Source : Sudanese website
Egyptian fears of a Sudanese-Ethiopian agreement on the “Renaissance” dam without Cairo.
The Ethiopian “Renaissance” dam, one of the largest water dams in the world, which was built on the Nile River in the upstream country of Ethiopia, constitutes an important source for development in Ethiopia, while it causes concern and raises many concerns for Egypt and Sudan, but Ethiopian-Sudanese bilateral talks may lead to a bilateral agreement between The two parties, without Egypt being invited to it or even being mentioned in it, Egypt looks at it with suspicion.
Egyptian fears
The visit of the President of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, to Ethiopia and his meeting with the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed, last Saturday, and his announcement of the possibility of reaching an agreement on the technical issues of the “Renaissance Dam,” Egyptian fears that the two sides would agree on the water file without Egypt.
The meeting between Al-Burhan and Abi Ahmed took place during the tenth “Tana” forum on peace and security in Africa, in the Ethiopian city of Bahardar, in a meeting in which Al-Burhan said, on the issue of the “Renaissance Dam”, that “it is possible to reach an agreement on the technical issues of the dam.”
Al-Burhan welcomed a proposal made by Abi Ahmed on the establishment of economic integration between the two countries, declaring that “the outstanding issues between them can be resolved through dialogue,” stressing “Sudan’s keenness to maintain close relations with neighboring Ethiopia.”
As for the Ethiopian Prime Minister, he tried hard to court Khartoum and convince its leaders of the benefit of the Ethiopian dam, and said that the relationship with Sudan is “special,” noting that “the Renaissance Dam project will bring great benefits to Sudan, and will not be an opponent to it.”
In the bilateral meeting, the two sides did not issue any call to Egypt to restore the negotiations, which were halted a year ago, amid Cairo and Khartoum’s insistence on first reaching a tripartite agreement on filling and operating the dam; To ensure the continued flow of their annual share of the Nile water, however, Ethiopia rejects this, and claims that there is no harm to the downstream countries from its project.
Observers indicated that it is in Sudan’s interest to agree with its Ethiopian neighbor, especially amid border problems and military confrontations that erupt from time to time between the two parties, a file in which Al-Burhan and Abi Ahmed stressed, “the need to address all border problems by peaceful means.”
Agreement without Egypt and what is the danger of Sudan?
According to observers, Abi Ahmed may succeed in persuading Al-Burhan to conclude a special agreement between them on the sharing of the Nile water and on the filling, operation and management of the “Renaissance” dam away from Egypt. Sudan has already borrowed $400 million recently from the World Bank to build an electricity transmission line from the dam. Al-Nahda to Khartoum, which means that Sudan has agreed from a legal point of view to the “Al-Nahda” dam in its current form in terms of structure and operation.
Observers point out that the position of the current president of Sudan, he can never open a new front with Ethiopia, and it is better for him to reduce conflicts to the minimum possible, pointing out that it may be that Sudan's settlement of the dam issue will be matched by Ethiopia's settlement of the Fasha file.
As for Egypt’s loss of any Sudanese-Ethiopian consensus, experts believe that until Ethiopia starts building the three dams on top of the “Renaissance” dam, Sudan will not suffer at all from any water effects and its share of the Blue Nile waters will reach it by deducting Egypt’s share.
The states east of the Blue Nile are considered to have Ethiopian tendencies due to the presence of tribes with a historical relationship to Ethiopia, especially the Tigray province; Accordingly, those states will have the upper hand in deducting the water they want to irrigate the newly reclaimed lands for the benefit of the Gulf countries, so that they irrigate 3 seasons annually instead of the current seasonal irrigation system, and as a result, Egypt is the biggest loser because all these water discounts are basically discounts from the Egyptian quota.
Egyptian skepticism of an agreement
Egyptian observers believe that it is not necessary to talk about the existence of different Egyptian-Sudanese views on the Nile water file and coordination around it, stressing that on the contrary, there is consensus between Cairo and Khartoum. Deputy Chairman of the Sudanese Military Council, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, with the same order, until Sudanese officials’ visits to Addis Ababa became periodic, and for several reasons, including coordination over the border dispute, and confronting the “Tigray” tribe.
Also about the possibilities of a Sudanese-Ethiopian agreement on the sharing of Nile waters and on filling, operating and managing the Renaissance Dam away from Egypt, Sudanese researchers believe that there is no chance of reaching a just bilateral agreement between Ethiopia and Sudan apart from Egypt, noting that this belief comes in light of the negotiation experience. The precedent between the three parties over the past years, in addition to the divergence of views on many legal and technical points related to the dam.
As for the losses of Egypt and Sudan due to the incompatibility between them and their dealing alone with Ethiopia, the researchers emphasized that the mismatch of the positions of the two downstream countries is always in the interest of Ethiopia, indicating that Addis Ababa has its interests in imposing its perceptions regarding the use of water not only in the file of the “Renaissance Dam” ”, but also in its broader future plans in water exploitation projects, and thus signing a separate agreement may be a step in this direction.
