Mereja Forum

[TGAA]

The west that has had calamitous defeat in the hands of the Taliban is encouraging the dictators in the developing countries to wage a war on their behalf .
Dispatch
Sudan Will Decide the Outcome of the Ethiopian Civil War
As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed goes to war against Ethiopia’s former rulers—the Tigray People’s Liberation Front—Khartoum’s moves will determine whether the conflict remains a local affair or a regional conflagration.
By Nizar Manek, Mohamed Kheir Omer
November 14, 2020, 8:22 AM
Members of the Amhara militia
Members of the Amhara militia, who fight alongside federal and regional forces against the northern region of Tigray, ride through Gondar, Ethiopia, on Nov. 8. EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP via Getty Images

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia—While the world girded for the U.S. election in early November, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a war against the northern region of Tigray (lie). The region is home to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front—the party that dominated Ethiopian politics for decades and has since been displaced and sidelined as Abiy has sought to consolidate power and made peace with the TPLF’s archenemy, Eritrea.

But the TPLF has not gone quietly; in September, the regional government it leads held local elections that the central government refused to recognize in October. Then, on Nov. 3, following provocations by Abiy, it took control of personnel, military hardware, and equipment from the federal army’s Northern Command, prompting Addis Ababa to declare war against a region that remains home to a sizable portion of the Ethiopian federal army’s arsenal and forces, given its position along the long-contested and still undemarcated border with Eritrea. (another big lie)

Abiy has long accused the TPLF old guard of seeking to sabotage his government and his purported reforms. But now, facing all-out war against a formidable foe, the outcome will turn on the choices of Ethiopia’s neighbors—Sudan and Eritrea.
Members of the Tigray region special police force parade during celebrations marking the 45th anniversary of the launching of the Armed Struggle of the Peoples of Tigray in Mekele, Ethiopia, on Feb. 19.

Members of the Tigray region special police force parade during celebrations marking the 45th anniversary of the launching of the “Armed Struggle of the Peoples of Tigray” in Mekelle, Ethiopia, on Feb. 19. MICHAEL TEWELDE/AFP via Getty Images

Although Tigray is small, it is well armed, and its forces are battle-hardened. Tigray’s regional special forces, which a senior Ethiopian diplomat estimates have grown to at least 20,000 commandos—led by senior Tigrayan officers forced into retirement by Abiy, plus a standing body of reserve special forces made up of military-trained militia and armed farmers—together have an estimated total of up to 250,000 armed fighters. Until recently, however, it lacked the heavy weaponry required to directly confront a fully-equipped division.

Since last week, the TPLF has taken control of half the soldiers from the five divisions of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) Northern Command that remain in Tigray—meaning it has gained 15,000 soldiers, according to three sources: a senior Ethiopian diplomat briefed on the latest developments, a senior retired intelligence officer in Tigray who continues to work for the TPLF, and a source in Tigray monitoring the situation. But the seizure of Ethiopian military hardware and equipment has heightened the importance of logistical supplies for the TPLF, which will inevitably depend on Sudan’s stance.

Sudan has a number of strategic reasons to back—or at least to be perceived as supporting—the TPLF in the civil war against Ethiopia’s government. Oh Yea