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Hawzen
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Hawzen » 10 Jan 2022, 20:29

info wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 08:14
Many Ethiopians, including myself, were taken by surprise when they heard the release of TPLF officials such as Sebehat Nega & co. My friends in Addis Ababa told me that everybody is depressed, angry and think this is a mockery of justice. The same feeling is shared by many diasporas that are currently in Ethiopia following the invitation of the PM.

Even though we are all in the dark and could not tell what really is happening but we can try to connect the dots by analyzing some hints that may give us a better picture to understand why the TPLF officials were released.

In my view, the release of TPLF officials and the huge risk PM Abiy is willing to take in the process is a clear indication that not only there has been a serious backdoor negotiation going on between the federal government and TPLF but a deal has already been struck.

What are the clues/dots that point to a possible negotiation/deal between PP and TPLF and what is in the deal?
  • Few days ago, opposition parties in Tigray seem to have got leaked information about the ongoing negotiation between the federal government and TPLF. They were alarmed that TPLF alone is negotiating without including them. They issued a statement demanding they also should be part of the ongoing negotiation.
  • Debretsion on his recent CNN interview talked about "formalization of the secession of hostilities" indicating to an already existing informal negotiation/deal.
  • The high risk the federal government is taking to release TPLF officials Sebehat Nega & Co. This is almost unthinkable without a deal with TPLF. The federal government would have never risked so much just to show some mercy. This is a clear indication that a deal has been struck.
  • PM pouring highly exaggerated military promotions the day after the release of TPLF officials. The timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotions may indicate the PMs attempt to appease the military. But why does he need to appease the military unless there is something that he did or is doing that may not sit well with the military? It looks like he fears some in the military may not be happy about his backdoor negotiation with the TPLF. After all, the war started because of the massacre of ENDF soldiers in Tigray.
  • Getachew Reda today accused the Eritrean president of "sabotaging all peacemaking efforts", indicating there is already some kind of peacemaking effort going on.
  • Getachew Reda in one of his interviews said that the AU mediator Obasanjo asked TPLF to accept Wolkait aka "western Tigray" as part of Gonder just like it was prior to 1991. If true, this gives us a clue what one of the demands of the federal government look like. It seems one of the demands of the federal government is that TPLF accepts that it can't administer Wolkait.
  • In his latest letter to the UN, Debretsion claimed to withdraw his forces from Amhara and Afar and to be ready for peace despite the fact that "western Tigray was still occupied". It seems that he is indirectly saying that TPLF is ready for negotiations and peace process even if Wolkait aka "western Tigray" is not under his administration.

We really don't know for sure what is in the deal but from all the hints and dots we can try to guess what the deal may include.
In my view, the deal seem to include the following:
  • TPLF accepts it can't administer Welkait ("western Tigray") at least until the case is reviewed by the border commission.
  • Amhara region on the other hand accepts Raya waja/azebo ("southern Tigray") to stay in and administered by Tigray. We are hearing from unconfirmed reports that most of ENDF and Amhara special forces have already left or are leaving "southern Tigray" (Alamata, Waja etc.). In my view it is a matter of time until TPLF completely controls the area up to the "official" Amhara-Tigray border.
  • The federal government releases TPLF officials since this was one of the constant demands of TPLF.
  • The federal government also accepts TPLF to administer Tigray. The deal most likely also include the delivery of aid, the resumption of services such as telecom, banking and electricity and may also include indirect budget to Tigray.
The deal, if true, will be hard sell for both PM Abiy/PP and TPLF. Both will have a hard time selling the deal for their supporters. They both will face some kind of resistance. TPLF started the war, sacrificed so much just to end up with less than what it had started. This is a hard sell. PM Abiy also has to do hard selling. Accepting TPLF to administer Tigray after so much sacrifice and destruction will not be an easy task. Both will be under intense pressure in the coming weeks and months. We may also see a leadership/party split in both camps.

In my view there is no best deal in this crisis. Those who reject the negotiation/the deal (from both sides) do not seem to come up with a better alternative other than to continue the war. Continuing the war is no more possible for both the federal government and TPLF. PM Abiy has a vision that is based on economic transformation. He is not like Mengistu that makes war the center of his job. To fulfill his vision, he needs economic development and prosperity. For this purpose he has no other alternative other than to end the war an soon as possible. It seems he is not ready to sacrifice his vision and stuck in the war forever.

TPLF on the other had does not have the resources to wage a conventional war for long. It's out of resources, military supplies and most likely also human resources. The only possibility to continue the war for TPLF is to switch to a guerrilla war of insurgency but that can only work if ENDF was to settle in Tigray, otherwise it has very low chance of success and only cost Tigray for years. TPLF knows it can't force the federal government with insurgency and it can't win a conventional war.

As I said, this is not the best deal as there is no best deal in this crises but at least if this helps to stop the war, I'm ready to accept it. Of course we all know this is can only postpone the war for a later time if things are not settled politically.
Brother info,

Great analysis as always. If things end up as you have tried to connect the dots, here are the winners and losers?

Losers:

1. The people of Tigray and the people Afar lost badly. The people of Afar just proved that they are undoubtedly warriors!!!

2. The Government of Ethiopia led by Dr. Abby lost and history will remember his government as a coward loser.

3. The people of Ethiopia in general lost ( I would not put the people of Amhara under this category though simply because they reclaimed their historical fertile land. Now, the people of Amhara share common border with the people of Eritrea) Congratulations our neighbor!!!


Winners:

1. Obviously, the people of Amhara have reclaimed their historical fertile land and that they are clearly winners.
2. TPLF just as a group of individuals will also be a winner as well since they care only about themselves not about the people of Tigray and their Tigray land..



The question is that what is going to happen to the title TPLF acquired..
Terrorist????

