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The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by info » 19 Nov 2021, 04:58

1. TDF enteres Addis Ababa
2. TDF fighers will be slaughtered like sheeps in the scale unseen before

Looking at from the government and TPLF perspectives it seem inevitable that one of the two above scenarios could be unfolding in the coming days. From TDF perspective, it tried very hard to control so called western Tigray i.e. wolkait and get access to Sudan for over 30 times and failed. It also tried very hard to capture Mille for more than 28 times and failed. Capturing wolkait could have given TPLF the much needed access to foreign support and supply via Sudan and capturing Mille would have given TPLF the means to force the federal government to the negotiation table which the federal government rejects until now.

This leaves TPLF with only one option i.e. going or at least trying to go to Addis Ababa since it has no other option left than to try hard in the coming days. TPLF knows very well it can't seat too long in Amhara and Afar regions due to the high cost TDF is paying daily to the point that TPLF has to issue to Amhara people not to kill TDF fighters. So for TDF/TPLF trying to reach Addis is the only option left and is very urgent. This is the first scenario that could be unfolding the coming days.

On the other hand we have the government that prevented TDF from capturing wolkait and as we recently also saw was able to prevent TDF reaching the strategic town of Mille. But for some reason the government and the federal army do not show any urgency and dedication in the central Wollo front. Highly mechanized unites and tanks are not deployed and the near million army and the Amahra liyu are not sent in mass. The only real battle happened around Dessie and that was because of the media attention and pressure the government received. It looks like the government is OK with TDF marching in the central front. Why is that the government does not show the same urgency and dedication in the central front as it displaying in the Afar and Wolkait front?

TPLF supporter and sympathizers of course see this as the strength of TDF and other opposition may see it as OPDO trying to harm the Amahra region. But strikingly all hard liner Amhara activists and parties like ABN/NAMA are silent and don't urge the government to do more. This is very unusual. It looks like they and the government know something what we don't know and if that is true then the scenario that could be unfolding in the central front could be described as nothing but a slaughtering of TDF forces. The over million ENDF and Liyu hail recruits are not sent to the front and nobody knows where they are. There is no huge battles in which tens of thousands are dead. So where are all the recruits? It looks like the government is letting all TDF fighters into the central front while preparing over a million military and liyu hail at the same time for the final slaughter of TDF fighters. This is the second scenario that could be unfolding in the coming days.

We can't tell which one of the above 2 scenarios will become reality exactly but it looks like that one of them will be unfolding very soon. May God have mercy for the innocent and civilians!

info
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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by info » 22 Nov 2021, 08:25

The second scenario implies that the government wants to destroy most of TDF fighters at any cost. This strategy makes only sense if the federal government still wants to enter Tigray otherwise the government would have simply tried to block TDF from entering Wollo just as it prevented TDF from controlling wolkait and Mille. So if the second scenario becomes reality then the immediate and may be parallel action of the federal government most likely will be trying to enter Tigray and control mekelle. The second scenario most likely will result in an offensive to capture mekelle.
It looks like in the next few days and weeks either TDF reaches Addis or federal forces will reach Mekelle. Addis or Mekelle that could be the question in the next few days and weeks.

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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by Blueshift » 22 Nov 2021, 09:46

Info,
There is a saying in Tigrigna.
ድሕሪ ሰለፋ እንታይ ተረፋ : The closest phrase in Amharic which is one of the richest landuage I know...ላም ኣለቺን በሰማይ ወተትዋን ኣላይThey are practically knocking on the door. To me, Abbiy's strategy is for Addis civilians to fight his war. :evil: This won't be pretty. How much TPLF dares, is waiting to be seen. Denial won't cut it. Abbiy's Generals are perhaps denying it too. Too bad, Asmnew's temper is not here to help :lol: :lol: :lol: They are practically useless. Hopefully though the people will take it on their own.

