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Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 06 Apr 2021, 19:29



ኣልተዓኑት ኣል-ኣስዩቢ ?

ባሁን ጊዜ በየግብጽና የፈርዖን ኣገሪትዋን የሚፈሩ የኣረብ ሜድያዎች የሚትሰማው ነገር " ኣልተዓኑት ኣል-ኣስዩቢ " የሚል ኣታላይ ቅጽል-ስም ነው ። ኣልተዓኑት በትግርኛ እንደ ድርቅና ነው የሚተረጎመው ።

በሌላ ኣነጋገር የግብጽ ሌቦች " ናይል በሁሉ የኛ ነው ። ከ " ታሪካዊ ድርሳችን " ኣንዲት ኩባያም ብትሆንም የሚነካልን የለም ። ውሃ መከፋፈል ክሱዳንና ግብጽን ብቻ ነው የሚሆነው ። ኢትዮጵያ ግድቡን መሙላት ከፈለገች በብዙ ዓመታት መሆን ኣለበት ። ኢትዮጵያ በህግ እንደምታሰር ራስዋን በራስዋን መፈረም ኣለባት ። ከቻልን በማስፈራራት ጥቁሮችን ገድለን ይሁን ጥቁር ከጡቁር - ሱዳን በመጠቅም - ኣገዳድለን የውሃውን ዋነኞች ተጠቃሚዎች እንሆናለን ። " ኢያሉ ኢትዮጵያን ደረቅ ኣቋም እንዳላት ኣድርገው ይወንጅላሉና ያጠቃሉ ።

ኣረቦች ቁም-ነገር ኣዘል የሆኑት ተረቶች - ከሱ ሳይማሩ - ስለሚወዱ ስለ ጁሓና ኣህያ ልነግራችሁ ።

ከእለታት ኣንድቀን ጅሐ ወደ ንጉስ ቀርቦ " ኣንድ ኣህያ ካመጣህልኝ በኣስር ኣመት እንደ ሰው እንደሚናገር ላደርግልህ እችላለሁ " ይለዋል ። ንግሱ በጣም ኣስገርሞት ለሰራተኞቹን ኣህያ ኣምጡለት ብሎ ኣዝዞ ጁሓን ቃሉ እንዲያከብር ኣስጠንቅቆ ያሰናብታል ።

ከዚያ ቡሃላ ጅሓን የሚቀርቡ ሰዎች " ኣንተ ጁሓ ንግሱን ጨካኝ መሆኑን እያወቅህ ለምን በድፍረት የማይሆን ነገር እንደምታርገው ኣድርገህ ከሱ ጋር ውል ትገባለህ ? " ብለው ጠየቁት ። ጁሓ " ይህማ የሚያስፈራ ነገር ኣይደለም ። ካሁን እስከ ኣስር ኣመት የኣምላክ ፍቃድ ሆኖ እኔ ልሞት እችላለሁ ንግሱም እንደዝያ ኣህያውም እንደዝያ ። ስለዚ በኔ መጨነቅ ተገቢ ኣይደለም ። " ብሎ ባለስጋት ጓደኖቹን ኣጽናና ።

ይህ ምን ለማለት ነው ? ግብጻውያ - መጅዲ ኸሊል የሚባል የተዋህዶ ሰው እንዳለው - በመሰረቱ ግድቡን ኣይፈልጉትም ። ጊዜ ያስታርቀናል ብለው ስለሚያምኑ ግን በታክቲክ " ኢትዮጵያውያን የሃይል ማመንጫ ግድብ ሊሰሩ ሲፈልጉ እኛ ኣንቃወምን " ብለው ይለፈልፋሉ ። ዋና መርገጫቸው ግን " ሙት ያ ሑማር " ነው ። በሌላ ኣነጋገር " ግድቡን የሞምላት ጊዜ ኣስረዝመን ባገኘነው ጊዜ ኢትዮጵያ በውስጥ ኣዳክመን የረጅም ጊዜ ፍላጎታችን ለማግኘት እንችላለን " የሚል ኣስተሳሰብ እና ስልት ኣላቸው ማለት ነው ።


Abe Abraham
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Posts: 8245
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 07 Apr 2021, 00:53


An expert advises the government to disengage from Egypt in the Renaissance Dam negotiations. ( In other words : Let us negotiate separately with Ethiopia to safeguard our immediate interest )


The expert in economics and urban planning, Dr. Adel Abdel Moneim, called on the Sudanese government to disengage from the negotiations of the Renaissance Dam between Sudan and Egypt in order to vary the risks, while accelerating to enter into bilateral negotiations with Ethiopia to prevent the drowning scenario as happened the previous year.

Abdel Moneim said to (Al-Attiba), Sudan must make an offer to Ethiopia to fill the dam by the end of August to avoid a recurrence of the sinking scenario, as happened last year.