Dedebit is always dedeb
R.I.P Abay Tigray and TPLF terrorist group


sarcasm
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by sarcasm » 10 Jan 2022, 21:18

Roha wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 16:32
Assuming, the dots are "connected" partly correct as above, the question is that why did the Tigrayan TPLF leadership start such a futile and destructive war which has put Tigray in the worst political, economic, territorial and military situation?
Did the Tigrayan TPLF leadership really start the war? I think considering the publicly available information, we should be able to tell the difference between the pretext for the war and having a good understanding of the war. Most people quote Sekuture to support PM Abiy's narrative of the start of the war.

But Sekuture said that the preemptive strike is a response to imminent attack. The dictionary definition of imminent is "about to happen, ready to take place."

So what what was imminent then? Please watch the below 1 min video clip. The military leader was saying, " በ24 (1 day before Tigray's preemptive strike) ታንኮቻችን ዝግጁ እንዲሆኑ አድርገናል። ጥይት እንዲጭኑ ኣድርገናል (we loaded our tanks!) ። በየሻለቃው ቦታ ቦታ እንዲይዙ ኣድርገናል። የኛ ለምንላቸው ሰዎችንም ነግረናቿል። ሁኔታ ከተፈተጠረ ምን ማድረግ እንዳለባቸው ጥሩ ትስስር ፈጥረን ነበር። እዛ ውየ ነው የመጣሁት። ያው ቀድመናቸዋል።

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What do we know now about what happened in Tigray in November 2020?



Hopefully, the above info will help us to have a broader understanding of what has happened and what is happening, I think.
Last edited by sarcasm on 10 Jan 2022, 21:34, edited 3 times in total.

sarcasm
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by sarcasm » 10 Jan 2022, 21:30

TDF ሃንደበትነቱ እንተዝምጠል'ከ?

ኣብ ወታሃደራዊ ስርሒት 90% ናይ ዓወትካን ስዕረትካን ምስጢር ኣብ ሃንደበትነት እዩ ዝውሰን።ሃንደበትነቱ ዝተቐደመ ሓይሊ ከኣ ናይ ዘመናት ስዕረት ውን ክከናነብ ይኽእል እዩ።

ናብ ምስጢር ዓወት TDF ምስ እንምለስ እታ ዕለት 04/11/2020 ዝወሰዳ ንሰሜን እዝ ናይ ምቁጽጻር ስጉምቲ ህዝቢ ትግራይ ካብ ናይ ዘመናት ስዕረት ዘድሓነት ውሳኒት ናይ ሃንደበትነት ካልኢት እያ።

TDF ሃንደበትነቱ እንተዝምንጠል'ከ ዝብል ሕቶ ምስ እንርኢ ከኣ (The game is determined by the beginning) ስለዝኾነ እታ ኢሳያስ ዝበላ game over ሎሚ ማዓልቲ መጀምርታ ዓመት ናይቲ ንዘመናት ርእሱ ከድንን ዝተፈርደ ህዝቢ ትግራይ ኮይና ብኣንጻሩብ ከኣ ዕለተ ጽምብል ናይቶም game start ከይተቖጻጸሩ game over ዝበሉ ሓይልታት ምኾነት።

እቲ ብኢሳያስ ዝምራሕ ዝነበረ game ከኣ ሃንደበትነቱ ብሓልታት ብልጽግናን ሻዕብያን ተወሲዱ እንተዝዝነብር ኣብ ትግራይ ዝባሃል ምድሪ ካብ ደብረጽዮን ጀሚርካ ክሳብ ኣማሓዳሪ ናይ ሓንቲ ጣብያ ዘለዉ ኣርካናት ሕብረትርሰብ ኣጽኒቶም ንህዝቢ ትግራይ ናብ ናይ ዘመናት ርእሲ ምድናን ዘመን ክድርብይዎ ስለዝወሰኑ እዩ over ቅድሚ start ዝተራኦም።

እሞ እምባኣር ዕለት 04/11/2020 ሃንደበትነት TDF ተመንጢሉ እንተዝነብር ምስዚ ሕጂ ኣብ ትግራይ ወሪዱ ዘሎ በደል ክመዛዘን ከሎ ምስቲ ክኽሰት ዝነበሮ ስዕረት ኣነጻጺርካ ክገልጾ ዝኽእል ኣሃዝ ይኹን ቃል ውን ኣይምተረኽበን።
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info
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by info » 11 Jan 2022, 05:35

Thinking back, the sequence of events and the ultimate acceptance by TPLF of the offer made by PM could be as follows:
  • While TPLF was in Wollo and nearing northern Showa, the AU mediator Obasanjo went to Mekele and presented PM Abiy's offer for peace. We know now for sure that the federal government demanded among others two main points. TPLF leaves Amahra and Afar regions and accepts Wolkait will be part of Gonder. This offer was hinted by both Getachew Reda and also PP spokesperson Zadig Abraha. Zadig Abraha at that time confirmed that Government will negotiate if TPLF withdraws from Amhara/Afar regions and Getachew Reda told us the federal government demanded Wolkait to be administrated by Gonder.
  • TPLF rejected the offer and continued the war hopping to reach Addis Ababa and remove PM Abiy from power.
  • ENDF and Ethiopian forces started a counter offensive and while the offensive was going, PM Abiy from battlefield spoke on the media and called the driving out of TPLF forces from Amhara and Afar regions the first phase of the operation. He hinted that there will be a second phase and is in preparation. Many thought the second phase could be marching to Mekele.
  • PP officials including high ranking military officers were talking about marching to Mekele. General Berhanu Jula on camera told soldiers that their next mission was to march to Mekele. General Bacha Debele told to his troops that they will celebrate the final victory in Mekele. It was clear ENDF was ordered to prepare to march to Mekele.
  • ENDF drives TDF out of Amhara and Afar regions and started marching to "Southern Tigray" (Waja, Alamata) and also nearing to Abergele.
  • Then all of a sudden ENDF was ordered to stop its advances into Tigray. It seems that is the time when TPLF accepted the offer made by PM Abiy. TPLF was telling its supporters it was withdrawing to facilitate peace and is not defeated and the humiliation that could come by ENDF soon marching to Mekele was simply too much for TPLF and it has to accept the offer. It seems the release of Sebehat Nega & co. is only to help TPLF save face. The imminent threat of ENDF marching to Mekele did the trick!
  • Tigray opposition somehow got leaked information that TPLF accepted PM's offer and cried foul.
PM Abiy has no interest to go to Tigray and administer the mess there. He is happy he found someone to do the "dirty" job.
Last edited by info on 11 Jan 2022, 08:56, edited 1 time in total.