Digital Weyane
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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by Digital Weyane » 22 Nov 2021, 10:28

የሚሰማኝ ጁንታ አጣሁ ኡንጂ፣ ሞከላከያ ይከተለው ያለውን ዎታደራዊ ስልት ለጁንታ ዎገኖቼ አካፍያቸው ነበር። ሞከላከያ ኡየተከተለው ያለው አስደናቂ የዎታደራዊ ስልት — ጎርፍን እንደ ምሳሌ ወስደን፣ በከፍተኛ ጭካኔ የተሞላ ጎርፍ ከምንጩ በራቀ ቁጥር ፍጥነቱ ቀስ በቀስ እየቀነሰ መጥቶ ወደ ሌላ የውሃ አካል ሳይደርስ በመንገዱ መጨረሻ ላይ ይደርቃል። የሞከላከያ አባላት ስልቱን፣ <<ጁንታን መብላት በብልሃት>> ይሉታል። ዋይ ዋይ ዋይ ዋይ! :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by Misraq » 22 Nov 2021, 11:18

Info,

What you said can be plausible but I really doubt it. The fact that the government and other officials you mentioned look a little relaxed on this matter could be because they have some secret but we are fighting USA sponsored war and not sure if that is a good strategy at all. We will know in the coming two weeks.

Jimmy

info
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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by info » 22 Nov 2021, 18:04

Misraq wrote:
22 Nov 2021, 11:18
Info,

What you said can be plausible but I really doubt it. The fact that the government and other officials you mentioned look a little relaxed on this matter could be because they have some secret but we are fighting USA sponsored war and not sure if that is a good strategy at all. We will know in the coming two weeks.

Jimmy
Misraq & Blueshift, my assessment is based on the huge preparation going on at one of the fronts that I have first hand information. I don't have information about the other fronts but I know for sure at one front lines the preparation is fully completed, tens of thousands of federal forces, Amhara liyu and militias with logistics preparation enough for months. All completed! I don't think all this huge preparation was just for nothing.

Now, it's official. The huge offensive will start tomorrow and with that may be the second scenario of the slaughter of TDF fighters and also the march to Mekelle. Let's see who will reach the target cities (Addis or Mekele) first.

May God protect the innocent and the civilians and end this nightmare soon!

quindibu
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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by quindibu » 22 Nov 2021, 18:30

Just relax guys!

It's with a heavy heart that I'm saying this because I'm going to miss Edu- assuming that she would disappear from this site or she would continue with her normal daily 'duty'- crying out 'Tigray genocide' day in and day out sprinkled with her lowlander Eritrean opposition task now and then- after her woyane's total annihilation :lol: But let me repeat what I told her on this site just yesterday.


Tsadkan's ragtag militia's end will be sudden and swift. I would take comfort in knowing that it wouldn't be that painful for her or Tsadkan! :lol:

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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by Misraq » 22 Nov 2021, 18:46

Brother Info,

Well, the falacy on such stunt Abiy often pulls is something we got used to already failing us again and again. It started with TPLF ዱቄት ሆኗል followed by ደጀን ወደሚሆነን ሕዝብ መጥተናል all the way to አፍ የሚያሲዝ ነገር ታያላችሁ። and now this.

Abiy seems to me a man who believes on his own lies and false hopes. Announcing when and where you will attack is pure propoganda than reality because in reality such massive operations are surprises kkk

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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by eritrea » 22 Nov 2021, 19:00

There is no need for rush,

The war has been declared and in a couple of days or weeks the end result will be presented. But, giving the situation, woyane finds itself deep into enemy territory, without air support and without supply and with great danger of being sliced up into different direction makes their chances of success none existent.

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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by Hawzen » 22 Nov 2021, 20:11

info wrote:
19 Nov 2021, 04:58
1. TDF enteres Addis Ababa
2. TDF fighers will be slaughtered like sheeps in the scale unseen before

Looking at from the government and TPLF perspectives it seem inevitable that one of the two above scenarios could be unfolding in the coming days. From TDF perspective, it tried very hard to control so called western Tigray i.e. wolkait and get access to Sudan for over 30 times and failed. It also tried very hard to capture Mille for more than 28 times and failed. Capturing wolkait could have given TPLF the much needed access to foreign support and supply via Sudan and capturing Mille would have given TPLF the means to force the federal government to the negotiation table which the federal government rejects until now.