For their part, Egyptian experts pointed out that the problem is not in Sudan’s unilateral agreement with Ethiopia or a dispute between Egypt and Sudan, but that “the problem is that Egypt does not object to building the “Renaissance” dam, but rather objects to filling it all at once, thus depriving Egypt from its share of the Nile water in accordance with the agreements concluded between the ten countries associated with the Nile Basin.
Experts pointed out that Ethiopia wants to fill the reservoir all at once with the aim of giving Israel the water it needs, through a canal or through pipes, in a project that was presented to President Anwar El-Sadat during the Camp David agreement talks between Egypt and Israel, and the agreement aims to build a canal to connect The waters of the Nile were given to Israel in the name of “Peace Canal,” but Sadat backed down from it, but Israel is behind Ethiopia to guarantee the waters of the Nile, and Abi Ahmed was awarded the “Nobel Peace Prize” for this.
Egypt seeks to guarantee the rights of all parties
The Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, said that Egypt “is making its utmost efforts to settle the issue of the Renaissance Dam in a manner that achieves the interests of all parties, and calls on the international community to maximize and combine efforts to achieve this just goal.”
In his speech recorded during the opening of the fifth edition of the “Cairo Water Week” conference, under the title “Water at the heart of climate action,” Sisi added that “Egypt’s firm vision regarding dealing with the Nile River is joint work and cooperation, with the aim of perpetuating and sharing prosperity instead of Rivalry and rivalry that leads to sharing poverty and instability.”
Al-Sisi also continued, “Egypt is destined to be at the center of three intertwined challenges, water and food security and climate change; Egypt is the driest country in the world, and depends almost exclusively on the Nile for its renewable water resources, of which about 80 percent go to the agricultural sector, the source of livelihood for more than 60 million people, who are half of Egypt’s population.
Al-Sisi pointed out that Egypt's water resources are unable to meet the needs of its residents, despite the policy of rationalizing consumption through the frequent reuse of agricultural irrigation water.
comprehensive approach
In his speech, Sisi stressed that Egypt will adopt a comprehensive approach, with the aim of successfully dealing with water and food security challenges and the related climate challenges, as a matter of national security for Egypt. At the national level, the State has adopted the National Water Resources Management Strategy, which aims to provide drinking water, improve its quality, and rationalize and develop water resources by all possible means. Egypt has also adopted a food security policy that balances domestic production and food imports. Thanks to this, Egypt has been able to maintain its water and food security in light of global and regional crises.
He also pointed out that at the regional level, Egypt has always been a pioneer in its dealings with the Nile River in advancing the rules and principles of international law related to shared rivers, foremost of which is cooperation and consultation in order to avoid causing harm within the framework of managing transboundary water resources.
He also explained that Egypt's vision is to work with all parties for the purpose of perpetuating and sharing prosperity, rather than competition and rivalry that leads to sharing poverty and instability. As it realizes the seriousness of this issue, it therefore seeks to settle the issue of the “Renaissance Dam” in a manner that achieves the interests of all parties, and calls on the international community to maximize and combine efforts to achieve this just goal.
Abi Ahmed indicated that the filling was carried out in a smooth manner without any damage to the water share of the downstream countries, adding at the time that 22 billion cubic meters were seized, and one turbine was operated in the dam to generate electric power, without harming the downstream countries or their water shares.
He also added that during the mobilization, the water did not stop for one day, and it was flowing and going to the downstream countries, and indicated that, Ethiopia is keen to invest its resources and provide electricity to its people without harming others, stressing that his country's goal is to work with downstream countries to achieve common development.
Rejection of the Egypt-Sudan agreement
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs had previously announced that Ethiopia had informed it of the start of the third filling of the “Renaissance” dam last July, and said that it had directed to the UN Security Council an objection to Ethiopia’s plans to fill it unilaterally without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan.
Egypt accuses Ethiopia of violating the initial agreement signed between the three countries in 2015, and prohibits any of them from taking unilateral measures in the use of the river's water. The Nile River, however, Addis Ababa rejects this and stresses that the dam, which it began construction about a decade ago, does not aim to harm anyone.
Ethiopia had launched the project, estimated to be worth about $4 billion, in 2011 and aims to build the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa, but it raises regional tensions, especially with Egypt, which depends on the Nile River to provide about 90 percent of its irrigation water needs. and drinking.
The Renaissance Dam is located on the Blue Nile in the Benishangul-Gemuz region, about 30 km from the border with Sudan, with a length of 1.8 km and a height of 145 meters.
On the other hand, on February 28, Egypt announced that it had entered the stage of water poverty years ago, with the per capita share of water declining to about 558 cubic meters annually, which is equal to half the poverty rate of 1,000 cubic meters.
As for Egypt’s total water needs, it amounts to about 114 billion cubic meters annually, according to the statement of the Minister of Water Resources on March 28, 2021, while Egypt’s share of the Nile water is 55 billion cubic meters annually, and Sudan’s share of the Nile water is about 18.5 billion cubic meters per year.
It is worth noting that since the launch of the project in 2011, the “Renaissance” dam has sparked a conflict with Sudan and Egypt, which depend on the Nile for their water resources. From a large portion of their share of the Nile water.
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