info
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by info » 11 Jan 2022, 08:00

PM Advisor Daniel Kebret hints a possible economic reward PM Abiy got from the west in return for the deal with TPLF. If true, this is even better :lol:

https://www.facebook.com/tsilat23/posts ... 1480828923
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Sabur
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by Sabur » 11 Jan 2022, 08:22


Quite Interesting.

Did Prime Minster Aby Ahmed blink when the rag tag TPLF entered Showa Robit and nearing Debre Berhan, and he offered TPLF a peace deal keeping the Pre-War Tigray Region - both Wolkait and Alamata Region under Tigray Administration?

It is rumored that it is during this time that the US bluntly told PM Aby to leave Addis Ababa and that the US would provide a safe passage for him and his family.

It is also during this time that the coward and crying Tsadkan openly stated that TPLF will never sit down to negotiate since there is no power in Addis to Negotiate with.

Keep in mind the US State Department propaganda machinery through various medias tried to terrorize the people of Ethiopia by disseminating "Foreign embassies and foreigners were told to evacuate Addis and Ethiopia because of the looming collapse of the Ethiopian government to control Addis"

Can you also elaborate who is going to do the dirty job and what is the dirty job ? Transparency needed.

info wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 05:35
PM Abiy has no interest to go to Tigray and administer the mess there. He is happy he found someone to do the "dirty" job.

.


info wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 05:35
Thinking back, the sequence of events and the ultimate acceptance by TPLF of the offer made by PM could be as follows:
  • While TPLF was in Wollo and nearing northern Showa, the AU mediator Obasanjo went to Mekele and presented PM Abiy's offer for peace. We know now for sure that the federal government demanded among others two main points. TPLF leaves Amahra and Afar regions and accepts Wolkait will not be administered by Tigray. This offer was hinted by both Getachew Reda and also PP spokesperson Zadig Abraha. Zadig Abraha at that time confirmed that Government will negotiate if TPLF withdraws from Amhara/Afar regions and Getachew Reda told us the federal government demanded Wolkait to be administrated by Gonder.
  • TPLF rejected the offer and continued the war hopping to reach Addis Ababa and remove PM Abiy from power.
  • ENDF and Ethiopian forces started a counter offensive and while the offensive was going, PM Abiy from battlefield spoke on the media and called the driving out of TPLF forces from Amhara and Afar regions the first phase of the operation. He hinted that there will be a second phase and is in preparation. Many thought the second phase could be marching to Mekele.
  • PP officials including high ranking military officers were talking about marching to Mekele. General Berhanu Jula on camera told soldiers that their next mission was to march to Mekele. General Bacha Debele told to his troops that they will celebrate the final victory in Mekele. It was clear ENDF was ordered to prepare to march to Mekele.
  • ENDF drives TDF out of Amhara and Afar regions and started marching to "Southern Tigray" (Waja, Alamata) and also nearing to Abergele.
  • Then all of a sudden ENDF was ordered to stop its advances into Tigray. It seems that is the time when TPLF accepted the offer made by PM Abiy. TPLF was telling its supporters it was withdrawing to facilitate peace and is not defeated and the humiliation that could come by ENDF soon marching to Mekele was simply too much for TPLF and it has to accept the offer. It seems the release of Sebehat Nega & co. is only to help TPLF save face. The imminent threat of ENDF marching to Mekele did the trick!
  • Tigray opposition somehow got leaked information that TPLF accepted PM's offer and cried foul.
PM Abiy has no interest to go to Tigray and administer the mess there. He is happy he found someone to do the "dirty" job.

info
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by info » 11 Jan 2022, 08:46

Sabur, read again. Getachew Reda while TPLF was in Wollo and nearing Showa said on Tigray/Woyane TV that Obasanjo urged them to accept Wolkait as part of Gonder. So, it seems PM Abiy did not offer them Wolkait but it seems he offered them to let them rule Tigray, release TPLF officials, may be he will provide them budget and other services if they withdraw from Amhara and Afar regions and accept Wolkait as part of Gonder. Of course TPLF rejected hoping to soon remove Abiy from power.

You are absolutely right in describing how the US was terrorizing the people. The problem with the CIA is that for more than 3 decades their main source of information seem to be the TPLF and the Biden Administration believed TPLF's assessment that TDF can indeed enter Addis Ababa and that PM Abiy's government was finished. From how feltman at that time talked, the US was very confident that TDF will enter to Addis and wanted to accelerate the process by pushing Abiy into exile. In my view exactly this pushing into exile triggered Abiy to go to the battle field to show the US what he really is able to do.

The confidence of the US on TDF and its reaction during this period tells me that CIA has not yet enough informants inside the Abiy government and had no clue what PM Abiy was preparing. CIA heavenly relied on TPLF for information and completely overlooked/ignored the fact that PM Abiy was buying modern weapons, raising and training an army of over a million men. It seems CIA believed what TPLF was feeding them that no one wants to fight for Abiy and it is over for ENDF etc.

