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Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 25 May 2021, 17:11

Shoukry's statements about the dam .. and why was the preliminary (preparing the ground for the subject ) absent ?!

Imad Eddin Hussein

Posted in: Saturday May 22, 2021

We have to admit that there is a real shock among large sectors of the Egyptian public opinion, after the statements of Ambassador Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs, last Wednesday. It does not matter much whether this shock is justified or not.

Shukry conducted an interview with colleague Nashat Al-Daihi on Ten Channel, in which he said, commenting on Egyptian concerns about the implementation by Ethiopia of the second filling of the Renaissance Dam without a legal and binding agreement with Egypt and Sudan: “We must all be assured that we have a balance of safety available in the High Dam reservoir. , And we have confidence that the second filling of the Renaissance Dam will not affect Egyptian interests, and we can deal with it through tight procedures in managing our water resources.

After the publication of these statements, which took place in Paris on the sidelines of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's visit to France, many Egyptians were frustrated, and I personally met multiple examples of these.

I know by virtue of my work that Egypt will not actually give up any drop of water from its share, and if that happens, it will act in defense of these rights, but that did not reach in a clear and good way to the public opinion.

Personally, I was not surprised by Minister Shukry's statements, as I met him within a group of writers and journalists weeks ago at the Supreme Council for Media Regulation, and on that day he said clearly that Egypt would act if it was affected by an unbearable damage to its water share.

I remember after that I wrote an article that contained: “And who determines the extent of the damage ?!”, the essence of which was that in this case, Ethiopia will make sure in the next few months not to damage our water share in the second or even the third or even a few years to come, and that the problem is not in Filling the dam, especially since Egypt agreed to the idea of ​​building it when it signed the agreement of principles in 2025.

But the real problem is that the dam will later turn into a prison for extorting Egypt, and perhaps selling life to it, which affects the lives of Egyptians and turns Ethiopia into a dominant regional power.

When Shukry said these statements, all those who followed the file realized that Egypt would not move on the ground towards the dam unless it was subjected to tangible damage.

A few days later, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi spoke in the Suez Canal, and in response to a question by the media, Al-Daihi also grew up, what is the implication that Egypt's share of water is a red line and that it will not give up a single point of water.

In practice, the president’s words do not differ much in substance with Sameh Shoukry’s words that Egypt will not give up a single drop of water. This means that the Egyptian move will take place when Egypt's water rights are threatened, not before.

However, a large number of Egyptians understood from these statements and other subsequent official statements that Egypt will fight Ethiopia tomorrow, and may even occupy the Ethiopian Benishangul area and disrupt or destroy the dam. While all the Egyptian statements are a message to Ethiopia that Egypt is serious about protecting its water rights, and a message to influential regional and international powers to pressure Ethiopia to stop obstinacy and evasiveness and reach a compromise solution that preserves the rights of all parties.

She discussed with many Egyptian officials, and reached the conviction that Egypt cannot give up a single drop of water, because it has already entered the water thirst stage.

But the problem that occurred after Minister Shukry's statements was that the preparation was not sufficiently and adequately for the public opinion, and that we explain to him that there was no Egyptian concession or retreat from the previous positions, and that the lesson is in the conclusions, results and facts on the ground, and not only by statements despite the importance of the latter.

All those responsible for this vital file and the media were supposed to start a comprehensive awareness-raising process for public opinion, about what we are doing, and that there has been no retreat.

If this preliminary had happened, we would not have seen the state of shock, despair and frustration that afflicted and afflicted many Egyptian citizens of all ranks, and made them believe that Ethiopia would cut off water from Egypt tomorrow, and that thirst would inevitably come. Therefore, Minister Sameh Shoukry's talk with Amr Adib on Friday evening was good, to correct what the first statements caused with Al-Daihi.

My appreciation is that we made a mistake in the process of preparing the public opinion, and my appreciation also that we should have been more decisive and strong with Ethiopia when it fled from signing the agreement in Washington in November 2019.

But in all cases the evaluation, the lesson and the calculation with the endings and the results on the ground.

What if Egypt were to attack The Dam ?

