German container carrier Hapag-Lloyd confirmed on September 28 that another Asia-Mediterranean service is scheduled to sail again through the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in October and December, even as Houthi forces have tightened their hold around the Red Sea’s southern entrance amid clashes with Saudi Arabia. Samuel Wendel reported for Al-Monitor that the SE1 route’s Umm Qarn containership is set for a westbound voyage from Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia on October 27 to Algeciras in Spain, with a return scheduled for December 5. Earlier this month, Hapag-Lloyd and Danish carrier Maersk said three services under their long-term ocean shipping partnership, known as Gemini, would shift from the longer Cape of Good Hope route back to the Red Sea, while stressing that each voyage would remain subject to security assessments.
Those cautious returns matter for landlocked Ethiopia because most of the country’s seaborne imports, including fuel, still move through Djibouti and then through Red Sea approaches that sit near Bab el-Mandeb. When major carriers divert around the southern tip of Africa, voyages take more time and usually cost more in fuel, crew days and container shipping charges before cargo ever reaches a Djibouti quay and the road or rail leg into Ethiopia. When carriers try the shorter Suez and Bab el-Mandeb path again, Ethiopian importers and fuel buyers still face the same basic question that shipowners face: whether a given sailing is safe enough that week for the schedule to hold.
The security picture around the strait has been unsettled for weeks. The National reported on September 12 that ship traffic through Bab Al Mandeb halved to 15 crossings on Friday from 30 the previous day, according to preliminary data from the analytics firm Kpler, with vessels carrying crude, grains and steel. Iran-backed Houthi forces had seized Perim Island, also known as Mayyun, along with the port city of Mokha and the coastal town of Dhubab, giving them a stronger position over Red Sea shipping movements. Arsenio Longo, founder of tanker movement analytics firm Huax, told The National that Dhubab and Perim matter more for shipping than Mokha alone, because the positions put the Houthis closer to vessels entering and leaving the strait and give them more options to maintain pressure on shipping.
The Houthis have also announced a maritime embargo on vessels linked to Saudi Arabia passing through Bab Al Mandeb, The National reported, and have been attacking vessels in the strait. That pressure has forced some Saudi crude cargoes onto longer Africa routes. Oil prices surged near 110 dollars a barrel earlier that week as the Houthis expanded territorial control, and Brent crude closed the week at about 104.6 dollars a barrel, according to The National. Those oil moves are global market facts, yet they still matter in Addis Ababa and inland towns where pump prices and generator fuel reflect import costs that begin at Djibouti.
Al-Monitor’s September 28 report placed Hapag-Lloyd’s SE1 confirmation against that same southern Red Sea risk, noting that Houthi forces have tightened their hold around the entrance amid clashes with Saudi Arabia and that fresh risks remain for shipping and energy flows on the shortest Asia-Europe link. Three similar Hapag-Lloyd routes had already resumed earlier in the month, the report said, so the SE1 sailing is part of a careful, voyage-by-voyage return rather than a blanket declaration that the corridor is quiet. War-risk insurance premiums, which are the extra insurance costs shippers pay when a voyage runs through waters where war or missile attacks make damage or loss more likely, can rise or fall with those weekly security assessments even when a sailing is listed on a schedule.
Container shipping costs are the prices paid to move a box of goods on a vessel, and they rise when ships burn more fuel on longer Cape routes, wait for safer sailing windows, or pay higher insurance for a Bab el-Mandeb transit. Even a partial return to Suez does not erase those costs overnight, because carriers still cancel or reroute individual voyages when security assessments change. For Ethiopian traders who order goods from Asia or Europe, a missed or delayed sailing can mean empty shelves or idle machines weeks later, long after the shipowner’s decision is recorded in a weekly schedule update.
For Ethiopia, Al Jazeera’s September 29 explainer on northern fighting added a land-side warning that sits beside the shipping story. An offensive in Afar could threaten supply routes from Djibouti through which most Ethiopian imports including fuel pass, Al Jazeera noted, as fighting between Ethiopian Government forces and Tigrayan rebels spilled toward corridors that connect the highland economy to the sea. Cape diversions already stretch the ocean leg around Africa; Afar fighting that threatens Djibouti-linked roads would layer inland delay and uncertainty onto cargo that has already paid for a longer or riskier sea passage.
What the open sources show this week is not a simple reopening of Bab el-Mandeb. Hapag-Lloyd is adding scheduled SE1 sailings through Suez and Bab el-Mandeb while keeping each voyage under security review, after Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk had already moved three Gemini services back from the Cape route. The National’s mid-September traffic drop to 15 daily crossings, the seizure of Perim, Mokha and Dhubab, and Brent’s close near 104.6 dollars a barrel describe a strait that still prices for danger. Ethiopia’s continued dependence on the Djibouti corridor means those ocean and insurance costs, plus any Afar disruption near import routes, can show up later as dearer freight, delayed containers and higher fuel costs for households and factories that never see a sailing schedule.
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