This leaves TPLF with only one option i.e. going or at least trying to go to Addis Ababa since it has no other option left than to try hard in the coming days. TPLF knows very well it can't seat too long in Amhara and Afar regions due to the high cost TDF is paying daily to the point that TPLF has to issue to Amhara people not to kill TDF fighters. So for TDF/TPLF trying to reach Addis is the only option left and is very urgent. This is the first scenario that could be unfolding the coming days.

On the other hand we have the government that prevented TDF from capturing wolkait and as we recently also saw was able to prevent TDF reaching the strategic town of Mille. But for some reason the government and the federal army do not show any urgency and dedication in the central Wollo front. Highly mechanized unites and tanks are not deployed and the near million army and the Amahra liyu are not sent in mass. The only real battle happened around Dessie and that was because of the media attention and pressure the government received. It looks like the government is OK with TDF marching in the central front. Why is that the government does not show the same urgency and dedication in the central front as it displaying in the Afar and Wolkait front?

TPLF supporter and sympathizers of course see this as the strength of TDF and other opposition may see it as OPDO trying to harm the Amahra region. But strikingly all hard liner Amhara activists and parties like ABN/NAMA are silent and don't urge the government to do more. This is very unusual. It looks like they and the government know something what we don't know and if that is true then the scenario that could be unfolding in the central front could be described as nothing but a slaughtering of TDF forces. The over million ENDF and Liyu hail recruits are not sent to the front and nobody knows where they are. There is no huge battles in which tens of thousands are dead. So where are all the recruits? It looks like the government is letting all TDF fighters into the central front while preparing over a million military and liyu hail at the same time for the final slaughter of TDF fighters. This is the second scenario that could be unfolding in the coming days.

We can't tell which one of the above 2 scenarios will become reality exactly but it looks like that one of them will be unfolding very soon. May God have mercy for the innocent and civilians!
Great analysis as always, brother info.

I think the selfie obsessed agames rag tag militias will be slaughtered like sheep in the scale unseen before.. It is just a matter of days or may be weeks before the doomsday pays a visit to agame-land. The reason I am expecting this is that for three reasons:

1. The selfie loving TPLF rag tag militias have been weakened and that they don't have enough militia to sustain all the attacks coming from all directions.

2. I think the people and government of Ethiopian have said enough is enough...If Ethiopians are as brave as the Afar warriors, TPLF will be annihilated anytime soon by Afar warriors, Amhara forces, ENDF forces and others.

3. Last but not least, Master Shabo has been watching from the North and relaxed. This tells me something is coming towards the agame land. I don't believe Eritreans will allow the evil agames to set their stinky feet in Addis let alone to take over Arat killo... However, this option is available only if the Ethiopian government makes an official Request from the brotherly people of Eritrea and the government of Eritrea....

Dedebit is always dedeb
R.I.P Abay Tigray and TPLF terrorist group


DefendTheTruth
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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by DefendTheTruth » 23 Nov 2021, 16:48

It seems that info has got internal info, indeed info.

info
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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by info » 26 Nov 2021, 16:37

Signs on the ground are indicating the first scenario of TDF marching to Addis is becoming increasingly unattainable. On the contrary it seems the second scenario is being unfolding before our eyes as government forces have launched an offensive in all fronts and are in the process of encircling TDF fighters. At the same time government forces are targeting and killing TPLF political and military leaders using drones to try and leave the TDF fighters without a central command. All of my contacts in the government are unanimous in saying that TDF fighters will not be allowed to leave the Amhara region. If the current trend continues, it will not be long may be few days or weeks before TDF fighters in Amhara region find themselves in a very unpleasant situation, forced to decide between getting slaughtered or surrender in masses. Some voices in the government also indicate their desire to go to Mekele. How this is realistic and wise, we will see later. But for now the second scenario seem more likely to become reality than the first.

May God protect and save the innocent and the civilians.

info
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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by info » 30 Nov 2021, 03:05

Even though it is not easy to get the whole picture from the front-lines, it is increasingly looking as if TDF is almost finished in the Amhara region and the war in Amhara region may soon end in the coming days. Three things support this assumption.

First the few information that are leaked from the war front all indicate that TDF is unable to sustain ENDF's massive offensive from all fronts. Honestly, for those who saw the massive preparation of ENDF this is not surprising. You need a big army with a continues supply chain and a functioning logistics to stand against such scale of offensive. TDF is in no way in the position to stand such a massive scale of offensive from all sides for too long.

