- Background: Russian bases
It was the most sensational of all Russian statements in connection with last week's round of negotiations: Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov's loud musings that Russia might feel compelled to station missiles in Cuba and/or Venezuela.
It was probably an empty gesture of threat, because what would Russia gain in this case? One or two distant outposts which it would not only have to secure militarily but also to supply economically. Both governments, now political friends with Russia, would also become the objects of even more aggressive US attempts at regime change if they agreed to deploy Russian weapons systems.
Of course, the governments of Cuba and Venezuela are also aware of this. It is therefore unlikely that a Russian proposal to station weapons on their territories would be welcomed there. Both countries are already suffering from US sanctions, and they would be happy if the US left them alone, at least in this case. Adding fuel to the fire would not be the wisest thing from a Cuban or Venezuelan point of view. Incidentally, not for Russia either, because that would bring the very dilemma that seems to be keeping the USA from direct military engagement in Ukraine into its own house: Dying for Havana?
But the most important argument is that Russia no longer needs bases in the northern or southern Caribbean. 60 years of military technological development have also passed since the Cuban Missile Crisis. The same military effect - a threat to the US heartland with little warning - can be achieved by Russia today with missiles launched from submarines operating at safe depths somewhere in the Atlantic or Pacific. The damage caused by missiles launched from Cuba on US soil would be a trifle compared to the Poseidon-class nuclear torpedoes, which are said to be nearing production maturity - if the advance reports about their possibilities are correct.
So why Ryabkov's speculation? It is an indirect attempt to strengthen Russian arguments in Europe. For if such military cooperation with Cuba and Venezuela came about, Moscow could propaganda reverse the Western argument of "every sovereign state free to choose its alliances," even if it were a cheap triumph. Everyone knows anyway that the West throws its own principles in the bin when necessary. The next proof could be dearly bought. (rl)
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