Mereja Forum

[gearhead]

Sure you are not the lawyer that is handling the Somalia side? you are thorough!

I cant believe Kenya botched it up so bad! What were they thinking? Even the MoU references International Standards for process delimitation. They must have assumed a parallel line to the Tanzania boundary would be grandfathered in!

Somalia will win its case but I am not sure how Kenya would take the defeat. How do you think they will react?

[Somaliman]

"Kenya's apparent hostility to this court was rather made clear yesterday; it's perhaps a reflection of Kenya's growing recognition to its claim of maritime boundary based on a line of parallel is without merit, a claim that will most likely fail before this court." Professor Philippe Sanders.

[Somaliman]

Another cheap excuse of Kenya is that the current president of the ICJ is a Somali, even though they perfectly know that such an organisation has well-founded and internationally recognized and accepted provisions in this regard.

[Somaliman]

Sure you are not the lawyer that is handling the Somalia side? you are thorough!

I cant believe Kenya botched it up so bad! What were they thinking? Even the MoU references International Standards for process delimitation. They must have assumed a parallel line to the Tanzania boundary would be grandfathered in!

Somalia will win its case but I am not sure how Kenya would take the defeat. How do you think they will react?

Kenya may also be counting on the Article 65 of the ICJ Statute, which provides the ICJ with the provisions of giving an advisory opinion; the purpose of which is to offer legal advice to the organs and institutions requesting the opinion; thus, advising that the case be discussed and agreed between the two countries. But this option was exhausted as evidenced also at the court.

If the ICJ adjudicates in favour of Somalia, Kenya would most likely deploy its army in the "disputed" area - and that might help unify Somalis, as Somalis get unified as soon as an outsider interferes in one of their common denominators.

[gearhead]

Sure you are not the lawyer that is handling the Somalia side? you are thorough!

I cant believe Kenya botched it up so bad! What were they thinking? Even the MoU references International Standards for process delimitation. They must have assumed a parallel line to the Tanzania boundary would be grandfathered in!

Somalia will win its case but I am not sure how Kenya would take the defeat. How do you think they will react?

Kenya may also be counting on the Article 65 of the ICJ Statute, which provides the ICJ with the provisions of giving an advisory opinion; the purpose of which is to offer legal advice to the organs and institutions requesting the opinion; thus, advising that the case be discussed and agreed between the two countries. But this option was exhausted as evidenced also at the court.

If the ICJ adjudicates in favour of Somalia, Kenya would most likely deploy its army in the "disputed" area - and that might help unify Somalis, as Somalis get unified as soon as an outsider interferes in one of their common denominators.

somailiman,
I went through all the videos. There is nothing that will save kenya from a negative outcome. I talked to a few kenyan friends and they seem to understand the direction and dont portray a reaction to the inevitable. That given, I dont believe Kenyata will move in a military fashion against UNs binding verdict and risk loosing support from inside and out.he might act indignant for a few months but will negotiate from a weaker position over sunk-in investment.

[Somaliman]

Sure you are not the lawyer that is handling the Somalia side? you are thorough!

I cant believe Kenya botched it up so bad! What were they thinking? Even the MoU references International Standards for process delimitation. They must have assumed a parallel line to the Tanzania boundary would be grandfathered in!

Somalia will win its case but I am not sure how Kenya would take the defeat. How do you think they will react?

Kenya may also be counting on the Article 65 of the ICJ Statute, which provides the ICJ with the provisions of giving an advisory opinion; the purpose of which is to offer legal advice to the organs and institutions requesting the opinion; thus, advising that the case be discussed and agreed between the two countries. But this option was exhausted as evidenced also at the court.

If the ICJ adjudicates in favour of Somalia, Kenya would most likely deploy its army in the "disputed" area - and that might help unify Somalis, as Somalis get unified as soon as an outsider interferes in one of their common denominators.

somailiman,
I went through all the videos. There is nothing that will save kenya from a negative outcome. I talked to a few kenyan friends and they seem to understand the direction and dont portray a reaction to the inevitable. That given, I dont believe Kenyata will move in a military fashion against UNs binding verdict and risk loosing support from inside and out.he might act indignant for a few months but will negotiate from a weaker position over sunk-in investment.

Gearhead,

Instead of engaging with Somalia in good faith, Kenya ramped up its punitive measures and attempted counterproductive arm-twisting tactics against Somalia, such as banning direct flights from Mogadishu, hassling Somali politicians at Nairobi airport for hours, meeting the so-called president of Somaliland suggesting that it’s an independent country, etc., to force Somalia to withdraw from litigation, while Somalia continued to adopt a measured tone commended by many Kenyans.

It’s true, disapproving of the ICJ’s judgement can attract international pressure to ensure full compliance with the decision, as this was the case when Nigeria disapproved of the ICJ’s judgement in the land and maritime boundary dispute between itself and Cameroon. But guess what! Nigeria and Cameroon signed an agreement 12 years later following the court’s judgement.

Although I believe the court will most likely favour Somalia at least partly, time will tell, in the end.