Hapag-Lloyd confirmed on September 28 that another Asia to Mediterranean service will sail again through the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in October and December. Samuel Wendel reported the plan for Al-Monitor. The SE1 route’s Umm Qarn container ship will travel westbound from Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia on October 27 to Algeciras in Spain. A return is scheduled for December 5. Earlier this month, Hapag-Lloyd and the Danish carrier Maersk said three services under their Gemini partnership would shift back to the Red Sea from the longer Cape of Good Hope route. They stressed that each voyage depends on a security assessment.
Most of Ethiopia’s seaborne imports, including fuel, move through Djibouti. Cargo then travels by road or rail into Ethiopia. Diversions around the southern tip of Africa take more time. They also cost more in fuel, crew days and container charges. Importers who use the shorter Suez and Bab el-Mandeb route still face weekly security checks.
Traffic through the strait has stayed unsettled for weeks. The National reported on September 12 that crossings fell to 15 on Friday from 30 the previous day. The paper cited preliminary data from the analytics firm Kpler. The vessels carried crude, grains and steel. Iran backed Houthi forces had seized Perim Island, also known as Mayyun. They also took the port city of Mokha and the coastal town of Dhubab. Arsenio Longo founded the tanker movement analytics firm Huax. He told The National that Dhubab and Perim matter more for shipping than Mokha alone. The positions place the Houthis closer to vessels that enter and leave the strait.
The National reported that the Houthis announced a maritime embargo on vessels linked to Saudi Arabia that pass through Bab el-Mandeb. They have attacked vessels in the strait. The pressure forced some Saudi crude cargoes onto longer routes around Africa. Oil prices surged near 110 dollars a barrel earlier that week as the Houthis expanded territorial control. Brent crude closed the week at about 104.6 dollars a barrel, according to The National.
Al-Monitor placed the SE1 confirmation against that risk. It noted clashes with Saudi Arabia and fresh risks for shipping and energy flows on the shortest Asia to Europe link. Three similar Hapag-Lloyd routes resumed earlier in the month. War risk premiums add insurance costs for voyages through waters with a higher risk of war or missile damage. Those costs can rise or fall with weekly security assessments, even when a carrier lists a sailing.
Carriers still cancel or reroute voyages when assessments change. Ethiopian traders who order goods from Asia or Europe can face empty shelves or idle machines weeks later after a missed sailing.
Al Jazeera published an explainer on northern fighting on September 29. It said an offensive in Afar could threaten supply routes from Djibouti. Most Ethiopian imports, including fuel, pass on those routes. Fighting between Ethiopian Government forces and Tigrayan rebels moved toward corridors that connect the highland economy to the sea.
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