The world is the playground of the powerful. In these two centuries, regardless of the rise of other powers or the decline of the others, the United States still yields much power and uses its wherewithal to make a difference or change the course of history. Other powers tend to stay on the fence (Russia, China…) always expressing their desires but not proactively funneling their finances and other means to make impact.
Let’s face it, Americans favor you only if (1) they vanquish you (Iraq, Afghanistn, AlKyida) or if (2) you acceded to their whims even if you’re their enemy (Germany, Japan after beaten in WW2).
Palestine vs. Tigray
Palestine was a great nation and by Arab standards they were the most educated and affluent ones. Once Israel unjustly started to encroach on its land, Palestinians only responded in the outrage of the situation without having to listen to other alternatives (war and terrorism).
In case of Tigray, although they’re not particularly more educated or affluent that other Ethiopians, the perks of power and finances and the story they lived in through as the winners and the “golden” race, made them respond with outrage and incapacitated them to see into some negotiated middle ground. This made them resort to violence and war, which Americans are averse about.
TPLF as Government vs TPLF as Local Force of Tigray
The US policy is informed by the possibility that the TPLF may return to power and it would be a partner in the Horn. But once it’s out of favor by Ethiopians, they went to the extent of pronouncing TPLF as an irrelevant and spent force “will not be allowed to lay siege of Addis” when it sent suicide squares to Show hoping international intervention. This shows how US is siding on the stability and integrity of Ethiopia and that, in time, anyone in Arat Kilo would do the same for them what TPLF did/would do for them.
Palestinianization of Tigray
US believed that any force that resorts to violence or war in internal politics to overthrow a government as basically terrorist. Add to that such designation by the House of Representatives on TPLF. So believing that TPLF’s plan as taking lands from Amhara, Afar and Eritrea to stand in its feet, US will do anything to gradually squeeze the life out of TPLF, just like when Arafat’s Palestine resorted to violence and Palestine ended where it is now. Once you become on the other side of the US, it is not like being on the side of Russia/China - who are passive Allie’s. US actively works on its aim.
It’s a matter of time when we’d see TPLF and its assets frozen in UAE, China, US… and treated like terrorist groups. It may take long but once you crossed the US, it’s going to see to it that you’re buried, unless you end up like Japan or Germany making amends and pivoting from your posturing.
TPLF has went into a quagmire that led it to even harder positions with dwindling options on its hand. At start of war the issue was returning to status quo ante, while now westerners report Wolkaiyte as “controversial land”. Going forward you’d see reports or signals that the West is unabashedly with Abiy despite the suffering of people the West would have been outraged about had it happened somewhere else.
For Abiy there is no better enemy as TPLF as it strengthened him and his security machinery and showed the West that he’s not going anywhere. They see him as a survivalist they have no choice but need to work with.
Hence, seeing the destabilization of the Horn if TPLF is allowed to take lands from all around it, US is, slowly but surely, dispensing Palestinianization of Tigray - not allowing it to win but weakened and contained by Ethiopia.