ዒማድ ኣ(ል)ዲን (ዓምደ ሃይማኖት !! ) ሑሰይን ፡ የግብጽ ፓርላማ ኣባልና ጸሃፊ ፡ በቪድዮዋ ምን ይላል ?

ባጭሩ ፥

1 ) የውጭ ሰዎች ፡ ላቭሮቭን ጭምር ፡ እዚ መጥተው ሲናገሩ ወይም የኢትዮጵያ ኣቋም ይደግፋሉ ወይም ደሞ ገለልተኛ ሆነው ይቀርባሉ ። ( ትርጉሙ ፥ ግድቡን ከውሃ ባሻገር የጂኦፖለቲካዊ ችግር ስለሚያመጣልን ለምን ኣጥቅተን እንዲወድም ኣናደርግም የሚል ጥያቄ በቀላል ሊመለስ ኣይችልም ። )

2) የሳተላይት ስእሎች እንደሚያመለክቱት እስካሁን ድረስ ግድቡን በተመደበው እቅድ መሰረት እንዲሞላ የሚያስፈልገው ከፍታ ሶስተኛ ብቻ ስለ ደረሰ ሁለተኛው ሙሌቱ በከፊል ሆኖ ለኛ የማይጎዳ ይሆናል ። የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት የራሱ የውስጥ ጉዳይ ችግር ስላለው ለግዜው በተገኘው ውሃ ተርባይኖች ኣንቀሳቅሶ ለህዝቡን ለማሳየት ይፈልጋል ። ( ዒማድ ኣ(ል)ዲን ያስተስሰቡ ሃይል ከብዙ ግብጻውያን የተሻለ ስለ ሆነ ረጋ ንበል ባይ ነው ። )

Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 25 May 2021, 20:59

A Sudanese official confirms that Ethiopia has already started the second filling .. Social networking sites in Egypt are burning with anger, experts describe the matter as a disaster, and a talk about water wars after what happened to the Euphrates River.

Ibn al-nuba ( Southern Egypt . He is a black man) :

For everyone who was surprised by the news .. I can assure you that Ethiopia will fill the dam and will not cause any harm to Egypt or Sudan .. Stop shouting .. Egypt and Sudan are fine .. . "The dry season will shrink the Nile and dry up ", is a lie and it mainly comes from politicians who have a hidden agenda to arouse people's feelings and play with our future.

Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 26 May 2021, 20:54

Abe Abraham wrote:
26 May 2021, 07:02
ዘፈኑ ምን ይላል ፥

ሹፊ ኣልናስ ዴል ያ ቢነያ
ዓመሉ ምን ኣልሰድ ገዲያ
ሓለፉ ዩፋዉዱ ቢልሃዊያ
ያእኹዱ ኣልሞያ ቢልዘንዲያ

ኣልሰድ ሓበሺ ማ መስሪ
ዎ ኣልተኽዚን የኩን በድሪ
ያ ኢብን ኣልኒል ለው ተድሪ
ሑክም ኣልቓባ ማ ቢየስሪ

ኣልሰድ ሓበሺ ማ ሱዳኒ
ሌሽ ኩትር ኣልከላም ታኒ
ሓዚ ኣልዓስር ኣልኸላኒ
ኣኩን ፊ ኣልኒል ኣልኣዋላኒ !!

ያ ሰላላላላላላም !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Abe Abraham
Senior Member
Posts: 13186
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 28 May 2021, 12:31

Al-Sisi is on a historic visit, the first by an Egyptian president to Djibouti.. What is behind the hill? Is the decisive hour approaching? Moqalled: It may be the penultimate scenario in the series of scenarios for managing the Dam the Dam file ... and Ambassador Farghali Taha confirms: No single African country will stand with Egypt against Ethiopia, and do not wait for anything but good mediation

Cairo - Mahmoud Al-Qaei:

President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's visit to Djibouti today sparked a broad debate among observers.
Al-Sisi affirmed his great pleasure to be in Djibouti, referring to his pride in being the first president of the Arab Republic of Egypt to pay an official visit to Djibouti, this pivotal country that plays an important role in its regional environment.