Abdel Moneim added: We are only three months away from the date of filling the dam next July, which leads to a major drought in the Nile. And the exit of water and electricity stations from service, and he said, after the rains on the Ethiopian plateau, billions of cubic meters will spill from the dam to Sudan and lead to terrifying floods amounting to three times what happened last year, which leads to the inundation of Khartoum and five states on the Nile Strip.
خبير ينصح الحكومة بفك الارتباط مع مصر في مفاوضات سد النهضة

دعا الخبير في الاقتصاد و التخطيط الحضري دكتور عادل عبد المنعم ، الحكومة السودانية الى فك الارتباط في مفاوضات سد النهضة بين السودان ومصر لتباين المخاطر ، مع الاسراع للدخول في مفاوضات ثنائية مع اثيوبيا لمنع سيناريو الغرق كما حدث العام السابق.


وقال عبدالمنعم لـ( الانتباهة) ، يجب على السودان تقديم عرض لاثيوبيا لملء السد بنهاية اغسطس لتجنب تكرار سيناريو الغرق كما حدث العام الماضي


وزاد عبد المنعم : أننا على بعد ثلاثة أشهر فقط من تاريخ ملء السد في يوليو القادم وهو ما يؤدي إلى جفاف كبير في النيل وخروج محطات المياه والكهرباء من الخدمة ، وأبان، بعد هطول الأمطار في الهضبة الاثيوبية سوف تندلق من السد مليارات الامتار المكعبة الى السودان وتؤدي إلى فيضانات مرعبة تبلغ ثلاثة اضعاف ما حدث العام الماضي مما يؤدي لاغراق الخرطوم وخمسة ولايات على الشريط النيلي.



Abe Abraham
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Posts: 8245
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 09 Apr 2021, 09:50




" ሙኣማራት " ( conspiracies/ብትግርኛ ውዲት ፡ ምምሽጣር ) የሚወዱ ግብጻውያን ስለ የህዳሴ ግድብ ምን እያሉ ናቸው ?

ከኣንድ ሳምንት ኣካባቢ በፊት በፍራስን24 ኣረብኛ ኣገልግሎት ቲቪ በጣም የሚያስገርም ንግግር ሰማሁ ። ተናጋሪው ( ኮመንቴተር) እጅግ የማከብረው ሰው ቢሆንም የህዳሴ ግድብ ጉዳይ ኣንስቶ " ይህ ጉዳይ ሊፈታ ከሆነ እስራኤል ከየናይል ውሃ የሚያስፈልጋት ልታገኝ መቻል ኣለባት ። ግብጽ ኣስቀድማ/ድሮ ቀይባህር ኣቋርጦ ወዲ ሲናይ የሚደርስ ቱቦ/ፓይፕላይን ተክላለች ። ከዚያ ቱቦውን ኣስረዝመህ ለእስራኤል ውሃ ማካፈል የሚያዳግት ኣይደለም ። " ሲል ሰማሁት ። ይህ ምን የሚያስገርም ነገር ኣለው ? መልሱ ፥ ሰውየው የጫዋታ ሰው ኣይደለም ፡ ዩትዩበር ሳይሆን የስም ያላት የፈረንሳ መንግስት ቲቪ ሰራተኛ ነው ። ስለ'ዚ እሱ ለምን እንደሱ ብሎ ተናገረ ?

የህዳሴ ጉዳይ ከተነሳበት ግዜ ጀምሮ በግብጽ በህዝቡ የሚዘዋወሩ ወሬዎች ነበሩ ፥

1_ ግድቡ የእስራኤል እጅ ኣለበት
2_ግድቡን ፋይናንስ የሚያደርጉ ግብጽን ለማንበርከክ እና ለማካበብ የሚፈልጉ ምእራባውያን ሃይሎች ናቸው
3_ እስራኤልን ከይናይል ውሃ ለማካፈል ጫና ሊደረግብን ይችላል።
4_ግድቡን የሚጠብቁ ስፓይደር ---- የሚባሉ ሚሳይሎች የእስራኤል ናቸው።

የመጨረሻው ፥

5_ ኣልሲሲ የሚያደርገው ያለ የትያትር ጨዋታ ኣንድ ኣላማ ኣለው ፥ ብችግር ገብተን ስላለን ከሳንወድ ለእስራኤል ውሃ ማስተላለፍ ሌላ ኣማራጭ የለንም ። እስራኤል ውሃ ካገኘች ለኢትዮጵያ ጫና ኣድርጋ እኛም ያለንን ድርሻችንን እንዳይነካ ለማድረግ እንችላለን ።

ስለ'ዚ ልንመልሳቸው የሚገባን ጥያቄዎች እነዚህ ናቸው ፥ የእስራኤል እጅ ኣለ የሚባለው እውነት ነው ወይ ? እውነት ካልሆነ ለምን ፍራንሥ24 (የኣረብኛ ኣገልግሎት ) ጉዳዩን ኣንስቶ ይናገራል ? ሰውየው ከየፈረንሳ የኢንተለጀንስ ሰዎች ያገኘው መምሪያ ሊኖረው ይችላል ወይ ? ኣል-ጀርያውያን ጓደኞቼ ፍራንሥ24 የሙኻባራት ( ኢንተሊጀንስ ) ቲቪ ናት ይላሉ ።
'

Abe Abraham
Member+
Posts: 8245
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 09 Apr 2021, 23:28

በቃላቴ !