Now, the US understands it must work with PM Abiy if it wants to have any influence in the HOA. I expect CIA to try to make as many friends inside the Abiy government to reduce their reliance on TPLF. A permanent shift from TPLF to Abiy is on the way in my view.
Sabur wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 08:22

Quite Interesting and excellent summarized scenarios.

Did Prime Minster Aby Ahmed blink when the rag tag TPLF entered Showa Robit and nearing Debre Berhan, and he offered TPLF a peace deal keeping the Pre-War Tigray Region - both Wolkait and Alamata Region under Tigray Administration?

It is rumored that it is during this is time that the US bluntly told PM Aby to leave Addis Ababa and that the US would provide a safe passage for him and his family.

It is also during this time that the coward and crying Tsadkan openly stated that TPLF will never sit down to negotiate since there in no power in Addis to Negotiate with.

Keep in mind the US State Department propaganda machines through medias tried to terrorize the people of Ethiopia by disseminating "Foreign embassies and foreigners were told to evacuate Addis and Ethiopia because of the looming collapse of the Ethiopian government to control Addis".


info wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 05:35
Thinking back, the sequence of events and the ultimate acceptance by TPLF of the offer made by PM could be as follows:
  • While TPLF was in Wollo and nearing northern Showa, the AU mediator Obasanjo went to Mekele and presented PM Abiy's offer for peace. We know now for sure that the federal government demanded among others two main points. TPLF leaves Amahra and Afar regions and accepts Wolkait will not be administered by Tigray. This offer was hinted by both Getachew Reda and also PP spokesperson Zadig Abraha. Zadig Abraha at that time confirmed that Government will negotiate if TPLF withdraws from Amhara/Afar regions and Getachew Reda told us the federal government demanded Wolkait to be administrated by Gonder.
  • TPLF rejected the offer and continued the war hopping to reach Addis Ababa and remove PM Abiy from power.
  • ENDF and Ethiopian forces started a counter offensive and while the offensive was going, PM Abiy from battlefield spoke on the media and called the driving out of TPLF forces from Amhara and Afar regions the first phase of the operation. He hinted that there will be a second phase and is in preparation. Many thought the second phase could be marching to Mekele.
  • PP officials including high ranking military officers were talking about marching to Mekele. General Berhanu Jula on camera told soldiers that their next mission was to march to Mekele. General Bacha Debele told to his troops that they will celebrate the final victory in Mekele. It was clear ENDF was ordered to prepare to march to Mekele.
  • ENDF drives TDF out of Amhara and Afar regions and started marching to "Southern Tigray" (Waja, Alamata) and also nearing to Abergele.
  • Then all of a sudden ENDF was ordered to stop its advances into Tigray. It seems that is the time when TPLF accepted the offer made by PM Abiy. TPLF was telling its supporters it was withdrawing to facilitate peace and is not defeated and the humiliation that could come by ENDF soon marching to Mekele was simply too much for TPLF and it has to accept the offer. It seems the release of Sebehat Nega & co. is only to help TPLF save face. The imminent threat of ENDF marching to Mekele did the trick!
  • Tigray opposition somehow got leaked information that TPLF accepted PM's offer and cried foul.
PM Abiy has no interest to go to Tigray and administer the mess there. He is happy he found someone to do the "dirty" job.

Abe Abraham
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by Abe Abraham » 11 Jan 2022, 09:00

  • Do you really need informants inside or outside to know what was going on at that time in Ethiopia ? It was clear that the Junta had no ability to enter Addis Abeba. Language helps for a spy to sense what is happening in a country. In my personal case Arabic helps me to understand the Arab world but when things are obvious you can not hide behind the lack of knowledge of a certain language and culture to do your job.


info wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 08:46
Sabur, read again. Getachew Reda while TPLF was in Wollo and nearing Showa said on Tigray/Woyane TV that Obasanjo urged them to accept Wolkait as part of Gonder. So, it seems PM Abiy did not offer them Wolkait but it seems he offered them to let them rule Tigray, release TPLF officials, may be he will provide them budget and other services if they withdraw from Amhara and Afar regions and accept Wolkait as part of Gonder. Of course TPLF rejected hoping to soon remove Abiy from power.

You are absolutely right in describing how the US was terrorizing the people. The problem with the CIA is that for more than 3 decades their main source of information seem to be the TPLF and the Biden Administration believed TPLF's assessment that TDF can indeed enter Addis Ababa and that PM Abiy's government was finished. From how feltman at that time talked, the US was very confident that TDF will enter to Addis and wanted to accelerate the process by pushing Abiy into exile. In my view exactly this pushing into exile triggered Abiy to go to the battle field to show the US what he really is able to do.

The confidence of the US and its reaction during this period tells me that CIA has not yet enough informants inside the Abiy government and had no clue what PM Abiy was preparing. CIA heavenly relied on TPLF for information and completely overlooked/ignored the fact that PM Abiy was buying modern weapons, raising and training an army of over a million men. It seems CIA believed what TPLF was feeding them that no one wants to fight for Abiy and it is over for ENDF etc.

Now, the US understands it must work with PM Abiy if it wants to have any influence in the HOA. I expect CIA to try to make as much friends inside the Abiy government to reduce their reliance on TPLF.
Sabur wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 08:22

Quite Interesting and excellent summarized scenarios.

Did Prime Minster Aby Ahmed blink when the rag tag TPLF entered Showa Robit and nearing Debre Berhan, and he offered TPLF a peace deal keeping the Pre-War Tigray Region - both Wolkait and Alamata Region under Tigray Administration?

It is rumored that it is during this is time that the US bluntly told PM Aby to leave Addis Ababa and that the US would provide a safe passage for him and his family.

It is also during this time that the coward and crying Tsadkan openly stated that TPLF will never sit down to negotiate since there in no power in Addis to Negotiate with.

