Mereja Forum

[Dawi]

Do you think Abiy was kidding when he said Ethiopia shall be 1-3 world power in 30 years? Think again!

Wall Street has started trading in water futures contracts, just like gold, oil and basic commodities, coinciding with the stalled negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which raises the question of whether Egypt will agree to sell the Nile waters.


Jan 6, 2021

CAIRO — As of Dec. 8, Wall Street started trading futures contracts in water, just as it does in gold, oil and basic commodities. This is the first time trading in water as a commodity has taken place in any stock market.

This comes at a time when negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) are at a standstill, which raises the question of whether Egypt will agree to sell Nile waters.

The three Nile Basin countries have been engaged in laborious negotiations to agree on mechanisms of filling and operating the GERD, which Addis Ababa began building on the Blue Nile in 2011. No binding legal agreement has been reached yet due to Ethiopia’s insistence on filling the dam without reaching an agreement with the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan.

On Dec. 15, Sudan and Ethiopia agreed to resume the faltering negotiations after Sudan had boycotted a round of talks in mid-November in objection to the negotiation approach between Egypt and Ethiopia.

There are no previous agreements on pricing and selling water between countries. Yet Turkey had vainly attempted to sell water to Israel and Gulf states through the Peace Water project, a pipeline that crosses through the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Attempts of the Nile Basin countries for water sale and pricing also failed.

Egyptian TV host Ahmed Moussa, who is close to the government, said back in January on Sada el-Balad satellite channel that “Ethiopia wants all the Blue Nile water, and it also wants to sell water to Egypt. But Egypt will not take this lying down.”

Ahmad al-Fata, a Sudanese international law expert and former member of the GERD negotiations team in Khartoum, believes Ethiopia will not sign a binding agreement on the operation and filling of the GERD in order to avoid any commitments that would hinder its plans to control Nile waters. Ethiopia, according to Fata, also seeks to impose a de facto policy and price and sell water to Egypt and Sudan.

Egypt's former Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Mona Omar told Al-Monitor that pricing and selling Nile water is not a new idea and could be proposed again. She said Ethiopia had already suggested to Egypt, before the construction of the GERD, selling water to Israel. Egypt refused this suggestion and managed to convince the African countries that Nile water is a right to life rather than a tradable commodity, and cooperation and understanding are the only means to development, Omar said.

She added that Ethiopia still wants to control, sell and price Nile waters regardless of the potential harm to Egypt and Sudan and their citizens’ lives and national security, which violates international law.

Omar continued, “Egypt will not accept to sell Nile water, and it has so far succeeded in standing its ground. The current disputes in negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan revolve around the GERD operation and management and storage in times of drought and extended drought. The pricing and selling of water is not currently on the table.”

She noted that the internal conflict raging in Ethiopia’s Tigray region for over a month now is behind the faltering and frozen GERD negotiations. She believes stability in Ethiopia is important in order to move forward with a binding, written, legal agreement that states Ethiopia will not harm Egypt’s and Sudan’s rights to Nile waters in order to preserve water security. The binding agreement would also include Ethiopia’s commitment not to begin filling the GERD reservoir during drought periods.

Hani Raslan, head of the Nile Basin Studies at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, believes that trading in water futures contracts for the first time in the US stock market is a dangerous indicator of trading in Nile waters. For around two decades, there has been a global inclination to shift attention to water as a human right and a rare commodity, like oil and petroleum, which must be preserved and developed, he said, adding that this idea is discussed at international water conferences.

Raslan told Al-Monitor, “Ethiopia considers the Blue Nile water the lake of Ethiopia, which was expressed by its former Minister of Foreign Affairs Gedu Andargachew on July 22 on his Twitter account. For that reason, it began filling the GERD despite failing to reach an agreement with Egypt and Sudan, in violation of international law. It did not stop there, but it is also considering building three other dams — Caradobi, Mandaia and Bica-abo — to seize a further 200 billion cubic meters, which puts Egypt at risk of water shortage and drought.”

He added, “If Ethiopia is able to proceed with filling the GERD and building the other three planned dams, then it can transform ​​selling and pricing the Nile water into a fait accompli and start implementing it. But Egypt will not accept such a step in any way because it is beyond its economic potential. It also violates international law that is on the side of Egypt, which is facing serious harm and threat to the lives of more than 100 million people who depend on fresh water.”

