(A ) The root cause of the current instability in Ethiopia and in the Horn of Africa( mainly Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia) is the absence of a strong political force that plays the leadership & stabilizing role.
1- The main players vying for dominance are:
- EPLF- Eritrea based- dominated by Isaias
- TPLF - Tigray based - shared leadership
- PP - Ethio-Oromo- dominated by Abiy
- OLF/OFECO/- Oromo based- fragmented leadership
- FANO/NAMA/BALDERAS- Amhara based- fragmented leadership
- Al-Shabaab/Tayo/ - Somalia based- Fragmented leadership
2- The main external spoilers of the Horn of Africa are:
- Egypt- Water/Geopolitical/Economy/Security
- Arabs- Geopolitical/ religion/ economy/security/water(for Egypt)
- Turkey/Iran- Geopolitical/economy/security
- USA/Israel/ Europe- Geopolitical/economy/security
- China/ Russia/India- Geopolitical/economy/security
(B) At this time their is no clear dominant force that could bring leadership and stability and that calls for the creating alliance
1. Alliances already established
Group A- EPLF( Eritrea)-PP( Ethiopia) - Tayo(Somalia) - Fracturing and dependent of personalities (Isaias, Abiy, Formajo)
Group B - EPLF(Eritrea) - Fano( Amhara) - Under formation but tactical- with conflicting objectives
Group C - TPLF( Tigray) - OLF( Oromia) - with other Federalist forces- Deepening & under consolidation - strategic and complementary objectives
2. External spoilers alliances( multi-polar world)
- USA/Europe/Israel/Arabs/Egypt
- Turkey/Arabs/Iran
- China/Russia/India
(C) The Near future- Major War in the absence of Isaias controlled Abiy willingness to make peace with TPLF and OLF/OLA
Expected major war between the alliance groups that shall give birth to the leading force/forces:
Group A + Group B fighting with Group C
PP( Ethiopia) fighting with Fano( Amhara)
(D) The Wining Alliance Group
Group C with its consolidating, deepening alliance and complementary objectives shall win the war to lead the Horn of Africa for the 21st Century. Some of the existing forces shall die and some could survive as followers not leaders. Amhara and Eritrea shall be the losers in this competition. The external spoilers will always be willing to work with who ever is powerful. The need for win-win agreement between Ethiopia and Egypt.
(E) What will happen to TPLF
It shall be based in Tigray( Axum) and at the same time the 2nd in command at the center of Ethiopia ( Oromos shall lead the future)
However, power shall shift to Axum within the next 20 to 30 years and the rebirth of Tigray based Axumite Power that leads /shapes the Horn of Africa shall emerge.
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Axumezana
- Senior Member
- Posts: 13450
- Joined: 27 Jan 2020, 23:15
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Axumezana
- Senior Member
- Posts: 13450
- Joined: 27 Jan 2020, 23:15
Re: How to stabilize Ethiopia/Horn Africa & who is going to be the Wining and Leading Power?
Axumezana wrote: ↑30 Apr 2022, 20:49(A ) The root cause of the current instability in Ethiopia and in the Horn of Africa( mainly Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia) is the absence of a strong political force that plays the leadership & stabilizing role.
1- The main players vying for dominance are:
- EPLF- Eritrea based- dominated by Isaias
- TPLF - Tigray based - shared leadership
- PP - Ethio-Oromo- dominated by Abiy
- OLF/OFECO/- Oromo based- fragmented leadership
- FANO/NAMA/BALDERAS- Amhara based- fragmented leadership
- Al-Shabaab/Tayo/ - Somalia based- Fragmented leadership
2- The main external spoilers of the Horn of Africa are:
- Egypt- Water/Geopolitical/Economy/Security
- Arabs- Geopolitical/ religion/ economy/security/water(for Egypt)
- Turkey/Iran- Geopolitical/economy/security
- USA/Israel/ Europe- Geopolitical/economy/security
- China/ Russia/India- Geopolitical/economy/security
(B) At this time their is no clear dominant force that could bring leadership and stability and that calls for the creating alliance
1. Alliances already established
Group A- EPLF( Eritrea)-PP( Ethiopia) - Tayo(Somalia) - Fracturing and dependent of personalities (Isaias, Abiy, Formajo)
Group B - EPLF(Eritrea) - Fano( Amhara) - Under formation but tactical- with conflicting objectives
Group C - TPLF( Tigray) - OLF( Oromia) - with other Federalist forces- Deepening & under consolidation - strategic and complementary objectives
2. External spoilers alliances( multi-polar world)
- USA/Europe/Israel/Arabs/Egypt
- Turkey/Arabs/Iran
- China/Russia/India
(C) The Near future- Major War in the absence of Isaias controlled Abiy willingness to make peace with TPLF and OLF/OLA
Expected major war between the alliance groups that shall give birth to the leading force/forces:
Group A + Group B fighting with Group C
PP( Ethiopia) fighting with Fano( Amhara)
(D) The Wining Alliance Group
Group C with its consolidating, deepening alliance and complementary objectives shall win the war to lead the Horn of Africa for the 21st Century. Some of the existing forces shall die and some could survive as followers not leaders. Amhara and Eritrea shall be the losers in this competition. The external spoilers will always be willing to work with who ever is powerful. The need for win-win agreement between Ethiopia and Egypt.
(E) What will happen to TPLF
It shall be based in Tigray( Axum) and at the same time the 2nd in command at the center of Ethiopia ( Oromos shall lead the future)
However, power shall shift to Axum within the next 20 to 30 years and the rebirth of Tigray based Axumite Power that leads /shapes the Horn of Africa shall emerge.