Ethiopian News, Current Affairs and Opinion Forum
EPRDF
Member
Posts: 2162
Joined: 26 Jan 2010, 12:58

Ogaden region is part of Ethiopia now because of Somalis good will

Post by EPRDF » 16 Feb 2021, 18:56

Long-time aspiration of secession of the Somali region of Ogaden could have been implemented now with no resistance because of a weak central government of Ethiopia in Arat Kilo.

Somalis have vast land, population and resource plus their kin next to them with sea access to the outside world would enable them to create economically a viable, an independent state easily. They could have realized this their long-time dream at this moment without setbacks but it seems they chose to stay in Ethiopia. Thanks for Mustafe.

However, the future relation of Somali region to Addis Ababa is depending on how ODP and ADP are behaving. If they invite more conflict due to a centralist attitude, this region is the first to say goodbye, and no power will stop them as the current political reality indicates on the ground.

The important question is where is the border of Somali region? That includes the entire Hararghe and part of Bale regions as far as I know. So the second largest ethnic group in the region, Eastern Oromos, to whom are they going to pay allegiance? Adama or Jijiga?

Sadacha Macca
Senior Member
Posts: 12302
Joined: 22 Feb 2014, 16:46

Re: Ogaden region is part of Ethiopia now because of Somalis good will

Post by Sadacha Macca » 17 Feb 2021, 19:57

Greetings obbo eprdf,

Keep these things in mind:

1. The international community, the more powerful ones in particular along with the U.N., would have to recognize the addition of such a large land mass to Somalia from Ethiopia a sovereign country.
They are unlikely to rule in favor of a Muslim country against what is perceived to be a Christian majority or secular nation. Unless... Ethiopia really messes up, perse and decides to do something to anger the "superpowers of the world."

2. There is no strong armed force in the somali region that could muster the strength to wage an eplf like war to secede from Ethiopia. Like in Somalia, even more so, there's many clans in the Somali kilil who may NOT want to be dominated by the ogaden anyways so they'd may want to take their piece of land and secede even further... Like the sitti zone may want to join Djibouti where their clan rules...



Etc etc....

Somaliman
Member
Posts: 4803
Joined: 09 Nov 2007, 20:12
Location: Heaven

Re: Ogaden region is part of Ethiopia now because of Somalis good will

Post by Somaliman » 17 Feb 2021, 21:00

I think we've to stop capitalising on our little differences for our maniacal desired interests and instead learn how to live with one another and transcend this secession mentality, which is not taking us anywhere.


Just a thought!

EPRDF
Member
Posts: 2162
Joined: 26 Jan 2010, 12:58

Re: Ogaden region is part of Ethiopia now because of Somalis good will

Post by EPRDF » 17 Feb 2021, 21:06

Sadacha Macca wrote:
17 Feb 2021, 19:57
Greetings obbo eprdf,

Keep these things in mind:

1. The international community, the more powerful ones in particular along with the U.N., would have to recognize the addition of such a large land mass to Somalia from Ethiopia a sovereign country.
They are unlikely to rule in favor of a Muslim country against what is perceived to be a Christian majority or secular nation. Unless... Ethiopia really messes up, perse and decides to do something to anger the "superpowers of the world."

Obbo macca,

We were saying the same thing when Eritrea fighting the war of secession. In politics, the weight on the military power scale would dictate the politics of the center. Ethiopia is an empire accumulated by Menilik Sanja hundred thirty years ago and never the state bothered to democratize the politics of this diverse nation ever since & even today; thus, so-called Ethiopian national coherence always depends on the military strength of the central government.

Remember, when Dergue collapsed at the center, Eritrea went with the wind just like that.

The Ethiopian government has never been as weak as it is now in the country's long history. We do not have to lie to ourselves in this.

Sudan walked in and controlled lands claimed by Ethiopia as its sovereign territory and the government is watching helplessly not because it loved to see this or kept silent for any other reasons, but it is because the government is so weak in military strength to confront Sudan and its allies.

Domestic politics is not promising from what we see now and we do not know what might be coming tomorrow.

Any violation of Somali autonomy by unionists like we see in parts of Ethiopian regions will result in the departure of Somali region, all it needs a little push.

EPRDF
Member
Posts: 2162
Joined: 26 Jan 2010, 12:58

Re: Ogaden region is part of Ethiopia now because of Somalis good will

Post by EPRDF » 17 Feb 2021, 21:06

duplicated
Last edited by EPRDF on 17 Feb 2021, 23:20, edited 1 time in total.

