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Axumezana
Senior Member
Posts: 13233
Joined: 27 Jan 2020, 23:15

Abiy is in survival mode and with weak negotiation position!

Post by Axumezana » 28 Jun 2022, 00:20

SWOT analysis summary !

(1)Threats against PP!

- TDF war machine is more lethal than last year

- Campaign against OLA failed

- Campaign against FANO failed (increased resistance)

- Relationship with Eritrea - deteriorated
- External diplomacy some improvement but still weak
- Relationship with diaspora fragmented
- Fragmentation of his support base in Oromia and Amhara
- Sanction by USA and EU due to war in Tigray
- Problem with Sudan and Egypt due to GERD
- Russia- Ukraine war related problems on the global economy

(2) Opportunities

- Truce gave him breathing time to train more soldiers, buy more hardware and reorganize the army.
- Blockage/ Sanction of Tigray has further weakened economy of Tigray
- Diplomatic support from Africa, China, Russia, Arabs etc

( 3) Weaknesses

- A divided prosperity party and desatisfied members
- Dictatorship / one man show
- Hyper corrupted civil servant
- Poor civil service
- Aggravated and angry citizens
- Abiy's support has been significantly reduced and increased opposition against him
- Weak economy, shortage in cash, high inflation, high unemployment, significant depreciation of birr
- ineffective security and justice system ( intelligence, police, army , court etc) - country moving toward a failed state.

(4) Strength

- PP organizational and institutional strength inherited from EPRDF
- Control of media
- Control of country resources
- Drone & heavy equipment equipped and better organized army


As a summary PP is starting the negotiation with TPLF while fighting for it's survival due to the ongoing riots, civil war and resistance within Amhara and Oromia states and while facing pressure from Sudan, Egypt and Western countries with weak, fatigued and overstretched army. Whereas TPLF and the Tigray people are united and willing to pay any price to assure their survival.

TPLF could also coordinate it's attacks with OLA to leverage and apply more pressure on PP with a threat to come to Addis on the backdoor.

TPLF will use carrot and stick on PP during the negotiation until PP accepts the terms and conditions of TPLF including freeing West Tigray and the removal of Abiy from power.

OLF/ Oromo parties and TPLF are once again expected to save Ethiopia from disintegration!
Amharas will contuinue to be disorganized, marginalized and complain and play victim until a strong nationalist and independent Amhara party is established. Huge assignment for Zemene Kassie and his colleagues.


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