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The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials [updated].

Post by info » 10 Jan 2022, 08:14

Many Ethiopians, including myself, were taken by surprise when they heard the release of TPLF officials such as Sebehat Nega & co. My friends in Addis Ababa told me that everybody is depressed, angry and think this is a mockery of justice. The same feeling is shared by many diasporas that are currently in Ethiopia following the invitation of the PM.

Even though we are all in the dark and could not tell what really is happening but we can try to connect the dots by analyzing some hints that may give us a better picture to understand why the TPLF officials were released.

In my view, the release of TPLF officials and the huge risk PM Abiy is willing to take in the process is a clear indication that not only there has been a serious backdoor negotiation going on between the federal government and TPLF but a deal has already been struck.

What are the clues/dots that point to a possible negotiation/deal between PP and TPLF and what is in the deal?
  • Few days ago, opposition parties in Tigray seem to have got leaked information about the ongoing negotiation between the federal government and TPLF. They were alarmed that TPLF alone is negotiating without including them. They issued a statement demanding they also should be part of the ongoing negotiation.
  • Debretsion on his recent CNN interview talked about "formalization of the secession of hostilities" indicating to an already existing informal negotiation/deal.
  • The high risk the federal government is taking to release TPLF officials Sebehat Nega & Co. This is almost unthinkable without a deal with TPLF. The federal government would have never risked so much just to show some mercy. This is a clear indication that a deal has been struck.
  • PM pouring highly exaggerated military promotions the day after the release of TPLF officials. The timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotions may indicate the PMs attempt to appease the military. But why does he need to appease the military unless there is something that he did or is doing that may not sit well with the military? It looks like he fears some in the military may not be happy about his backdoor negotiation with the TPLF. After all, the war started because of the massacre of ENDF soldiers in Tigray.
  • Getachew Reda today accused the Eritrean president of "sabotaging all peacemaking efforts", indicating there is already some kind of peacemaking effort going on.
  • Getachew Reda in one of his interviews said that the AU mediator Obasanjo asked TPLF to accept Wolkait aka "western Tigray" as part of Gonder just like it was prior to 1991. If true, this gives us a clue what one of the demands of the federal government look like. It seems one of the demands of the federal government is that TPLF accepts that it can't administer Wolkait.
  • In his latest letter to the UN, Debretsion claimed to withdraw his forces from Amhara and Afar and to be ready for peace despite the fact that "western Tigray was still occupied". It seems that he is indirectly saying that TPLF is ready for negotiations and peace process even if Wolkait aka "western Tigray" is not under his administration.

We really don't know for sure what is in the deal but from all the hints and dots we can try to guess what the deal may include.
In my view, the deal seem to include the following:
  • TPLF accepts it can't administer Welkait ("western Tigray") at least until the case is reviewed by the border commission.
  • Amhara region on the other hand accepts Raya waja/azebo ("southern Tigray") to stay in and administered by Tigray. We are hearing from unconfirmed reports that most of ENDF and Amhara special forces have already left or are leaving "southern Tigray" (Alamata, Waja etc.). In my view it is a matter of time until TPLF completely controls the area up to the "official" Amhara-Tigray border.
  • The federal government releases TPLF officials since this was one of the constant demands of TPLF.
  • The federal government also accepts TPLF to administer Tigray. The deal most likely also include the delivery of aid, the resumption of services such as telecom, banking and electricity and may also include indirect budget to Tigray.
The deal, if true, will be hard sell for both PM Abiy/PP and TPLF. Both will have a hard time selling the deal for their supporters. They both will face some kind of resistance. TPLF started the war, sacrificed so much just to end up with less than what it had started. This is a hard sell. PM Abiy also has to do hard selling. Accepting TPLF to administer Tigray after so much sacrifice and destruction will not be an easy task. Both will be under intense pressure in the coming weeks and months. We may also see a leadership/party split in both camps.

In my view there is no best deal in this crisis. Those who reject the negotiation/the deal (from both sides) do not seem to come up with a better alternative other than to continue the war. Continuing the war is no more possible for both the federal government and TPLF. PM Abiy has a vision that is based on economic transformation. He is not like Mengistu that makes war the center of his job. To fulfill his vision, he needs economic development and prosperity. For this purpose he has no other alternative other than to end the war an soon as possible. It seems he is not ready to sacrifice his vision and stuck in the war forever.

TPLF on the other had does not have the resources to wage a conventional war for long. It's out of resources, military supplies and most likely also human resources. The only possibility to continue the war for TPLF is to switch to a guerrilla war of insurgency but that can only work if ENDF was to settle in Tigray, otherwise it has very low chance of success and only cost Tigray for years. TPLF knows it can't force the federal government with insurgency and it can't win a conventional war.

As I said, this is not the best deal as there is no best deal in this crises but at least if this helps to stop the war, I'm ready to accept it. Of course we all know this is can only postpone the war for a later time if things are not settled politically.

[UPDATE]
Thinking back, the sequence of events and the ultimate acceptance by TPLF of the offer made by PM could be as follows:
  • While TPLF was in Wollo and nearing northern Showa, the AU mediator Obasanjo went to Mekele and presented PM Abiy's offer for peace. We know now for sure that the federal government demanded among others two main points. TPLF leaves Amahra and Afar regions and accepts Wolkait will be part of Gonder. This offer was hinted by both Getachew Reda and also PP spokesperson Zadig Abraha. Zadig Abraha at that time confirmed that Government will negotiate if TPLF withdraws from Amhara/Afar regions and Getachew Reda told us the federal government demanded Wolkait to be administrated by Gonder.
  • TPLF rejected the offer and continued the war hopping to reach Addis Ababa and remove PM Abiy from power.
  • ENDF and Ethiopian forces started a counter offensive and while the offensive was going, PM Abiy from battlefield spoke on the media and called the driving out of TPLF forces from Amhara and Afar regions the first phase of the operation. He hinted that there will be a second phase and is in preparation. Many thought the second phase could be marching to Mekele.
  • PP officials including high ranking military officers were talking about marching to Mekele. General Berhanu Jula on camera told soldiers that their next mission was to march to Mekele. General Bacha Debele told to his troops that they will celebrate the final victory in Mekele. It was clear ENDF was ordered to prepare to march to Mekele.
  • ENDF drives TDF out of Amhara and Afar regions and started marching to "Southern Tigray" (Waja, Alamata) and also nearing to Abergele.
  • Then all of a sudden ENDF was ordered to stop its advances into Tigray. It seems that is the time when TPLF accepted the offer made by PM Abiy. TPLF was telling its supporters it was withdrawing to facilitate peace and is not defeated and the humiliation that could come by ENDF soon marching to Mekele was simply too much for TPLF and it has to accept the offer. It seems the release of Sebehat Nega & co. is only to help TPLF save face. The imminent threat of ENDF marching to Mekele did the trick!
  • Tigray opposition somehow got leaked information that TPLF accepted PM's offer and cried foul.
PM Abiy has no interest to go to Tigray and administer the mess there. He is happy he found someone to do the "dirty" job.
Last edited by info on 11 Jan 2022, 08:56, edited 6 times in total.