Second, the confidence that is being displayed from the government side and many of the high officials indicate that they seem to be certain that TDF in Amhara region is almost done.

And finally TPLF's letter to the UN appealing for help also shows that the war is not going well for TDF on the ground. If one reads the letter carefully, it has two main components. It explains why TDF is being defeated, i.e. due to drones bought from Turkey, Iran etc. and the letter also indicates TPLF's full commitment to a peaceful negotiation. TPLF fully knows that the UN can't stop a country from buying weapons. The letter is not about that at all in reality but rather the letter is about explaining why it lost the war and that it is ready to negotiate peacefully. TPLF's confidence that was allover few days and weeks ago is completely gone. It's gone not only in the letter to the UN but also in the social media posts coming from TPLF officials like Getachew Reda.

All the above signs combined give us a glimpse of what is happening on the front-lines, i.e. TDF is being defeated on the ground and that the war in Amhara region could soon end in the coming days. Of course war is fluid and could change anytime soon with unexpected incidents but if things continue at the current state, at least for now it looks like TDF is unable to sustain the massive ground and air offensive of ENDF.

According to the PM, the second scenario is in its last stage.

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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by Blueshift » 30 Nov 2021, 03:45

Info,

You must of had some kind of information to make a rational prediction. To me, it looks like though neither event will happen very soon. TPLF was hoping that Abbiy was going to relent to some kind of negotiation. It didn't happen. TPLF is sacrificign young lives at a rate it may not afford in the long run. The Abbiy government is a sitting duck most of the time. Hence, my prediction is, neither event will happen very soon.

info
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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by info » 02 Dec 2021, 10:51

It's by now clear that the first scenario of TDF entering Addis Ababa is dead and we are in the middle of the second scenario. PM Abiy Ahmed today hinted that in the coming 2 to 3 days the Amhara region may be cleared from TDF fighters. He called this action as the first phase of the operation and spoke also of a second phase operation which is being prepared as we speak. The question remains, what second phase operation is he talking about after clearing TPLF from Afar and Amhara regions? Is ENDF preparing to enter Mekele? Some higher government officials also are hinting about capturing the remaining TPLF leaders indicating an operation inside Tigray.

We really don't know for sure whether the government is planing to march to Mekele but if so it would definitely bring much pressure from the US. One thing that is clear at this stage is that ENDF is more likely to enter Mekele than TDF to Addis.

May God protect the innocent and the civilians.


info
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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by info » 03 Dec 2021, 07:55

Very sad graphic images of dead TDF fighters are emerging which is too graphic to share. It is so sad to see human corps like flies lying allover the place. TPLF leadership sent these kids into a sure death trap in a delusional attempt to come back to 4 Killo. What a disturbing scene!

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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by Blueshift » 03 Dec 2021, 11:04

Info,

The US would not have any problem, if Abbiy makes it to Meqele. Weyane almost got to Addis. Worked with OLF which endangers the unity of the country. But, the US would have problems with Abbiy if the human situation deteriorates.

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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by Eripoblikan » 06 Dec 2021, 09:44

I hate to admit it but this "info" guy has turned out to be more reliable than all the cadres combined.
Blueshift wrote:
03 Dec 2021, 11:04
Info,

The US would not have any problem, if Abbiy makes it to Meqele. Weyane almost got to Addis. Worked with OLF which endangers the unity of the country. But, the US would have problems with Abbiy if the human situation deteriorates.

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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by Blueshift » 06 Dec 2021, 11:42

Eri,

I agree. The info guy has always been reliable. He has his political standing. He deals with it in a professional and ethical manner.

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Re: The two possible scenarios that could soon be unfolding in the coming days

Post by Eripoblikan » 06 Dec 2021, 11:50

Yeah, I think he likes Abiy but he tries to detach his emotions from his analysis. That's the opposite of what cadres do.
Blueshift wrote:
06 Dec 2021, 11:42
Eri,

I agree. The info guy has always been reliable. He has his political standing. He deals with it in a professional and ethical manner.

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