China is a rapidly rising nation that will soon displace the US as the diplomatic and economic superpower. What are your opinions on that?
Meziechi Nwogu
The United States is undeniably the only superpower in the world today. The current perception is that America’s status is waning. The reality is that the U.S. will remain a superpower in the next foreseeable future, even if China's economy becomes larger. China faces major geographical constraints, military limitations, and domestic problems. I will explain in details.
GEOGRAPHICAL CONSTRAINTS: UNITED STATES VS CHINA
The United States shares land borders with strategic partners - Canada (to the North) and Mexico (to the South). This is territorial water border with Russia in Alaska - North West, and two territorial water borders in the South East between Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas. The 48 states are buffered and protected by the vast Pacific Ocean on the West, the Atlantic Ocean on the East, and the Gulf of Mexico on the South East. Alaska is protected by the Pacific Ocean to the South, the Bering Strait to the West, and the Arctic Ocean to the North.
On the Pacific side, the U.S. has many strategic allies; New Zealand, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Many have U.S. Military personnel and assets; South Korea, Japan and Diego Garcia in the region.
On the Atlantic side, U.S. via NATO has cemented its strategic partnership with the European continent. U.S. troops are stationed in Germany, Italy, Greenland, and Italy. Egypt and Morocco in North Africa have treaties with the U.S. for economic and military cooperation. Thus America has the geopolitical freedom to push its interest globally in any direction.
Unlike America with substantial geopolitical space, China’ side is a bit complicated.
China is in East Asia and shares a border with the special administrative regions of Macau and Hong Kong. China has the largest number of neighbors (14) sharing its 22,000 km land borders.
To the East, China overlooks North Korea, South Korea, and Japan,
•
North Korea-Recent relations have chilled, but still on OK terms. Both share a 1,416 km border along the Yalu and the Tumen rivers. Once China’s closest ally, it is now a major liability for China due to its nuclear program, the purge of many high-ranking pro-Chinese officials. North Korea depends on China for most of its food, electricity, fuel, etc due to international sanctions.
•
Japan-Chilled relations. Territorial disputes over the Diaoyu - known in China / Senkaku islands – in Japan in the East China Sea.
•
South Korea-Neutral / Cold. On like Japan, China–South Korea relations is relatively steady. Both signed a Free Trade Agreement in December 2015. However, the United States’ decision to deploy the THAAD system in 2017 cooled their relationship.
To the North, China shares boundaries with two neighbors:
•
Russia-Complicated but on tactical friendly terms for now to counter U.S. power. The Chinese-Russian border is 3654 km along Xinjiang and the Altai Republic. Through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS, China and Russia aid each other on trade, economic and world affairs against the United States and its Western allies.
•
Mongolia-Critic. The Mongolian-Chinese border spans 4677 km along the Altai Mountains to the Gobi desert in Mongolia; the Manchurian border. Mongolia is eager to reduce dependence on Beijing, which accounts for over 80% of its exports even as the proposed China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor takes shape. Ulaanbaatar is seeking deeper ties with India
China’s Western border is adjacent to four Central Asian countries:
•
Kazakhstan-Friendly state and allied through Russia. Kazakhstan shares a 1533 km border with China. China sees Central Asia as an investment opportunity. The Kazakhstan–China oil pipeline is one of China’s significant investments to secure 20 Million tons per day of oil supplies from Kazakhstan to China.
•
Kyrgyzstan - Neutral. its border with China stretches over 858 km along the Tian Shan Mountain range.
•
Tajikistan - Friendly state and allied through Russia. The China-Tajikistan border is 414 km. Thousands of Tajikistan students study in China , and a border dispute in the Pamir Mountains was settled peacefully.
•
Afghanistan - Neutral. The Chinese-Afghanistan border is 76 km long Badakhashan Province in Afghanistan and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. China wants to extend theChina-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan along the Wakhan corridor.
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are members of the China-dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and Afghanistan has observer status in the organization. China utilizes the SCO to deepen and widen its economic ties with Central Asia for oil & gas supplies and help to crackdown on Islamic fundamentalism and Uighur separatism.
To the South, China has seven neighbors:
•
Pakistan - Allies. The China-Pakistani border is 523 km along the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan area ending near the Karakoram Pass. China has aligned with Pakistan against India regarding Kashmir. The China – Pakistan Economic Corridor will enable China to bypass the vulnerable Indian Ocean and Strait of Malacca in the event of a naval blockade by India and U.S. Navy.