Abe Abraham
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Posts: 11599
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Jan 2022, 08:45

info wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 08:14
Many Ethiopians, including myself, were taken by surprise when they heard the release of TPLF officials such as Sebehat Nega & co. My friends in Addis Ababa told me that everybody is depressed, angry and think this is a mockery of justice. The same feeling is shared by many diasporas that are currently in Ethiopia following the invitation of the PM.

Even though we are all in the dark and could not tell what really is happening but we can try to connect the dots by analyzing some hints that may give us a better picture to understand why the TPLF officials were released.

In my view, the release of TPLF officials and the huge risk PM Abiy is willing to take in the process is a clear indication that not only there has been a serious backdoor negotiation going on between the federal government and TPLF but a deal has already been struck.

What are the clues/dots that point to a possible negotiation/deal between PP and TPLF and what is in the deal?
  • Few days ago, opposition parties in Tigray seem to have got leaked information about the ongoing negotiation between the federal government and TPLF. They were alarmed that TPLF alone is negotiating without including them. They issued a statement demanding they also should be part of the ongoing negotiation.
  • Debretsion on his recent CNN interview talked about "formalization of the secession of hostilities" indicating to an already existing informal negotiation/deal.
  • The high risk the federal government is taking to release TPLF officials Sebehat Nega & Co. This is almost unthinkable without a deal with TPLF. The federal government would have never risked so much just to show some mercy. This is a clear indication that a deal has been struck.
  • PM pouring highly exaggerated military promotions the day after the release of TPLF officials. The timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotions may indicate the PMs attempt to appease the military. But why does he need to appease the military unless there is something that he did or is doing that may not sit well with the military? It looks like he fears some in the military may not be happy about his backdoor negotiation with the TPLF. After all, the war started because of the massacre of ENDF soldiers in Tigray.
  • Getachew Reda today accused the Eritrean president of "sabotaging all peacemaking efforts", indicating there is already some kind of peacemaking effort going on.
  • Getachew Reda in one of his interviews said that the AU mediator Obasanjo asked TPLF to accept Wolkait aka "western Tigray" as part of Gonder just like it was prior to 1991. If true, this gives us a clue what one of the demands of the federal government look like. It seems one of the demands of the federal government is that TPLF accepts that it can't administer Wolkait.
  • In his latest letter to the UN, Debretsion claimed to withdraw his forces from Amhara and Afar and to be ready for peace despite the fact that "western Tigray was still occupied". It seems that he is indirectly saying that TPLF is ready for negotiations and peace process even if Wolkait aka "western Tigray" is not under his administration.

We really don't know for sure what is in the deal but from all the hints and dots we can try to guess what the deal may include.
In my view, the deal seem to include the following:
  • TPLF accepts it can't administer Welkait ("western Tigray") at least until the case is reviewed by the border commission.
  • Amhara region on the other hand accepts Raya waja/azebo ("southern Tigray") to stay in and administered by Tigray. We are hearing from unconfirmed reports that most of ENDF and Amhara special forces have already left or are leaving "southern Tigray" (Alamata, Waja etc.). In my view it is a matter of time until TPLF completely controls the area up to the "official" Amhara-Tigray border.
  • The federal government releases TPLF officials since this was one of the constant demands of TPLF.
  • The federal government also accepts TPLF to administer Tigray. The deal most likely also include the delivery of aid, the resumption of services such as telecom, banking and electricity and may also include indirect budget to Tigray.
The deal, if true, will be hard sell for both PM Abiy/PP and TPLF. Both will have a hard time selling the deal for their supporters. They both will face some kind of resistance. TPLF started the war, sacrificed so much just to end up with less than what it had started. This is a hard sell. PM Abiy also has to do hard selling. Accepting TPLF to administer Tigray after so much sacrifice and destruction will not be an easy task. Both will be under intense pressure in the coming weeks and months. We may also see a leadership/party split in both camps.

In my view there is no best deal in this crisis. Those who reject the negotiation/the deal (from both sides) do not seem to come up with a better alternative other than to continue the war. Continuing the war is no more possible for both the federal government and TPLF. PM Abiy has a vision that is based on economic transformation. He is not like Mengistu that makes war the center of his job. To fulfill his vision, he needs economic development and prosperity. For this purpose he has no other alternative other than to end the war an soon as possible. It seems he is not ready to sacrifice his vision and stuck in the war forever.

TPLF on the other had does not have the resources to wage a conventional war for long. It's out of resources, military supplies and most likely also human resources. The only possibility to continue the war for TPLF is to switch to a guerrilla war of insurgency but that can only work if ENDF was to settle in Tigray, otherwise it has very low chance of success and only cost Tigray for years. TPLF knows it can't force the federal government with insurgency and it can't win a conventional war.

As I said, this is not the best deal as there is no best deal in this crises but at least if this helps to stop the war, I'm ready to accept it. Of course we all know this is can only postpone the war for a later time if things are not settled politically.
  • If you do not know what the contents of " the deal " are why are you claiming that " those who reject the deal do not seem to come up with a better alternative.than to continue the war. " That is not fair. The Amhara are not demanding anything than to keep their lands and live as free people in their own lands. Is that tantamount to having the desire to continue the war ? I never expected such an analysis from an intelligent person like you. What do you mean by "at least until the case is reviewed by the border commission " ? There is no case to be reviewed. The Amharas have got their lands and they want to keep it that way. There is no point for the government to stop a war and start another one against the Amhara people.

Abe Abraham
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Posts: 11599
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Jan 2022, 09:07

  • PM pouring highly exaggerated military promotions the day after the release of TPLF officials. The timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotions may indicate the PMs attempt to appease the military. But why does he need to appease the military unless there is something that he did or is doing that may not sit well with the military? It looks like he fears some in the military may not be happy about his backdoor negotiation with the TPLF. After all, the war started because of the massacre of ENDF soldiers in Tigray.

Very weak analysis from a very intelligent person like you. The military promotions are not highly exaggerated. It is a reward for those who have fought not an easy war against the suicidal Tigrayans and have managed to push them to Tigray. Appease the military ? There is no one in the military who would contemplate to overthrow the prime minister or rebel against him.


.

Noble Amhara
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Noble Amhara » 10 Jan 2022, 09:16

Amhara People do not Accept Waja, Alamata, and Wolfa as Southern Tigray.

Southern Tigray is Maychew.