የፕሮግራሙ ኣርእስት " ኣል-ሲሲ በሱዳን ፡ ሱዳንን ከኢትዮጵያ በውግያ እንድትገባ ሊገፋፋት " ቢሆንም ከካርቱም በቴለፎን የሚናገረው ሱዳናዊው ጋዜጠኛ - የመደቡ ኣቅራቢው ሳልሕ ኣል-ኣዝረቕ እንዳመለከተው - ኣርእስቱን ሌላ ለየት ያለ ኣቅጣጫ እንዲወስድ ኣደረገው ። ጋዜጠኛው ምን ይላል ?

" ከዚህ በፊት የሱዳን ሁኔታ - ኣል-በሺርን " ካወደቀ " ህዝባዊ ንቅናቄ/ " ኣብዮት " ቡሃላ - ወይም እንደ ሊብያ ወይም እንደ ግብጽ ፡ ከሁለቱ ኣንድ ፡ ሊሆን ይችላል ብየ ነበር ።

ኣሁን ባሉት ክስተቶች ስመለከት ሱዳን የግብጽ ሲናርዩ እየተከተለች ናት ። የሱዳን ወታደሮች ( እነ ቡርሃን ) የመሪነታቸው ጊዜ ( ብስምምነቱ መሰረት ኣንደኛው የሽግግር ጊዜ ግማሽ የወታደሮች መሪነት ሲሆን ሁለተኛው ደሞ የሲቪልያኖች ነው ። ) ሳይጨረስ " የኣስጊ የጸጥታ ሁኔታ " የሚባለው ተጠቅመው የሲቪልያኖች ክንፍ ኣዳክመው ( ዝም በል የህዳሴ ግድብና የፈሸቓ ጉዳይ ኣለን ፡ ኣገሪትዋ ብዙ የውስጥና የውጭ ቻለንጆች/ ብድሆታት - በትግርኛ - ኣላት እያሉ ) ስልጣናቸው ለረጅም ጊዜ የማራዘም መደብ ኣላቸው ።

ኣል-ሲሲ የሱዳንን ዓስከር ( ጋዜጠኛው ሆን ብሎ ወታደር ከማለት ዓስከር የሚል ቃል ይጠቀማል ። ኣገልጋዮች ማለቱ ነው ። ) ክሎን ኣድርጎ የግብጽን ገጽታ እንዲ ወስድ እያደረገ ነው ። ይህንን ጉዳይ ከማንኛውም ነገር ለኣልሲሲና ለቡርሃን ኣስፈላጊ ነው ።

ውግያ ይነሳል የሚል ትያትር ትልቁ ስራቸው ለማተግበር ነው ። ኣሁን የሱዳን ዓስከር ( የግብጽ ተገዢና ኣገልጋይ ) በኣልሲሲ ምሉ በሙሉ ቁጥጥር ይገኛል ። ዓስከሮች ከዘመነ በሺር ጀምረው የመስረትዋቸው 400 ካምፓኒዎች የሚነካልን የለም ፡ ንብረታችን ናቸው ፡ እያሉ ነው ። ( የግብጽ ወታደር በህዝቡ በሁሉ የገባበት ጦርነት የተሸነፈ የክዩከምበር ቶማቶና ቅጠላ-ቅጠል ወታደር ተብሎ ነው የሚታወቀው ። ኣንድ የእስራኤል ጋዜጣ በዚ ኣርእስት ኣመልክቶ የግብጽን ሰራዊት የሚያቋሽሽ ሪፖርት ባለፉት ወራት ኣቅርቦ ነበር ። )
"

የጋዜጠኛው ቃላቶች እንዳሉ ከወሰድናቸው ሰውየው ሱዳን በኣደጋ ላይ ትገኛልች ብሎ ፡ የሚሰማ ካላ ፡ ጭሆቱና ስቃዩ እያሰማ ነው ።

በዚች ኣዲሲትዋ ቪድዮ ኣገር-ወዳዱ ሱዳናዊ ጋዜጠኛ ምን ይጨምራል ?

