Mereja Forum

[Messele Zewdie Ejeta]

Many people who heard about the news of the recent extreme weather event in the State of Texas and cold weather in much of the U.S. are probably reminded about how catastrophic such events can become. Drought and flood events have long been thought of as entirely natural phenomena.

The curiosity about nature has given birth to modern science, which led to the development of climate science, among others. Understanding climate science has, in turn, led to the reckoning of the climate crisis.

Whether the recent extreme weather event in Texas was due entirely to natural variability or exacerbated by manmade greenhouse gas emissions remains to be seen. Attribution studies to natural variability and manmade greenhouse gas emissions are new frontiers of research.

In the course of such an attribution study, I have uncovered the predictability of meteorological variability. A peer-reviewed journal paper, which can be accessed here, was published a few years ago in the Hydrological Processes journal.

Interestingly, I had also taken a preliminary study about the predictability of the drought event in Texas in 2011. A proceeding paper from this preliminary study, which can be accessed here, was published several years ago by the American Society of Civil Engineers. Proceeding papers are not peer-reviewed but scientific works that are accepted by conference organizers.

This scientific effort is yet to get wider traction among the academic community, Many new ideas in science can take years before they enter the mainstream of science. However, those scientists who are interested in this new frontier of research and happen to have the resources to invest in it may, in the long run, be able to develop a wealth of knowledge out of their efforts.