Homework for Ethiopia
: Give a clear warning to the Egyptian belligerent attitude. They want water, kill and destroy at the same time. I know they are empty threats, but those empty threats should never be tolerated. Egypt depends for its water needs on Ethiopia and should behave politely. In addition to that since Egyptian and dead Junta lobby groups are doing their best to hurt Ethiopia, the goverment in Addis should develop a strategy to counter their activity and defend the Ethiopian national interest.
Renaissance Dam: Contacts with Egypt to ensure the exclusion of a military solution
A shortage of manpower in the dam (Eduardo Soteras/AFP)
Egyptian diplomatic sources told Al-Araby that during the past five days, Cairo received many oral messages from different mediators in the issue of the Renaissance Dam, Arab and Western, all focused on the necessity of excluding a military solution from the future of resolving the conflict. She explained that the mediators confirmed that no party would accept harm "of any kind on Egypt", in light of the new information received from Ethiopia indicating that the process of the second filling may witness additional technical difficulties than what Egypt had previously observed, related to a severe shortage in the number of hands. operating against the backdrop of the tensions in the Benishangul-Gemuz region, on whose land the dam project is being built.
The sources pointed out that the American position, which remains the most important for the Egyptian leadership, is still, despite the poor relations between Washington and Addis Ababa, reluctant to threaten explicit sanctions against Ethiopia over the dam issue, for reasons related primarily to the US-Chinese conflict in East Africa, and seeing Washington that its clear bias towards Cairo will only result in more Ethiopian intransigence, and may deliberately inflict damage on Sudan and Egypt in the short term.
In this context, the sources stated that leaders of the General Intelligence and Egyptian diplomats held three meetings in Washington last week with leaders of the Democratic Party and a number of Republican representatives, in the presence of representatives of the "Brownstein Hyatt-Farber Partner" company for public relations and political pressure,
Egyptian officials tried to convince their American counterparts of the necessity of resolving the issue of the Renaissance Dam.
to discuss a number of common issues, Among them is the issue of the Renaissance Dam, and efforts to improve relations between the Egyptian regime and the new US administration. Egyptian officials tried to convince their counterparts of the need to develop the American position to be more firm, specifically on the issue of the Renaissance Dam, but the American representatives explained many points that make this difficult at the present time, on top of which is the complexity of the file of civil violence and the position of the administration of President Joe Biden in support of Tigray nationality (qawmiyya ) It is a priority issue for all African-American Democratic Party leaders.
According to the sources, the American talk was not without reassurance that no harm would be inflicted on Egypt, in addition to providing the previously mentioned information regarding the difficulties of completing the second filling early, despite the availability of natural climatic conditions for this, in addition to technical problems related to the middle ramp in the dam in particular, which had previously been reported. Monitored by Egyptian technical experts. The sources stated that some members of the team supporting effective US intervention in the issue of the Renaissance Dam had suggested that Egyptian officials provide assurances to Washington in other files, especially human rights issues, represented in the release of a number of detainees with prominent names, who had previously called on US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. specifically to release them
. This team in Washington demands the necessity to play a greater role to protect its interests in the region as a whole from Chinese and Russian interference, and for the White House to renew the call of the parties to a new round of negotiations in Washington, even without playing a direct mediating role, as happened previously in the era of Donald Trump.
He considers that it is possible to limit his role to facilitating and offering alternatives, which contributes to alleviating the fears that existed in the White House when studying the mechanism of the International Quartet proposed by Egypt and Sudan, which Washington had not decided its position on and seemed to have a tendency to keep the situation as it is. and confining its efforts to prevent the issue from developing into a military confrontation between Egypt and Ethiopia. However, these proposals have become less effective now, after imposing sanctions on figures in the Ethiopian government and preventing them from entering America.
The European Union Commission renewed its offer of technical assistance, which was appreciated by the Egyptian side and rejected by Ethiopia
Parallel to those contacts in Washington, other discussions took place at the diplomatic level between Egypt and the European Union Commission that also focused on the need to exclude a military solution, and to engage in “reasonable” negotiations even if “away from the African Union,” with the Commission renewing its offer of technical assistance, which it appreciated The Egyptian side was rejected by Ethiopia.
And Al-Araby previously obtained an Egyptian technical report that explained that all climatic indicators are conducive to starting the process of the second filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam during the current May, which means stopping the process of draining water from the dam’s lake into the Blue Nile course, and starting storage, in preparation for the implementation of the ramp. Required in the body of the dam on the one hand, and the reservation of a quantity that may reach 13 billion cubic meters of water. The technical report stated that the new climate forecasts for the summer flood, which is considered to have actually started early in eastern Africa this year, indicate an increase in the amount of water that will fall on the Abyssinia plateau by between 400 and 600 percent, over the usual average in the same period. than last year, which means the flood will be bigger than last year.
Despite the elements of this information reassuring to the Egyptian side, especially the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, regarding the lack of significant damage in the quantities of water that will flow into Egypt, and Ethiopia’s inability to maneuver in a detrimental way to the downstream countries, as well as its inability to manipulate the quantities of retained water. , especially if its capacity to reserve water is completed earlier than the date it set in advance by the end of next July, but these indicators may enable Ethiopia for the second time in a row to fill without having to sign an agreement on the rules of filling and operation, whether temporary or permanent and comprehensive. Which may lead to postponing the negotiation process for a longer period. The report stated that there are several technical elements that will govern the extent of Ethiopia's ability to fill early, in light of the fact that filling may take less than a quarter of the predetermined time in light of climatic developments. Among these elements is the efficiency of the process of draining the water currently running into the lake of the Roseires Dam in southern Sudan, the technical efficiency of the reserve dam, and the time schedule for completing the middle ramp of the dam based on the new stored quantity, so that the storage period can be prolonged or shortened based on the availability of early heightening requirements.