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Saudi Arabia had used its East-West pipeline to divert around 4 million barrels per day to the Red Sea after Iran constrained Gulf exports via Hormuz from March, Reuters reported. The kingdom shut that pipeline on September 11 after drone attacks it blamed on Iraq-based militias backed by Iran, and loadings at Yanbu had yet to resume fully according to industry sources, satellite images, and shipping data. Pankaj Khanna, CEO of Heidmar Maritime Holdings, told Reuters it was easier to work Hormuz right now because the United States provides some cover there, while the Red Sea offers \u201cnothing\u201d comparable for commercial ships. \u201cIf you have a Saudi connection, then you have a problem,\u201d he said. Heidmar is avoiding Saudi ports while remaining active in both Hormuz and the Red Sea.<\/p>\n
The Houthi factor sits at the southern gate. Reuters said Iran-aligned militants who seized swathes of the Yemeni coast and captured Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait this month have vowed to target vessels linked to Saudi Arabia because of Riyadh\u2019s backing for Yemen\u2019s government. Corey Ranslem of Dryad Global said Bab el-Mandeb tanker traffic remained \u201conly a handful of vessels per day,\u201d with dry bulk, certain products, and limited non-Saudi tankers still moving. The Saudi-led coalition said the kingdom intercepted six Houthi ballistic missiles on Thursday, including toward the Yanbu area. David Smith of McGill and Partners told Reuters the market had seen rates \u201ccertainly north of 7 percent for all calls south of Yanbu.\u201d War-risk cover typically runs in seven-day voyage blocks and is reviewed daily, which can push a Yanbu journey toward about $3 million and southern Saudi or Hormuz calls toward about $7 million, up from at least $100,000 before the wider war, according to the same Reuters reporting.<\/p>\n
For Ethiopia, the Red Sea insurance story is not a distant Gulf problem. African Security Analysis\u2019s September assessment argued that Houthi control of Yemen\u2019s Red Sea approaches and Perim creates coercive leverage even without a formal blockade, because higher war-risk premiums, reduced vessel availability, and Cape of Good Hope diversions can deliver many of the economic effects of a partial closure. ASA named Djibouti as the African state most immediately exposed and Ethiopia as facing significant indirect exposure through dependence on the Djibouti corridor. That corridor still carries the bulk of Ethiopia\u2019s seaborne trade. Earlier Ethiopian ministry figures for the 2025\/26 financial year, reported previously by Birr Metrics and summarised in Mereja\u2019s September 24 corridor piece, put Djibouti\u2019s share of maritime-gateway cargo at about 96.7 percent. Those are earlier ministry numbers, not a new 2026-09-25 release, and they should be read as the standing logistics map rather than a fresh survey.<\/p>\n
When underwriters mark Saudi Red Sea calls at 3 percent and southern ports near 7 percent, liner schedules and fuel-product voyages into the Gulf of Aden feel the same risk climate even when individual Ethiopian-bound ships are quoted closer to the non-Saudi 0.2 to 0.3 percent band. Charter rates, bunker costs, and precautionary diversions still raise the landed cost of diesel, jet fuel, fertiliser, medicines, and factory inputs before trucks leave Djibouti for the highlands. ASA\u2019s earlier April warning, updated in September, listed freight, fuel, food, and fertilizer as the main transmission channels into African prices. Abiy Ahmed\u2019s government continues to speak about multimodal reform and alternative ports. The standing Djibouti dependence shows how little of that talk has changed the bill that households and factories pay when Bab el-Mandeb stays in the high-risk box.<\/p>\n
Northern fighting tightens the same lung from the land side. AFP and ACLED reporting this week places pressure on Afar approaches that feed the Djibouti corridor, while analysts say Tigrayan and allied operations may aim at cutting federal supply lines. If ocean premiums stay elevated and Afar roads or rail approaches become contested, Ethiopia faces a double squeeze: dearer maritime risk into Djibouti, and harder inland movement from Djibouti into the highlands. That combination hits consumer prices even when palace speeches call Red Sea access a national destiny and when Abiy Ahmed\u2019s regime presents corridor projects as resilience.<\/p>\n
Verification limits remain important. Reuters\u2019 3 percent and 7 percent figures are quoted premiums from industry sources who declined to be named, not a regulator\u2019s published tariff. Dryad\u2019s \u201chandful of tankers\u201d line is a security firm\u2019s traffic snapshot, not a customs ledger. ASA\u2019s Ethiopia exposure judgment is an analytical assessment. The 96.7 percent Djibouti share is an earlier ministry figure carried in prior reporting, not a fresh September 25 release. What the record does support is a sharp rise in Saudi-linked Red Sea war-risk quotes, Houthi leverage around Perim and Bab el-Mandeb, thin tanker traffic through the strait, and a Horn import system that still leans overwhelmingly on Djibouti. Until those premiums fall and Ethiopia actually spreads cargo at scale, Saudi Red Sea insurance is one more line item on Ethiopia\u2019s freight bill.<\/p>\n
Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Saudi Arabia had used its East-West pipeline to divert around 4 million barrels per day to the Red Sea after Iran constrained Gulf exports via Hormuz from March, Reuters reported. The kingdom shut that pipeline on September 11 after drone attacks it blamed on Iraq-based militias backed by Iran, and loadings at Yanbu had yet […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":52,"featured_media":754978,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7911,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-754979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-ethiopian-news"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/redsea-feat-75b90c.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9NivD-3ap5","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/754979","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/52"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=754979"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/754979\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":755016,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/754979\/revisions\/755016"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/754978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=754979"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=754979"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=754979"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}