" ሁለተኛ ሙሌት ከተፈጸመ ቡሃላ ቀርቶ ኣሁንም የህዳሴ ግድብን ለማጥቃት ኣይቻልም ። በኣንደኛ ሙሌት ወቅት ወደ ሱዳን ትንሽ በዛ ያለ ውሃ ስለፈሰሰ ብዙ የካርቱም ቦታዎች የማጥለቅለቅ ሁኔታ ኣጋጥሞት ነበር ። ከዛ ባሻገር ግድቡ ሲሰራ ገንዘብ ያቀረቡ ኢንቨስተሮች ከተለያዩ የኣለም ኣገሮች ስለሆኑ ለጥቅማቸው ብለው ግድቡን ልታፈርስ ስትሞክር ዝም ብለው ኣያዩህም ። ኢትዮጵያ ከኣፍሪቃውያን በስተቀር ሌሎች ሸምጋዮች ልትቀበል የማትፈልገው ፈርታ ኣይደለም ። የህዳሴ ግድብ የኣፍሪቃ ግድብ ነው የሚል እምነት ኣላት ። የኢትዮጵያ ኣቋም በጣም ጠንካራ ነው ። ግብጽና ሱዳን የሞምላት ጉዳይ ኣንስተው ኢትዮጵያን ፡ እስዋ ባልነበርበት ጊዜ በሱዳንና ግብጽ መካከል የተደረገው ውሃውን የመከፋፈል ስምምነት ፡ ለሁል ጊዜ ለማስፈረም ይፈልጋሉ ( ህገ-ወጡን ለሁል ጊዜ ህገ-ለበስ ለማድረግ !! ) ።

ግብጽ ልታደርጋቸው የምትችል ነገሮች ኣሉ ፥ ሱዳንን በፈሸቓ ጉዳይ ምክንያት ኣነሳስታ ኢትዮጵያን harass /ለማስቸገር ልትገፋፋት ትችላለች ። ሱዳንም ለትግራይ እና ለበኒ ሻንጉል የመሳሰሉት የውስጥ ሃይሎች እንድትረዳ ግብጽ ልትገፋፋት ትችላለች ።

እንደ ግብረ-መልስ ኢትዮጵያ የግብጽ ተቃዋሚዎች ልትረዳ ትችላለች ። የግብጽ ተቃዋሚዎች በቱርክና ሌሎች ኣገሮች ይገኛሉ ። ሊያደርጉት የሚችሉ ብዙ ነገር የለም ።

ሱዳን ባሁኑ ጊዜ ከመሳርያ ያጠቁ የተለያዩ ሃይሎች ሰላም እያደረገች ስላለች እንዳ ማልክ ኣጋር የመሳሰሉ ሰዎች - በኢትዮጵያ ደንበር ኣቅራብያ ይንቀሳቀሱ የነበሩ - ካርቱም ገብተው ከመንግስት እየተባበሩ ነው ። በምስራቅ ሱዳን ያለው ግንባርም ከድሮው ሲነጻጸር ኣርፈዋል ።

ስለዚ የእርስ-በርስ ተቃዋሚ ሃይሎች የመጠቀም ዘዴ ከተጀመረ የምትጎዳው ኢትዮጵያ ናት ። ( ከየመንግስቱ ሃይለ-ማርያም የመሰለ የግብጽ ኣገልጋይ በኣለም ሊገኝ ኣይችልም ። የኢትዮጵያ የውስጥ ጉዳይና ኤኮኖምያዊ እድገት ትቶ በኤርትራ ለብዙ ኣስርተ-ዓመታት ኣንድ ሚልዮን የሚሆን ህዝብ ይገድል ነበር ። ወያኔም የሱ ኣስር ተከትሎ የዋህ ህዝቡና ሌላ ኤሊቶች ተጠቅሞ በትርጉም-የሌሽ ውግያ ከኤርትራ ጋር ገባ ። የኣንድ ሚልዮን ህዝብ የማጥፋት ወንጀል ሳይበቃ በራሱ ሌላ ለመጨመር ታስቦ ማለት ነው ። )

ለተቃዋሚ ሃይሎች ልከህ ግድቡን በከፊል ጎድተህ ( ተርባይኖች ) እኔ ኣላደረግሁትም ለማለት ትችላለህ ። ምእራባውያን ሃገሮች ( ኣሜሪካ ኤውሮጻ ) ሳያፈቅዱልህ ግድቡን ምሉ በሙሉ ለማውደም ስለማትችል በራስህ የኣየር ሃይል በመጠቀም በግድቡ ከፊላዊ መበላሸት ልታደርስም ትችላለህ ።