Amhara are rightfully fighting for their ancestral land that TPLF desires to Settle on

Alamata. Waja, Zata, and Korem are Welo Amhara towns given to Tegrayan Migrants



info wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 08:14

DefendTheTruth
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by DefendTheTruth » 10 Jan 2022, 10:42

Abe Abraham wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 09:07
  • PM pouring highly exaggerated military promotions the day after the release of TPLF officials. The timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotions may indicate the PMs attempt to appease the military. But why does he need to appease the military unless there is something that he did or is doing that may not sit well with the military? It looks like he fears some in the military may not be happy about his backdoor negotiation with the TPLF. After all, the war started because of the massacre of ENDF soldiers in Tigray.

Very weak analysis from a very intelligent person like you. The military promotions are not highly exaggerated. It is a reward for those who have fought not an easy war against the suicidal Tigrayans and have managed to push them to Tigray. Appease the military ? There is no one in the military who would contemplate to overthrow the prime minister or rebel against him.


.
Not only that, in my view, but also the picture he tries to paint here totally forgets the role of Gashena. If the TPLF indeed "withdrew" its forces based on a certain deal between the two sides, then why on earth would somebody sacrifies that much of resources and human lives that were spent in Gashena, on both sides? The government has at least taken control of the strategic place and with that can try to justify its action, what about the ragtag?

Gashena will remain the symbol of the recent war of aggression of TPLF for many years to come and will be remembered in the history book of our nation.

I have to add here that Gashena is not the only place but stands out for many other places where many precious lives have been lost, unforunately.

The Ethiopian military saved the nation from an all-out onslaught and dismemberment of the nation and I don't think any praise for its rank and file would ever be exaggerated.

If you ask the guy himself about whether he would have booked a ticket to fly home around the end of last Nov. the answer is likely, not this time around, now everything is over and the recognition made to the guardian that made it possible is already "an exaggeration", an act of ungreatfulness.

Having said that I do also recognize that the government and the general public or any segement of it, are not expected to have the same and equal points of interest to base their decisions on.

The government leads a nation, of diverse and complicated web of interests, while a given segment of the society would have its own narrower and more uniform interests. The government has to always try to bring the different contradicting web of interests into a sort of compromising positions and make the decisions accordingly, at least in my view.

To bring the two into the sort of a tune is extremely difficult, if not impossible, at all times.

At the end of the day, the majority will win at the national level, that is what we call democracy.

Some people are still stuck to the idea of my way or the highway and the simple maxim of government is to be always prepared for a compromise (win-win situation, instead of zero-sum situation).

info
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Posts: 3589
Joined: 05 Dec 2014, 11:33

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by info » 10 Jan 2022, 11:02

I have never said TPLF withdrew willingly, it was clearly defeated on the battle field. When I say the military promotion was exaggerated, I am not saying ENDF didn't win the war, no I am only pointing to the fact that way too many generals were promoted (over 100) and one was even given a field marshal rank. All this for an army that had struggled to win over a kilil military for over one year, an army that failed to protect civilians from rape, killing and displacement and destruction of property. An army that left thousands of its soldiers as POWs in Tigray.

You don't award 100 generals and a field marshal for an army that struggled to deal with a kilil army for over a year. What would happen if Egypt was to invade? I don't want to disrespect the huge sacrifice our military paid which I am forever thankful. What I am saying is the war most of all revealed not the strength of our army so that its high ranking officers deserve exaggerated promotions but rather the war showed the weakness of the army and the mistakes of the high ranking officers that lead to thousands of POWs and not being able to protect millions.

An army that displays so much weakness needs a much needed reform and capacity building, which I believe is underway, and also self-reflecting to work on its weakness. The last thing it needs is an exaggerated promotion that will only hide the many serious mistakes the officers did.

Thus, the timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotion seem to have more to do with the backdoor negotiation with the TPLF.
DefendTheTruth wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 10:42
Not only that, in my view, but also the picture he tries to paint here totally forgets the role of Gashena. If the TPLF indeed "withdrew" its forces based on a certain deal between the two sides, then why on earth would somebody sacrifies that much of resources and human lives that were spent in Gashena, on both sides? The government has at least taken control of the strategic place and with that can try to justify its action, what about the ragtag?

Gashena will remain the symbol of the recent war of aggression of TPLF for many years to come and will be remembered in the history book of our nation.

I have to add here that Gashena is not the only place but stands out for many other places where many precious lives have been lost, unforunately.

The Ethiopian military saved the nation from an all-out onslaught and dismemberment of the nation and I don't think any praise for its rank and file would ever be exaggerated.

If you ask the guy himself about whether he would have booked a ticket to fly home around the end of last Nov. the answer is likely, not this time around, now everything is over and the recognition made to the guardian that made it possible is already "an exaggeration", an act of ungreatfulness.

Having said that I do also recognize that the government and the general public or any segement of it, are not expected to have the same and equal points of interest to base their decisions on.

The government leads a nation, of diverse and complicated web of interests, while a given segment of the society would have its own narrower and more uniform interests. The government has to always try to bring the different contradicting web of interests into a sort of compromising positions and make the decisions accordingly, at least in my view.

To bring the two into the sort of a tune is extremely difficult, if not impossible, at all times.

At the end of the day, the majority will win at the national level, that is what we call democracy.

Some people are still stuck to the idea of my way or the highway and the simple maxim of government is to be always prepared for a compromise (win-win situation, instead of zero-sum situation).

Hamassien1
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Posts: 2
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Hamassien1 » 10 Jan 2022, 11:29

If there is any deal with the TPLF, they will accept it in principle and hold peace hostage. Any deal made is subjected to change at Agame whims!

Abe Abraham
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Posts: 11599
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Jan 2022, 11:42

info wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 11:02
I have never said TPLF withdrew willingly, it was clearly defeated on the battle field. When I say the military promotion was exaggerated, I am not saying ENDF didn't win the war, no I am only pointing to the fact that way too many generals were promoted (over 100) and one was even given a field marshal rank. All this for an army that had struggled to win over a kilil military for over one year, an army that failed to protect civilians from rape, killing and displacement and destruction of property. An army that left thousands of its soldiers as POWs in Tigray.

You don't award 100 generals and a field marshal for an army that struggled to deal with a kilil army for over a year. What would happen if Egypt was to invade? I don't want to disrespect the huge sacrifice our military paid which I am forever thankful. What I am saying is the war most of all revealed not the strength of our army so that its high ranking officers deserve exaggerated promotions but rather the war showed the weakness of the army and the mistakes of the high ranking officers that lead to thousands of POWs and not being able to protect millions.

An army that displays so much weakness needs a much needed reform and capacity building, which I believe is underway, and also self-reflecting to work on its weakness. The last thing it needs is an exaggerated promotion that will only hide the many serious mistakes the officers did.

Thus, the timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotion seem to have more to do with the backdoor negotiation with the TPLF.
DefendTheTruth wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 10:42
Not only that, in my view, but also the picture he tries to paint here totally forgets the role of Gashena. If the TPLF indeed "withdrew" its forces based on a certain deal between the two sides, then why on earth would somebody sacrifies that much of resources and human lives that were spent in Gashena, on both sides? The government has at least taken control of the strategic place and with that can try to justify its action, what about the ragtag?

