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Naga Tuma
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Joined: 24 Apr 2007, 00:27

Jeff Bezos' Suspected Broken Model

Post by Naga Tuma » 21 Oct 2021, 20:00

The term model has various meanings depending on where and how it is used.

Many people are probably more familiar with ladies that are known as models as depictions of the human physique.

Models have been used for cars. They have been used for new homes.

In applied science, laboratories use models in order to demonstrate theories as they are applied on a larger scale in practice.

A relatively newer use of the term model is by scientists, including Engineers, Mathematicians, and many other researchers.

In this case, I am referring to a model that is used by scientists.

A simple definition could be a tool or device that produces a predictable outcome given a known input. In this sense, a simple equation can be called a model.

I will use here a simple model of this nature that is now very much in common use by those who have access to GPS technology and use it for traveling from one location to another.

When using Google Maps to travel from Point A to Point B, the distance, D, between the two points as well as the allowed speed, S, of travel between the two points become known. A very simple model here is that distance is a function of speed. In mathematical lingo, D = f(S).

As a very simple example, if one were driving on a freeway that has a speed limit of 65 miles per hour, one can be predicted to arrive at Point B that is 65 miles from Point A in about one hour.

This example demonstrates a very simple logic that can be applied to any scientific model. The complexities may be on different levels but the concept is that once you have a functioning model, you can guarantee to produce a predictable outcome when you have a known input.

Amazon, which Jeff Bezos founded and led it as its CEO until he resigned after leading it for over two decades, must be using some kind of model to gauge its productivity at the robotic labor and human labor interface at its facilities. I will call the function that defines the productivity at this interface the productivity curve.

A close observation of the reported data at this interface suggests that the model that Jeff Bezos designed or oversaw as CEO of Amazon when it was designed may be a broken model. This is not the first model that I noticed as broken. I have previously identified and fixed a broken or at least poorly functioning model. That one stands as well-documented labor of love.

In this case, there are at least two other individuals who reviewed the productivity data independently, which is to say without me telling each my observation, and expressed that it didn't make sense to them.

One of them, who said he has a background in IT, reported a singular data point on what I am now calling the productivity curve.

Similar to the GPS function I wrote above, imagine that the productivity curve covers Y number of units when average performance is at a rate of X. In mathematical lingo, this means Y = f(X).

The singular data point that the IT staff provided is (8.2, 350.) This means there exists a model that produces about 350 units when the performance rate is at 8.2. If this data from its own IT staff is invalid, Amazon can say so also and provide the valid data point when the units covered are 350.

Now, assuming that such a model exists, here is a mathematical modeling challenge for Jeff Bezos to provide a function, any function whether it is linear, polynomial, exponential, logarithmic, involving imaginary numbers, or Bezos' epic function that the world's scientists haven't been made aware of as of yet, that fits the following data points: (..., 250,) (..., 300,) (8.2, 350,) (..., 400,) (..., 450,) (..., 500,) (..., 550,) and so on.

If Jeff Bezos can provide any model or function for the productivity curve that fits these data points reasonably well that can also reproduce observed data in the past, he has designed a working model. If he fails to do so, he must have been running a broken model.

It is hard to imagine that the man who has been presented as the face of rocket science to outer space has been running a broken model here on earth. It is even harder to imagine that this valedictorian would have this broken model on his neck forever.

If it is a broken model, the next question becomes if running a broken model was inadvertent or intentional. If inadvertent, it means at least three people who are willing to work hard to have ends meet can identify it independently of one another.

If intentional, I am sure it will open a pandora's box of modeling malpractice. One can't be running such a scheme and appear to be charitable, as he did a little while ago, which I wrote about then as a token out of a coffer.