Mereja Forum

[Abe Abraham]

https://www.geopolitics.press/from-basm ... -ethiopia/

Viva Ethiopia !!!!

From Basma to Ethiopia – How C2FC is Using Lethal Journalism to Conduct Information Warfare and Lawfare against Ethiopia | Geopolitics Press


On November 10, 2020, a 7-page report that discussed the potential unraveling of Ethiopia – due to outbreak of war between the Federal Military and TPLF – was concluded and forwarded to a carefully selected team of EU officials, who would then present it to the EU council. The scenario considered in the report was a potential deluge of refugees into Europe from a disturbed region, the Horn of Africa (HoA). The report cautiously analyzed the then 7-day-long armed conflict between ENDF and an alliance of Tigray armed groups, including Tigray Regional Forces and Special Police, and expressed concern about the cohesion of ENDF and possibility of spill-over of the conflict into Oromia region.

The report also cautioned against the tripartite alliance of Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, and Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed of Somalia. Additionally, the report noted the concerns of Saudi Arabia, which feared the crisis could negatively impact the Gulf region – a concern shared by United Arabs Emirate. Another notable prospect raised by the report was cutting off of the Ethiopia-Djibouti terrestrial transport corridor should the conflict continue unabated (ibid). In May 2021, Goitom Gebreluel opinionated that the HoA is falling under an axis of tyranny led by the 3 aforementioned leaders, and that the tripartite alliance was destabilizing the region.



Members of the Tigray Special Police. They have been fighting ENDF since November 4, 2020, as part of a rebel alliance called the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). Kjetil Tronvoll stated that TPLF attacked the Northern Command of ENDF on November 3, 2020 – the act which initiated the current war.

Among the issues discussed in the West concerning the future of Ethiopia are if Ethiopia can be peacefully broken up if a rebel coalition takes power in Addis Ababa, and then allows the ethno-regional states to use referendum to vote for secession, which the central government will accept. This is to avoid the Somaliland-like limbo where the semi-autonomous state cannot gain full recognition as a republic unless the national government in Mogadishu consents to its secession. For USG and its European Allies, this will allow for a peaceful version of Yugoslavia-like breakup, while enabling the trial of Abiy Ahmed Ali for crimes against humanity in an international court just as it happened to the second last President of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic.

If Ethiopia accepts regime attenuation, then there will be need for a national dialogue supervised by a Government of National Unity that includes the TPLF (and even excludes Abiy Ahmed), which will oversee a constitutional review that will strengthen decentralization. So far, there has been no assessment of whether Abiy Ahmed can develop a strong personality or valor like Xi Jinping who defeated enhanced political warfare, or if Abiy can take bold decisive actions to survive political warfare. It also overlooks the fact that the Ethiopian people have not shown strong dislike for the government. Even so, popular perception can be changed using witful narrative management that is tailored to drive a wedge between the people and GoE.

Relatedly, how is the USG-EU alliance going to manage the crisis in Ethiopia, while promoting their agenda for Ethiopia?

…this will allow for a peaceful Yugoslavia-like breakup, while enabling the trial of Abiy Ahmed Ali for crimes against humanity in an international court just as it happened to the last President of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic


Geopolitics.Press