{"id":837340,"date":"2026-10-06T12:40:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T16:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/?p=837340"},"modified":"2026-10-06T14:01:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T18:01:15","slug":"eu-warns-ethiopia-eritrea-tension-risks-a-regional-war-as-isaias-returns-from-alamein-talks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/837340","title":{"rendered":"EU warns Ethiopia-Eritrea tension risks a regional war as Isaias returns from Alamein talks"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Flight-tracking<\/p>\n

Flight-tracking screenshot posted by AfriMEOSINT showing an Invicta Air Il-76 cargo plane, registration TL-ATB, flying over Oman and off the coast of Yemen after leaving Abu Dhabi for Ethiopia, posted 6 October 2026 (Rich Tedd \/ @AfriMEOSINT, via X)<\/em><\/p>\n

The European Union said it was alarmed by the escalating war in Ethiopia and by rising tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea, warning that the confrontation risks setting off a broader regional conflict with severe consequences across the Horn of Africa. The statement came as Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki returned home from a four-way summit in Egypt that Addis Ababa sees as aimed against it.<\/p>\n

In a statement issued in Brussels by its High Representative for foreign affairs, the EU called for “immediate de-escalation on all fronts” and urged all sides to avoid actions or rhetoric that could raise tensions further. It said the parties to the 2022 Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, signed in Pretoria between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), should recommit to its full implementation within the African Union framework. The statement said civilians must be protected and humanitarian access left unhindered, and that “external actors should refrain from interference, use their influence to prevent further escalation, and advance political solutions and diplomacy.”<\/p>\n

The EU statement followed a similar warning from Washington. On Saturday the U.S. State Department said that cross-border tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea could affect the whole region and that “the Horn of Africa cannot sustain another military conflict and humanitarian crisis.” It urged both governments to respect their neighbors’ sovereignty, exercise maximum restraint and return to the 2018 peace framework, and it warned that a conflict would put U.S. cooperation with both countries at risk. The African Union Commission has urged Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise maximum restraint and return to diplomacy, and the AU has asked former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to lead mediation between federal and Tigrayan leaders, The Reporter said.<\/p>\n

Amnesty International has asked the AU Peace and Security Council to hold an emergency session on Ethiopia. Tigere Chagutah, its regional director for East and Southern Africa, said the AU should formally put Ethiopia on the council’s agenda because it was a guarantor of the Pretoria agreement, according to The Reporter. The International Rescue Committee ranked Ethiopia fourth on its 2026 Emergency Watchlist, behind Sudan, the occupied Palestinian territory and South Sudan.<\/p>\n

The appeals come after the sharpest diplomatic break in the region in years. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara last week and gave 10 Eritrean diplomats 48 hours to leave, accusing Eritrea of hostile acts. Eritrea answered by cutting all diplomatic ties. Ethiopia and Egypt then expelled one diplomat each. Ethiopian officials accuse Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of supporting the alliance of armed groups fighting the federal government, and all three deny it. Abraham Belay, a senior federal official, has accused Eritrea of deploying troops and weapons in the fighting in northern Ethiopia and warned that Ethiopia would respond twice as hard, DW Amharic reported. Eritrea has denied taking part.<\/p>\n

On Sunday, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt hosted Isaias, Somalia’s Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in New Alamein, where they declared that governance of the Red Sea belongs only to its coastal states. Two Egyptian security officials and a political official told Reuters that the four leaders also agreed to coordinate military and intelligence efforts if the conflict spread to the borders Ethiopia shares with Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia. They gave no further detail. Eritrea’s information minister, Yemane G. Meskel (@hawelti), wrote on X on Tuesday that Isaias and his delegation had come home “after a fruitful, three-day, working visit to Egypt,” listing the El-Alamein Joint Declaration among the high points.<\/p>\n

Analysts are divided over the risk of a direct clash. Edward Bach of the risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft wrote in a briefing note quoted by AFP that “the continued northward advance of Ethiopian troops and drone strikes in northern Tigray suggest that Ethiopian forces are preparing conditions for a conflict with Eritrea.” Chatham House, the London institute, warned in an assessment reported by DW Amharic that a long war in Tigray could spread beyond Ethiopia into Eritrea and then Sudan unless strong diplomatic efforts are made. An analysis in Al Majalla argued that Ethiopia’s neighbors are likely to avoid direct conflict even if they quietly help the militias fighting Abiy Ahmed’s government.<\/p>\n

The question of outside support has also played out on social media. The open-source flight tracker AfriMEOSINT (@AfriMEOSINT), run by Rich Tedd, reported early on Tuesday “more suspicious cargo flights from the UAE to Ethiopia.” It said a Batot Air Il-76TD with the registration XT-ABL had left Al Reef Airbase in Abu Dhabi for Bole Airport and that an Invicta Air Il-76TD, registration TL-ATB, had also left Al Reef bound for Ethiopia. In a second post, the account published Google Earth imagery dated 20 June showing two other cargo aircraft at Al Ain Airport and said both “are used to airlift arms and military supplies from the UAE to Ethiopia, Chad and Libya.” What the flights carried had not been independently verified.<\/p>\n

Berhanemeskel Nega (@berhanenega), a former Ethiopian diplomat and United Nations official, wrote late last week that the UAE “has not only sharply escalated its transfers of lethal weaponry to the regime in Addis Ababa and to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan” but was also directly engaged in hostilities, with its own personnel operating drones, a claim that had not been independently verified. Jawar Mohammed (@Jawar_Mohammed), the Oromo politician, called the U.S. statement “timely and appropriate” but warned that the appeal “may not hold if Eritrea allows fleeing TPLF rebels to cross the border and launch attacks against Ethiopian forces from its territory.” Arabic-language accounts weighed in as well. The Arabic news account Arab Files (@arabfile) summed up the U.S. statement on Tuesday as “an American warning to Ethiopia and Eritrea” and wrote that the Horn of Africa was “on the brink of a new escalation.” The account AMRO (@_amro_abdo_) wrote in Arabic on Tuesday that it was “shameful for Isaias Afwerki to lecture others on democracy and citizenship” while he rules Eritrea “without national elections since independence” and does not allow pluralism.<\/p>\n

Getachew Temare (@getachew_temare), a lawyer and human rights defender, wrote on Monday that, based on information he was receiving, Eritrean forces were “preparing for direct military engagement,” with large infantry, mechanized and logistics units deployed from Irob in eastern Tigray through parts of central, northwestern and western Tigray. Inside Africa (@afric_insde), an X account that does not identify its owner, claimed on Tuesday that Eritrean forces were crossing into Ethiopian territory through Zalambessa and through Bure, on the main road from Afar to Assab. None of those deployment claims had been independently verified.<\/p>\n

Ethiopia’s own messaging has not softened. Prime Minister Abiy, sworn in for a new term on Monday, told Parliament that Ethiopia would pursue access to the sea through “give and take” and peaceful means, while saying its rivals were now focused on keeping it away from the Red Sea. The Foreign Ministry said on Monday that geographic and historical realities linking Ethiopia to the Nile and the Red Sea “cannot be altered by political rhetoric, coercive measures, or acts of destabilization,” and that actions carried out through “proxies or acts of aggression” would not change them.<\/p>\n

Somalia, which signed the Alamein declaration, has kept a door open to Addis Ababa. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud congratulated Abiy on his new term and said he looked forward to working closely with him to strengthen relations between the two countries, Middle East Eye reported. He has also said Somalia does not object to Ethiopia gaining access to the sea through Somali territory. Relations between the neighbors broke down in 2024, when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland for a 50-year lease on 20 kilometers of coast near Berbera.<\/p>\n

Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n