He accused Egypt of failing to take a decisive stance on Ethiopia's repeated refusal to sign a binding agreement on the operation and filling of the GERD, whereby Ethiopia would commit not to harm the water interests of Egypt and Sudan and not to build new dams before an agreement is signed with the two countries. Addis Ababa refuses such an agreement, considering it an interference in its national security and sovereignty.

Former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed Nasr Allam believes that water trade on the US stock market is a purely local matter and far from new. Water sale and purchase have been around since the 1970s when water quotas were distributed to be used in agriculture, he said. Trading in water on the stock market is the new aspect, but it cannot be generalized on agreements between countries because it did not happen and international law is the regulating authority, according to Allam.

He told Al-Monitor, “There were previous repeated demands from the Nile Basin countries to sell and price water, but Egypt has been categorically opposed to the idea because it constitutes a grave threat to its national security.

Dia El Din Ahmed Hussein El-Quosy, adviser to the former minister of irrigation and water resources, said that Egypt cannot accept the idea of ​​selling and pricing Nile waters because it is harmful. Egypt depends on the Nile to meet more than 90% of its needs and does not have alternative sources to compensate for that. Egypt’s economic capacities do not allow it to purchase its water needs. Therefore, this idea is unlikely.

He told Al-Monitor, “South Africa’s mediation to sponsor the tripartite negotiations on the Ethiopian dam was not successful due to its siding with Ethiopia at the expense of Egypt and Sudan. As a result, the negotiations froze more than once, and a binding agreement was not reached.”

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... z6jAe1FY00

[Abe Abraham]

Do you think Abiy was kidding when he said Ethiopia shall be 1-3 world power in 30 years? Think again!

Wall Street has started trading in water futures contracts, just like gold, oil and basic commodities, coinciding with the stalled negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which raises the question of whether Egypt will agree to sell the Nile waters.


Jan 6, 2021

CAIRO — As of Dec. 8, Wall Street started trading futures contracts in water, just as it does in gold, oil and basic commodities. This is the first time trading in water as a commodity has taken place in any stock market.

This comes at a time when negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) are at a standstill, which raises the question of whether Egypt will agree to sell Nile waters.

The three Nile Basin countries have been engaged in laborious negotiations to agree on mechanisms of filling and operating the GERD, which Addis Ababa began building on the Blue Nile in 2011. No binding legal agreement has been reached yet due to Ethiopia’s insistence on filling the dam without reaching an agreement with the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan.

On Dec. 15, Sudan and Ethiopia agreed to resume the faltering negotiations after Sudan had boycotted a round of talks in mid-November in objection to the negotiation approach between Egypt and Ethiopia.

There are no previous agreements on pricing and selling water between countries. Yet Turkey had vainly attempted to sell water to Israel and Gulf states through the Peace Water project, a pipeline that crosses through the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Attempts of the Nile Basin countries for water sale and pricing also failed.

Egyptian TV host Ahmed Moussa, who is close to the government, said back in January on Sada el-Balad satellite channel that “Ethiopia wants all the Blue Nile water, and it also wants to sell water to Egypt. But Egypt will not take this lying down.”

Ahmad al-Fata, a Sudanese international law expert and former member of the GERD negotiations team in Khartoum, believes Ethiopia will not sign a binding agreement on the operation and filling of the GERD in order to avoid any commitments that would hinder its plans to control Nile waters. Ethiopia, according to Fata, also seeks to impose a de facto policy and price and sell water to Egypt and Sudan.

Egypt's former Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Mona Omar told Al-Monitor that pricing and selling Nile water is not a new idea and could be proposed again. She said Ethiopia had already suggested to Egypt, before the construction of the GERD, selling water to Israel. Egypt refused this suggestion and managed to convince the African countries that Nile water is a right to life rather than a tradable commodity, and cooperation and understanding are the only means to development, Omar said.

She added that Ethiopia still wants to control, sell and price Nile waters regardless of the potential harm to Egypt and Sudan and their citizens’ lives and national security, which violates international law.

Omar continued, “Egypt will not accept to sell Nile water, and it has so far succeeded in standing its ground. The current disputes in negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan revolve around the GERD operation and management and storage in times of drought and extended drought. The pricing and selling of water is not currently on the table.”

She noted that the internal conflict raging in Ethiopia’s Tigray region for over a month now is behind the faltering and frozen GERD negotiations. She believes stability in Ethiopia is important in order to move forward with a binding, written, legal agreement that states Ethiopia will not harm Egypt’s and Sudan’s rights to Nile waters in order to preserve water security. The binding agreement would also include Ethiopia’s commitment not to begin filling the GERD reservoir during drought periods.

