{"id":711794,"date":"2010-04-08T07:02:58","date_gmt":"2010-04-08T11:02:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/economics\/2010\/04\/08\/economist-mike-mussa-sunny-side-up\/"},"modified":"2026-10-04T12:08:03","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T16:08:03","slug":"economist-mike-mussa-sunny-side-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/711794","title":{"rendered":"Economist Mike Mussa: Sunny Side Up"},"content":{"rendered":"

Things aren\u0092t as bad as they seem, says economist Mike Mussa<\/strong>, who predicts a far stronger global recovery than most prognosticators.<\/p>\n

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The one-time chief economist of the International Monetary Fund<\/strong> who now works at the Peterson Institute for International Economics<\/strong> will unveil his projections later today — as usual two weeks ahead of the IMF, which drives his former employer nuts — and he expects the world economy to expand 4.5% this year and 4.6% in 2011.<\/p>\n

Mr. Mussa can argue GDP components and currency misalignments with the best of macroeconomist. But his argument basically comes down to one golden rule — \u0093Deep recessions are usually followed by steep recoveries is a very broad historical regularity,\u0094 he says, according to his prepared remarks. Actually that’s the \u0093Zarnowitz rule,\u0094 he says, named after economist Victor Zarnowitz<\/strong>, an expert on the business cycle, who died last year at age 89.<\/p>\n

Using the basic insight of what-goes-down-should-go-up, he expects the U.S. to grow 4% this year and 4.1% in 2011; perpetually stagnant Japan to grow 2.7% in 2010 followed by 3% next year; and the suffering euro zone to expand 2% this year and 2.7% next year. All those predictions are more optimistic than the conventional wisdom.<\/p>\n

He also expects very rapid growth in China — 10% in 2010 and 9% in 2011 — but so do a lot of forecasters.<\/p>\n

Mostly, though, Mr. Mussa is a contrarian. \u0093The V-shaped recovery [which he] forecast a year ago at the depths of the great global recession of 2008-2009 is now clearly under way,\u0094 he plans to say.<\/p>\n

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Things aren\u0092t as bad as they seem, says economist Mike Mussa, who predicts a far stronger global recovery than most prognosticators. The one-time chief economist of the International Monetary Fund who now works at the Peterson Institute for International Economics will unveil his projections later today — as usual two weeks ahead of the IMF, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":788,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4821],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-711794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9NivD-2Zay","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/788"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=711794"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711794\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":813269,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711794\/revisions\/813269"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=711794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=711794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.com\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=711794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}