Ethiopian News, Current Affairs and Opinion Forum
Tiago
Member
Posts: 2022
Joined: 30 Jul 2018, 02:09

ceasefire never changes the position of the west

Post by Tiago » 31 Jul 2021, 18:36

The unilateral ceasefire has all but emboldened the TPLF


Belay S
July 31, 2021

The Federal government declared an immediate, unilateral cease-fire in its Tigray region after nearly eight months of deadly conflict on humanitarian grounds so that desperately needed aid can be delivered, to provide an opportunity for farmers to plant during the rainy season and to engage with other groups who seek peace. The TPLF undermined the declaration and resumed its attacks in the region’s rough terrain. It has already made several attempts at forcibly occupying the neighboring regions and people are mobilizing to repel the invasion.

Many people have several questions about the management of this war which has already cost thousands of lives. First, who is in charge of prosecuting the war? We sometimes hear conflicting statements made by government officials about the ceasefire, food deliveries to the region and other issues. This is a moment of grave danger to the country and the people expect their leader (commander-in-chief) to provide frequent briefings on the war and reassure them. Secondly, it is not clear why the army had to stop the war and declare a premature victory. Soon thereafter, it withdrew its forces from major cities and towns allowing the TPLF to establish a de facto state in Tigray. It reminds us of George Bush who declared “mission accomplished” aboard an aircraft carrier in 2003 and yet the war in Iraq was far from over and continued for several years thereafter. War is over only when a decisive military victory is achieved by killing or capturing all the civilian and military figures and degrading the enemy’s military capability to ensure that it will no longer pose a threat. This leaves the government with a monopoly over the use of force and enables it to impose order in the entire province. None of this happened in Tigray. Instead, it led to an inconclusive outcome that provided TPLF a golden opportunity to remobilize, regroup and rearm. This would not have been possible if Federal forces remained in the state.

Thirdly, the withdrawal of the interim administration and army from Tigray resulted in a leadership vacuum which allowed the TPLF to return to power. Even though the government declared it a terrorist organization, out premature exit crowned it in Tigray and will make it difficult for the government to normalize life by repairing the infrastructure, open schools and do other developmental activities for the people of Tigray. It cannot turn about-face and do business as usual with an outfit that is responsible for the deaths of thousands of people. Also, there is no Federal presence in Tigray to counter TPLF narratives that the Tigray people are in danger due to their ethnicity. Now, we can neither prevent the recruitment and mobilization of young children into their militia nor the persecution of TPLF opponents or the silent majority who do not want to get involved in the war. Today, there was news about Tigray mothers who held public demonstrations against the military recruitment of their children for the war. They were apprehended, flogged and taken to jail. No one is there to protect them.

Fourthly, the army is still in a ceasefire mode even when TPLF forces are mounting a fierce attack in Amhara and afar regions. It is in the barracks while ordinary people are mobilizing themselves to repel the attack. An important role of the army is to defend the nation and fulfill its military responsibilities in support of national security. Most people do not see the wisdom behind this strategy which could lead to more casualties and prolong the war. Moreover, as civilians mobilize to join the war, there will be less people to produce the essential goods and services needed for the economy, possibly triggering a nation-wide famine. If the decision to stop the war and withdraw from Tigray was intended to placate the West and donor community, it is not likely to work since they have already taken a position in this conflict. This is not the first time that Western countries have sided with insurgent or rebel groups that they can control or manage. In the Sri Lankan conflict, for example, the West and donor agencies highlighted government indifference to civilian casualties and used shrill moralizing to put the government on the defensive against the Tamil terrorist groups. Meanwhile, they never condemned rebel atrocities during the conflict. This emboldened the rebel groups, enabled them to capture more territory and unduly prolonged the war. Only when a new government which understood these machinations broke relations with many of these countries (allowed limited, controlled involvement with some NGOs) that the war was finally won. It ultimately broke the backs of the rebels who had terrorized the country for 26 years. The rebel army surrendered after all major figures were captured and killed in action (the guns fell silent in 2009). The Western countries want the country to continue the ceasefire while the TPLF takes over more towns and cities. This situation will create a military advantage for the TPLF and a good opportunity for their allies to demand negotiations and a possible power sharing arrangement. It is a grave surrender to terrorism and a defeat for the country. The government should stick to its original message of upholding the rule of law. This still remains a law enforcement operation.

