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Blueshift
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Joined: 30 Mar 2021, 19:34

TPLF could be operating a hit and run units but not a guerilla army

Post by Blueshift » 07 May 2021, 01:45

It is too early for TPLF to claim to have killed in the tens or hundreds. That is fake. It does not have the time to stop and count. But, it could be throwing granades at passing army trucks or something. To operate as a guerilla army, it takes a certain number of years. That is the reason, it is not showing captured or killed enemy soldiers. :lol: :lol: However, given a year or too, it may be able to develop that. But, time is not on its side. The people of Tigray are vulnerable. Starvation is on the horizon. This thing is very serious.

Eripoblikan
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Posts: 1798
Joined: 15 Sep 2019, 13:49

Re: TPLF could be operating a hit and run units but not a guerilla army

Post by Eripoblikan » 07 May 2021, 04:03

It may be hard to grasp if one has hard cadre skull but what you wrote is the harsh reality of war and that's exactly what is happening.

It may even take decades for the momentum of war to shift in favour of the Tigrayan resistance.
Blueshift wrote:
07 May 2021, 01:45
It is too early for TPLF to claim to have killed in the tens or hundreds. That is fake. It does not have the time to stop and count. But, it could be throwing granades at passing army trucks or something. To operate as a guerilla army, it takes a certain number of years. That is the reason, it is not showing captured or killed enemy soldiers. :lol: :lol: However, given a year or too, it may be able to develop that. But, time is not on its side. The people of Tigray are vulnerable. Starvation is on the horizon. This thing is very serious.

Axumezana
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Joined: 27 Jan 2020, 23:15

Re: TPLF could be operating a hit and run units but not a guerilla army

Post by Axumezana » 07 May 2021, 04:58

TPLF is fighting and winning that is why Isaias and Abiy could not succeed after six months and still recruiting and training new soldiers!

Blueshift
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Joined: 30 Mar 2021, 19:34

Re: TPLF could be operating a hit and run units but not a guerilla army

Post by Blueshift » 07 May 2021, 07:59

Axumzana,

In guerilla warfare, the government fights unseen enemy. That is called hit and run. What TPLF is doing is hit and run. In the long run that will prove very costly to the government. That is why Abbiy is trying to recruit as many as possible and blitzkrieg like he has done the first two weeks of the war. TPLF is flooded with volunteers, but does it have the logistics to handle these new fighters. The new fighters need food, medical supplies etc... If it gets too tense for Abbiy, he will just leave Tigray on its own. He will not stick around. Isayas has to leave now if not real soon. TPLF's biggest risk is protracted war. It does not have time on its side. Otherwise, 1984, voila.

kerenite
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Joined: 16 Nov 2013, 13:15

Re: TPLF could be operating a hit and run units but not a guerilla army

Post by kerenite » 07 May 2021, 13:17

Blueshift wrote:
07 May 2021, 01:45
It is too early for TPLF to claim to have killed in the tens or hundreds. That is fake. It does not have the time to stop and count. But, it could be throwing granades at passing army trucks or something. To operate as a guerilla army, it takes a certain number of years. That is the reason, it is not showing captured or killed enemy soldiers. :lol: :lol: However, given a year or too, it may be able to develop that. But, time is not on its side. The people of Tigray are vulnerable. Starvation is on the horizon. This thing is very serious.
Blueshift,

I tend to concur partly with your take regarding the term 'guerilla' and if it applies to the so-called TDF aka weyanne 2nd or 3rd or whatever.

I am of the opinion that their rebel is in its preliminary stage. Of course they lack dejen at the moment and as such they are scattered left and right.

And to add, they are divided, and worse yet their people in country side cannot afford to feed them while they themselves are on the verge of starvation.

Here Egypt and Sudan comes to mind. I bet my life that both countries will be interested to disrupt the abi regime by assisting the tigriyan rebels perhaps they may have already started providing them ammo and canned food (I cannot prove it but I believe so).

Finally....

You know what? The grave mistake of tigriyans was that they were obstinate. Had they withdrawn from Badme years back, they would have remained in power and even if they have lost power in addis, the amharas wouldn't have dared to attack them while eritrea would have stood by them and would have warned the amharas not to trespass the tigray border.

But as foolish as they are... 20 years long they were mocking eris by foolishly uttering... If you have guts... Come and get badme.

