The European Union said it was alarmed by Ethiopia’s escalating war and rising tension with Eritrea, warning that the confrontation risks a broader regional conflict across the Horn of Africa.
In a statement issued in Brussels by its High Representative for foreign affairs, the EU called for “immediate de-escalation on all fronts” and urged all sides to avoid actions or rhetoric that could raise tensions further. It said the parties to the 2022 Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, signed in Pretoria between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), should recommit to its full implementation within the African Union framework. The statement said civilians must be protected and humanitarian access left unhindered, and that “external actors should refrain from interference, use their influence to prevent further escalation, and advance political solutions and diplomacy.”
The EU statement followed a similar warning from Washington. On Saturday the U.S. State Department said that cross-border tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea could affect the whole region and that “the Horn of Africa cannot sustain another military conflict and humanitarian crisis.” It urged both governments to respect their neighbors’ sovereignty, exercise maximum restraint and return to the 2018 peace framework, and it warned that a conflict would put U.S. cooperation with both countries at risk. The African Union Commission has urged Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise maximum restraint and return to diplomacy, and the AU has asked former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to lead mediation between federal and Tigrayan leaders, The Reporter said.
Amnesty International has asked the AU Peace and Security Council to hold an emergency session on Ethiopia. Tigere Chagutah, its regional director for East and Southern Africa, said the AU should formally put Ethiopia on the council’s agenda because it was a guarantor of the Pretoria agreement, according to The Reporter. The International Rescue Committee ranked Ethiopia fourth on its 2026 Emergency Watchlist, behind Sudan, the occupied Palestinian territory and South Sudan.
The appeals come after the sharpest diplomatic break in the region in years. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara last week and gave 10 Eritrean diplomats 48 hours to leave, accusing Eritrea of hostile acts. Eritrea answered by cutting all diplomatic ties. Ethiopia and Egypt then expelled one diplomat each. Ethiopian officials accuse Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of supporting the alliance of armed groups fighting the federal government, and all three deny it. Abraham Belay, a senior federal official, has accused Eritrea of deploying troops and weapons in the fighting in northern Ethiopia and warned that Ethiopia would respond twice as hard, DW Amharic reported. Eritrea has denied taking part.
Analysts are divided over the risk of a direct clash. Edward Bach of the risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft wrote in a briefing note quoted by AFP that “the continued northward advance of Ethiopian troops and drone strikes in northern Tigray suggest that Ethiopian forces are preparing conditions for a conflict with Eritrea.” Chatham House, the London institute, warned in an assessment reported by DW Amharic that a long war in Tigray could spread beyond Ethiopia into Eritrea and then Sudan unless strong diplomatic efforts are made. An analysis in Al Majalla argued that Ethiopia’s neighbors are likely to avoid direct conflict even if they quietly help the militias fighting Abiy Ahmed’s government.
Ethiopia’s own messaging has not softened. Prime Minister Abiy, sworn in for a new term on Monday, told Parliament that Ethiopia would pursue access to the sea through “give and take” and peaceful means, while saying its rivals were now focused on keeping it away from the Red Sea. The Foreign Ministry said on Monday that geographic and historical realities linking Ethiopia to the Nile and the Red Sea “cannot be altered by political rhetoric, coercive measures, or acts of destabilization,” and that actions carried out through “proxies or acts of aggression” would not change them.
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