Hani Raslan, head of the Nile Basin Studies at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, believes that trading in water futures contracts for the first time in the US stock market is a dangerous indicator of trading in Nile waters. For around two decades, there has been a global inclination to shift attention to water as a human right and a rare commodity, like oil and petroleum, which must be preserved and developed, he said, adding that this idea is discussed at international water conferences.

Raslan told Al-Monitor, “Ethiopia considers the Blue Nile water the lake of Ethiopia, which was expressed by its former Minister of Foreign Affairs Gedu Andargachew on July 22 on his Twitter account. For that reason, it began filling the GERD despite failing to reach an agreement with Egypt and Sudan, in violation of international law. It did not stop there, but it is also considering building three other dams — Caradobi, Mandaia and Bica-abo — to seize a further 200 billion cubic meters, which puts Egypt at risk of water shortage and drought.”

He added, “If Ethiopia is able to proceed with filling the GERD and building the other three planned dams, then it can transform ​​selling and pricing the Nile water into a fait accompli and start implementing it. But Egypt will not accept such a step in any way because it is beyond its economic potential. It also violates international law that is on the side of Egypt, which is facing serious harm and threat to the lives of more than 100 million people who depend on fresh water.”

He accused Egypt of failing to take a decisive stance on Ethiopia's repeated refusal to sign a binding agreement on the operation and filling of the GERD, whereby Ethiopia would commit not to harm the water interests of Egypt and Sudan and not to build new dams before an agreement is signed with the two countries. Addis Ababa refuses such an agreement, considering it an interference in its national security and sovereignty.

Former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed Nasr Allam believes that water trade on the US stock market is a purely local matter and far from new. Water sale and purchase have been around since the 1970s when water quotas were distributed to be used in agriculture, he said. Trading in water on the stock market is the new aspect, but it cannot be generalized on agreements between countries because it did not happen and international law is the regulating authority, according to Allam.

He told Al-Monitor, “There were previous repeated demands from the Nile Basin countries to sell and price water, but Egypt has been categorically opposed to the idea because it constitutes a grave threat to its national security.

Dia El Din Ahmed Hussein El-Quosy, adviser to the former minister of irrigation and water resources, said that Egypt cannot accept the idea of ​​selling and pricing Nile waters because it is harmful. Egypt depends on the Nile to meet more than 90% of its needs and does not have alternative sources to compensate for that. Egypt’s economic capacities do not allow it to purchase its water needs. Therefore, this idea is unlikely.

He told Al-Monitor, “South Africa’s mediation to sponsor the tripartite negotiations on the Ethiopian dam was not successful due to its siding with Ethiopia at the expense of Egypt and Sudan. As a result, the negotiations froze more than once, and a binding agreement was not reached.”

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... z6jAe1FY00

There is no serious journalism in Egypt. I would only take Hani Raslan seriously. He is an intellectual and different from other Egyptians.

Egypt wants to put Ethiopia in jail for perpetuity and make it sign for it. If Ethiopia doesn't sign the Egyptians believe that they could always rely upon their friends in Ethiopia.

There are lots of them starting from Mengistu , Meles, Junta ....others like them who want to start a big conflagration in our region.

[Ethoash]

Do you think Abiy was kidding when he said Ethiopia shall be 1-3 world power in 30 years? Think again!

Wall Street has started trading in water futures contracts, just like gold, oil and basic commodities, coinciding with the stalled negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which raises the question of whether Egypt will agree to sell the Nile waters.

Egypt sell water to whom??

Dawit ,

Ethiopia coffee trading in Wall Street but nothing drop for Ethiopia .. now you want to trade our water for what... i will give u one example green coffee is raw material if u sell raw coffee u dont make money but if u process the coffee and sell coffee then u can make ten time the amount of green coffee in raw. the African problem is selling raw. for example we sell our orange and import orange juice which one is ten time the price ... we sell oil seed and buy or import oil seed oil .. when we going to stop this BS.

water and electric also is the same we have to sell the finial product if we want to make ten time the raw water price... i give u an example for example any firm need electric power to pump water.. and we use water to grow orange of teff or rice once we grow those food we use electric power to process the food and we pack it and sell it around the world .. but if we try to sell our pure water we will be limited .. if we want to sell our electric power we will be limited but if we tell Egypt and any investors come to Ethiopia we will sell u water for free or electric power for free as long as you invest one billion dollar we will be supermarket to the world .... i know it might surprise u when i said free electric power as long as they invest inside Ethiopia ... that is what Singapore did they give away free port and the rest is history.