Where do we go from here? The government should ditch the ceasefire and use the army to achieve a decisive military victory over the rebels and then stabilize the state. It may be necessary to declare a state of emergency till the situation stabilizes and democracy is restored. Any effort at allowing TPLF to run the province or the failure to apprehend or capture the remaining fugitives from justice (civilian and military leadership) will lead to a prolonged conflict, more casualties and deaths. Our failure to take a quick and strategic action in order to placate the West and its partisan donor agencies could make the country pay a heavy price and potentially lead to a collapsed state. In that case, we have no one to blame but ourselves. At this crucial time, we are facing history and ourselves.

Lakeshore
Member
Posts: 2627
Joined: 24 Jul 2018, 09:32

Re: ceasefire never changes the position of the west

Post by Lakeshore » 31 Jul 2021, 19:02

Thiago,

I really appreciate you for bringing this well written and detailed Belay's analysis of the current situation in Ethiopia. It is written with political correctness with out name calling and blaming the culprits unlike my approach but this is good so that the responsible government bodies might share it with out afraid of being accountable.
አውነቱ መነገር ኣለባት ለኣንድነት ነው ኣሁን ኣይደለም ጊዜው የሚለው ፍሊጥ አና ሌላው አንድይናገር ለማድረግ የሚሚከረው የኦርሙማ የካድሬ ስራ ሚዲያ ላይ ኣይሰራም። ችግሩን በመልየት ነው መፍትሄ የሚገኘው። የትግሬን ጁንታ መደምስ ስ በርሱ ብቻውን ኣላማ ውይም ግብ ሊሆን ኣይችልም። ከተደመስ ስ ብሁዋላ ምንድን ነው የሚሆነው ይሚለው ብግልጽ መታወቅ ኣለብት ልምን ብንል ጁንታውን በሁልት ሳምንት ውስጥ ደምስ ሰነው አንዳል ነበረ ሆኖ ብየጥሻው አና በየ ዋሻው አንዳይጥ ገብቶ ነበር። ደምስ ሳናቸው ነበር ነገርግን ጁንታው ከተደምስ ሰ ብሁዋላ ምን አንድሚደረግ ግልጽ ኣቋም ስላል ነበረ አንደገና በደንብ ኣስታጥቆ ስንቅና መሳርያ መጋዘን ኣስገብቶ ነዳጅም ጨመር ኣድርጎ የተኩስ ኣቁም በማለት ስንት ህይወት የጠፋበትን ስንት ንብረት የወደመበትን ትቶ የህይንታውንም ቀንደኛ መሪዎች ከጉድጓድ ተሸክሞ ኣውጥቶ አግራቸውን ኣሽቶ ከሆቴል ባልተናነሰ የቀርችዋን አድሜኣቸውን በሰላም አየምሩ ነው። መንግስት ጦረነቱ ካለቀ ህዝቡ ወደ መብት ጥያቄ አንድሚሽጋገር አንዲሁም በህዝብ ላይ ከፍተኛ ዘርፊያ አና በደል የፈትጸሙ ምንግስት ወስጥ ያሉ ኣካልትን የመርመር አና ፍጥ የማስፈር አንዲሁም ኣምራው በደሙ ይስመለሰውን መሬት ህጋዊ መብቱን ማረጋገጥን ስለሚጥይቅ ያደግሞ አደገና ይህገ ምንግስት ማሻሻያ ወንም ኣዺስ ህገ መንግስት መቅረጽን ስለሚጠይቅ በምንግስት ወስጥ ያሉ ዮኦርሙማ ማለትም ዮኦርሞን ይበላይ አንት ብሃይል ማስፈን የሚፍልጉት ጥቅማቸውን ይጻረራል።

ኣሁን ኣብይ ምርጫውን ኣሸነፍ የሚባለው አና ህዝቡም ከጁንታው አሱ ይሻልል ብሎ ስለሆነ የሚደግፈው የጁንታው መጥፋት የሱን ማንነት አና የወድፊት ኣላማ ጥያቄ ላይ ስለሚጥለው ይሚክፈለውን መስዋትነት አተከፈል ጊዜውን ማራዘም ነው ይሚፍልገው። ኣዎ ነግሩ ትንሽ ረጋ ባለ መንገድ ማየት ያስፈልጋል።