ሆኖ ግን ሁሉ ስትመለከተው ወታደራዊ መፍትሄ ኣስቸጋሩ ስለሆነ ይፈጸማል ብየ ኣላምንም ። ችግሩ ሊፈታ ከቻለ በነቱርክ የመሳሰሉ ኣገሮች ፡ ከኢትዮጵያ ጥሩ የቢዝነስ ግንኙነት ያላቸው እና ከግብጽ ደሞ እየተቀራረቡ ያሉት ፡ ሊሞከር ይችላል ። "




'

Roha
Member
Posts: 1914
Joined: 17 Feb 2011, 00:38

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Roha » 10 Apr 2021, 00:57

Many thanks to our multilingual analyst, Mereja's Abe Abraham, who follows the crazy Arab media closely and for tending this thread very well. As far as I know, you are the only forum member here who is legally certified in more than four or five languages. It is very extraordinary, lucky is ER's Mereja and thanks to you, we get it here for free.

Abe Abraham
Member+
Posts: 8245
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Apr 2021, 06:01

Roha wrote:
10 Apr 2021, 00:57
Many thanks to our multilingual analyst, Mereja's Abe Abraham, who follows the crazy Arab media closely and for tending this thread very well. As far as I know, you are the only forum member here who is legally certified in more than four or five languages. It is very extraordinary, lucky is ER's Mereja and thanks to you, we get it here for free.


Thanks for your appreciation. I do my best to share with you things that I find amusing and interesting. The Arabs, in particular the Egyptians are very funny people but not always in a positive sense.


Abe Abraham
Member+
Posts: 8245
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Apr 2021, 22:10

Abe Abraham wrote:
09 Apr 2021, 09:50



" ሙኣማራት " ( conspiracies/ብትግርኛ ውዲት ፡ ምምሽጣር ) የሚወዱ ግብጻውያን ስለ የህዳሴ ግድብ ምን እያሉ ናቸው ?

ከኣንድ ሳምንት ኣካባቢ በፊት በፍራስን24 ኣረብኛ ኣገልግሎት ቲቪ በጣም የሚያስገርም ንግግር ሰማሁ ። ተናጋሪው ( ኮመንቴተር) እጅግ የማከብረው ሰው ቢሆንም የህዳሴ ግድብ ጉዳይ ኣንስቶ " ይህ ጉዳይ ሊፈታ ከሆነ እስራኤል ከየናይል ውሃ የሚያስፈልጋት ልታገኝ መቻል ኣለባት ። ግብጽ ኣስቀድማ/ድሮ ቀይባህር ኣቋርጦ ወዲ ሲናይ የሚደርስ ቱቦ/ፓይፕላይን ተክላለች ። ከዚያ ቱቦውን ኣስረዝመህ ለእስራኤል ውሃ ማካፈል የሚያዳግት ኣይደለም ። " ሲል ሰማሁት ። ይህ ምን የሚያስገርም ነገር ኣለው ? መልሱ ፥ ሰውየው የጫዋታ ሰው ኣይደለም ፡ ዩትዩበር ሳይሆን የስም ያላት የፈረንሳ መንግስት ቲቪ ሰራተኛ ነው ። ስለ'ዚ እሱ ለምን እንደሱ ብሎ ተናገረ ?

የህዳሴ ጉዳይ ከተነሳበት ግዜ ጀምሮ በግብጽ በህዝቡ የሚዘዋወሩ ወሬዎች ነበሩ ፥

1_ ግድቡ የእስራኤል እጅ ኣለበት
2_ግድቡን ፋይናንስ የሚያደርጉ ግብጽን ለማንበርከክ እና ለማካበብ የሚፈልጉ ምእራባውያን ሃይሎች ናቸው
3_ እስራኤልን ከይናይል ውሃ ለማካፈል ጫና ሊደረግብን ይችላል።
4_ግድቡን የሚጠብቁ ስፓይደር ---- የሚባሉ ሚሳይሎች የእስራኤል ናቸው።

የመጨረሻው ፥

5_ ኣልሲሲ የሚያደርገው ያለ የትያትር ጨዋታ ኣንድ ኣላማ ኣለው ፥ ብችግር ገብተን ስላለን ከሳንወድ ለእስራኤል ውሃ ማስተላለፍ ሌላ ኣማራጭ የለንም ። እስራኤል ውሃ ካገኘች ለኢትዮጵያ ጫና ኣድርጋ እኛም ያለንን ድርሻችንን እንዳይነካ ለማድረግ እንችላለን ።

ስለ'ዚ ልንመልሳቸው የሚገባን ጥያቄዎች እነዚህ ናቸው ፥ የእስራኤል እጅ ኣለ የሚባለው እውነት ነው ወይ ? እውነት ካልሆነ ለምን ፍራንሥ24 (የኣረብኛ ኣገልግሎት ) ጉዳዩን ኣንስቶ ይናገራል ? ሰውየው ከየፈረንሳ የኢንተለጀንስ ሰዎች ያገኘው መምሪያ ሊኖረው ይችላል ወይ ? ኣል-ጀርያውያን ጓደኞቼ ፍራንሥ24 የሙኻባራት ( ኢንተሊጀንስ ) ቲቪ ናት ይላሉ ።
'
Is there an Israeli connection to the Renaissance Dam ?



