Mereja Forum

[Axumezana]

The following are the drivers for the need to reconcile Abiy(PP) and TPLF:

- Both Abiy and TPLF have reached to the point that there is no winner of this war.

- The more the war continuous it's impact on Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia will be complex which ultimately could disintegrate Ethiopia , kill millions of people (from famine and war), create millions of immigrants to the Middle East , Europe and the rest of Africa ,destabilize the whole Horn of Africa etc. Unstable weak or disintegrated Ethiopia will create the perfect environment for breeding terrorists in the region. However, both TPLF and PP do not want such crises to unfold. The international community except Egypt and Isaias want a strong Ethiopia.

- The more the war prolongs Abiy as a leader of 120 m nation will face more risk of riots and crises that could threaten his stay in power.

- As Abiy increasingly feels the war must stop due to the pressure from the West and /being unable to score fatal blow on TPLF/TDF, his relationship with Isaias and Amhara hardliners will be strained, even, they could blackmail him and try to remove him from power.
- Abiy and PP has to stay in power as they have been elected by the people of Ethiopia.

- The TPLF may also be determined to remove Abiy from power and not interested to share power with PP.
TPLF may want " Federal Forces Coalition Transition Government" that it controls similar to EPRDF .However, that will not be accepted by the majority of Ethiopians and Tigray too.

- The Tigrayan people are demanding for a soverign state and does not want TPLF to take or share power in Addis Ababa
- However the TPLF may compromise to take or share power with PP but the Tigray people will not approve that.
- TPLF under the pressure of the Tigray people will be forced to demand for soverign Tigray state after a formal referendum by the Tigrayan people.
- The TPLF is not interested to share power with PP.
- The Western countries does not want Ethiopia to be disintegrated , weaken and also the war to prolong with all it's negative short term and strategic consequences.

The way forward:

The international community, with regional stakeholders and the African Union has to help TPLF and PP to formulate a "Coexistence Strategic Agreement" that considers the above issues and meets the following conditions:

- The Eritrean government has to be forced to stop interfering to the Ethiopian internal Affairs.
- A three year transition period for the session of Tigray from Ethiopia after referendum
- Abiy and his party stays in power in Ethiopia but TPLF governs Tigray as a a defacto soverign state with it's army and security independent while the economy is integrated with Ethiopia ( same currency banks etc)

- If Tigray chooses to be independent after three years, a confederation arrangement that gives Tigray soveriginity while it's economy is integrated with Ethiopia( liberalized border, same currency, joint infrastructural use etc). This will keep Ethiopia strong while Tigray exercise it's more autonomy. Definitely Oromia, Somalia and others states could demand such arrangement.

- Any agreement between TPLF and PP/ Ethiopian government should without prejudice to the legal issues related to the crimes committed during the war that have to be handled by UNSC/ICC.

[euroland]

No reconciliation nor negotiation with ruthless terrorist!!
The same terrorist who ran over the ENDF soldiers with Sino Truck; rape and killing thousands of innocent Ethiopias; looted the country billions of dollars, promises to its people that its goal is to burned down Ethiopia and make sure it disintegrated; colluded with Ethiopia’s enemies to destroyed it.

Juntaw

Now suddenly you changed your tone in the last day or two because you know the reports coming out of the war front and where the ENDF is now heading. ልቢ ትግራይ ጥዊይዋይ።

The following are the drivers for the need to reconcile Abiy(PP) and TPLF:

- Both Abiy and TPLF have reached to the point that there is no winner of this war.

- The more the war continuous it's impact on Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia will be complex which ultimately could disintegrate Ethiopia , kill millions of people (from famine and war), create millions of immigrants to the Middle East , Europe and the rest of Africa ,destabilize the whole Horn of Africa etc. Unstable weak or disintegrated Ethiopia will create the perfect environment for breeding terrorists in the region. However, both TPLF and PP do not want such crises to unfold. The international community except Egypt and Isaias want a strong Ethiopia.

- The more the war prolongs Abiy as a leader of 120 m nation will face more risk of riots and crises that could threaten his stay in power.

- As Abiy increasingly feels the war must stop due to the pressure from the West and /being unable to score fatal blow on TPLF/TDF, his relationship with Isaias and Amhara hardliners will be strained, even, they could blackmail him and try to remove him from power.
- Abiy and PP has to stay in power as they have been elected by the people of Ethiopia.

- The TPLF may also be determined to remove Abiy from power and not interested to share power with PP.
TPLF may want " Federal Forces Coalition Transition Government" that it controls similar to EPRDF .However, that will not be accepted by the majority of Ethiopians and Tigray too.

- The Tigrayan people are demanding for a soverign state and does not want TPLF to take or share power in Addis Ababa
- However the TPLF may compromise to take or share power with PP but the Tigray people will not approve that.
- TPLF under the pressure of the Tigray people will be forced to demand for soverign Tigray state after a formal referendum by the Tigrayan people.
- The TPLF is not interested to share power with PP.
- The Western countries does not want Ethiopia to be disintegrated , weaken and also the war to prolong with all it's negative short term and strategic consequences.

The way forward:

The international community, with regional stakeholders and the African Union has to help TPLF and PP to formulate a "Coexistence Strategic Agreement" that considers the above issues and meets the following conditions:

- The Eritrean government has to be forced to stop interfering to the Ethiopian internal Affairs.
- A three year transition period for the session of Tigray from Ethiopia after referendum
- Abiy and his party stays in power in Ethiopia but TPLF governs Tigray as a a defacto soverign state with it's army and security independent while the economy is integrated with Ethiopia ( same currency banks etc)

- If Tigray chooses to be independent after three years, a confederation arrangement that gives Tigray soveriginity while it's economy is integrated with Ethiopia( liberalized border, same currency, joint infrastructural use etc). This will keep Ethiopia strong while Tigray exercise it's more autonomy. Definitely Oromia, Somalia and others states could demand such arrangement.

- Any agreement between TPLF and PP/ Ethiopian government should without prejudice to the legal issues related to the crimes committed during the war that have to be handled by UNSC/ICC.

[Axumezana]

Ascari slave I know very well that you want Ethiopia to be weak and disintegrated but that is not going to happpen. It's your ascari land that will be with out government!

[Axumezana]

Isaias and Egypt are the only ones who are afraid of reconcilation between TPLF and Abiy( PP)!

[ethiopian]

no talk with terror group , the end is coming so why negotiate when EDNF is about to swallow TPLF ?

[Axumezana]

Ascari Isaias dog are you dreaming?