•
India - Critic. India has 3380 km border with China. Two territories currently in dispute are Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. China is India’s largest trading partner.
•
Nepal - Neutral. Nepal border with China is 1440 km along the Himalayas ranges. Nepal considers China a major source of investment, development aid and economic support, whereas China sees Nepal as a strategic buffer state against India concerning Tibet.
•
Bhutan - Neutral. Border is 470 km long with China. The Doklam Plateau is under dispute with China.
•
Myanmar - Friend. Its border with China is 2185 km long. China is the largest trade partner and largest source of investment for Myanmar in roads, ports, power, and energy.
•
Laos - friend. China - Laos border-span 423 km miles between Yunnan province, China from and Luang Namtha in Laos. China has become the largest foreign investor in Laos.
•
Vietnam-Critic. The China-Vietnam border is 1283 km in Gulf of Tonkin. they have a dispute over the Paracel and Spratly Islands at the South China Sea.
Maritime Borders: China claims 80% of the South China Sea, which is contested by its maritime neighbors; Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines. $5 trillion worth of global trade passes through the South China Sea each year. China is also in dispute with Japan over the extent of their respective exclusive economic zones in the East China Sea.
Taiwan: China views Taiwan as part of its territory. China sees Taiwan as critical to control the first island chain to clam and control the South China Sea. These first island chain restricts the Chinese Navy’s access to the second island chain (Guam etc.) and then to the broaf open oceans in the Pacific.
ECONOMY: UNITED STATES VS CHINA
China’s economy is growing at an impressive rate. China is the world’s largest exporter at $2.26 trillion as at end 2017. But it’s not just the size of an economy that matters—it’s also the quality.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the GDP per capita in the US was $59,495 (PPP) / $59,500 (Nominal) as at end 2017. In China it was just $16,624 (PPP) / $8,643 (Nominal).
88% of foreign currency market transactions are in U.S. Dollars. Euro ranks 2nd at 31.4%. Chinese Yuan ranks 8th at 4%.
The United States is the number one trading partner for over 40 countries throughout North America, South America and Western Europe. They include major economies of China, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Canada, United Kingdom, Israel and many more. U.S. has FTA with 15 countries like Canada, Mexico (NAFTA), Israel, Columbia, Australia, Chile, Singapore, South Korea and many more. An additional 17 FTA is under consideration.
China is the top partner for 26 countries in Asia and Australia. For instance; Singapore, South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong etc. China has FTA with 16 countries like Chile, ASEAN, Switzerland, Singapore, South Korea,etc.
MILITARY CAPABILITY: UNITED STATES VS CHINA
America’s military superiority remains unrivaled—full stop. The US accounts for 35% of global military spending, and spends almost 3 times what China, the world’s No. 2 spender.
The U.S. dominates across land, sea, air, and space.
The U.S. has a population of just over 325 million. About 1.35 million are active military personnel and another 865,000 reserve personnel. From its $19 trillion-plus GDP, the USA spent around $610 billion on its military in 2017, which is about 3.3% of its GDP.
China has a population of about 1.4 billion. Approximately 2.2 million are active military personnel, and another 500,000 are serving as reserve personnel. In terms of troop. From China’s $12 trillion GDP – they spend about $228 billion is spent on its military in 2017, which is about 2% of its GDP.
The U.S. has around 8,850 tanks, and China has 9,151 tanks.
Regarding military aircraft, the USA is almost spoiled for choice. The U.S. has some of the world’s most impressive aerial fighting machines. This includes 195 F-22A Raptors, 1017 F-16 Fighting Falcons, 220 F-15E Strike Eagles, and 187 F-35A Lightning IIs. The F-35 is said to be perhaps the most advanced military aircraft ever to be invented.
China air force fleet consists of 76 Sukhoi Su-30MKKs, 388 Chengdu J7, 24 Sukhoi Su-35s.
The U.S. navy consists of 11 aircraft carriers, 22 cruisers, 65 destroyers, 21 frigates, 70 nuclear submarines.
PLA navy has just one aircraft carrier, 0 cruisers, 31 destroyers, 49 frigates, 14 nuclear submarines.