Al-Sisi said that he had held fruitful and constructive bilateral talks with President Guelleh, which dealt with discussing ways to strengthen and develop bilateral relations between Egypt and Djibouti at various political, economic, security and military levels, and they agreed on the importance of launching the relations between the two countries to broader horizons, by increasing the rates of trade exchange. Between the two countries, as well as intensifying cooperation in the field of capacity building through training programs provided by the Egyptian Agency for Partnership for Development.

Al-Sisi added that, in this context, they agreed on the importance of joint work towards providing the necessary support to increase Egyptian investments in Djibouti, allowing Egyptian companies to contribute to infrastructure projects, in addition to facilitating the entry of more Egyptian exports to the Djiboutian market and proceeding with the opening of a branch of Banque Misr. In Djibouti, they also agreed on the importance of expediting the procedures for the establishment of the Egyptian logistics zone in Djibouti during the coming period to facilitate the export of various Egyptian goods, in addition to strengthening cooperation in the priority sectors, especially in the field of transport and linking ports, and the field of health. An Egyptian hospital in Djibouti, as well as cooperation in the field of fish farming.

Al-Sisi said that it was agreed

It also intensified efforts in the field of combating extremist ideology and rehabilitating preachers by intensifying the activity of Al-Azhar Al-Sharif in this regard, which would contribute to enhancing stability in our Arab and African surroundings.

Al-Sisi said that today’s meeting came as a culmination of joint efforts over the past period to advance bilateral cooperation between the two countries, and to set an integrated strategic framework and a common vision for various aspects and areas of cooperation and ways to advance them in the coming period, confirming the common political will in this regard, paving the way for a new phase of partnership. Linking the two countries.

Al-Sisi said that the bilateral talks today come in light of exceptional circumstances that the East and Horn of Africa region is going through, against the background of a number of conflicts and conflicts that it is witnessing, and the challenges of stabilizing security and stability in some of its countries, noting that the overall regional situation was addressed during the talks, in light of what It represents an important challenge for the region, and agreed on the importance of strengthening cooperation to support regional security and stability, and joint action to avoid the spread of some conflicts to neighboring countries, which might threaten the state of peace and security in the dear African continent.

Al-Sisi said that it was agreed on the importance of intensifying cooperation between the two countries in relation to the security of the Red Sea as an important strategic artery of great importance to both sides, noting that the developments related to the issue of the Renaissance Dam, a file that affects the vital interests of the entire region, were reviewed.

Al-Sisi said that it was stressed the inevitability of reaching a fair and balanced agreement on filling and operating the Renaissance Dam at the earliest opportunity, in a manner that achieves the interests of all and enhances the bonds of cooperation and integration between the countries and peoples of the region, noting that Egypt’s rejection of any attempt to impose a fait accompli was confirmed through Unilateral actions that do not take into account the interests and rights of the two downstream countries. Do not wait for nothing but good mediation !!

Ambassador Farghali Taha Noh

He pointed out that developing relations with Djibouti in general and continuously is an unavoidable necessity, calling for us not to go far in certain expectations linking this visit to the problem with Ethiopia in an exaggeration.

Taha added that in a nutshell, Djibouti will not play any role on our side against Ethiopia, except for the role of benign mediation in the matter, indicating that he does not expect much of that, given what is known about Ethiopia and those behind it and the limited capabilities of Djibouti despite (and perhaps due to) the vitality and intimacy of its relations with Ethiopia ..!

Taha added that in general, no African country (even an Arab, except for Sudan) would stand by Egypt and against Ethiopia on this water issue, indicating that Sudan stands with us because it is exposed to harm like us, and if it does not suffer harm, then its stance will not be against Ethiopia. .

And Taha continued, "This talk is not diplomatic, but it is real, intended and necessary."Taha concluded by wishing the visit a success, and continued cooperation and coordination with Djibouti in the Horn of Africa region, now and in the future.

What is behind the heap ?!

In the opinion of Dr. Ismail Sabri Makled, a professor of political science and international relations :lol: :lol: , the visit of President Sisi today to the state of Djibouti at such a precise time and amid this huge amount of his concerns and responsibilities internally and externally, indicates that behind the hill behind it, as it is said, and that this sudden move may be the scenario Before the last in a series of scenarios for managing the file of the Ethiopian ruin dam crisis in its decisive and final stage.

