{"id":837258,"date":"2026-10-05T21:40:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T01:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/?p=837258"},"modified":"2026-10-30T20:24:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-31T00:24:40","slug":"economists-doubt-ethiopias-inflation-data-and-nbe-independence-eea-survey-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/837258","title":{"rendered":"Economists doubt Ethiopia’s inflation data and NBE independence, EEA survey finds"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Birr<\/p>\n

Birr Metrics regional inflation chart for 2025 showing Benishangul-Gumuz highest at 23.5 percent and Amhara lowest at 10.73 percent, citing Ethiopian Statistical Service figures (Birr Metrics \/ @birrmetrics, via X, 5 October 2026)<\/em><\/p>\n

A survey of economists by the Ethiopian Economics Association finds deep doubt about official inflation figures, the National Bank of Ethiopia’s independence and the credibility of the fight for single-digit inflation. The Reporter summarised the findings from a research report titled “The Anatomy of Inflation in Ethiopia: Structural Shocks, Policy Credibility, and the Path to Price Stability,” authored by Naser Yenus and released with the association’s expert elicitation results.<\/p>\n

According to The Reporter’s account of the report, 52.3 percent of surveyed experts believe the National Bank of Ethiopia lacks operational independence, and 60.9 percent rate the central bank’s commitment to single-digit inflation as having low or very low credibility. Trust in official statistics is also weak: 57.2 percent of respondents view Consumer Price Index numbers from the Ethiopian Statistical Service as unreliable, and 35 percent suspect a systematic downward bias. When asked why those gaps exist, 71.4 percent pointed to political or institutional pressure. Only 14.3 percent said they rely on official ESS CPI reports as their primary source for inflation analysis, with many turning instead to international financial institutions, informal market observations and peer networks. About 85.9 percent warned that the data credibility gap undermines the central bank’s ability to communicate monetary policy and anchor public inflation expectations.<\/p>\n

Confidence in the birr as a store of value has also slipped since the July 2024 foreign exchange reforms, the survey found. The Reporter said 70.7 percent of respondents feel public and institutional confidence in the birr has deteriorated since those reforms. Looking ahead, 55.6 percent anticipate further increases in headline inflation over the next 12 months, 72.1 percent report a more pessimistic economic outlook than six months earlier, and 47.3 percent rate the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline, specifically limiting central bank money printing, as having low or no credibility. When assigning responsibility for possible persistent inflation over the next year, 33.1 percent cited National Bank monetary policy shortcomings and 27.4 percent blamed broader fiscal management by the Ministry of Finance.<\/p>\n

Experts ranked exchange rate reform and birr depreciation as the leading driver of recent price rises, cited as a major or dominant factor by 83.5 percent, followed by domestic supply shocks at 73.1 percent and global commodity price volatility at 68.8 percent. The study noted that national headline inflation moderated from a peak of 34.04 percent in 2022 to 13.21 percent in 2025, yet regional disparities remain large. The Reporter, citing the EEA material, said Benishangul-Gumuz recorded the highest average regional inflation over 2018 to 2025, at 25.57 percent, with Addis Ababa also among the high-pressure areas in that multi-year average. For 2025 alone, a Birr Metrics chart based on Ethiopian Statistical Service figures puts Benishangul-Gumuz highest at 23.5 percent and Amhara lowest among the listed regions at 10.73 percent. The report combines econometric work with the expert survey and concludes that Ethiopia’s inflation is chiefly structural and supply-driven rather than only excess demand.<\/p>\n

National Bank Governor Eyob Tekalign said in early October that macroeconomic reforms were building a more dynamic financial system, expanding access to finance and strengthening institutions, according to the Ethiopian News Agency. He said a more flexible foreign exchange regime had laid foundations for a market-oriented forex system and that the bank’s policy committee meets quarterly to judge inflation trends. Planning Minister Fitsum Assefa<\/a>, speaking around the same reform forums, said average annual inflation had eased from more than 26 percent before the reforms to slightly above 16 percent in the first year after implementation. Mereja Media did not find a public response from the National Bank or the Ethiopian Statistical Service to the survey.<\/p>\n

Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n