Houthi forces in Yemen have tightened their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow southern entrance to the Red Sea that carries Ethiopia’s sea trade. NNPC Marine Insurance, a Dutch insurer, said in a September 22 update that Houthi units had captured several places in a short time. They include the port city of Mokha, Perim Island (Mayun) at the narrowest point of the strait, and the Greater and Lesser Hanish Islands.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies is an academic institution of the U.S. Department of Defense. In a September 22 report, it said that by taking Mokha, Perim, and other strategic territory, the Houthis have strengthened their hold over the 32-kilometre-wide strait that links the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
The Africa Center wrote that Ethiopia’s population of 120 million is particularly affected because the country relies on Doraleh Port in Djibouti for 90 percent of its trade. Ethiopian ministry figures for 2025/26, reported by Birr Metrics, put Djibouti’s share of cargo through sea gateways at 96.7 percent. The two figures measure different things: the Africa Center refers to all trade, while the ministry figure covers cargo through sea gateways.
The Africa Center said coffee, flowers, and textiles are Ethiopia’s main sources of foreign exchange and depend on access to markets. It said Ethiopia also relies on imports of fuel, cereals, fertilizer, and manufacturing inputs, and that the costs of all of these have gone up. It reported a 63 percent increase in fuel prices in Ethiopia since April.
The largest oil tankers have already stopped using the strait. World Ports Organization reported on September 21, using data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea, that no very large crude oil tankers had crossed the strait since September 9. There had been three crossings earlier that week, compared with 24 in all of August and 63 in July.
Scarlett Suarez, senior intelligence analyst at the risk consultancy Dryad Global, told S&P Global’s Platts, “Mokha and Perim provide the Houthis with their most advantageous position on Bab el-Mandab in years.” She said there was a significant risk to Saudi-linked tankers and cargoes and a greater chance of targeted strikes at the strait. The same report said Platts’ daily rate index for older, less fuel-efficient very large tankers hit a record high on September 16, more than three times its level on July 20.
Other types of ships still use the strait more than the large tankers do. Commodities at Sea data cited by World Ports showed the seven-day average of bulk cargo ship crossings at 12.7 on September 15, down from 17.4 on July 20. Container ship crossings were at 5.9, compared with 6.
The Africa Center recorded a sharper fall in total weekly traffic after July. Weekly volume had grown to about 1.5 million metric tons and 38 ship crossings between January and July. After Houthi missile strikes resumed in July, traffic dropped to 25 weekly crossings carrying 750,000 metric tons. The Center said Red Sea shipping is still less than a third of its level before October 2023, when about 80 ships carrying 3.4 million metric tons passed through each week.
After the 2023 and 2024 attacks, the Africa Center said, shipping lines moved their routes around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. This added up to two weeks and 6,000 nautical miles to their journeys. Red Sea insurance premiums rose from 0.1 percent of a ship’s value to 0.7 to 1.0 percent, or roughly an extra $1 million per ship for each round trip.
World Ports reported that Saudi crude shipments to Asia that take the Cape route made up 58 percent of Saudi-Asia flows in August, compared with 5 percent in July, according to Commodities at Sea. It said that route adds at least three weeks compared with Bab el-Mandeb.
NNPC Marine advised its members to avoid the southern Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Gulf of Aden where possible. When a voyage cannot be avoided, it asked members to notify it early so it can check whether extra war-risk and kidnap-and-ransom cover is needed. UK Maritime Trade Operations and the Joint Maritime Information Center continue to warn of attacks and of interference with ships’ satellite navigation and tracking signals.
The Houthis said in a September 10 statement that Red Sea shipping “is safe,” except for ships linked to Saudi Arabia. Analysts told Platts that general risks had still increased because of past misidentification and retaliation, which have led to more crossfire. Jack Kennedy of S&P Global Market Intelligence warned about the effects. “Even sporadic attacks, seizures, drone or missile launches, and credible threats could raise insurance costs, delay cargoes, complicate chartering, and encourage rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.”
The Africa Center said East African countries such as Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia, which import chemical products and manufactured goods from Europe, must pay higher prices because of the higher transport costs. It also said Ethiopia’s reliance on Djibouti will put pressure on Addis Ababa to speed up efforts to use ports in Somaliland and Eritrea. The Center said this could strengthen cooperation, but it could also deepen regional tensions.
Sources: