Shifting the Center of Gravity of Geopolitics and Economy of the Horn of Africa to Axum
Posted: 04 Nov 2021, 15:19
Elites of Tigray (prior to the war) proposed the following various strategies to keep or further enhance Tigray’s autonomy and build a prosperous Tigray
- An independent Tigray modelled after Israel (Tegadalai Mehari Yohannes, Mekelle University Lecturer)
- A de facto State (Dr. Mehari Taddele, A prominent Scholar)
- Confederation with Ethiopia (Professor Medhane Tadesse Lecturer)
- Democratized Strong Tigray as Part of Ethiopia (Tigray Prosperity Party members)
- Autonomous Tigray as part of Ethiopia/ If not possible Independent Tigray (Tegadalai Dr. General Teklebirhan)
In my view all the above options could be possible, but we need to identify the one that meets the aspirations of the Tigray people and is most feasible and strategically rewarding path without disintegrating Ethiopia. Generations of Tigrayans and all other Ethiopians have died and invested all their life for the territorial integrity and development of Ethiopia, and it is my strong conviction and advice to all key stakeholders including TPLF to work toward a new structure that maintains or expands the existing territory of Ethiopia.
The following are three possible paths Tigray may have to take for its future:
Option 1: Keep existing Federal Ethiopia as is with Tigray as one of the Federal states, but move the seat of the federal government to Mekelle immediately and to Axum within 5 years
This option does not meet the aspiration of those Tigrayans and Oromos that are determined to establish sovereign Tigray and Oromia states, but it is the low-risk path to sustain the territorial integrity of Ethiopia. More empowerment of the Federal states, improved democracy and, establishing a culture of zero tolerance and effective controlling system for corruption may help for this structure to be acceptable by the Ethiopian people.
Option 2: Establishment of a “Federated/Confederated Ethiopia” with Axum as a capital city.
- As a transition, keep existing Federal Ethiopia as is with Tigray one of the Federal states, but move the seat of the federal government to Mekelle immediately.
- Transform Ethiopia to hybrid Federated/Confederated structure within 5 years with its capital city in Axum as follows:
- By allowing the existing bigger federal states (e.g., Oromia, Amhara and Somalia) to be sovereign, after referendum as per the existing constitution, and willingly integrate them under one union (Confederated Ethiopia modeled after the European Union, to the extent it is relevant), establishing new Kimant and Agew federal states, and keep other existing federal states (Tigray as is, forming a hybrid of Federated/Confederated/ Ethiopia. Thinking only about the independence of Tigray and ignoring the rest of Ethiopia is same as throwing the baby with the bathwater and TPLF must lead and allocate the required resources for the formation of the new Ethiopia. The Confederated Ethiopia could progressively include willing countries in the Horn of Africa such as Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, and Djibouti.
- Thirty years ago, TPLF/EPRDF decided to govern Ethiopia from Addis Ababa, Menelik palace. That decision separated TPLF from its home base Tigray, marginalized Tigray from development and we all remember how that worked against TPLF during the Oromia riots. The physical separation of TPLF from its home base also made TPLF weak since it was not replenishing the energy it needed from the Tigray people. Based on the historical role Axum played as a corner stone of Ethiopia and knowing the fact that TPLF has to be always within the Tigray people to be effective in a sustainable manner, it is mandatory that the new Federated/Confederated Ethiopia that will be established under the leadership TPLF to have its head offices established in the historic city of Axum (This is similar to Brussels, the EU has no official Capital but Brussels hosts the official seats of various arms of the European Union). Addis Ababa must be a “Federal State” within the Federated/Confederated Ethiopia and continue as a political, diplomatic, and commercial center and metropolitan diversified city serving all the citizens of the Federated/Confederated Ethiopia in an equitable manner without any special claim by Oromos or Amharas. The capital city for the possible new sovereign Oromia (that may be established and confederated with Ethiopia) has to be located out of Addis Ababa.
