I think the criteria for Abiy is clear: Tigray will get things that will allow the federal government to get more money from the west and at the same time will not threaten Abiy's power. Everything else is a RED LINE!
Tigray will get federal budget and basic services such as electricity, telecom and banking even this is not an easy task. For banking for example there must be a trust and all banks in Tigray must follow rules and regulations of the central bank of Ethiopia and not TPLF's orders. For telecom and electricity services, the institutions will have to send technicians on the ground and this too is not an easy task. I'm very sure even these basic services will be delivered in a very slow motion to prolong the so called የጥሞና ጊዜ as much as possible. The preparation for the negotiations and the negotiations themselves will be processed slowly, very slowly.
I don't think Tigray will get wolkait. That is impossible for now both militarily and through negotiations. The best Tigray can achieve is if the federal government administers wolkait like Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. Even that, I doubt this will become reality but that is the best outcome for Tigray.
Handing over wolkait for TPLF means a direct threat for Abiy's power. It means:
- Giving TPLF access to Sudan military supplies. Abiy will never allow this to happen. Even all aid trucks to Tigray must go through X-Ray machines to make sure that no weapon is delivered. This is how sensitive Abiy is when it comes to his power. Wolkait is so significant for the federal government so much so that last time it was willing to let TDF come all the way to north showa than allowing TDF control wolkait. Abiy will never allow TPLF to get access to Sudan. Only fools believe in such kind of fantasy.
- Giving wolkait to Tigray means Abiy officially breaking up with PP Amhara. Abiy is not that stupid to endanger his power just to please the west or TPLF.
Abiy composed 50% of the peace negotiators from PP Amhara to make sure that Wolkait will not even be on the agenda let alone to be handed over to Tigray. This will help him to play the good cop and let PP Amhara play the bad cop. He can say to westerners that he would love to negotiate about Wolkait but the negotiation team is composed of the "bad cops" and they rejected the issue to be on the agenda. This way he still maintains his stance never to give TPLF access to Sudan while playing the good cop. If he really wanted to hand over wolkait to TPLF he would have gathered "neutral" people into the negotiation team but he didn't because he himself don't want to give wolkait to TPLF but at the same time wants to play the good cop.
One thing I know for sure is Abiy will allow things that will not in anyway threaten his power such as basic services and even that he will do it in a slow motion to have the maximum possible effect of የጥሞና ጊዜ. Things like wolkiat that will directly threaten his power are RED lINEs that he will not cross!
I don't want to comment about silly things like TDF fighters being sent to UN missions
That is just delusional!