Keep in mind the US State Department propaganda machines through medias tried to terrorize the people of Ethiopia by disseminating "Foreign embassies and foreigners were told to evacuate Addis and Ethiopia because of the looming collapse of the Ethiopian government to control Addis".


info wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 05:35
Thinking back, the sequence of events and the ultimate acceptance by TPLF of the offer made by PM could be as follows:
  • While TPLF was in Wollo and nearing northern Showa, the AU mediator Obasanjo went to Mekele and presented PM Abiy's offer for peace. We know now for sure that the federal government demanded among others two main points. TPLF leaves Amahra and Afar regions and accepts Wolkait will not be administered by Tigray. This offer was hinted by both Getachew Reda and also PP spokesperson Zadig Abraha. Zadig Abraha at that time confirmed that Government will negotiate if TPLF withdraws from Amhara/Afar regions and Getachew Reda told us the federal government demanded Wolkait to be administrated by Gonder.
  • TPLF rejected the offer and continued the war hopping to reach Addis Ababa and remove PM Abiy from power.
  • ENDF and Ethiopian forces started a counter offensive and while the offensive was going, PM Abiy from battlefield spoke on the media and called the driving out of TPLF forces from Amhara and Afar regions the first phase of the operation. He hinted that there will be a second phase and is in preparation. Many thought the second phase could be marching to Mekele.
  • PP officials including high ranking military officers were talking about marching to Mekele. General Berhanu Jula on camera told soldiers that their next mission was to march to Mekele. General Bacha Debele told to his troops that they will celebrate the final victory in Mekele. It was clear ENDF was ordered to prepare to march to Mekele.
  • ENDF drives TDF out of Amhara and Afar regions and started marching to "Southern Tigray" (Waja, Alamata) and also nearing to Abergele.
  • Then all of a sudden ENDF was ordered to stop its advances into Tigray. It seems that is the time when TPLF accepted the offer made by PM Abiy. TPLF was telling its supporters it was withdrawing to facilitate peace and is not defeated and the humiliation that could come by ENDF soon marching to Mekele was simply too much for TPLF and it has to accept the offer. It seems the release of Sebehat Nega & co. is only to help TPLF save face. The imminent threat of ENDF marching to Mekele did the trick!
  • Tigray opposition somehow got leaked information that TPLF accepted PM's offer and cried foul.
PM Abiy has no interest to go to Tigray and administer the mess there. He is happy he found someone to do the "dirty" job.

Right
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by Right » 11 Jan 2022, 11:36

Who is going to do the dirty job and what is the dirty job?
Please answer.

Billions of dollars at the expense of innocent Amharas and Afaris? A dollar that will be transferred to the account of PP thieves.

king Abiye Ahmed is naked. The TPLF will play him like a toy. He doesn’t know what he is doing.
All these dirty works: killing Eng. Simignew, the massacre of Amahara leaders, the Gamo massacre, the Amahara people massacre, theGideon and Benashengol - the truth will come out.

DefendTheTruth
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by DefendTheTruth » 12 Jan 2022, 15:32

Abe Abraham wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 17:15

They are wanted by the Ethiopian government,people and PMAA.
I think PMAA is a strategist, he said he released them but also said in the same token his eyes are still on them, watching them. Could you say that they are indeed free?

እዛ አስቀምጬ ከምቀልባቻዉ፣ ለቅቄያቸዉ ትንሽ ትርፍ ብሰበስብባቻዉ ብሎ አስቦ ይመስለኛል።

Abe Abraham
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Posts: 11599
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Abe Abraham » 12 Jan 2022, 19:05

DefendTheTruth wrote:
12 Jan 2022, 15:32
Abe Abraham wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 17:15

They are wanted by the Ethiopian government,people and PMAA.
I think PMAA is a strategist, he said he released them but also said in the same token his eyes are still on them, watching them. Could you say that they are indeed free?

እዛ አስቀምጬ ከምቀልባቻዉ፣ ለቅቄያቸዉ ትንሽ ትርፍ ብሰበስብባቻዉ ብሎ አስቦ ይመስለኛል።
DefendTheTruth,


  • We - I , you and others - always support a wise approach as long as it doesn't lead tomorrow to miscalculations and other new problems. If the Americans determine and dictate the political system and policy in Ethiopia then in the long run there will be trouble in the country. Chris Coons is demanding TPLF be returned to power in Addis. That could lead to violence in the future. The Americans could not deal with chaos and violence. They are used to creating bloodshed and run away like in Afghanistan. Don't forget the intention of the Americans in Afghanistan was " state-building and setting up democracy and creating stability ". The end result of their violent intervention is totally different. It is not wise to completely trust the Americans. Complete trust means that they lead and you do not lead yourself. If David Copperfield comes tomorrow with his bags of viagra and demands that he sleep with one of the wives of the Ethiopian officials someone should say : upto here but no further.

    Remember this : we are talking here as a family.



Dawi
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Dawi » 12 Jan 2022, 23:12

Abe Abraham wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 17:02
Roha wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 16:32
Assuming, the dots are "connected" partly correct as above, the question is that why did the Tigrayan TPLF leadership start such a futile and destructive war which has put Tigray in the worst political, economic, territorial and military situation? Tigray is now set back about 20 years in the past and this slide will get worse. Who will take responsibility for this? Tigrayans need to ask very hard questions because the ordinary Tigrayan has benefited nothing. A single totalitarian leader can make mistakes in military adventures but how can a group of experienced veteran Tigrayan political leaders that includes such Seyoum Mesfin, Sibhat Nega, Abay Woldu, Abay Tsehaye, Tsadkan W Tensae, wedi Werede ... mess it up.
The Tigrayans could have received more than this without firing a single shot.

This war for Tigrayans was the march of folly.