AbyssiniaLady
Member+
Posts: 5496
Joined: 04 Feb 2007, 05:44

Re: Ogaden region is part of Ethiopia now because of Somalis good will

Post by AbyssiniaLady » 17 Feb 2021, 21:37

Somali region will be an independent country sooner rather than later, It has no future in Ethiopia, For the good of both countries Somali state must separate from Ethiopia, There is no need for us to be fussing over Somalis.


EPRDF

The land is called Somali region not Ogaden region.

Sadacha Macca

You obviously don't know anything about Somali region and Somali people, So please stick to what you know, which are your region and South Sudanese people, Somali are more united than ever before, Moreover, there is no clan land in Somali region, but nice try though.
They are unlikely to rule in favor of a Muslim country
Somali state is rich in oil and gas resources and that is what the international community want.

AbyssiniaLady
Member+
Posts: 5496
Joined: 04 Feb 2007, 05:44

Re: Ogaden region is part of Ethiopia now because of Somalis good will

Post by AbyssiniaLady » 17 Feb 2021, 22:48

EPRDF wrote
Any violation of Somali autonomy by unionists like we see in parts of Ethiopian regions will result in the departure of Somali region, all it needs a little push.
This is absolutely true but it's a hard pill for the powerless cute and clever ethnic group to swallow.

EPRDF
Member
Posts: 2162
Joined: 26 Jan 2010, 12:58

Re: Ogaden region is part of Ethiopia now because of Somalis good will

Post by EPRDF » 17 Feb 2021, 23:39

AbyssiniaLady wrote:
17 Feb 2021, 21:37
Somali region will be an independent country sooner rather than later, It has no future in Ethiopia, For the good of both countries Somali state must separate from Ethiopia, There is no need for us to be fussing over Somalis.
AbyssiniaLady,

The outskirt of Harar to the east, the town of Babile just 15KM outside the city, is part of Oromia as of now, beyond is Somali.

To the west is Awaday, Haremaya and Dengego is inhabited by Oromos and then DireDawa Oromo and Somali but to the east all the way to Djibouti is occupied by Isa clan of Somali, to the west mainly Oromo with a significant number of Somalis.
In Bale, I don't know much but there huge portion of Somali population.( Obbo Yaballo may give us a hand on this one)

So my question is where is the Somali region border? What would be the demarcated territorial line the Somalis claim in case separation ticket comes to the table.

Sadacha Macca
Senior Member
Posts: 12302
Joined: 22 Feb 2014, 16:46

Re: Ogaden region is part of Ethiopia now because of Somalis good will

Post by Sadacha Macca » 18 Feb 2021, 00:06

Obbo eprdf,

You cannot compare Eritrea, which, despite being more diverse than the Somali region, was able to unite and form what is perhaps the greatest guerrilla army in modern times, to the Somali situation. One was an entity with defined borders since colonial times(Eritrea) that completely routed the Ethiopian army from its land...and one was part of the country/empire since the time of menelik as you said. The Super powers of the world back then recognized Ethiopia's borders back then, minus Eritrea which menelik admitted didn't belong to Ethiopia. It's unlikely that they'd sit and watch their Christian ally in the Horn disintegrate in favor of strengthening Muslims. I am just trying to be objective here. I'm Muslim myself and can see what it is.
They're two entirely different situations.
I agree with the rest, yes the govt of abiy is weak and not strong at all, but there is no strong armed opposition right now that could topple it, nor are there secessionist movements in the Somali region that would be strong enough to take advantage of this situation. Either way, through article 39 or war, the odds of any region trying to secede are very unlikely/low. Let's be real and not let hatred of abiys strategic blunders make us not see these obvious truths and facts.
In regards to the Sudan issue, it's obvious some entity has emboldened Sudan to do what it's never done before despite the land dispute being there for decades. We shall see what comes of it.
Bale is mostly oromo. I have family there. The Somalis mostly inhabit the lowlands but overall oromo are the majority there. If Somalis couldn't win by force, to acquire those lands when they had a strong standing army, it's even less likely they can do so now.


Just Google this "The Somali in the lowlands of Bale and Sidamo could not fight the Ethiopians without the support of the Oromo in the.."
And you'll see.


Angry Abyssinian lady,
Yeah sure. There are no clan claimed lands in Somalia either. I'm sure there is no clan problems or land claims in Somalia, Somali region of Ethiopia or any Somali inhabited lands. In fact I'm sure clans aren't important at all in Somalia or any Somali inhabited lands.
In your imaginary world, there is no sitti zone mostly inhabited by mostly Issa Somalis who may not agree with being ruled by Ogadenis as opposed to just taking their land and joining their clansmen in Djibouti. There's no states mostly based on one or two clans in Somalia either, right? So there's no Puntland, Jubbaland, etc.
Sure if you say so.

Post Reply