Moqalled added that all the moves are well thought out, and all the steps are taken, taking into account that all possibilities are possible.

Why Djibouti?

In the opinion of Alaa Awad :lol: :lol: , Djibouti is one of the axes of the war game in the Horn of Africa, which made America's interests converge with the goals of Egypt and Sudan in Ethiopia.

Awad added that in order to realize the extent of the importance of that visit scheduled today and its role in the event of an undeclared war between Egypt and Ethiopia, we must understand that Djibouti is the lung of Ethiopia and has been for 20 years the main sea port for Ethiopia

And if that lung stopped working, Addis Ababa would immediately suffocate, and financial chaos descended into it through price inflation and shortage of goods and fuel, and Abi Ahmed’s government became under an economic siege at a time when it was reeling militarily through the wars of attrition it was waging on more than one front, whether in the Fashqa region with Sudan or the force of strikes. And the steadfastness of the resistance in the Tigray War, the Ormoa front, the Beni Shankol front, and soon, after President Sisi's visit to Djibouti ( google translated it as " my pocket "/ jubay in Tigrigna ! :lol: :lol: ) , the fourth front in eastern Ethiopia, specifically the Afar region, will ignite.

Awad :lol: :lol: added that the key to that region, militarily and in terms of security, is in the hands of Djibouti and its allies there, ethnicity Issawiya.

And if chaos erupted and security instability was achieved in the Afar region, the government of Abi Ahmed were to die by a knockout blow, then why?

The Ethiopian capital will be under siege by the fire of war and the thunder of cannons.

He said that 95% of the Abyssinian trade passes through this route, whether through heavy and light transport shipments, or rail, the main means of transportation for Ethiopia to reach the sea ports, which connects the capital, Addis Ababa, to the port of Dorale in Djibouti.

Awad concluded by stressing that the visit of the Egyptian President to Djibouti today has multiple strategic objectives, wishing that it will be crowned with success and achieve its economic and military objectives in protecting Egypt's security and stability, especially that Djibouti is an important gateway to the Suez Canal and must be supported economically and that Egypt seeks to establish a military base for it there to protect its national security and be It serves as a spearhead with which to achieve multiple goals at the security, regional and economic levels, ensuring Egypt's strong and permanent presence in the Horn of Africa, which has been long overdue.

And he added, "There is no doubt that this constitutes a continuous pressure card on the state of Ethiopia."

Readers Comments :

tanmiyya shamillah :

Simple information.

Most of Djibouti's water needs come from Ethiopia for free. Ethiopia has 12 rivers and exports a huge amount of water to Djibouti at no cost. Djibouti does not have water resources

Almost half of Djibouti's electricity needs come from connecting lines with Ethiopia.

The largest user of Djibouti ports is Ethiopia. It is an important source of income for Djibouti and provides job opportunities for its citizens.

*** The advocates of crises and wars between neighbors will fail. And Sisi is smarter than hearing their empty antagonists. He knows that this project is important not only for Ethiopia, but for the entire region.

Glory to all countries of the continent. And forward with development.

Ibn Al-Nuba ( From Southern Egypt, a black man who calls himself Son of Nuba ) :

We are tired of hearing these warmongers and their evil dreams about using the peaceful city of Djibouti to drag people into the so-called war with Ethiopia. And using the various tribes in that small country to realize their unrealistic dreams of Arab supremacy..

No one can forget what we Nubians suffer in Egypt because of this kind of people... I can assure them if they start messing with Ethiopia. .. We will not see Egypt as we know it now, the only remaining Arab army will be dragged for years in a war that will be worse than reducing the waters of the Nile ...

We the Nuba people have suffered a lot throughout our modern history. Egypt, because of this kind of mentality, we were treated as second-class to serve them and they are now pressuring our Djiboutian brothers to follow their evil intentions ... I hope this reminds people who are beating the drums of war to wake up and stop barking.

Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 29 May 2021, 20:03

Homework for Ethiopia : Give a clear warning to the Egyptian belligerent attitude. They want water, kill and destroy at the same time. I know they are empty threats, but those empty threats should never be tolerated. Egypt depends for its water needs on Ethiopia and should behave politely. In addition to that since Egyptian and dead Junta lobby groups are doing their best to hurt Ethiopia, the goverment in Addis should develop a strategy to counter their activity and defend the Ethiopian national interest.

Renaissance Dam: Contacts with Egypt to ensure the exclusion of a military solution

- Cairo,

A shortage of manpower in the dam (Eduardo Soteras/AFP)

Egyptian diplomatic sources told Al-Araby that during the past five days, Cairo received many oral messages from different mediators in the issue of the Renaissance Dam, Arab and Western, all focused on the necessity of excluding a military solution from the future of resolving the conflict. She explained that the mediators confirmed that no party would accept harm "of any kind on Egypt", in light of the new information received from Ethiopia indicating that the process of the second filling may witness additional technical difficulties than what Egypt had previously observed, related to a severe shortage in the number of hands. operating against the backdrop of the tensions in the Benishangul-Gemuz region, on whose land the dam project is being built.
Egyptian officials tried to convince their American counterparts of the necessity of resolving the issue of the Renaissance Dam.
The sources pointed out that the American position, which remains the most important for the Egyptian leadership, is still, despite the poor relations between Washington and Addis Ababa, reluctant to threaten explicit sanctions against Ethiopia over the dam issue, for reasons related primarily to the US-Chinese conflict in East Africa, and seeing Washington that its clear bias towards Cairo will only result in more Ethiopian intransigence, and may deliberately inflict damage on Sudan and Egypt in the short term.

In this context, the sources stated that leaders of the General Intelligence and Egyptian diplomats held three meetings in Washington last week with leaders of the Democratic Party and a number of Republican representatives, in the presence of representatives of the "Brownstein Hyatt-Farber Partner" company for public relations and political pressure, to discuss a number of common issues, Among them is the issue of the Renaissance Dam, and efforts to improve relations between the Egyptian regime and the new US administration. Egyptian officials tried to convince their counterparts of the need to develop the American position to be more firm, specifically on the issue of the Renaissance Dam, but the American representatives explained many points that make this difficult at the present time, on top of which is the complexity of the file of civil violence and the position of the administration of President Joe Biden in support of Tigray nationality (qawmiyya ) It is a priority issue for all African-American Democratic Party leaders.

According to the sources, the American talk was not without reassurance that no harm would be inflicted on Egypt, in addition to providing the previously mentioned information regarding the difficulties of completing the second filling early, despite the availability of natural climatic conditions for this, in addition to technical problems related to the middle ramp in the dam in particular, which had previously been reported. Monitored by Egyptian technical experts. The sources stated that some members of the team supporting effective US intervention in the issue of the Renaissance Dam had suggested that Egyptian officials provide assurances to Washington in other files, especially human rights issues, represented in the release of a number of detainees with prominent names, who had previously called on US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. specifically to release them. This team in Washington demands the necessity to play a greater role to protect its interests in the region as a whole from Chinese and Russian interference, and for the White House to renew the call of the parties to a new round of negotiations in Washington, even without playing a direct mediating role, as happened previously in the era of Donald Trump. He considers that it is possible to limit his role to facilitating and offering alternatives, which contributes to alleviating the fears that existed in the White House when studying the mechanism of the International Quartet proposed by Egypt and Sudan, which Washington had not decided its position on and seemed to have a tendency to keep the situation as it is. and confining its efforts to prevent the issue from developing into a military confrontation between Egypt and Ethiopia. However, these proposals have become less effective now, after imposing sanctions on figures in the Ethiopian government and preventing them from entering America.
The European Union Commission renewed its offer of technical assistance, which was appreciated by the Egyptian side and rejected by Ethiopia
Parallel to those contacts in Washington, other discussions took place at the diplomatic level between Egypt and the European Union Commission that also focused on the need to exclude a military solution, and to engage in “reasonable” negotiations even if “away from the African Union,” with the Commission renewing its offer of technical assistance, which it appreciated The Egyptian side was rejected by Ethiopia.
And Al-Araby previously obtained an Egyptian technical report that explained that all climatic indicators are conducive to starting the process of the second filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam during the current May, which means stopping the process of draining water from the dam’s lake into the Blue Nile course, and starting storage, in preparation for the implementation of the ramp. Required in the body of the dam on the one hand, and the reservation of a quantity that may reach 13 billion cubic meters of water. The technical report stated that the new climate forecasts for the summer flood, which is considered to have actually started early in eastern Africa this year, indicate an increase in the amount of water that will fall on the Abyssinia plateau by between 400 and 600 percent, over the usual average in the same period. than last year, which means the flood will be bigger than last year.