Few days ago, I posted -
The 1991 to 2020 of Tigrayan hegemony on Ethiopian politics is over. The sun is already setting down on Tigray.
For a minority ethnic group representing about 5% of Ethiopia's 115 million people, Tigrayans had a 28 years of everything in Ethiopia.
That Tigrayan era is over, and unless a young generation of Tigrayans with new ideas emerge in TDF's leadership, the downhill march to poverty, wars, suffering, starvation and the degradation of Tigrayans will accelerate. What Tigrayans need now is not war, it is rather new ideas that can replace the old and tattered TPLF politics.
Roha,

You put it succinctly : This war for Tigrayans was the march of folly.
Abe,

It depends how you see it; Look at the bright side. Ok?

If we look at it differently, the "sun" is only setting on the "Tigrean chauvinists"; for others it can become the beginning to a much better and greater future. Let me explain.

All they've to do is, from this day forward, Tigreans can revive the imagination of their ancestors who created the great nation, Ethiopia that is; honoring thy father and mother who created Ethiopia is an honorable thing to do; one should start raising its flag high and become a "unionist extraordinaire" in par with their Amhara and other Ethiopianists. 8)

That way, they'll be the owners of all land. Wolkait plus as Ethiopian citizens under its sky; so, dropping "greater tigrai" folly is all they need to do to be back in business; Abiy offering them EFFORT and other stolen wealth is an icing on the cake! It doesn't matter to us, as long as they pay the bank loans and pay taxes. Some capitalist is going to own it anyway; so if it makes Tsadkan happy, and stop the stupid war, giving it back is worthwhile to Abiy and the rest of us who have some common sense.

Cheers!

DefendTheTruth
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Posts: 6270
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by DefendTheTruth » 13 Jan 2022, 16:13

Abe Abraham wrote:
12 Jan 2022, 19:05
DefendTheTruth wrote:
12 Jan 2022, 15:32
Abe Abraham wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 17:15

They are wanted by the Ethiopian government,people and PMAA.
I think PMAA is a strategist, he said he released them but also said in the same token his eyes are still on them, watching them. Could you say that they are indeed free?

እዛ አስቀምጬ ከምቀልባቻዉ፣ ለቅቄያቸዉ ትንሽ ትርፍ ብሰበስብባቻዉ ብሎ አስቦ ይመስለኛል።
DefendTheTruth,


  • We - I , you and others - always support a wise approach as long as it doesn't lead tomorrow to miscalculations and other new problems. If the Americans determine and dictate the political system and policy in Ethiopia then in the long run there will be trouble in the country. Chris Coons is demanding TPLF be returned to power in Addis. That could lead to violence in the future. The Americans could not deal with chaos and violence. They are used to creating bloodshed and run away like in Afghanistan. Don't forget the intention of the Americans in Afghanistan was " state-building and setting up democracy and creating stability ". The end result of their violent intervention is totally different. It is not wise to completely trust the Americans. Complete trust means that they lead and you do not lead yourself. If David Copperfield comes tomorrow with his bags of viagra and demands that he sleep with one of the wives of the Ethiopian officials someone should say : upto here but no further.

    Remember this : we are talking here as a family.


Abe Abraham,
I think no one with a right mind would disagree with what you said here. We all wish to determine our destiny on our own, even at an individual level.

If there is a compromise on this key issue, then no one has deserved to claim a leadership role, people deserve to have better. But tbat sign is not easy to discern at this moment.

The gain I talked about could be seen, for example, in the following video, Ato Eskinder Nega himself seems to have drawn his lesson in that regard.


Abe Abraham
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Posts: 11599
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Abe Abraham » 13 Jan 2022, 16:19

Dawi wrote:
12 Jan 2022, 23:12
Abe Abraham wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 17:02
Roha wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 16:32
Assuming, the dots are "connected" partly correct as above, the question is that why did the Tigrayan TPLF leadership start such a futile and destructive war which has put Tigray in the worst political, economic, territorial and military situation? Tigray is now set back about 20 years in the past and this slide will get worse. Who will take responsibility for this? Tigrayans need to ask very hard questions because the ordinary Tigrayan has benefited nothing. A single totalitarian leader can make mistakes in military adventures but how can a group of experienced veteran Tigrayan political leaders that includes such Seyoum Mesfin, Sibhat Nega, Abay Woldu, Abay Tsehaye, Tsadkan W Tensae, wedi Werede ... mess it up.
The Tigrayans could have received more than this without firing a single shot.

This war for Tigrayans was the march of folly.

Few days ago, I posted -
The 1991 to 2020 of Tigrayan hegemony on Ethiopian politics is over. The sun is already setting down on Tigray.
For a minority ethnic group representing about 5% of Ethiopia's 115 million people, Tigrayans had a 28 years of everything in Ethiopia.
That Tigrayan era is over, and unless a young generation of Tigrayans with new ideas emerge in TDF's leadership, the downhill march to poverty, wars, suffering, starvation and the degradation of Tigrayans will accelerate. What Tigrayans need now is not war, it is rather new ideas that can replace the old and tattered TPLF politics.
Roha,

You put it succinctly : This war for Tigrayans was the march of folly.
Abe,

It depends how you see it; Look at the bright side. Ok?

If we look at it differently, the "sun" is only setting on the "Tigrean chauvinists"; for others it can become the beginning to a much better and greater future. Let me explain.

All they've to do is, from this day forward, Tigreans can revive the imagination of their ancestors who created the great nation, Ethiopia that is; honoring thy father and mother who created Ethiopia is an honorable thing to do; one should start raising its flag high and become a "unionist extraordinaire" in par with their Amhara and other Ethiopianists. 8)

That way, they'll be the owners of all land. Wolkait plus as Ethiopian citizens under its sky; so, dropping "greater tigrai" folly is all they need to do to be back in business; Abiy offering them EFFORT and other stolen wealth is an icing on the cake! It doesn't matter to us, as long as they pay the bank loans and pay taxes. Some capitalist is going to own it anyway; so if it makes Tsadkan happy, and stop the stupid war, giving it back is worthwhile to Abiy and the rest of us who have some common sense.

