2 November 2020
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News of an imminent armed confrontation between the Tigray region and the federal government of Abiy Ahmed is making the rounds on social media since the Tigray regional government called on Tigrayans to prepare themselves.
A war with Tigray will be yet another tragic and colossally wasteful war from which the Ethiopian state could not emerge intact. It will not solve the central ideological and political problem between TPLF & Abiy's govt'. It will be endless and calamitous, with massive consequences for the rest of Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. And the idea that Abiy can impose his will on Tigray through war in 2020 is mind-numbing and could not be disassociated from the ambitions of the Eritrean Dictator Isaias Afeworki. Abiy and Isaias see the TPLF as a menace. Isaias wants a revenge. Abiy sees in them a threat to his “Ethiopia First” vision.
The first "Ethiopia First" leader, Mengistu Hailemariam, lost Eritrea. The second "Ethiopia-First" leader, Abiy Ahmed, is likely to lose Tigray and perhaps more regions. Abiy's shallow and sacrificial politics is costing civilian lives and leading country to the brink of explosion.
Ethiopians who support Abiy's vision of the future must take stoke of Ethiopia's past and ask themselves what, if any, vision he is offering for a political settlement that is acceptable to most actors. It is easy & convenient to blame the TPLF for all of Ethiopia’s problems, including the original sins, but the reality remains this: TPLF is perhaps the most politically organized & ideologically coherent force that no eventual political settlement in Ethiopia could work without their support. Abiy’s supporters have been spinning this confrontation as a war against TPLF but we all know that a war against TPLF will be a war against the people of Tigray in much the same way that TPLF’s war against the OLF was a war against the Oromo people.
The international community should not ignore this crisis until it morphs into a wholescale regional war, with considerable geo-strategic implication.
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