Mereja Forum

[Misraq]

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After loosing countless battles in Gojjam, Shoa and Wollo, which includes defection of countless higher ranking ENDF soldiers to Fano, Abiy knows knock knock on 4 killo is enevitable and is a matter of when. With that, he is now playing the final card of Welkayt. TDF is now in ENDF uniform and is entering Welkayt while active order is in display that tells the welkayt militia to disarm.

This is expected. Oromuma kept that card for so long and needed to bog Amharas in Welkayt and Raya affairs so that it can find a breathing space in the rest of Amhara particularly Gojjam where pretty much every youth is active in the rebellion.

TPLF is once more making a huge mistake for assuming that they can take over with the assistance of ENDF. But in actuallity, this is a blessing in disguise for the following two reasons

1) Much of Semien Gonder inculding central Gonder have been dormant for the last 10 months where the rest of Amhara was busy dismantling PP structures. They will now have a reason to react and engage both ENDF and TDF in gueralla attacks

2) This all dramma won't make any sense at all for the remaining active ENDF high ranking officials. They could easily be persuaded to defect.

Fano amhara anywhere is known for courage and skill. there will be additional 100k death for the so called TDF who is coming with ember tengadalay

[TGAA]

At the end of the war, Abiy made a calculated decision based on two key factors. Firstly, he acknowledged the significant weakening of the TPLF both spiritually and militarily, thereby reducing their threat to his power. Secondly, recognizing their strategic similarities, he believed they could be persuaded to assume a subservient position through concessions. At the sometime , the resolute role played by the Amharas, both within the military and through the Amhara special forces and Fanos, coupled with their political ambitions aimed at curbing Abiy's Oromouma-centric political agenda, led Abiy to perceive a looming threat that required swift action.

Prior to the war's conclusion, Abiy began addressing the perceived Fano threat, as the need for law and order to disarm Amharas. Immediately, he appointed Abraham Belay as Defense Minister to establish a secure communication channel between himself and the TPLF. Abraham's coordination efforts were transparent, as Abiy also replaced Geduu with Redwan, a close associate of the TPLF, in the National Security Adviser position. However, Abiy's strategy faltered, and within eight months, Fano achieved significant victories, greatly bolstering the region's armed forces.

Abiy's hurried actions inadvertently brought to fruition the greatest fear of both himself and the TPLF: a well-armed Amhara faction. Consequently, he resorted to playing the Welkit and Raya cards, enticing the TPLF to align with him in weakening the advancing Amhara force against his rule. Abraham Belay played a pivotal role in convincing the wounded TPLF to participate in this endeavor, although his involvement was not entirely covert. Despite potential reluctance from the TPLF, Abiy's gestures, coupled with Abraham's influence, likely swayed them toward this decision.

However, it's likely that both parties will soon grasp the gravity of their error, particularly the TPLF, as engaging in another futile war would further deplete their already scarce resources, notably the youth who would suffer casualties in the thousands. In conclusion, when the misadventures of Abiy and the TPLF collide with the determined force of the Amharas, aimed at securing their survival, they will be astonished to confront a formidable adversary capable of decimating both factions.

[Misraq]

True. Abiy prepared a dangerous trap for TPLF. Mind you, TPLF without drones and human intelligence in Amhara will certainly receive a bloody nose. Abiy on the other hand survived due to his drones and the cash it pays out to militias, ENDF and paid informers.

TPLF clearly understood Abiy budges in because his army is crumbling. But the victory starved TPLF generals such as Megebey and die hard elements who haven't learnt a bit want to pull this hopping different results. We shall see.

[TesfaNews]

probably a lie.. nice propaganda tho

[Noble Amhara]

Gondar/Dansha and Dessie/Kombolcha are barely active in the war this means they have a deal with Abiy Ahmed