Cheers!
Dawi,

Tigrayans are insecure. You can not divide them into chauvinists and others. The future of Tigray is the concern of all of them. They would like to stay within Ethiopia while maintaining a territory that could in the future become a state if Ethiopia were to fall apart as they see it. There is no true Ethiopian identity in Tigray. You have to learn the የወፎች ቋንቋ :lol: to study and know the Tigrayan psyche.

info
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Posts: 3589
Joined: 05 Dec 2014, 11:33

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by info » 10 Feb 2022, 08:03

By now there is no doubt that there is at least an ongoing negotiation. As Getachew Reda already told us (see video below), the federal government demanded TPLF accepts Wolkait as part of Gonder as it used to be under ክፍለ ሃገር. But if TPLF accepts this offer, then TPLF may have also requested that Tigray's territory too be restored to what it used to be under ክፍለ ሃገር as Getachew already indicated (see video below). This means Tigray gets the northern part (Zone 2) of Afar as it was under ክፍለ ሃገር. You may remember that there was no region called Afar ክፍለ ሃገር but the current Afar state was part of Tigray and Wollo.

It remains to be seen whether the recent expansion of TPLF into northern Afar region (Zone 2) is part of the deal or not. The reluctant and slow response from the federal Government even to acknowledge TPLF's invasion of northern Afar may indicate that Tigray and Gonder getting back their ክፍለ ሃገር territories may be part of the negotiation.

Note that we are here just trying to connect the dots and purely speculating. And as such I'm not analyzing the impact of such a deal (if there is any) on the Afar people and as a consequence on the wider Ethiopian landscape. So we should refrain from the blame game on pure speculations. We could be completely wrong or the negotiation could collapse and ENDF may soon liberate all Afar territories.

One thing is for sure though. The current Kilil borders are not sustainable as they are a source of wars and displacements. Ethiopia needs an adjustment that fairly reflects the diversity of its people and minorities. So any territorial deal between the federal government and TPLF should only be considered as temporary until an all inclusive and fair agreement between all stakeholders is reached.




ZEMEN
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Posts: 1909
Joined: 27 Jun 2011, 14:37

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by ZEMEN » 10 Feb 2022, 08:39

info wrote:
10 Feb 2022, 08:03
By now there is no doubt that there is at least an ongoing negotiation. As Getachew Reda already told us (see video below), the federal government demanded TPLF accepts Wolkait as part of Gonder as it used to be under ክፍለ ሃገር. But if TPLF accepts this offer, then TPLF may have also requested that Tigray's territory too be restored to what it used to be under ክፍለ ሃገር as Getachew already indicated (see video below). This means Tigray gets the northern part (Zone 2) of Afar as it was under ክፍለ ሃገር. You may remember that there was no region called Afar ክፍለ ሃገር but the current Afar state was part of Tigray and Wollo.

It remains to be seen whether the recent expansion of TPLF into northern Afar region (Zone 2) is part of the deal or not. The reluctant and slow response from the federal Government even to acknowledge TPLF's invasion of northern Afar may indicate that Tigray and Gonder getting back their ክፍለ ሃገር territories may be part of the negotiation.

Note that we are here just trying to connect the dots and purely speculating. And as such I'm not analyzing the impact of such a deal (if there is any) on the Afar people and as a consequence on the wider Ethiopian landscape. So we should refrain from the blame game on pure speculations. We could be completely wrong or the negotiation could collapse and ENDF may soon liberate all Afar territories.

One thing is for sure though. The current Kilil borders are not sustainable as they are a source of wars and displacements. Ethiopia needs an adjustment that fairly reflects the diversity of its people and minorities. So any territorial deal between the federal government and TPLF should only be considered as temporary until an all inclusive and fair agreement between all stakeholders is reached.



Thank you info; it makes sense on this senseless situation. You got a point. I tried to think about this situation and i gave up but what you are saying makes sense. will see.

Abe Abraham
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Posts: 11599
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Feb 2022, 08:55

ZEMEN wrote:
10 Feb 2022, 08:39
info wrote:
10 Feb 2022, 08:03
By now there is no doubt that there is at least an ongoing negotiation. As Getachew Reda already told us (see video below), the federal government demanded TPLF accepts Wolkait as part of Gonder as it used to be under ክፍለ ሃገር. But if TPLF accepts this offer, then TPLF may have also requested that Tigray's territory too be restored to what it used to be under ክፍለ ሃገር as Getachew already indicated (see video below). This means Tigray gets the northern part (Zone 2) of Afar as it was under ክፍለ ሃገር. You may remember that there was no region called Afar ክፍለ ሃገር but the current Afar state was part of Tigray and Wollo.

It remains to be seen whether the recent expansion of TPLF into northern Afar region (Zone 2) is part of the deal or not. The reluctant and slow response from the federal Government even to acknowledge TPLF's invasion of northern Afar may indicate that Tigray and Gonder getting back their ክፍለ ሃገር territories may be part of the negotiation.

Note that we are here just trying to connect the dots and purely speculating. And as such I'm not analyzing the impact of such a deal (if there is any) on the Afar people and as a consequence on the wider Ethiopian landscape. So we should refrain from the blame game on pure speculations. We could be completely wrong or the negotiation could collapse and ENDF may soon liberate all Afar territories.

One thing is for sure though. The current Kilil borders are not sustainable as they are a source of wars and displacements. Ethiopia needs an adjustment that fairly reflects the diversity of its people and minorities. So any territorial deal between the federal government and TPLF should only be considered as temporary until an all inclusive and fair agreement between all stakeholders is reached.



Thank you info; it makes sense on this senseless situation. You got a point. I tried to think about this situation and i gave up but what you are saying makes sense. will see.
Such an exercise in speculation is extremely dangerous. It is like giving a cause to a causeless barbarian. North Gondar is part of Gondar and North Afar is part of Afar. Case closed !!