Gashena will remain the symbol of the recent war of aggression of TPLF for many years to come and will be remembered in the history book of our nation.

I have to add here that Gashena is not the only place but stands out for many other places where many precious lives have been lost, unforunately.

The Ethiopian military saved the nation from an all-out onslaught and dismemberment of the nation and I don't think any praise for its rank and file would ever be exaggerated.

If you ask the guy himself about whether he would have booked a ticket to fly home around the end of last Nov. the answer is likely, not this time around, now everything is over and the recognition made to the guardian that made it possible is already "an exaggeration", an act of ungreatfulness.

Having said that I do also recognize that the government and the general public or any segement of it, are not expected to have the same and equal points of interest to base their decisions on.

The government leads a nation, of diverse and complicated web of interests, while a given segment of the society would have its own narrower and more uniform interests. The government has to always try to bring the different contradicting web of interests into a sort of compromising positions and make the decisions accordingly, at least in my view.

To bring the two into the sort of a tune is extremely difficult, if not impossible, at all times.

At the end of the day, the majority will win at the national level, that is what we call democracy.

Some people are still stuck to the idea of my way or the highway and the simple maxim of government is to be always prepared for a compromise (win-win situation, instead of zero-sum situation).
Backdoor negotiation with the TPLF ? What do you mean ? If the Americans blackmail the elected Prime Minister of Ethiopia and dictate the terms of an agreement does that qualify as a negotiation ?

info
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Posts: 3589
Joined: 05 Dec 2014, 11:33

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by info » 10 Jan 2022, 11:56

Ab, please let us not get distracted by the choice of words. Of course we all know it was the Americans that made the backdoor deal possible. As I said, the PM has a vision for building and transforming the economy. He knows he can't fulfill his vision without the west. He wants to use his power to fulfill his vision and not just to sit idle. He is just not a man of war like Mengistu. The PM likes to build and transform, that is his passion. We have seen that many times. He also knows he can't achieve his vision if he is stuck with war forever. So he seem to cut a deal with the Americans and TPLF.

Unless someone else comes with a better alternative, I think this is the best what we can get for now to stop the war and focus on rebuilding our country. We can't keep fighting and destroying our country forever.
Abe Abraham wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 11:42
info wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 11:02
I have never said TPLF withdrew willingly, it was clearly defeated on the battle field. When I say the military promotion was exaggerated, I am not saying ENDF didn't win the war, no I am only pointing to the fact that way too many generals were promoted (over 100) and one was even given a field marshal rank. All this for an army that had struggled to win over a kilil military for over one year, an army that failed to protect civilians from rape, killing and displacement and destruction of property. An army that left thousands of its soldiers as POWs in Tigray.

You don't award 100 generals and a field marshal for an army that struggled to deal with a kilil army for over a year. What would happen if Egypt was to invade? I don't want to disrespect the huge sacrifice our military paid which I am forever thankful. What I am saying is the war most of all revealed not the strength of our army so that its high ranking officers deserve exaggerated promotions but rather the war showed the weakness of the army and the mistakes of the high ranking officers that lead to thousands of POWs and not being able to protect millions.

An army that displays so much weakness needs a much needed reform and capacity building, which I believe is underway, and also self-reflecting to work on its weakness. The last thing it needs is an exaggerated promotion that will only hide the many serious mistakes the officers did.

Thus, the timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotion seem to have more to do with the backdoor negotiation with the TPLF.
DefendTheTruth wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 10:42
Not only that, in my view, but also the picture he tries to paint here totally forgets the role of Gashena. If the TPLF indeed "withdrew" its forces based on a certain deal between the two sides, then why on earth would somebody sacrifies that much of resources and human lives that were spent in Gashena, on both sides? The government has at least taken control of the strategic place and with that can try to justify its action, what about the ragtag?

Gashena will remain the symbol of the recent war of aggression of TPLF for many years to come and will be remembered in the history book of our nation.

I have to add here that Gashena is not the only place but stands out for many other places where many precious lives have been lost, unforunately.

The Ethiopian military saved the nation from an all-out onslaught and dismemberment of the nation and I don't think any praise for its rank and file would ever be exaggerated.

If you ask the guy himself about whether he would have booked a ticket to fly home around the end of last Nov. the answer is likely, not this time around, now everything is over and the recognition made to the guardian that made it possible is already "an exaggeration", an act of ungreatfulness.

Having said that I do also recognize that the government and the general public or any segement of it, are not expected to have the same and equal points of interest to base their decisions on.

The government leads a nation, of diverse and complicated web of interests, while a given segment of the society would have its own narrower and more uniform interests. The government has to always try to bring the different contradicting web of interests into a sort of compromising positions and make the decisions accordingly, at least in my view.

To bring the two into the sort of a tune is extremely difficult, if not impossible, at all times.

At the end of the day, the majority will win at the national level, that is what we call democracy.

Some people are still stuck to the idea of my way or the highway and the simple maxim of government is to be always prepared for a compromise (win-win situation, instead of zero-sum situation).
Backdoor negotiation with the TPLF ? What do you mean ? If the Americans blackmail the elected Prime Minister of Ethiopia and dictate the terms of an agreement does that qualify as negotiation ?

Abe Abraham
Senior Member
Posts: 11599
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Jan 2022, 12:23

info wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 11:56
Ab, please let us not get distracted by the choice of words. Of course we all know it was the Americans that made the backdoor deal possible. As I said, the PM has a vision for building and transforming the economy. He knows he can't fulfill his vision without the west. He wants to use his power to fulfill his vision and not just to sit idle. He is just not a man of war like Mengistu. The PM likes to build and transform, that is his passion. We have seen that many times. He also knows he can't achieve his vision if he is stuck with war forever. So he seem to cut a deal with the Americans and TPLF.

Unless someone else comes with a better alternative, I think this is the best what we can get for now to stop the war and focus on rebuilding our country. We can't keep fighting and destroying our country forever.
Abe Abraham wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 11:42
info wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 11:02
I have never said TPLF withdrew willingly, it was clearly defeated on the battle field. When I say the military promotion was exaggerated, I am not saying ENDF didn't win the war, no I am only pointing to the fact that way too many generals were promoted (over 100) and one was even given a field marshal rank. All this for an army that had struggled to win over a kilil military for over one year, an army that failed to protect civilians from rape, killing and displacement and destruction of property. An army that left thousands of its soldiers as POWs in Tigray.

You don't award 100 generals and a field marshal for an army that struggled to deal with a kilil army for over a year. What would happen if Egypt was to invade? I don't want to disrespect the huge sacrifice our military paid which I am forever thankful. What I am saying is the war most of all revealed not the strength of our army so that its high ranking officers deserve exaggerated promotions but rather the war showed the weakness of the army and the mistakes of the high ranking officers that lead to thousands of POWs and not being able to protect millions.