Despite the elements of this information reassuring to the Egyptian side, especially the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, regarding the lack of significant damage in the quantities of water that will flow into Egypt, and Ethiopia’s inability to maneuver in a detrimental way to the downstream countries, as well as its inability to manipulate the quantities of retained water. , especially if its capacity to reserve water is completed earlier than the date it set in advance by the end of next July, but these indicators may enable Ethiopia for the second time in a row to fill without having to sign an agreement on the rules of filling and operation, whether temporary or permanent and comprehensive. Which may lead to postponing the negotiation process for a longer period. The report stated that there are several technical elements that will govern the extent of Ethiopia's ability to fill early, in light of the fact that filling may take less than a quarter of the predetermined time in light of climatic developments. Among these elements is the efficiency of the process of draining the water currently running into the lake of the Roseires Dam in southern Sudan, the technical efficiency of the reserve dam, and the time schedule for completing the middle ramp of the dam based on the new stored quantity, so that the storage period can be prolonged or shortened based on the availability of early heightening requirements.


Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 30 May 2021, 03:29

The Egyptians are getting desperate. Ethiopia is playing the psychological game in an excellent fashion. Continue, I would advise. The Egyptians are trying to see if they could achieve their aims through threats, akin to someone who threatens to use nuclear weapons or give " his enemy " the impression that he is surrounded by simple visits to Uganda and Kenya and some military exercises with Sudan !!!

The late Egyptian actor Ali Sharif had the habit of uttering " I will break everything in your heads " when he gets angry and didn't receive what he wanted. Kind of Sisi and his advisors !! I guess Trump was right when he told Al-Sisi " Go on ! Attack the Dam if you want. ( Don't threaten by coming to us, the Americans )

America warns: A military solution to the Renaissance Dam crisis will be catastrophic for the region.. And a spokeswoman for the European Union: There is no military solution to the crisis between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia.. What happens in the most dangerous file? Egyptian experts affirm that the decision should be in the hands of Egypt and warn of the dire consequences and remind “the world will be taken by force.”

Cairo - - Mahmoud Al-Qaei:

It seems that a lot of water flowed into the river. Hours after the United States warned that a military solution to the Ethiopian dam crisis would be catastrophic for the region, the spokeswoman for the European Union announced it publicly: There is no military solution to the crisis between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the Renaissance Dam.

The spokeswoman for the European Union added in statements to Al-Jazeera that a settlement of the Renaissance Dam crisis must be reached through a compatible solution between the three countries, stressing that the Renaissance Dam negotiations must be resumed under the auspices of the African Union as soon as possible.


On the other hand, a large number of Egyptian experts expressed their anger at the American position.
Mohamed Nasr Allam, the former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation, said that America warns of the catastrophic military solution, but it did not announce that Ethiopia’s intention to fill the second dam without a legal agreement on the rules, filling and operation is the main cause of the crisis.

And Allam added: Wow!

Allam added that the United States strongly criticizes Ethiopia and its racist policies with its citizens and has imposed some economic and security sanctions on the Ethiopian regime, noting that it is strange that it is also very keen on Abi Ahmed's success in the elections and marketing the second filling of the Ethiopian dam to increase its popularity.

The solution

In the opinion of Ambassador Masoum Marzouk, the solution does not lie with America, indicating that the crisis maker does not solve it.
Marzouk added that Ethiopia simply wants to impose a fait accompli. Marzouk concluded that the solution is to change the status quo by all legitimate means.