[Zmeselo]

Gold is nothing more, than a luxury item. Water, on the other hand, is a God given natural resource for survival. Privatizing that is simply sick, & a sign of the disgusting world we're living in.

[Dawi]

Ethiosh & Zmeselo,

I felt this proposal gives appropriate answers to the greed and ignorance of Egypt and Sudan. The following article mentions:

"The unit of measure represents the amount of water required to submerge one acre of land in one foot of water—equivalent to about 325,851 gallons of water. Each futures contract based on the index will represent 10 acre-feet of water"

Not to mention Egypt's, Sudan has potential vast land to irrigate commercially; so, Ethiopia appropriately supplying and getting compensated in some form for water by UAE, Saudia, Egypt & others privately owned/planned farms is fair to all.

The ordinary public can continue to receive "free" water. Off course, nothing is "free"; Ethiopia's landscape need to be maintained by planting trees and so on. Cleaning Tana lake for instance, is very costly to us. There should be some kind of considerations through negotiations in handling shared expenses of Abbay River by all beneficiaries.

We should closely watch Turkey's approach in negotiating with Israel. We already know there's a Nile water pipeline built from Egypt to Israel. How is Egypt compensated?

"You have two cows. You have to take care of them, but the Mafia takes all the milk"? Enough is Enough!


Commodities Corner
Why we need water futures
Published: Sept. 24, 2020 at 3:56 p.m. ET
By Myra P. Saefong
2
CME, Nasdaq to launch water futures in Q4

Investors will be able to make wagers on the price of water later this year with the launch of futures contracts, which are expected to better balance supply and demand for the commodity and hedge price risks.

“The water sector had long wished for some market structure for price discovery and the ability to hedge risk,” says Deane Dray , a managing director and multi-industry analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “If this new futures contract shows promise, it could spawn more innovation in the futures market related to water.”

CME Group CME, 0.20% and Nasdaq NDAQ, 0.65% announced a plan on Sept. 17 to launch the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index futures contract, which will have a settlement price based on its namesake index, late in the fourth quarter of this year, pending a regulatory review.

The contract will allow investors to hedge price risks in the spot water market and better manage price swings, says Tim McCourt, CME Group’s global head of equity products and alternative investments.

The index, itself, sets a weekly spot rate price of water rights in California, the majority of which are owned and managed by water districts that deliver water to individual farms, says Clay Landry , managing director at consulting firm WestWater Research, which provides the data used to calculate the index. Some farms own water rights directly, he says; other water-rights owners include municipalities, industrial companies, water utilities, and tribes.

On Sept. 23, the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index set the weekly spot price of water rights at $510.99 per one acre-foot. The unit of measure represents the amount of water required to submerge one acre of land in one foot of water—equivalent to about 325,851 gallons of water. Each futures contract based on the index will represent 10 acre-feet of water.

The index is “reflective of arm’s-length economic efforts to determine fair value” for water, says Patrick Wolf, lead product developer with Nasdaq Global Information Services. The focus on the California market offers both relevance and robustness in the depth and breadth of participants and the value of transactions, he says.

Wolf points out that the index is up markedly this year following an extremely dry winter in California, with February 2020 marking the driest February for the state in at least 100 years.

For commodities, “supply conditions are extremely variable year to year, and the relative scarcity of water is what determines price,” Wolf says. Future price risk is a key feature of the California water market, and this index “captures and distills that risk in real time.” Whether the index is “substantially up or down, it is adding tremendous value to the marketplace.”

Year to date, the index value has doubled, boasting a return of more than 100%.

The water futures contract will be specific to prices in California, a state that the CME’s McCourt refers to as having among the “most active and dynamic water markets” in the U.S. California saw more than $1.1 billion in water-market activity last year, he says, and having a “robust, transparent futures market can help more efficiently align supply and demand of this vital resource,” which may, in turn, help consumers.

RBC’s Dray, meanwhile, points out that “what California is paying for water has little relevance for other parts of the country.” He also expresses skepticism about the new contract, saying water futures would be a niche “unlikely to generate enough open interest,” or volume of contracts, “to support a reliable forward-pricing model.”

Still, Dray said he and his team will examine this new security more closely, “to see what the potential might be.”

[Ethoash]

Gold is nothing more, than a luxury item. Water, on the other hand, is a God given natural resource for survival. Privatizing that is simply sick, & a sign of the disgusting world we're living in.