An army that displays so much weakness needs a much needed reform and capacity building, which I believe is underway, and also self-reflecting to work on its weakness. The last thing it needs is an exaggerated promotion that will only hide the many serious mistakes the officers did.

Thus, the timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotion seem to have more to do with the backdoor negotiation with the TPLF.
DefendTheTruth wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 10:42
Not only that, in my view, but also the picture he tries to paint here totally forgets the role of Gashena. If the TPLF indeed "withdrew" its forces based on a certain deal between the two sides, then why on earth would somebody sacrifies that much of resources and human lives that were spent in Gashena, on both sides? The government has at least taken control of the strategic place and with that can try to justify its action, what about the ragtag?

Gashena will remain the symbol of the recent war of aggression of TPLF for many years to come and will be remembered in the history book of our nation.

I have to add here that Gashena is not the only place but stands out for many other places where many precious lives have been lost, unforunately.

The Ethiopian military saved the nation from an all-out onslaught and dismemberment of the nation and I don't think any praise for its rank and file would ever be exaggerated.

If you ask the guy himself about whether he would have booked a ticket to fly home around the end of last Nov. the answer is likely, not this time around, now everything is over and the recognition made to the guardian that made it possible is already "an exaggeration", an act of ungreatfulness.

Having said that I do also recognize that the government and the general public or any segement of it, are not expected to have the same and equal points of interest to base their decisions on.

The government leads a nation, of diverse and complicated web of interests, while a given segment of the society would have its own narrower and more uniform interests. The government has to always try to bring the different contradicting web of interests into a sort of compromising positions and make the decisions accordingly, at least in my view.

To bring the two into the sort of a tune is extremely difficult, if not impossible, at all times.

At the end of the day, the majority will win at the national level, that is what we call democracy.

Some people are still stuck to the idea of my way or the highway and the simple maxim of government is to be always prepared for a compromise (win-win situation, instead of zero-sum situation).
Backdoor negotiation with the TPLF ? What do you mean ? If the Americans blackmail the elected Prime Minister of Ethiopia and dictate the terms of an agreement does that qualify as negotiation ?
Info,

Choice of words is very important in this case. In a situation where there is no negotiation but getting dictated by the Americans when the point that you raised about the border commission becomes reality the decision of the commission could be determined by the Americans themselves. So once again words matter because you have to know where you are going before you take the first step.

info
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Posts: 3589
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by info » 10 Jan 2022, 12:31

Disclaimer: this is all my own private opinion/guess driving from publicly available information. We really don't know for sure what is actually in the deal.
Abe Abraham wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 12:23
info wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 11:56
Ab, please let us not get distracted by the choice of words. Of course we all know it was the Americans that made the backdoor deal possible. As I said, the PM has a vision for building and transforming the economy. He knows he can't fulfill his vision without the west. He wants to use his power to fulfill his vision and not just to sit idle. He is just not a man of war like Mengistu. The PM likes to build and transform, that is his passion. We have seen that many times. He also knows he can't achieve his vision if he is stuck with war forever. So he seem to cut a deal with the Americans and TPLF.

Unless someone else comes with a better alternative, I think this is the best what we can get for now to stop the war and focus on rebuilding our country. We can't keep fighting and destroying our country forever.
Abe Abraham wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 11:42
info wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 11:02
I have never said TPLF withdrew willingly, it was clearly defeated on the battle field. When I say the military promotion was exaggerated, I am not saying ENDF didn't win the war, no I am only pointing to the fact that way too many generals were promoted (over 100) and one was even given a field marshal rank. All this for an army that had struggled to win over a kilil military for over one year, an army that failed to protect civilians from rape, killing and displacement and destruction of property. An army that left thousands of its soldiers as POWs in Tigray.

You don't award 100 generals and a field marshal for an army that struggled to deal with a kilil army for over a year. What would happen if Egypt was to invade? I don't want to disrespect the huge sacrifice our military paid which I am forever thankful. What I am saying is the war most of all revealed not the strength of our army so that its high ranking officers deserve exaggerated promotions but rather the war showed the weakness of the army and the mistakes of the high ranking officers that lead to thousands of POWs and not being able to protect millions.

An army that displays so much weakness needs a much needed reform and capacity building, which I believe is underway, and also self-reflecting to work on its weakness. The last thing it needs is an exaggerated promotion that will only hide the many serious mistakes the officers did.

Thus, the timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotion seem to have more to do with the backdoor negotiation with the TPLF.
DefendTheTruth wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 10:42
Not only that, in my view, but also the picture he tries to paint here totally forgets the role of Gashena. If the TPLF indeed "withdrew" its forces based on a certain deal between the two sides, then why on earth would somebody sacrifies that much of resources and human lives that were spent in Gashena, on both sides? The government has at least taken control of the strategic place and with that can try to justify its action, what about the ragtag?

Gashena will remain the symbol of the recent war of aggression of TPLF for many years to come and will be remembered in the history book of our nation.

I have to add here that Gashena is not the only place but stands out for many other places where many precious lives have been lost, unforunately.

The Ethiopian military saved the nation from an all-out onslaught and dismemberment of the nation and I don't think any praise for its rank and file would ever be exaggerated.

If you ask the guy himself about whether he would have booked a ticket to fly home around the end of last Nov. the answer is likely, not this time around, now everything is over and the recognition made to the guardian that made it possible is already "an exaggeration", an act of ungreatfulness.

Having said that I do also recognize that the government and the general public or any segement of it, are not expected to have the same and equal points of interest to base their decisions on.

The government leads a nation, of diverse and complicated web of interests, while a given segment of the society would have its own narrower and more uniform interests. The government has to always try to bring the different contradicting web of interests into a sort of compromising positions and make the decisions accordingly, at least in my view.

To bring the two into the sort of a tune is extremely difficult, if not impossible, at all times.

At the end of the day, the majority will win at the national level, that is what we call democracy.

Some people are still stuck to the idea of my way or the highway and the simple maxim of government is to be always prepared for a compromise (win-win situation, instead of zero-sum situation).
Backdoor negotiation with the TPLF ? What do you mean ? If the Americans blackmail the elected Prime Minister of Ethiopia and dictate the terms of an agreement does that qualify as negotiation ?
Info,

Choice of words is very important in this case. In a situation where there is no negotiation but getting dictated by the Americans when the point that you raised about the border commission becomes reality the decision of the commission could be determined by the Americans themselves. So once again words matter because you have to know where you are going before you take the first step.

Dejach Aklilu
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Dejach Aklilu » 10 Jan 2022, 13:38

Info

Most of your assumptions make sense. Although I would add that both sides had been negotiating through their diaspora agents ever since Getachew Reda got hold of that satellite phone, :lol: :lol: so negotiations were already on going by then. I also believe there is no military explanation for defending welkait with valor, defending afar with valor but when it comes to Wollo , the military being completely hopeless was deliberate. The execuse they use is the military is overstretched defending the sudan border and the Djibouti corridor, but that doesn't explain the numerous orders for Amhara liyu hail to disengage every developing theatre and to retreat at every opportunity from Raya to all the way to North shewa. The whole think was orchestrated so that the upstart PM can gallop on a white horse at the 11th hour and proclaim himself the savior as we saw on various state media outlets.

