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temari
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It looks like TPLF has resumed its የእውር ድንብር ጉዞ

Post by temari » 09 May 2022, 18:16

After its useless and aimless adventure into Wollo and Afar costing hundreds of thousands of lives and retreating without achieving any military or political goals, it seems TPLF is now on another የእውር ድንብር ጉዞ heading to yet another ill-advised adventure that will only cost thousands of lives and extend the suffering of the people of Tigray and the region. It is mind boggling that the outdated and mentally expired TPLF leadership still thinks it can achieve its political goals through the means of war.

TPLF is in a deep crisis, a crisis of lack vision and ultimate goal and a crisis of leadership. It has no vision and doesn't know where it wants to take Tigray. It is a confused organization. Such organization with a deep seated crisis can not solve its problem with waging wars, instead it should consult the people of Tigray and step aside so that a new generation of Tigreans get a chance to decide on and determine their destiny.

May God have mercy to those that are innocent and are paying a heavy price.

Axumezana
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Re: It looks like TPLF has resumed its የእውር ድንብር ጉዞ

Post by Axumezana » 09 May 2022, 21:45

- When TDF decided to move south after freeing most of Tigray except part of West Tigray the main two objectives and TDF's achievements were:

(1) To weaken Abiy governments army so that it will not be able to come back to re-invde Tigray. TDF has destroyed the experienced army of Abiy and captured most of it's hardware and in this aspect TDF has accomplished it's goal 100%. If Abiy tries again to re-invade Tigray , he already knows the consequences , it shall be his hostile removal from Arat Killo with TDF and it's allies.

( 2) To weaken and to put pressure on Abiy government so that it comes to the negotiation table. However, if Abiy government is not willing to remove it from power in coordination with other forces such as OLA, Kimant and Agew forces. On this 2nd objective TDF has succeeded to shake the political , diplomatic and economy of the Abiy government and Ethiopia is now a failed state with lawlessness and no functional governance. TDF coming near to Addis brought the shock to Addis and most of diplomatic society and personnel of major organizations have been vacating. Therefore, TDF has accomplished 100% it's mission to pressure Abiy to come to negotiation table. Abiy has bowed and started negotiation with TPL. With regard to removing Abiy government TDF has accomplished 80% of the conditions but the remaining 20% call for huge sacrifice( facing drones and hundreds of thousands of Amhara militia and soldiers) and risk exposure( at the risk of disruption of it's supply line) for TDF. That is why TDF has to redeploy it's forces to use them where they are needed most to defend Tigray territorial integrity. TDF has made the strategic redeployment with it's lethal military capability on its palm and it is more than capable to defend the Tigray people and itself from any adventure from any directions. Hence, TDF strategic redeployment was correct and wise decision.
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Horus
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Re: It looks like TPLF has resumed its የእውር ድንብር ጉዞ

Post by Horus » 09 May 2022, 22:15

There is a well established maxim of human behavior. The maxim simply states that if a person (an entity) can't do what it wants to do, it will do what it can. This maxim doesn't specify if the purpose of the act is right or wrong, good or evil. Yes, TPLF was unable to march on Addis Abeba, but it was able to kill and loot civilian Amara population. That act had no purpose then and now it has a post facto justification; that is, stopping ENDF from invading Tigray. Flase!

Even if ENDF had a greatly superior force, military occupation of useless Tigray land mass would have been stupid. This strategic situation remains true. The question is why should ENDF occupy Tigray? What is the purpose of military occupation? Why should Abiy unwittingly own a sick society and cause its own down fall? Tigray must be left to itself to be its own problem until it gets rid of its own toxic and criminal leadership.

