"Despite my warnings—and the warnings of many leaders from Africa and around the world—Abiy pressed forward with a military campaign" Chris Coons
"I first spoke to Abiy about the brewing conflict in Tigray in November 2020. Tensions between his government and the TPLF, which dominated Ethiopia’s ruling coalition until 2018, had been mounting for months, culminating in a TPLF attack on Ethiopian military bases in the north of the country. In response, Abiy was preparing to launch a major military offensive against the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle. I urged him to reconsider and to take the path of negotiation and reconciliation instead. Abiy insisted to me that he was merely undertaking a law enforcement operation to apprehend a gang of criminals;
the mission, he said, would be completed in a matter of weeks. I cautioned that generals on both sides of the American Civil War had made similar predictions in the spring of 1861. Far from having a swift and decisive outcome, however, that conflict dragged on for more than four years, becoming the deadliest and most destructive war in U.S. history. Despite my warnings—and the warnings of many leaders from Africa and around the world—Abiy pressed forward with a military campaign that has since caused mass displacement and human rights abuses.
"The conflict has fueled anger and division both inside Ethiopia and across the Ethiopian diaspora, which are riven by dueling narratives about ethnicity, nationalism, and history. Making matters worse is a toxic digital environment awash in misinformation, propaganda, hate speech, genocidal rhetoric, and incitements to violence. This dangerous online discourse has had real-life consequences, in some cases resulting in atrocities. In August, for instance, rumors spread on Facebook that the Quemant people, an ethnic minority in the Amhara region, were supporting opposition forces. Soon after,
supporters of the Ethiopian federal government allegedly dragged more than a dozen Quemant people from their homes in the town of Aykel and butchered them in the street.
"Eight months after Abiy and I met in Addis Ababa, I am once again calling on him to choose the path of compromise and peacemaking that will prevent the conflict from tipping over into genocide. I am also calling on the TPLF and the other combatants to do the same. The battlefield dynamics have changed drastically since I was in Ethiopia, as the TPLF and its allies have apparently made significant gains against Abiy’s government.
For leaders in the midst of a military campaign, I know that compromise can seem like weakness, but leadership requires a willingness to compromise. Running roughshod over the opposition is never a recipe for success."
"As the insurgents move toward Addis Ababa, grinding conflict, massacres, and enduring ethnic divisions are not just possible but probable. They are not inevitable, however.
There is still an opportunity for both sides to show real leadership by ceasing hostilities and coming to the negotiating table in pursuit of a genuine national dialogue to chart a path forward.
Abiy’s government must lead the way by creating conditions under which both sides can negotiate. To that end, it should take immediate steps to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Tigray, including lifting the de facto blockade and allowing sufficient food and medical supplies into the region. It should also restore electricity, telecommunications, banking and commerce, and other basic services to the region that it cut off during the conflict. These steps will not only end violations of international humanitarian law but also eliminate the TPLF’s initial justification for expanding its offensive outside Tigray. Finally, Abiy’s government must cease arresting and detaining Tigrayans based solely on their ethnic identity and stop referring to the TPLF as a terrorist group to be annihilated. As long as Addis Ababa continues to say that it seeks the TPLF’s destruction, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which Tigrayan leaders pull back their forces. For its part, the TPLF must stop its relentless advance toward the capital, tone down its own aggressive rhetoric, and signal a willingness to negotiate. If Ethiopia’s warring parties continue to choose violence, accountability will be sure, forceful, and global—but by then, Ethiopia will be irreparably damaged"
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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... e-ethiopia
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