ለምደነው ያሸንፍነው ጦረነት አንደገና መቶ ቢልዮን በር ኣውጥተን ያፈርሱትን አይጠገንን የሚበሉትን አይሰፈረን በጀት መደበን አንዲሁም በፓርላማ አዲሞግቱን አና ህዝባችንን አንዲያዋረዱ ኣድረገን አደግና ግዛታቸውን ትተን የበለጠ ኣጠናክረን አዳታና መሳሪይ በቦሌ በርዳታ ስም አንዲገባላቸው አያደርግን አምነቀጥለው የሚለውን ስናይ ኣንዳንዶቻችን መከላከያውን ስንኮንን ዋናው መልሱ ግን አውነት ጦረንቱ አንድያልቅ ይፈለጋል ውይ ይሚለን ዘለነዋል።

ያምራ ወልቅይት ኣስመላሽ ኮሚቴ ጁንታውን ሲጠይቅ የነበረውን ጥያቀ ኣሁንም ኣማራው በሃይሉ አንጂ የሚያስተዳደረው የኣብይ ኦርሞ ፓርላማ አስካሁን የጁንታውን ኣላማ በመቀጠል ህጋዊ አውቅና ኣልሰጠም። ለምን ብለን ስንጥይቅ ይምናገኘው ኣሁን ያለው ኦሮሚያ የምባለው ክልል ልክ አንደ ትግሬ ጁንታ ብሃይል የወሰዳቸው ብዙ መረቶች ኣሉ። ልምሳሌ ጉራጌ ጋሞ ወላይታ ጌድዮ ኣጣዬ ከጋምቤላም አና ሌሎችም ስለዚህ አንዚህም ልክ አንድ ጁንታው ጊዜ መልስ የሚፍልጉ ጉዳዮች ስለሆኖ ላማራው ያንን በምፍቀድ ህጋዊ ክፍተት መፍጠረና ሎሎችም ተምሳሳይ ጥያቄ አንዳያነሱ የተደረገ ነው።

የጦረነቱ ቶ ሎ ያለማለቅ ምናልባት ወደፊት አንዚህ በሃይል በኦርሞ መሬታቸውን የተነጥቁ ኦሮሞን ለመቃወም ቢፍልጉ አና ጦረነቱ ቀላል አንዳልሆነም ልማሳየትም ጭመር ይመስለኛል። አና ኣብይ በምርጫ ዘመቻውም ኣገሪቱን በምን ኣይነት ምንገድ አንድትመራ አንድሚያድርግ ያለው ነገር የልም ያንን ኣጋጣሚ ኣድበስበሶ ነው ተደብቆ ያለፈው አንጂ አንዲያውም በጣም ጥሩ ኣጋጣሚ ነበር። አኔ ኣሸነፍኩ ቢልም ለሎቹ ባሉት ነው አንጂ የሱን ሃሳብ የሚያውቅ የለም ይሄ ብራሱ በጣም ኣድገኛ አና ዝም ብላጩ ደግፉኝ ኣለነለዚያ ጁንታው የምጣባችዋል አያለ ጁንታውን ጦረንት ብማራዘም ግዜና ፋታ አንዲሁም ትቀናቃኝ ይሆኖቱን በጥረነቱ ሰበብ ያምስወገድ ስራ ነው።

eritrea
Member
Posts: 2750
Joined: 25 May 2007, 13:45

Re: ceasefire never changes the position of the west

Post by eritrea » 31 Jul 2021, 19:59

I completely agree with the author in this regard. The target of punitive measure threats are a test of seriousness in the leadership of the targeted country by the west. The demands continues until the targeted country is turned into another Libya, Iraq and Syria. Then and only then is their game over.

Noble Amhara
Senior Member
Posts: 11627
Joined: 02 Feb 2020, 13:00
Location: Abysinnia Highlands

Re: ceasefire never changes the position of the west

Post by Noble Amhara » 31 Jul 2021, 20:12

Absolutely this is perfectly UPDATED!

I really hate those who blindfully cheer Abiys immature government, weyanes were acting as if he was learning from Isaias which he isn’t. Isaias is a very mature politician doesn’t play with his nation’s sovereignty to a few thousand juntas.

Noble Amhara
Senior Member
Posts: 11627
Joined: 02 Feb 2020, 13:00
Location: Abysinnia Highlands

Re: ceasefire never changes the position of the west

Post by Noble Amhara » 31 Jul 2021, 20:23

2nd

Abiy has strongly resisted giving up ENDF weapons to Amharas. What’s the point of having a National defence force if they can not defend the country they have responsibility too. Abiy has given Satan a 2nd resurrection

Post Reply