Perhaps now, they are regretting but it is too late.

lil kogne
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Posts: 659
Joined: 20 Jul 2019, 17:11

Re: TPLF could be operating a hit and run units but not a guerilla army

Post by lil kogne » 07 May 2021, 14:38

TPLF is not capable to operate as a Guerilla army . To carry a Guerilla warfare you need to fulfill some requirements such as enemy weakness, good terrain strategic areas where you could train your new recruits and retreat to. great mass support as well as neighboring state co-operation. Good media outlet and financial backing. 1, The Ethiopian army is stronger comparing to where the Derg was in terms of armaments and army fitness. the Ethiopian Defense force is not scattered as was when fighting in Eritrea. 2. All the seasoned TPLF fighters are gone, some of them are dead, gone to a foreign countries or retired for good and are old. 3. There is no out let to an adjacent country that is committed to help the junta whole heartedly. the Sudanese border is mostly under Ethiopian and or Eritrean control if you will. 4. The Tigray population is divided in supporting the Junta. 5. weapons that were under TPLF is mostly destroyed or captured and on this day Drones play big task in defeating enemies i.e. Azerbaijan vs Armenia war and Ethiopia is armed with drones. Only thing the junta can do is operate as a thief ( shifta). case close. the only hope and I pray to god that would not happen is if and when the Ethiopian nation does not fall into chaos and turmoil d/t civil unrest and that would give a chance the hyenas like TPLF to exploit the situation to their advantage and become stronger Terrorist group. one last thing I forget, TPLF just got designated a terrorist group and that would be hard to get international recognition. it done deal junta gone forever !!!!

lil kogne
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Posts: 659
Joined: 20 Jul 2019, 17:11

Re: TPLF could be operating a hit and run units but not a guerilla army

Post by lil kogne » 07 May 2021, 14:53

TPLF is not capable to operate as a Guerilla army . To carry a Guerilla warfare you need to fulfill some requirements such as enemy weakness, good terrain strategic areas where you could train your new recruits and retreat to. great mass support as well as neighboring state co-operation. Good media outlet and financial backing. 1, The Ethiopian army is stronger comparing to where the Derg was in terms of armaments and army fitness. the Ethiopian Defense force is not scattered as was when fighting in Eritrea. 2. All the seasoned TPLF fighters are gone, some of them are dead, gone to a foreign countries or retired for good and are old. 3. There is no out let to an adjacent country that is committed to help the junta whole heartedly. the Sudanese border is mostly under Ethiopian and or Eritrean control if you will. 4. The Tigray population is divided in supporting the Junta. 5. weapons that were under TPLF is mostly destroyed or captured and on this day Drones play big task in defeating enemies i.e. Azerbaijan vs Armenia war and Ethiopia is armed with drones. Only thing the junta can do is operate as a thief ( shifta). case close. the only hope and I pray to god that would not happen is if and when the Ethiopian nation does not fall into chaos and turmoil d/t civil unrest and that would give a chance the hyenas like TPLF to exploit the situation to their advantage and become stronger Terrorist group. one last thing I forget, TPLF just got designated a terrorist group and that would be hard to get international recognition. it done deal junta gone forever !!!!

Blueshift
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Posts: 300
Joined: 30 Mar 2021, 19:34

Re: TPLF could be operating a hit and run units but not a guerilla army

Post by Blueshift » 07 May 2021, 16:51

Kerenite,
Well put.
Kerenite wrote,
Blueshift,

I tend to concur partly with your take regarding the term 'guerilla' and if it applies to the so-called TDF aka weyanne 2nd or 3rd or whatever.

I am of the opinion that their rebel is in its preliminary stage. Of course they lack dejen at the moment and as such they are scattered left and right.

And to add, they are divided, and worse yet their people in country side cannot afford to feed them while they themselves are on the verge of starvation.

Here Egypt and Sudan comes to mind. I bet my life that both countries will be interested to disrupt the abi regime by assisting the tigriyan rebels perhaps they may have already started providing them ammo and canned food (I cannot prove it but I believe so).

Finally....

You know what? The grave mistake of tigriyans was that they were obstinate. Had they withdrawn from Badme years back, they would have remained in power and even if they have lost power in addis, the amharas wouldn't have dared to attack them while eritrea would have stood by them and would have warned the amharas not to trespass the tigray border.

But as foolish as they are... 20 years long they were mocking eris by foolishly uttering... If you have guts... Come and get badme.

Perhaps now, they are regretting but it is too late.

Sadacha Macca
Senior Member
Posts: 10856
Joined: 22 Feb 2014, 16:46

Re: TPLF could be operating a hit and run units but not a guerilla army

Post by Sadacha Macca » 07 May 2021, 21:33

they are pretty much at the starting stage of a guerrilla army... they will eventually build a stronger movement if they can maintain the support based on the anger of the tigrayans, but it may end up causing the tigrayans more harm than good, if one looks at the pro's and con's of maintaining a guerrilla movement... however, it's their choice to make... and I understand that, they do not want a puppet govt imposed on them...

Cigar
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Joined: 19 Apr 2010, 00:03

Re: TPLF could be operating a hit and run units but not a guerilla army

Post by Cigar » 07 May 2021, 21:38

There is no Eritrea to run to after your supposedly hit, for your coward woyans which was hiding 17 years in Eritrea's fox holes.
You will be eaten alive by the Amhara militia if you go to dedebit.
These ungrateful agames really believe, first they defeated dergue secondly being inside from tigray.
Man shut the hell up. You are done. You are dead. You can't freaking hit a [deleted].

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