TPLF will try to project the appearance of military relevance which it doesn't possess. Tigray is a collapsed social structure, a people that can't even feed itself leave alone fight and win the combined forces of entire Ethiopia and Eritrea. In my view the same strategic map should applied in this 2022 version of winter drama. That is, encircle Tigray on all sides, decisively liquidate every battle attempt by TPLF human wave theatrics and wait until the end of time or TPLF is removed by Tigrays themselves which ever comes first.

temari
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Posts: 3743
Joined: 28 Dec 2014, 21:18

Re: It looks like TPLF has resumed its የእውር ድንብር ጉዞ

Post by temari » 10 May 2022, 02:54

Axumezana wrote:
09 May 2022, 21:45
- When TDF decided to move south after freeing most of Tigray except part of West Tigray the main two objectives and TDF's achievements were:

(1) To weaken Abiy governments army so that it will not be able to come back to re-invde Tigray. TDF has destroyed the experienced army of Abiy and captured most of it's hardware and in this aspect TDF has accomplished it's goal 100%. If Abiy tries again to re-invade Tigray , he already knows the consequences , it shall be his hostile removal from Arat Killo with TDF and it's allies.

( 2) To weaken and to put pressure on Abiy government so that it comes to the negotiation table. However, if Abiy government is not willing to remove it from power in coordination with other forces such as OLA, Kimant and Agew forces. On this 2nd objective TDF has succeeded to shake the political , diplomatic and economy of the Abiy government and Ethiopia is now a failed state with lawlessness and no functional governance. TDF coming near to Addis brought the shock to Addis and most of diplomatic society and personnel of major organizations have been vacating. Therefore, TDF has accomplished 100% it's mission to pressure Abiy to come to negotiation table. Abiy has bowed and started negotiation with TPL. With regard to removing Abiy government TDF has accomplished 80% of the conditions but the remaining 20% call for huge sacrifice( facing drones and hundreds of thousands of Amhara militia and soldiers) and risk exposure( at the risk of disruption of it's supply line) for TDF. That is why TDF has to redeploy it's forces to use them where they are needed most to defend Tigray territorial integrity. TDF has made the strategic redeployment with it's lethal military capability on its palm and it is more than capable to defend the Tigray people and itself from any adventure from any directions. Hence, TDF strategic redeployment was correct and wise decision.
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ENDF had less than 100 thousand soldiers when it left Tigray and I remember PM Abiy asking people to join the army in different occasions while ENDF was in Tigray but very few people joined. After TDF crossed into Wollo and Afar, people joined the army in mass and now Abiy has over 1 million soldiers under his command. Crossing to Amhara and Afar regions shocked Ethiopians and brought back the memory of repression under TPLF rule which Ethiopians were not willing to go through again. When ENDF left Tigray it had no drones of its own but thanks to TDF crossing to Wollo and Afar, ENDF is now operating its own drones. It took about a week for the new strengthened and better equipped ENDF to destroy hundreds of thousands TDF fighters and liberate Amhara and Afar regions.

This is one of the worst military achievements in my view. TPLF has strengthened Ethiopian military by 10 fold both in personnel and weaponry. That is a typical እውር ድንብር ጉዞ achieving the opposite of what you have intended to do.

Politically, it is now clear for everyone that Ethiopians will rather die than go back to TPLF rule again and the so called TDF which was seen as freedom fighters in Tigray has exposed itself as nothing but a collection of criminal bandits, rapists and looters. TPLF made itself an untouchable political actor in the Ethiopian political space that no amount of effort would enable it to get involved in Ethiopian political space for the coming decades and any leadership which wants to rehabilitate TPLF will face strong resistance not only from Amhara and Afar regions but also from ENDF itself. That is a political እውር ድንብር ጉዞ

This እውር ድንብር ጉዞ started when TPLF refused to play along with the new reality in town and instead started isolating itself from the federal politics. What stupid move! Then attacking the northern command was the dumbest and cruelest thing to do. Prior to the war, Tigray had Wolkait and Badme under its administration. It had federal budget, telecommunication, banking services, transportation including air service. It's industries were intact etc. Then the outdated and mentally expired leadership launched its እውር ድንብር ጉዞ to hell and still continuing. My guess is soon Tigray will lose more territory.


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