o Tigray may not declare independence since it can indirectly assure its sovereignty from the Federal Ethiopia. However, Oromia, Amhara, Sidama and Somalia could be allowed to be independent states as per the constitution and willingly confederate with Ethiopia (de facto Tigray). Smaller regions such as Afar, Gambelia, Benishangul-Gumz, Welayta, other Southern people, Agew and Kimant could be part of the Federal States as part of the Hybrid Federal/Confederated Ethiopia anchored in Tigray.
o Tigray will ultimately become the political/democratic, cultural, economic and a technology center of the Horn of Africa within the next 20 to 30 years and the anchor and pillar of the Federated/Confederated Ethiopia. Tigray as the nucleus of the new Ethiopia will always directly or indirectly control the army and will have a MOSSAD like intelligence unit that safeguards Tigrayans and federal Ethiopia interests both in Tigray and elsewhere. The confederation could have a fully integrated & liberalized boundary, economy, monetary policy and common currency & passport and cross utilization and joint development of strategic infrastructure like electric power, multimodal transportation, education, etc. Since Oromos have dream of establishing a sovereign state, Tigray and Oromia could play the leading role in transforming Federal Ethiopia to Federated/Confederated Ethiopia.
Option 3: Independent Tigray with Axum as a capital city.
- If the above Options 1 and 2 are not possible, the fallback scenario is the establishment of an independent Tigray legally as per the existing constitution and get recognition by United Nations through the sponsorship of post–Isaias Eritrea or Ethiopia. Independent Tigray could establish of a confederation with Eritrea to build critical mass which could ultimately evolve to Confederated Ethiopia by integrating additional willing states in the Horn of Africa. This option will be more challenging to achieve as the international community and the United Nations may not support it as it affects the territorial integrity of the existing Ethiopia. A small land locked Tigray surrounded by genocidal neighbors may also not be secured and viable to realize its vision in a sustainable manner. All the investment and sacrifice in blood and sweat our ancestors invested in the present Ethiopia including the investment by TPLF and Tigrayans over the last three decades could also be wasted.
- An independent Tigray modelled after Israel (Tegadalai Mehari Yohannes, Mekelle University Lecturer)
- A de facto State (Dr. Mehari Taddele, A prominent Scholar)
- Confederation with Ethiopia (Professor Medhane Tadesse Lecturer)
- Democratized Strong Tigray as Part of Ethiopia (Tigray Prosperity Party members)
- Autonomous Tigray as part of Ethiopia/ If not possible Independent Tigray (Tegadalai Dr. General Teklebirhan)
In my view all the above options could be possible, but we need to identify the one that meets the aspirations of the Tigray people and is most feasible and strategically rewarding path without disintegrating Ethiopia. Generations of Tigrayans and all other Ethiopians have died and invested all their life for the territorial integrity and development of Ethiopia, and it is my strong conviction and advice to all key stakeholders including TPLF to work toward a new structure that maintains or expands the existing territory of Ethiopia.
The following are three possible paths Tigray may have to take for its future:
Option 1: Keep existing Federal Ethiopia as is with Tigray as one of the Federal states, but move the seat of the federal government to Mekelle immediately and to Axum within 5 years
This option does not meet the aspiration of those Tigrayans and Oromos that are determined to establish sovereign Tigray and Oromia states, but it is the low-risk path to sustain the territorial integrity of Ethiopia. More empowerment of the Federal states, improved democracy and, establishing a culture of zero tolerance and effective controlling system for corruption may help for this structure to be acceptable by the Ethiopian people.
Option 2: Establishment of a “Federated/Confederated Ethiopia” with Axum as a capital city.
- As a transition, keep existing Federal Ethiopia as is with Tigray one of the Federal states, but move the seat of the federal government to Mekelle immediately.