Nonetheless if you various assumptions are correct about TPLF being allowed to adminster Tigray , TpLf with free reign in tigray and jawar with free reign in oromia and Abiy damaged by this whole affair will end up pushing us to a confederal union of some sort which if it is drawn up fairly, I am not against.
Last edited by Dejach Aklilu on 10 Jan 2022, 13:44, edited 2 times in total.

kibramlak
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by kibramlak » 10 Jan 2022, 13:38

One can draw a number of hypothesis. But, whether its made by the government or by external pressure, one has to ask first the following questions:

1) why the decision is made in the sacred day on a holiday which is dear to many
2) why pouring cold water on the apparently energized diaspora who were supposed to be his dear guests (as they are officially invited by himself) and could be a potential fixer to the shattered economy, in addition to their contributions in rebuilding the war affected areas



Then, one could also ask on the following (for the funny promotions of the military):

1) the war is not over yet. Tplf is still encroaching to areas outside of Tigray.
2) the decision of Abiy to leave Mekele lead to the occupation of the neighbouring regions which resulted in damages beyond words can explain. We see no glory here. If the truth to be told, though at heavy loses, TPLF seemed to have won this war


Finally, on the possible backdoor negotiations, we cannot call a negotiation as long as tplf has come out as winner. It is an arm twisting by external forces and by betrayal of Ethiopians. Tplf and the external forced might have asked:
1) budget release
2) restoration of basic services to prewar time
3) getting exit corridors
4) getting back effort business conglomerate
5) having direct flights
6) Wolkayt issues (even if this shouldn't be put to the talk table as it has never been a part of Tigray)
....

ሴረኛው አብይ will fulfill the above five, except nr six. Then, ሴረኛው አብይ will provide the following poison gifts to the Amhara people :
1) based on nr 3 to 5 above, tplf would get weapons, including drones, to further destroy neighbouring regions
2) tplf and olf (oromuma) form renewed alliance to sustain ethnic politics
3) Abiy will be in alliance with tplf to potentially kill and weaken Amhara region

ውሻ አሳዳጊውን አይረሳም እንደሚባለው ፣ በትህነግ ተኬትኩቶ ያድፕገው አብይ እፕሳዳጊውን ሳይረሳ በንፁሀን ደምና ሀዘን ላሳዳጊወቹ ውለታውን መለሰ፣፣

ቱፉ ቱፉ ቱፉ - ለዚህ የመጨረሻ ቆሻሻ እና መሰሪ መሪ ለወሰደው ውሳኔ መላምት ማቅረብ ውሳኔውን እውቅና እንደ መስጠት ይቆጠራል፣፣ No matter what political gains he could get, its untimely and disgraceful


info wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 08:14
Many Ethiopians, including myself, were taken by surprise when they heard the release of TPLF officials such as Sebehat Nega & co. My friends in Addis Ababa told me that everybody is depressed, angry and think this is a mockery of justice. The same feeling is shared by many diasporas that are currently in Ethiopia following the invitation of the PM.

Even though we are all in the dark and could not tell what really is happening but we can try to connect the dots by analyzing some hints that may give us a better picture to understand why the TPLF officials were released.

In my view, the release of TPLF officials and the huge risk PM Abiy is willing to take in the process is a clear indication that not only there has been a serious backdoor negotiation going on between the federal government and TPLF but a deal has already been struck.

What are the clues/dots that point to a possible negotiation/deal between PP and TPLF and what is in the deal?
  • Few days ago, opposition parties in Tigray seem to have got leaked information about the ongoing negotiation between the federal government and TPLF. They were alarmed that TPLF alone is negotiating without including them. They issued a statement demanding they also should be part of the ongoing negotiation.
  • Debretsion on his recent CNN interview talked about "formalization of the secession of hostilities" indicating to an already existing informal negotiation/deal.
  • The high risk the federal government is taking to release TPLF officials Sebehat Nega & Co. This is almost unthinkable without a deal with TPLF. The federal government would have never risked so much just to show some mercy. This is a clear indication that a deal has been struck.
  • PM pouring highly exaggerated military promotions the day after the release of TPLF officials. The timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotions may indicate the PMs attempt to appease the military. But why does he need to appease the military unless there is something that he did or is doing that may not sit well with the military? It looks like he fears some in the military may not be happy about his backdoor negotiation with the TPLF. After all, the war started because of the massacre of ENDF soldiers in Tigray.
  • Getachew Reda today accused the Eritrean president of "sabotaging all peacemaking efforts", indicating there is already some kind of peacemaking effort going on.
  • Getachew Reda in one of his interviews said that the AU mediator Obasanjo asked TPLF to accept Wolkait aka "western Tigray" as part of Gonder just like it was prior to 1991. If true, this gives us a clue what one of the demands of the federal government look like. It seems one of the demands of the federal government is that TPLF accepts that it can't administer Wolkait.
  • In his latest letter to the UN, Debretsion claimed to withdraw his forces from Amhara and Afar and to be ready for peace despite the fact that "western Tigray was still occupied". It seems that he is indirectly saying that TPLF is ready for negotiations and peace process even if Wolkait aka "western Tigray" is not under his administration.

We really don't know for sure what is in the deal but from all the hints and dots we can try to guess what the deal may include.
In my view, the deal seem to include the following:
  • TPLF accepts it can't administer Welkait ("western Tigray") at least until the case is reviewed by the border commission.
  • Amhara region on the other hand accepts Raya waja/azebo ("southern Tigray") to stay in and administered by Tigray. We are hearing from unconfirmed reports that most of ENDF and Amhara special forces have already left or are leaving "southern Tigray" (Alamata, Waja etc.). In my view it is a matter of time until TPLF completely controls the area up to the "official" Amhara-Tigray border.
  • The federal government releases TPLF officials since this was one of the constant demands of TPLF.
  • The federal government also accepts TPLF to administer Tigray. The deal most likely also include the delivery of aid, the resumption of services such as telecom, banking and electricity and may also include indirect budget to Tigray.
The deal, if true, will be hard sell for both PM Abiy/PP and TPLF. Both will have a hard time selling the deal for their supporters. They both will face some kind of resistance. TPLF started the war, sacrificed so much just to end up with less than what it had started. This is a hard sell. PM Abiy also has to do hard selling. Accepting TPLF to administer Tigray after so much sacrifice and destruction will not be an easy task. Both will be under intense pressure in the coming weeks and months. We may also see a leadership/party split in both camps.