The guy is talking about :

1_Al-Sisi TRIED and FAILED to dissuade ISRAEL from supplying Ethiopia with the Israeli-built SPIDER missile system to protect the THE GREAT ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM ( GERD ).

2_A water pipeline from the Nile supplying ISRAEL with water - with the Egyptian "reluctant consent " - could be a solution to the GERD problem.



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Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 12 Apr 2021, 16:17


Ethiopia addresses all concerns of Sudan on GERD: MoFA


Addis Ababa, April 12, 2021 (FBC) – Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Ethiopia has addressed all of the concerns of Sudan on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as they are technical matters.

Data exchange has been offered and dam safety is an issue that is well taken care of by Ethiopia for its own safety in the first place, the Ministry said.

The Ministry added that for years Sudan’s officials have been lauding GERD’s importance to deter flooding, regulate water flow for irrigation, remove a huge chunk of silt and sedimentation and provide cheap energy.

Ministry expressed doubt that the interest of the Sudanese people could be served by rejecting the filling of the dam.

There is no experience to compare with Ethiopia which invited its downstream riparians to negotiate on its own hydro-electric generating dam on the river originates from its lands, according to the Ministry.

Egypt failed to recognize Ethiopia’s generosity and understandings to negotiate in good faith, the Ministry stressed.

Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 04 May 2021, 21:43


Motaz Zahran,the ambassador of Egypt to the United States, asks the United States to get involved in the criminal act of his country to force Ethiopia to sign a " legally binding paper " which settles for once and for all that the Abay Water belongs to Egypt and Sudan based on the 1959 " Sudanese-Egyptian " agreement :lol: :lol: What would happen if Egypt doesn't get its crazy and unreasonable demands ? Obviously the sky would fall ....!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: Read the threats , in the extract below. The Egyptians think that the Americans are fu..ed up especially some members of The US DEPARTMENT of the TREASURY !!


https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/29/ ( Read the rest if you have access to foreignpolicy.com and the Nile !! )

Motaz Zahran

Since Ethiopia has hampered negotiations, Egypt needs the United States to preserve its access to the Nile :lol: .

History shows that progress along the Nile can be fragile, and a single dispute can have harmful ripple effects that destabilize the region and reach our allies in the West :lol: . Failing to resolve the rapidly escalating issue over the GERD would accelerate the already devastating impacts of climate change :lol: in the area, unleash a wave of illegal migration to the West :lol: , and open the door to new conflicts and even terrorism in the Middle East and East Africa :lol: .



The Egyptians are totally naked. They tried to hoodwink Ethiopia into signing a " legally binding " agreement that would give legality to the so-called " Egyptian historical share " of the Nile Water .

Here is Hussein Ahmed BaEqay of Ethiopia making it clear that Ethiopia would never sign a document that allocates ZERO share to Ethiopia from the water which flows from its territory :


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EL4HS0JVdmo

Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 05 May 2021, 19:44



New pillars of Egyptian foreign policy

Many changes in the region have overshadowed the balance of foreign policy in the Egyptian administration.

Muhammad Abul Fadl ( Egptian writer )

The regional crises facing Egypt revealed that it needs a new foreign policy, as it has succeeded in weaving a large network of relations with multiple powers, but it did not reflect positively on it or contribute to facilitating the task of solving the problems it faces, as most of them are still suspended or static.

The developments in the regional and international systems were reflected in Egypt and others, where the intensity of conflicts played a role in limiting the traditional capabilities of foreign policy, and the effect of the intertwining of conflicts and the diversity of their parties on the state’s vitality in reaping quick fruits, not to mention the transformation in the plans of major powers, such as withdrawal from tensions And get involved in it.

There are many changes in the region that have overshadowed the balance of foreign policy in the Egyptian administration, but there are two striking elements that have greater influences, which force Cairo to adjust its perceptions after reducing dependence on them, the first is the fluctuation in relations with the United States, and the second the apparent imbalance in the Arab system, collectively and individually. .

In detailing each element, many determinants are evident that confirm the size of the change that has occurred, and the developments that may lead to it in the foreign policy of Egypt, and the new rituals it imposes in order to be able to cope with the upcoming changes, and the developments may compel it to adopt a different strategy from what it used to be. For the past five decades.

Regarding the American element, Washington is no longer the lever on which Cairo relies, and its strength was established with the signing of the peace agreement with Israel and its political and security implications. President Joe Biden's administration tends to keep a distance from Egypt, while acknowledging the constants that take a military direction, which means that there is a disparity in Details both internally and externally.