- Transform Ethiopia to hybrid Federated/Confederated structure within 5 years with its capital city in Axum as follows:
- By allowing the existing bigger federal states (e.g., Oromia, Amhara and Somalia) to be sovereign, after referendum as per the existing constitution, and willingly integrate them under one union (Confederated Ethiopia modeled after the European Union, to the extent it is relevant), establishing new Kimant and Agew federal states, and keep other existing federal states (Tigray as is, forming a hybrid of Federated/Confederated/ Ethiopia. Thinking only about the independence of Tigray and ignoring the rest of Ethiopia is same as throwing the baby with the bathwater and TPLF must lead and allocate the required resources for the formation of the new Ethiopia. The Confederated Ethiopia could progressively include willing countries in the Horn of Africa such as Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, and Djibouti.
- Thirty years ago, TPLF/EPRDF decided to govern Ethiopia from Addis Ababa, Menelik palace. That decision separated TPLF from its home base Tigray, marginalized Tigray from development and we all remember how that worked against TPLF during the Oromia riots. The physical separation of TPLF from its home base also made TPLF weak since it was not replenishing the energy it needed from the Tigray people. Based on the historical role Axum played as a corner stone of Ethiopia and knowing the fact that TPLF has to be always within the Tigray people to be effective in a sustainable manner, it is mandatory that the new Federated/Confederated Ethiopia that will be established under the leadership TPLF to have its head offices established in the historic city of Axum (This is similar to Brussels, the EU has no official Capital but Brussels hosts the official seats of various arms of the European Union). Addis Ababa must be a “Federal State” within the Federated/Confederated Ethiopia and continue as a political, diplomatic, and commercial center and metropolitan diversified city serving all the citizens of the Federated/Confederated Ethiopia in an equitable manner without any special claim by Oromos or Amharas. The capital city for the possible new sovereign Oromia (that may be established and confederated with Ethiopia) has to be located out of Addis Ababa.
o Tigray may not declare independence since it can indirectly assure its sovereignty from the Federal Ethiopia. However, Oromia, Amhara, Sidama and Somalia could be allowed to be independent states as per the constitution and willingly confederate with Ethiopia (de facto Tigray). Smaller regions such as Afar, Gambelia, Benishangul-Gumz, Welayta, other Southern people, Agew and Kimant could be part of the Federal States as part of the Hybrid Federal/Confederated Ethiopia anchored in Tigray.
o Tigray will ultimately become the political/democratic, cultural, economic and a technology center of the Horn of Africa within the next 20 to 30 years and the anchor and pillar of the Federated/Confederated Ethiopia. Tigray as the nucleus of the new Ethiopia will always directly or indirectly control the army and will have a MOSSAD like intelligence unit that safeguards Tigrayans and federal Ethiopia interests both in Tigray and elsewhere. The confederation could have a fully integrated & liberalized boundary, economy, monetary policy and common currency & passport and cross utilization and joint development of strategic infrastructure like electric power, multimodal transportation, education, etc. Since Oromos have dream of establishing a sovereign state, Tigray and Oromia could play the leading role in transforming Federal Ethiopia to Federated/Confederated Ethiopia.
Option 3: Independent Tigray with Axum as a capital city.
- If the above Options 1 and 2 are not possible, the fallback scenario is the establishment of an independent Tigray legally as per the existing constitution and get recognition by United Nations through the sponsorship of post–Isaias Eritrea or Ethiopia. Independent Tigray could establish of a confederation with Eritrea to build critical mass which could ultimately evolve to Confederated Ethiopia by integrating additional willing states in the Horn of Africa. This option will be more challenging to achieve as the international community and the United Nations may not support it as it affects the territorial integrity of the existing Ethiopia. A small land locked Tigray surrounded by genocidal neighbors may also not be secured and viable to realize its vision in a sustainable manner. All the investment and sacrifice in blood and sweat our ancestors invested in the present Ethiopia including the investment by TPLF and Tigrayans over the last three decades could also be wasted.