In my view there is no best deal in this crisis. Those who reject the negotiation/the deal (from both sides) do not seem to come up with a better alternative other than to continue the war. Continuing the war is no more possible for both the federal government and TPLF. PM Abiy has a vision that is based on economic transformation. He is not like Mengistu that makes war the center of his job. To fulfill his vision, he needs economic development and prosperity. For this purpose he has no other alternative other than to end the war an soon as possible. It seems he is not ready to sacrifice his vision and stuck in the war forever.

TPLF on the other had does not have the resources to wage a conventional war for long. It's out of resources, military supplies and most likely also human resources. The only possibility to continue the war for TPLF is to switch to a guerrilla war of insurgency but that can only work if ENDF was to settle in Tigray, otherwise it has very low chance of success and only cost Tigray for years. TPLF knows it can't force the federal government with insurgency and it can't win a conventional war.

As I said, this is not the best deal as there is no best deal in this crises but at least if this helps to stop the war, I'm ready to accept it. Of course we all know this is can only postpone the war for a later time if things are not settled politically.

DefendTheTruth
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by DefendTheTruth » 10 Jan 2022, 16:16

info wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 11:02
I have never said TPLF withdrew willingly, it was clearly defeated on the battle field. When I say the military promotion was exaggerated, I am not saying ENDF didn't win the war, no I am only pointing to the fact that way too many generals were promoted (over 100) and one was even given a field marshal rank. All this for an army that had struggled to win over a kilil military for over one year, an army that failed to protect civilians from rape, killing and displacement and destruction of property. An army that left thousands of its soldiers as POWs in Tigray.

You don't award 100 generals and a field marshal for an army that struggled to deal with a kilil army for over a year. What would happen if Egypt was to invade? I don't want to disrespect the huge sacrifice our military paid which I am forever thankful. What I am saying is the war most of all revealed not the strength of our army so that its high ranking officers deserve exaggerated promotions but rather the war showed the weakness of the army and the mistakes of the high ranking officers that lead to thousands of POWs and not being able to protect millions.

An army that displays so much weakness needs a much needed reform and capacity building, which I believe is underway, and also self-reflecting to work on its weakness. The last thing it needs is an exaggerated promotion that will only hide the many serious mistakes the officers did.

Thus, the timing and the exaggerated nature of the promotion seem to have more to do with the backdoor negotiation with the TPLF.
I don't think it was "a kilil military", it took over around 80 or more % of the total armament of the nation, it demobilized the major part of the military (its heavy weight), in what was dubbed መብረቃዊ ማጥቃት, well planned ahead, the nation was caught up in a big surprise and it was just a moment's notice apart from its disintegration. We were spared by miracle, said General Bacha Debele in one of his comments I heard somewhere recently.

Then the national defense force was left to fight to the death to save itself and the nation from an epic catastrophe, it succeeded because it was fighting without fearing anything more to lose. The 3 weeks' march of the NDF to Mekele and topple the junta was not something that happened by mere accident. It was out of sheer determination and resolve to fight to the end, nothing is more heroic than this, I think.

Then there was also the factor that the military was given afterwards, after conquering Mekele, the extra task of pacifying the region, where the bulk of the fighting force of the ragtag junta simply put off its uniform and put on the civilian closthes and dispersed itself among the civilian population and immediately started to reorganize itself, recruit new fighters while disguising itself as civilian population and sabotaging the efforts of the military. The military was not prepared to police the well trained and disguising "civil population".

There is a comment made by senior government officials or the military which said something like "when we were marching to topple the junta, the public showed us its support, but that support dwindled and disappeared the more we stayed there". You can figure out what that means on the ground.

The junta prepared itself well and immediately started to attack, a unit at a time, but also in many different places concurrently. This was another surprise attack on the military. It has weakened the military further, which was also subjected by global malicious propaganda of committing war crime and other kinds of propaganda warfare.

Many lost their lives instead of shooting "civilians" in this way. This is also heroism, in my view at least.

Tigreans opted to side with their "sons and daughters" and exposed the rest of the country's children to danger, who were kept there to protect them for decades, in what amounted to utmost savagery. Ethiopia's children were massacred one more time in the hands of those "civilian population" in Tigray.

Ethiopia's NDF didn't sit around but immediately started to rebuild itself and prepare itself to yet greateter challenge the country was facing, the danger was not only from the ragtag junta, but also Egypt and Sudan were conducting constant and joint military derails near the Ethiopian border.

The whole scenario was scaring to say the least. International pressure was also mounting at the same time, it was more or less the dark hours for our nation.

Thank to the meticulous planning and execution of the counter offensive from the side of the naional defense forces in less than 6 months Ethiopia was once again in a position to hit back, hit harder even this time around.

This didn't happen by chance, it took a lot of military and other civilian expertise to realise and as such what they earned as award or recoginition was never too much in my view.

This has been what I have been following from distance, I am not a military expert. Still I can sense the danger this nation made through over the last more than 1 year's time. We prevailed!

We owe them the utmost gratitude for their sacrifices and giving us (defending) our liberty, the most precious commodity we can aspire to have.

info
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by info » 10 Jan 2022, 16:24

The PM asks Ethiopians to take time and meditate on his hard to sell decision which he called "medicine" and promises that it is the best for the country which I agree unless someone shows me a better alternative. And in my view, as long as Wolkait remains under Amhara administration, the backlash from Amhara region will not be significant.


Roha
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Roha » 10 Jan 2022, 16:32

Assuming, the dots are "connected" partly correct as above, the question is that why did the Tigrayan TPLF leadership start such a futile and destructive war which has put Tigray in the worst political, economic, territorial and military situation? Tigray is now set back about 20 years in the past and this slide will get worse. Who will take responsibility for this? Tigrayans need to ask very hard questions because the ordinary Tigrayan has benefited nothing. A single totalitarian leader can make mistakes in military adventures but how can a group of experienced veteran Tigrayan political leaders that includes such Seyoum Mesfin, Sibhat Nega, Abay Woldu, Abay Tsehaye, Tsadkan W Tensae, wedi Werede ... mess it up.
The Tigrayans could have received more than this without firing a single shot.
This war for Tigrayans was the march of folly.

Few days ago, I posted -
The 1991 to 2020 of Tigrayan hegemony on Ethiopian politics is over. The sun is already setting down on Tigray.
For a minority ethnic group representing about 5% of Ethiopia's 115 million people, Tigrayans had a 28 years of everything in Ethiopia.
That Tigrayan era is over, and unless a young generation of Tigrayans with new ideas emerge in TDF's leadership, the downhill march to poverty, wars, suffering, starvation and the degradation of Tigrayans will accelerate. What Tigrayans need now is not war, it is rather new ideas that can replace the old and tattered TPLF politics.