Let go of the confusion that the US administration is going through about the issues it deals with, and stress that it does not support the Egyptian perceptions, or more precisely, it does not stand with it in a single trench in the controversial files, and if it appears in the Palestinian file close to its vision of the two-state solution, but it did not Take actions that support this trend.

Cairo faced suffering in Libya during the administration of President Donald Trump, who was said to be the biggest supporter of Egypt at the time, and was forced to open up to various forces to coordinate with it, and Washington was one of them, and the situation continues in the fluctuating pattern, and it may change negatively if the United States finds the need to harass Egypt.

The same situation has been repeated with the Renaissance Dam crisis. Although Cairo is aware of the strength of the American role and its ability to exert pressure on Ethiopia, the Biden administration is reluctant to help solve an intractable crisis that accompanies tributaries that affect Egypt and its foreign behavior, and in the case of adopting a rough option, it may find itself. In an extended clash with Washington.
Washington is no longer the lever on which Cairo relies, and its strength was established with the signing of the peace agreement with Israel and its political and security implications. Joe Biden's administration tends to keep a distance from Egypt.
Cairo realized that its Western tools in general are difficult to rely on for support or participation in solving the external crises to which it is exposed, some of which are existential, which leads to the trend towards powers such as Russia and China, because the majority of European active countries adhere to the circulation in the orbit of the United States, and the independent margin that moves In it, it will not be allowed to benefit Cairo.

The problem comes from that any major political turn toward Russia and China leads to changes in the balance of power in the region. Cairo’s success in opening up militarily to contradictory powers from the East and the West came within contexts related to the equation of arms trade, which is acceptable at certain limits, while it goes beyond the permissible limit. With regard to the types of armament and equipment that brings pressure, as evident is the warnings that were directed at Cairo after signing agreements with Moscow to acquire advanced Sukhoi planes.

The situation regarding foreign policy seems far from the known biases, because adopting positions in support of Egypt forces it to pay an exorbitant tax. No country offers free forgiveness instruments in light of the keenness on the multiplicity of the movement’s fronts following the collapse of the ideas involved in the traditional policy axes.

There may be a country that agrees with a second country in one file and disagrees with it in another, for the total and decisive support on ideological bases has almost ended in the world, which requires sacrifices in perceptions that stem from the process of exchanging interests, which is what Egypt finds itself in front of it if it wants to establish the bid on Russia For example, and bear the consequences of leaving the US cordon.

Moscow, which enjoys the external pressures on Cairo, can find an opportunity to reformulate its relations with it in a way that brings it closer to its relationship with the Iranian and Syrian models, or even the Turkish, which has achieved success for both, taking into account the relative differences in the behavior adopted by Ankara in several regions and is not consistent with the equation that Cairo establishes it for itself in foreign policy and adheres to non-interference in the affairs of other countries.

As for the Arab circle, it is noticeable that the Gulf ocean, which was one of the safety valves and one of the central constants in Egyptian politics, began to change, especially with both Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, and the divergence appeared in managing the crisis with Qatar and Turkey, and strengthened with Iran, as Egypt maintained its quiet relationship With Tehran and its tails in the region.


The acceleration of relations between the Gulf states and Israel, without coordination with Egypt, contributed greatly to the current gap, and made it rethink the common safety net, because every progress that Israel makes on the level of normalization and its extension is an opponent from the balance of the Cairo regional movement, and it must search for new frameworks. Enable it to compensate for the loss of this network in the future.

The crisis increased with the disappointment of the Egyptian bet on Saudi Arabia and the UAE in putting pressure on Ethiopia to ease its stubbornness in the Renaissance Dam crisis, as the two countries made huge investments to benefit from the development results resulting from it, and they appeared as if they were comfortable with the dilemma in Egypt, which prompts it to think about a great rotation, if it continues The case the way it is.

The compass of Egyptian thinking is moving towards openness to Iraq, strengthening relations with Jordan, consolidating them with Sudan, and looking away at the countries of the Arab Maghreb, to strengthen the pillars of Egypt's foreign policy, but these countries have deep problems that will not allow them to help Cairo. Rather, they are waiting for material and moral aid that might Egypt cannot provide it.

The natural result of these complications leads to a gradual dissolution of Arab commitments, which means a retreat inward, to the detriment of the Egyptian interests, whose setbacks expand with each retreat, so they must search for productive frameworks that represent new levers in its foreign policy.

Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » Today, 00:01

The Renaissance Dam crisis: Signs of Egyptian submission to the second filling due to pressure.

May 07, 2021


Egyptian and Western diplomatic sources in Cairo revealed surprises related to the developments of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis file, confirming that there is a major retreat in the Egyptian position due to a group of external factors.