ZEMEN
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Posts: 1909
Joined: 27 Jun 2011, 14:37

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by ZEMEN » 10 Feb 2022, 09:35

Abe Abraham wrote:
10 Feb 2022, 08:55
ZEMEN wrote:
10 Feb 2022, 08:39
info wrote:
10 Feb 2022, 08:03
By now there is no doubt that there is at least an ongoing negotiation. As Getachew Reda already told us (see video below), the federal government demanded TPLF accepts Wolkait as part of Gonder as it used to be under ክፍለ ሃገር. But if TPLF accepts this offer, then TPLF may have also requested that Tigray's territory too be restored to what it used to be under ክፍለ ሃገር as Getachew already indicated (see video below). This means Tigray gets the northern part (Zone 2) of Afar as it was under ክፍለ ሃገር. You may remember that there was no region called Afar ክፍለ ሃገር but the current Afar state was part of Tigray and Wollo.

It remains to be seen whether the recent expansion of TPLF into northern Afar region (Zone 2) is part of the deal or not. The reluctant and slow response from the federal Government even to acknowledge TPLF's invasion of northern Afar may indicate that Tigray and Gonder getting back their ክፍለ ሃገር territories may be part of the negotiation.

Note that we are here just trying to connect the dots and purely speculating. And as such I'm not analyzing the impact of such a deal (if there is any) on the Afar people and as a consequence on the wider Ethiopian landscape. So we should refrain from the blame game on pure speculations. We could be completely wrong or the negotiation could collapse and ENDF may soon liberate all Afar territories.

One thing is for sure though. The current Kilil borders are not sustainable as they are a source of wars and displacements. Ethiopia needs an adjustment that fairly reflects the diversity of its people and minorities. So any territorial deal between the federal government and TPLF should only be considered as temporary until an all inclusive and fair agreement between all stakeholders is reached.



Thank you info; it makes sense on this senseless situation. You got a point. I tried to think about this situation and i gave up but what you are saying makes sense. will see.
Such an exercise in speculation is extremely dangerous. It is like giving a cause to a causeless barbarian. North Gondar is part of Gondar and North Afar is part of Afar. Case closed !!
To tell you the truth, negotiations won't work. The only way out is breaking the spinal cord of the sub-humans and make them stay in the line. The problem with the sub-humans is that they think they are superior to any Ethiopian ethnics. So, this feeling of superiority must be crushed and destroyed. Abiy is taking the country dangerously and catastrophic situations. He is so occupied about his power, he lost the sight on the situation.

info
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Posts: 3589
Joined: 05 Dec 2014, 11:33

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by info » 10 Feb 2022, 14:19

ZEMEN wrote:
10 Feb 2022, 08:39
info wrote:
10 Feb 2022, 08:03
By now there is no doubt that there is at least an ongoing negotiation. As Getachew Reda already told us (see video below), the federal government demanded TPLF accepts Wolkait as part of Gonder as it used to be under ክፍለ ሃገር. But if TPLF accepts this offer, then TPLF may have also requested that Tigray's territory too be restored to what it used to be under ክፍለ ሃገር as Getachew already indicated (see video below). This means Tigray gets the northern part (Zone 2) of Afar as it was under ክፍለ ሃገር. You may remember that there was no region called Afar ክፍለ ሃገር but the current Afar state was part of Tigray and Wollo.

It remains to be seen whether the recent expansion of TPLF into northern Afar region (Zone 2) is part of the deal or not. The reluctant and slow response from the federal Government even to acknowledge TPLF's invasion of northern Afar may indicate that Tigray and Gonder getting back their ክፍለ ሃገር territories may be part of the negotiation.

Note that we are here just trying to connect the dots and purely speculating. And as such I'm not analyzing the impact of such a deal (if there is any) on the Afar people and as a consequence on the wider Ethiopian landscape. So we should refrain from the blame game on pure speculations. We could be completely wrong or the negotiation could collapse and ENDF may soon liberate all Afar territories.

One thing is for sure though. The current Kilil borders are not sustainable as they are a source of wars and displacements. Ethiopia needs an adjustment that fairly reflects the diversity of its people and minorities. So any territorial deal between the federal government and TPLF should only be considered as temporary until an all inclusive and fair agreement between all stakeholders is reached.



Thank you info; it makes sense on this senseless situation. You got a point. I tried to think about this situation and i gave up but what you are saying makes sense. will see.
An Afar official just confirmed that zone 2 of Afar is now fully occupied by TPLF. Zone 2 was once part of Tigray ክፍለ ሃገር.


info
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Joined: 05 Dec 2014, 11:33

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by info » 22 Feb 2022, 10:06

Dr. Abiy today hinted about the benefits of releasing the 6 TPLF leaders and also prepared the parliament for the coming official negotiation/agreement with the TPLF and most likely also budget for Tigray. He said that Ethiopia has hugely benefited (monetary/diplomatic) from the release of those 6 TPLF leaders. Most importantly, he prepared the parliament for the coming official negotiation/agreement with the TPLF and about the possible budget for Tigray. He spoke about why negotiations are preferred if possible and about rebuilding Tigray and finding a way to help the people of Tigray. He also said other statements around the plight of the people of Tigray such as "no other region was destroyed like Tigray" etc. He even urged members of parliament to demand that the people of Tigray get what they are entitled as Ethiopians. In my view, these kind of statements are intended to prepare the parliament to provide federal government budget for Tigray if the on going negotiation become successful.

It remains to be seen whether TPLF accepts losing Wolkait and focus on rebuilding Tigray. With radical generals commanding TDF, it will be a very difficult job for the political leadership of TPLF to convince the military wing and stop them from the next and most likely last military adventure.

On negotiations and the release of TPLF leaders.


Preparing parliament for Tigray budget.

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