Zmeselo,

u r light weight it is better to limit yourself with cut and paste ....yes you need water to survive ... but you r talking about primitive time to day to have a drinking water you need money who going to carry your water if u dont have money and have tap-water.. የባንቦ ውሃ ከሌለህ. on the other hand Gold measure the value of your wealth... acceptable by all ... for example if you have birr or Nakfa the value limited to Ethiopia but if u have gold from Ethiopia or Eritrea you can sale it any where in the world and the value hold truth .. this means it measure your wealth .... so dont think Gold only used for luxury item ... even high technology like your cell phone work with gold ...


let me stop here and let me talk to my dear Dawit...

ዳዊት አንድ የሳትከው ነገር ቢኖር የአባይ ውሃ በሙሉ የኢትዬዽያ ይመስልሀል ግን አይደለም ። ውሃው የግብፅም ነው የሱዳንም ነው የኢትዬዽያኖችም ነው። ወንዙ አባይ በአገራችን ድንበር ውስጥ እያለ ብቻ ነው የኢትዬዽያ ወንዝ የሚሆነው ከዚያ የሱዳንን ድንበር ሲሻገር የሱዳን ውንዝ ይሆናል ከዚያ ግብፅ ሲገባ ደግሞ የግብፅ ውሃ ይሆናል። ስለዚህ የራሳቸውን ውሃ ነው እንሽጥላችሁ የምትላቸው ። ተካፍለን እንብላ አንድ ነገር ግን ለኛ ገንዘብ ክፈሉን ውሃው ከኛ ስለሚመነጭ የኛም ስለሆነ ማለት አንድ ነገር ። ነገርም ጦርነትም መፈለግ ነው። እኛም አብረን እናንተን ሳንጎዳ እንጠቀም ደግሞ ወርቃም አባባል ነው። ተሳስተህም አባይ የኢትዬዽያ ነው ማለት የለብህም ። ለዛው ጤዛ ነሽ እንኳንም ዘንቦብሽ ተብሎዋል ሲተረት እንኩዋን አባይ የኛ ነው ብለሀቸው እሁንም ኢትዬዽያ አባይ የኔ ነው ትላለች ፊት ክስጠናት ስለዚህ ምንም ትብብር አናርግ እያሉ ጦርነት ቀዝቃዛ ጦርነት ከከፈቱብን ሺሆች አመታታ አልፈዋል። ስለዚህ ይህ በጣም የሚያስጋቸው ጉዳይ ነውና መጠንቀቅ አለባቸው።

ግብፆች ለምን ዛፍ ኢትዬዽያ ውስጥ አይተክሉም ላልከው ይህ ሲስለጥኑና ሲገባቸው የሚያረጉት ነገር ነው። ሁሉም ነገር ቀርቶብን ውሃን በአግባቡ ቢጠቀሙ ውሃን በመስኖ ከሚያጠጡ በእንጥብጣብ ቢያጠጡ ። ውሃውን ባያቆሽሹ ትልቅ ድጋፍ ነው።

ሌላው ደግሞ ብዙ ሰው የረሳው ነገር ግብፅ አዲስ ከተማ መስራቱዋ ነው። ለዚህ አዲስ ከተማ ውሃው ኬት ይመጣል ከድርሻዋ በላይ ልተውስድ ነው ወይ እኛም እንደነሱ ከተማውን እናፈነዳለን ካላቆማቹሁ ብንል እንልም ። እንደውም መስራቱንም ቅም የሚለን አይመስልም ። ግን ግብፅ ይህ እንዲገባት መነገር አለባት እሱዋ ውሃ የሚቀንስ ፕሮጀክት እየስራች እኛ ደግሞ ውሃውን መቀነስ ሳይሆን ውሃውን ለሀይል ማመንጫ እንጠቀም ስላልን እንጠጥ እንጠጥ ማለቱዋ ይገርማል።

ግን ይህ ሁሉ አይችግርህ ሱዳን አባይ ግድብ የተስራበት መሬት የኔ ነው ብላለች ። በቅርብ ግዜ የሱዳን ግዛት ይሆናልና ግድቡንም ደህና ስንብት ብትለው ይሻላል። አማራ ፈሪ ነው ። ኦሮሞ ሱዳን ጋራ የሚጣላበት ጉዳይ የለምና አንድ አማራ እንዴት ብሎ ነው ሱዳንን የሚመክተው። አሁን እንኳን ትግሬዎችን ወግተውላቸው አማሮች ስድባቸው ምንም አልተሻለም። ስለዚህ ኦሮሞ እሁን ካልነቃ ምንግዜም አይነቃም።