Germany, EU, UK, USA believe that the Tigray War has developed into a protracted regional war. And they are demanding Ethiopia to peacefully resolve the war and allow all civilians (including the ones outside the Federal Government rule) caught up in the fighting must receive humanitarian assistance. So far Abiy has chosen the Eritrean Way by continuing the war for the fourth month. Zemen has explained what the Eritrean Way entails in detail.temari wrote: ↑23 Feb 2021, 11:48sarcasm, I don't think the statement of a member of Germany's Left Party is much of a value. Eva-Maria Schreiber is member of Germany's Left Party that is an opposition party forever (never been in a governing coalition) and currently has less than 10% seats in parliament. The party is an idealist pacifist party which opposes any wars and even wants Germany to exit from NATO. That is why it is not taken seriously and until now no other party wanted to govern with it for being too idealist and not realist.
In my view Germany will not so easily drop Ethiopia from its reform partner status unless PM Abiy's government does willingly go against the democratization process. The election set to be executed soon with EU observers invited, I highly doubt Germany and other western countries will do seriously disturb their current relations with Ethiopia.
sarcasm wrote: ↑23 Feb 2021, 09:24German-Ethiopian relations suffer over Tigray
Germany would like a good relationship with Ethiopia, but the Tigray crisis is straining ties. Berlin has relied on diplomacy to push for peace, yet some say that is not enough.
A call from German Chancellor Angela Merkel is bound to be about something important. When she called Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in early February this year, for example, she stressed how vital it was to find a peaceful resolution to the Tigray conflict, according to her spokesman, Steffen Seibert. The German leader also said civilians caught up in the fighting must receive humanitarian assistance.
Merkel's call was the biggest indication of Germany's concern about the crisis so far, though in late November, just weeks after fighting began, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas met with his counterpart in Berlin to discuss what was happening in Tigray. At the time, Maas called the suffering "shocking" and demanded that "crimes against the civilian population be investigated and those guilty of them held accountable."
Humanitarian catastrophe
None of these appeals has so far helped deescalate the conflict. On the contrary, the situation in the crisis region has deteriorated further. What began in November 2020 as a short military intervention against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has since developed into a protracted regional conflict.
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Ethiopia is at a crossroads. The two choices are: 1, the Eritrean way 2, the peaceful / negotiated way.
Other politicians and community and social elite are saying that the peaceful / negotiated way is the better choice. For example, Ato Lidetu is saying "የትግራይ ጉዳይ በሰላምና በውይይት መፈታት አለበት። መጀመርያ ይሄ Cessation of hostilities መምጣት አለበት፤ የጥላቻ ፕሮፖጋንዳ በሁለቱም ወገን መቆም አለበት።" Michael Shiferaw also said "[በትግራይ ጦርነት] መፍትሔው ፤ የመዳኛው ብቸኛ መንገድ ደግሞ ፤ እየተጠላላህም፤ ደም ከተቃባህም በኃላ ተመልሰህ ፤ ቁጭ ብለህ መነጋገር ብቻ ነው።" Ethiopia cannot choose the Eritrean Way and expect to keep budgetary financial assistance at the same time. Everybody wants Dr Abiy to choose the peaceful negotiated way sooner as the death toll and the economic cost of the war are rising by the day.
President Isaias has made his mind up. He made it clear in his last interview that he expects the sanctions, isolation and international criticisms to start very soon. Dr Abiy has so far chosen the Eritrean Way. Will he continue on the Eritrean Way or change course? Time will tell. He has to do his cost benefit analysis because the Eritrean Way will come with the risk of sanctions, isolation and heavy economic costs. He has to convince the public that he has costed the human and financial cost of the Eritrean way and how it is less costly than the peaceful way. But you cannot expect him to have his cake and eat it too.