United States has a strong military alliance with Europe through NATO, Japan, Australia, South Korea, GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.), Egypt and many more to protect its global interests. Though China is not a part of any significant military alliances, it has close strategic and military relationship with Russia through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
As for nuclear capabilities, the United States and China are two of nine countries in the world that have nuclear weapons. The U.S. has 7100 while China has 260 nuclear weapons. The U.S. allow Nuclear sharing with NATO partners; Germany, Italy, Belgium, and Netherlands for the use of nuclear weapons by NATO.
The U.S. has strong local defence contractors that supply the military with state of the art weaponry to defend U.S. interest aboard. They include Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, etc. Major customers of U.S. arms include Saudi Arabia, UAE, Australia, Taiwan, Egypt, and South Korea.
China does have a robust local defense industry manufacturing industry, but it’s not as dynamic as the United States and even Russia. So it still dependent on imports from Russia, Israel, and France. China delivered major arms to mainly Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Algeria.
The United States has six regional commands to monitor different theaters.
•
United States Africa Command: responsible for U.S. military operations, in 53 African nations except for Egypt.
•
United States Central Command responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East, parts of northern Africa, and Central Asia, most notably Afghanistan, and Iraq.
•
United States European Command responsible for U.S. military operations in Europe, Israel, and Greenland.
•
United States Indo-Pacific Command responsible for U.S. military operations in the South China sea, Indian ocean (Red sea, Bay of Bengal, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf) Australia, Hawaii, China, Japan, and South Korea.
•
United States Northern Command responsible for U.S. military operations in the homeland plus Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Canada, Mexico, and Bahamas.
•
United States Southern Command responsible for U.S. military operations in the Caribbean, Central, and South America.
On 11 July 2017, China opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti on the northeastern coast of Africa. The naval base will house 10,000 troops. Djibouti is located on the Bab el Mandeb strait, a vital waterway that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. This strait is at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, en route to the Suez Canal, one of the world's most prominent shipping lanes. In 2015, roughly 900 million metric tonnes of goods passed through the canal and the strait. China is an export-oriented economy, so it has an interest in securing this vital trade route.
For China to become a global power in the 21st century, it would need to establish its military capabilities, develop local defence industry, establish some formal alliances and devote substantial financial resources towards military expenditure.
POLITICAL INFLUENCE: UNITED STATES VS CHINA
Political power comes in many dimensions.
Powerful international economic, military and financial institutions such as the World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and World Bank are all U.S. led Institutions that enable it to exert diplomatic, economic, military influence in global politics and trade.
• The World Trade Organization is a global organization made up of 164 member countries that deals with the rules of international trade between nations. Its goal is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly as possible.
• NATO is a military alliance of 28 countries bordering the North Atlantic Ocean set up in 1949 to counter the Soviet Military deployed in Central and Eastern Europe. NATO safeguards the security of all its members by military means. Collective defense is at the heart of the Alliance.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization of 189 countries that fosters global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade. The World Bank provides low-interest loans, interest-free credit and grants to improve education, health, infrastructure, and other developmental programs of member states.
China has established its own institution for geopolitical and economic influence; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Belt and Road Initiative.
• Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was founded in June 2001 by China and Russia to strengthen military, economic and geopolitical relations among member states especially with Central Asia.
• Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank founded by China in 2016 to fund infrastructure projects in the Asia-Pacific region.
One Belt One Road is a Chinese project that will build trade routes between China and the countries in Central Asia, Europe, and Indo-Pacific littoral countries. The OBOR initiative is two parts:
• The ‘belt’ refers to the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt‘ which is land-based. It will connect China with Central Asia, Eastern, and Western Europe.
• The ‘road’ refers to the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’ which is sea-based. It will connect China to South-East Asia, Africa, and Central Asia.
Six economic corridors and one maritime route have been proposed under the OBOR:
• New Eurasian Land Bridge. (connect Western China to Western Russia)
• China – Mongolia – Russia Corridor (North China to Eastern Russia via Mongolia)
• China – Central Asia – West Asia Corridor (Western China to Turkey via Central and West Asia
• China – Indochina Peninsula Corridor (Southern China to Singapore via Indo-China)
• China – Pakistan Corridor (South Western China to and through Pakistan)
• Bangladesh – China – India – Myanmar Corridor (Southern China to India via Bangladesh and Myanmar)
Maritime Silk Road connecting Coastal China to the Mediterranean via Singapore-Malaysia, the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will still maintains the sole superpower status in the near future. However, China can rival the United States if it develops an extensive military alliance, the economic clout and the financial muscle to influence global politics.