Abe Abraham
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Jan 2022, 17:02

Roha wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 16:32
Assuming, the dots are "connected" partly correct as above, the question is that why did the Tigrayan TPLF leadership start such a futile and destructive war which has put Tigray in the worst political, economic, territorial and military situation? Tigray is now set back about 20 years in the past and this slide will get worse. Who will take responsibility for this? Tigrayans need to ask very hard questions because the ordinary Tigrayan has benefited nothing. A single totalitarian leader can make mistakes in military adventures but how can a group of experienced veteran Tigrayan political leaders that includes such Seyoum Mesfin, Sibhat Nega, Abay Woldu, Abay Tsehaye, Tsadkan W Tensae, wedi Werede ... mess it up.
The Tigrayans could have received more than this without firing a single shot.

This war for Tigrayans was the march of folly.

Few days ago, I posted -
The 1991 to 2020 of Tigrayan hegemony on Ethiopian politics is over. The sun is already setting down on Tigray.
For a minority ethnic group representing about 5% of Ethiopia's 115 million people, Tigrayans had a 28 years of everything in Ethiopia.
That Tigrayan era is over, and unless a young generation of Tigrayans with new ideas emerge in TDF's leadership, the downhill march to poverty, wars, suffering, starvation and the degradation of Tigrayans will accelerate. What Tigrayans need now is not war, it is rather new ideas that can replace the old and tattered TPLF politics.
Roha,

You put it succinctly : This war for Tigrayans was the march of folly.

DefendTheTruth
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Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by DefendTheTruth » 10 Jan 2022, 17:04

Roha wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 16:32
Assuming, the dots are "connected" partly correct as above, the question is that why did the Tigrayan TPLF leadership start such a futile and destructive war which has put Tigray in the worst political, economic, territorial and military situation? Tigray is now set back about 20 years in the past and this slide will get worse. Who will take responsibility for this? Tigrayans need to ask very hard questions because the ordinary Tigrayan has benefited nothing. A single totalitarian leader can make mistakes in military adventures but how can a group of experienced veteran Tigrayan political leaders that includes such Seyoum Mesfin, Sibhat Nega, Abay Woldu, Abay Tsehaye, Tsadkan W Tensae, wedi Werede ... mess it up.
The Tigrayans could have received more than this without firing a single shot.
This war for Tigrayans was the march of folly.

Few days ago, I posted -
The 1991 to 2020 of Tigrayan hegemony on Ethiopian politics is over. The sun is already setting down on Tigray.
For a minority ethnic group representing about 5% of Ethiopia's 115 million people, Tigrayans had a 28 years of everything in Ethiopia.
That Tigrayan era is over, and unless a young generation of Tigrayans with new ideas emerge in TDF's leadership, the downhill march to poverty, wars, suffering, starvation and the degradation of Tigrayans will accelerate. What Tigrayans need now is not war, it is rather new ideas that can replace the old and tattered TPLF politics.
I wanted to logout but then saw your post and the part I highlighted catched my eyes, above all. Everything you said is right in my view.

I am afraid that is the actual trap, there is a saying in Afan Oromo and also Amharic which goes like "a guest who arives in the host's house on holidays thinks everything will be the same everyday". On a holiday you will be served everything and it is all festive, but on normal days you have to be prepared to have a time that is not so gracious, if you are wise, goes the message.

Their tactic of divide and conquer worked and they were made millioners in a very short time, everything was in their hands, they were the shakers and movers in all aspects of life of the nation. They used those who readily implemented their orders and what the passed on them from top in all parts of the country.

After such a lavishly time of their government's period of nearly 30 years, it will be difficult to get to used to any other conditions, so something must be "rectified" to restore the old way of life.

This is in my view the only way I can try to understand the way the group operated ever since it lost the power at the center.

Now they are most wanted criminals or dead bodies, above all Tigrean children are suffering, may be for many years to come. What they are losing today can't be regained in over-night, even if they may start to work hard to gain it back.


ጄኔራሉ ወዶ አይደለም። ይህ በዘራቺዉ አይድረስ ያለዉ፣ እንደምመስለኝ።

Abe Abraham
Senior Member
Posts: 11599
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Jan 2022, 17:15

DefendTheTruth wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 17:04
Roha wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 16:32
Assuming, the dots are "connected" partly correct as above, the question is that why did the Tigrayan TPLF leadership start such a futile and destructive war which has put Tigray in the worst political, economic, territorial and military situation? Tigray is now set back about 20 years in the past and this slide will get worse. Who will take responsibility for this? Tigrayans need to ask very hard questions because the ordinary Tigrayan has benefited nothing. A single totalitarian leader can make mistakes in military adventures but how can a group of experienced veteran Tigrayan political leaders that includes such Seyoum Mesfin, Sibhat Nega, Abay Woldu, Abay Tsehaye, Tsadkan W Tensae, wedi Werede ... mess it up.
The Tigrayans could have received more than this without firing a single shot.
This war for Tigrayans was the march of folly.

Few days ago, I posted -
The 1991 to 2020 of Tigrayan hegemony on Ethiopian politics is over. The sun is already setting down on Tigray.
For a minority ethnic group representing about 5% of Ethiopia's 115 million people, Tigrayans had a 28 years of everything in Ethiopia.
That Tigrayan era is over, and unless a young generation of Tigrayans with new ideas emerge in TDF's leadership, the downhill march to poverty, wars, suffering, starvation and the degradation of Tigrayans will accelerate. What Tigrayans need now is not war, it is rather new ideas that can replace the old and tattered TPLF politics.
I wanted to logout but then saw your post and the part I highlighted catched my eyes, above all. Everything you said is right in my view.

I am afraid that is the actual trap, there is a saying in Afan Oromo and also Amharic which goes like "a guest who arives in the host's house on holidays thinks everything will be the same everyday". On a holiday you will be served everything and it is all festive, but on normal days you have to be prepared to have a time that is not so gracious, if you are wise, goes the message.

Their tactic of divide and conquer worked and they were made millioners in a very short time, everything was in their hands, they were the shakers and movers in all aspects of life of the nation. They used those who readily implemented their orders and what the passed on them from top in all parts of the country.

After such a lavishly time of their government's period of nearly 30 years, it will be difficult to get to used to any other conditions, so something must be "rectified" to restore the old way of life.

This is in my view the only way I can try to understand the way the group operated ever since it lost the power at the center.

Now they are most wanted criminals or dead bodies, above all Tigrean children are suffering, may be for many years to come. What they are losing today can't be regained in over-night, even if they may start to work hard to gain it back.


ጄኔራሉ ወዶ አይደለም። ይህ በዘራቺዉ አይድረስ ያለዉ፣ እንደምመስለኝ።
They are wanted by the Ethiopian government,people and PMAA.

Educator
Member
Posts: 916
Joined: 03 Jun 2021, 00:14

Re: The deal! Connecting the dots and making sense of the release of TPLF officials.

Post by Educator » 10 Jan 2022, 19:20

I hate reading your posts here because it is always trying to defend Mamo Kilo at any cost. You are the other side of Horus even though his arguments are always the most stupid of all that nature allows.
DefendTheTruth wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 16:16

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