Egyptian diplomatic sources told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed that the Egyptian moves at the present time are limited to attempts to persuade the United States of America to intervene through direct mediation, similar to the one carried out by the previous administration during the era of President Donald Trump, adding that this proposal faces what It can be called "an American unprepared at the moment."

She indicated that Cairo called on the American envoy to the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, to direct mediation , or to try to pressure the Ethiopian side to expand the mediation by the African Union, to bring about a kind of balance.


Gulf financial deposits have turned into a pressure card on Egypt

The sources familiar with the aspects of the crisis interrupted what they described as "the truth of the situation", saying, "Egypt has begun preparing for the second filling, formally at the level of all concerned parties," noting that "there are authorities in the state that are preparing a new popular speech and messages to be broadcast through the media," To deal with the Ethiopian move, which has become a de facto situation. " "The Egyptian administration is currently preparing its papers for the third filling, in order to obtain an agreement before it," she added.

The sources revealed what they considered a "new shock" regarding the position of Gulf countries in support of the Egyptian administration, explaining that indirect Gulf pressures, oUntil now, I have been accused of conceding Cairo to the status quo before Ethiopia, regarding the second filling. And she said, "Cairo is not ready at the present time for economic crises, or sanctions, as a result of any military action in light of Gulf financial dues for Cairo during the next few months." The sources pointed out that "the initial consultations by Egypt with Kuwait, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia regarding the renewal of deposits estimated at $ 12.5 billion with the Central Bank of Egypt are faltering." Or, at least, postponing its due installments, which put the Egyptian administration in a great dilemma, which may entail political and regional concessions, among which will undoubtedly be the dam crisis and the Gulf interests related to it. And she said "



Western sources said, "The concerns raised by Cairo regarding what it might be exposed to, as a result of the second filling, were not fully convincing to the international actors, in exchange for the clarifications provided by Addis Ababa regarding its consideration of the concerns of the two downstream countries , Egypt and Sudan, in this regard," And Cairo's water needs were not affected during the second filling. " "Addis Ababa made it clear that what will arrive in Egypt during the new flood season, despite the second filling, may be more than normal flows at this time of the year, given the expectations of increased rainfall during the current season," she added.

The sources revealed that "there is a lack of conviction at the present time with the Egyptian position, in contrast to a large western conviction with the integrated Ethiopian file, which had previously identified the second filling as a construction step, not part of the actual operation of the dam." She said, "There is no international sympathy with the Egyptian administration regarding the dam file crisis, unlike what the Egyptian media propagates." Ethiopia was confirming that Egypt will not be affected during it, which is what really happened. "


Sources: The Egyptian administration is preparing its papers for the third filling

The sources said that Cairo surveyed the position of the major powers before addressing the Security Council in the coming days, after the military solution almost completely stepped down, in light of new developments related to the Egyptian partner in Khartoum, especially after the success of the President of the Government of Sudan, Abdullah Hamdok, in giving priority to the position of the civil forces by rejecting the option. Al-Askari and Egypt's participation in military solutions, because Sudan is not obliged to this solution, given the existence of other, more effective solutions for Khartoum, and avoiding international crises.

This comes at a time when the spokesman for the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation, Muhammad Ghanem, said a few days ago that all scenarios that may occur in the dam crisis were prepared, according to the worst conditions, by managing a strong system for every drop of water, adding, in press statements, "We have 4 Major plans to mitigate the effects of any potential crisis. " Finally, Ethiopia proceeded to implement its plans, opening the upper gates of the dam at a level of 540, with the aim of reducing the water level, in preparation for concrete pouring and raising the dam to a level that could reach 595 meters in preparation for the start of the second filling of the dam lake.

For its part, the British Foreign Office, in a written response to a question from a Lord from the British-Egyptian group, urged all parties involved in the dispute over the Renaissance Dam to reach an agreement on filling and operating the dam. She said, "The British government supports the efforts of the African UnionTo help reach an agreement and ensure that water resources are managed in a way that ensures their long-term sustainable use for all parties.

”The Egyptian ambassador to Washington, Moataz Zahran, confirmed, in an article he published in the American Foreign Policy magazine a few days ago, that the United States alone possesses The necessary influence to encourage Ethiopia to engage in good faith in negotiations on the Renaissance Dam, and to refrain from unilateral measures.

Ina related context, the Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Mohamed Abdel-Ati said, during a participation in the opening session of the hypothetical "Climate Dialogue" forum yesterday, that Egypt "It faces major challenges in the field of water, foremost among which are the unilateral measures taken by the Ethiopian side regarding the Renaissance Dam, which increase the size of the challenges Egypt faces in the field of water, in addition to the fact that 97 percent of renewable water resources come from outside the borders." .

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