TPLF acting more like a headless chicken without any military or political goal
Posted: 21 Jul 2021, 17:05
What is the purpose of attacking Afar? Is TPLF trying to come back to Addis? 
Give me a break. That will not happen in a million years. We know at least 99% of Ethiopians hate TPLF to death. It's not like Derg era where people were sick and tired of Derg and its atrocities. This time Ethiopians are behind the government and are sick and tired of TPLF.
Or is TPLF trying to control the Ethio-Djibouti road/railway? That's also impossible as the rail/road is way to the south of Afar and near to Somali region and is unreachable.
One can think Wolkait is the only target that has real military value but it looks like TPLF is not able to snatch the price. So it is compensating its failure to control wolkait by spreading daily noise on social media and by acting like a headless chicken with no military or political goals.
And what was the reason for attacking UN aid convoys that are bringing the much needed food for the hungry in Tigray? It looks like a desperate attempt to make the international community pressure the Ethio government handover Wolkait to TPLF. But that is not happening. Rather, with this kind of wild behaviour and the many child soldiers, TPLF is starting to look more like a terrorist organization even for the western media.
When it comes to internal Ethiopian politics, TPLF leaders seem to have learned absolutely nothing from their past mistakes of the last 30 years. They don't even change their outworn annoying language. It is astonishing how they are allergic to learning are and are even more hated now by majority of Ethiopians than before.
My guess is that the army will start its offensive when the rainy season ends in September as it is very difficult for mechanized brigades and heavy military to be mobile during the rainy season. We have seen this kind of behaviour during the Ethio-Eritrea war as both sides avoided the rainy season. I think when the rainy season ends in September then the Tsimona time will also end and the offensive starts. For now it is more of a militia lightweight war with light weapons just to stop TPLF from advancing. We see no serious attempt from the army to push back or engage in a serious battle. That is my guess.
Give me a break. That will not happen in a million years. We know at least 99% of Ethiopians hate TPLF to death. It's not like Derg era where people were sick and tired of Derg and its atrocities. This time Ethiopians are behind the government and are sick and tired of TPLF.Or is TPLF trying to control the Ethio-Djibouti road/railway? That's also impossible as the rail/road is way to the south of Afar and near to Somali region and is unreachable.
One can think Wolkait is the only target that has real military value but it looks like TPLF is not able to snatch the price. So it is compensating its failure to control wolkait by spreading daily noise on social media and by acting like a headless chicken with no military or political goals.
And what was the reason for attacking UN aid convoys that are bringing the much needed food for the hungry in Tigray? It looks like a desperate attempt to make the international community pressure the Ethio government handover Wolkait to TPLF. But that is not happening. Rather, with this kind of wild behaviour and the many child soldiers, TPLF is starting to look more like a terrorist organization even for the western media.
When it comes to internal Ethiopian politics, TPLF leaders seem to have learned absolutely nothing from their past mistakes of the last 30 years. They don't even change their outworn annoying language. It is astonishing how they are allergic to learning are and are even more hated now by majority of Ethiopians than before.
My guess is that the army will start its offensive when the rainy season ends in September as it is very difficult for mechanized brigades and heavy military to be mobile during the rainy season. We have seen this kind of behaviour during the Ethio-Eritrea war as both sides avoided the rainy season. I think when the rainy season ends in September then the Tsimona time will also end and the offensive starts. For now it is more of a militia lightweight war with light weapons just to stop TPLF from advancing. We see no serious attempt from the army to push back or engage in a serious battle. That is my guess.
