethiopia Food Security Outlook for October 2026 to May 2027, published on November 10, FEWS NET said record shortfalls in the June to September kiremt rains caused heavy crop losses, and that conflict has disrupted markets. The meher harvest is late and well below average, it said, so poor families in the worst hit areas will have little or nothing left and will have to buy food early, at high prices, with little income. Emergency, or IPC Phase 4, is one step below Famine and means high levels of acute malnutrition and rising deaths.
The network said eastern, southeastern and southern Tigray, areas along the Tekeze River, and the lowlands of Wag Hemra and North Gondar in Amhara are expected to stay in Crisis through May, with Emergency emerging from February in the areas hit hardest by drought, where it expects near total crop failure. It said the most remote parts of northern Afar could fall into Emergency between February and May, because trade with Tigray has long been disrupted and insecurity has returned.
FEWS NET said fighting intensified across northern Ethiopia in late September, in eastern, central and northwestern Tigray and in eastern and northern Amhara. It added that food aid is easing some gaps, but that ration cuts, including in refugee operations, and limits on deliveries in conflict areas will reduce its effect.
Local reports point the same way. Addis Standard, citing Tigray TV, reported that regional authorities said every crop planted on 26,722.5 hectares of rain fed farmland in 10 kebeles of Raya Azebo district had been lost to lack of rain. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) accused the federal government and allied forces of seizing food and livestock and burning crops and animal fodder, and cited severe hunger in Tselemti, DNE Africa reported. The TPLF statement gave no evidence for several claims and Mereja Media could not verify them.
Mereja Media found no response from the federal government or the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission to the outlook by Thursday evening. Mereja Media first reported on hunger deaths in war hit Wag Hemra earlier this month.
Sources
- FEWS NET, Ethiopia Food Security Outlook October 2026 to May 2027, Nov 10
- ReliefWeb, Ethiopia Food Security Outlook, Nov 11
- Addis Standard, Drought, conflict threaten Emergency level food insecurity in Tigray, Amhara, Afar, Nov 12
- DNE Africa, TPLF accuses Ethiopian government of looting and burning crops in Tigray, Nov 11
- Mereja Media, People are dying of hunger in war hit Wag Hemra