No dams

For his part, Ambassador Farghali Taha said that some are wondering: Assuming that Egypt destroyed the dam, what guarantees that Ethiopia and those behind it from the conspirators against Egypt will not build the dam again?

And Taha replied: Egypt said before the days of Abdel Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak, that there are no dams that prevent water from us, and it agreed to other countries, including Ethiopia, and cooperated with it in building small dams, and it must say to Ethiopia and to others now and always: that there are no dams that prevent our share of water, and there are no dams Unless we agree to the conditions, method of operation, management, size and quantity of its stock, and otherwise, what will be built will be demolished .. It is over ..!
Taha concluded that this should be a single and continuous policy and message from Egypt, just as we say: Whoever attacks our borders is an invader and occupier, he must be resisted and eliminated.
He concluded by saying: There are no caveats in that, because all countries defend their sovereignty and their lives without fearing anyone.


For his part, the Egyptian writer Abbas Mansour said that the Nile is the pillar of Egypt's identity, and whoever wants to eat life with the support of the government in its position, would he eat at the expense of himself, away from the people's livelihood.

The world is taken by force.

Others recalled the words of the Prince of Poets Shawqi: The demands are not attained by wishful thinking, but the world is taken by force.

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 30 May 2021, 06:02

The Egyptian strategy has been as follows : First they tried all they could to deny Ethiopia from getting money to finance the dam and then when the dam begun to become reality Al-Sisi signed the 2015 agreement in the hope of eventually hoodwinking Ethiopia into signing a legally binding paper with regard to legalising the water sharing agreement of 1959 signed between Sudan and Egypt.

Now the Egyptians are getting nervous because it became apparent to them that Ethiopia is not going to sign a legally binding agreement that would asign to it ZERO share of the water that flows from its border. In addition to that the Egyptians are worried that the Dam by itself could have a geopolitical benefit for Ethiopia.

Hassan Nafaa: There is no alternative for Egypt but to destroy the Renaissance Dam

The prominent Egyptian academic, Hassan Nafaa (ሓሰን ናፍዓ ), said that "there is no alternative for Egypt but to strike, to destroy a dam that will inevitably lead to its ruin (TO THE RUIN OF EGYPT ) within a few years."

"Especially if Ethiopia insists on the second filling without an agreement. But when and how do we ensure that the inevitable strike achieves its goals? This is a question that only the Egyptian military establishment can answer, and we trust it," he said. .

ሓሰን ናፍዓ is not a professor of the regime. As a matter of fact he spent sometime in prison in the past few years for clashing with the Egyptian government on its internal and external policy.

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 30 May 2021, 23:37

The Zionists played with the brain of the Ethiopians.. Mamdouh Hamza reveals dangerous details about the Renaissance Dam and who is behind its financing.

Crazy consultant engineer Mamdouh Hamza ( ኣል-ሙሃንዲስ መምዱሕ ሓምዛ ) al-harib ( ከመንግስት ሸሽቶ ለንደን የገባ ) ፥ ....There have been five attempts in the past to change the course of the Nile starting from the days of the Portugese who proposed to the king of Ethiopia to make the Nile change its direction and flow into the RED SEA ....then (at that time ) there was never a question of development or the complaint that Egypt was preventing Ethiopia from carrying out its legitimate development programmes .....Libya is twice the size of Egyt with almost 8 million habitants while the population of Egypt exceeds 100 million ...the secret is the Nile .....

While Egypt is the puppet of the West and its obedient dog the crazy old man believes that there is a conspiracy being woven against Egypt ( ህዳሴና እድገት ሳይሆን ትንፋሳችን ሊቆርጡ ይፈልጋሉ !! ) by the West and Israel .....His proposal : DESTROY THE RENAISSANCE DAM ( ከህዳሴ ግድብ የሚል ስያሜ ፈርቶ ሰድ ኣል-ሓበሽ ወይም ያበሻ ግድብ ብሎ ይጠረዋል ) BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE !!

Someone should report him to the police or any psychiatric hospital !!

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 01 Jun 2021, 07:13

The Egyptians with their racist attitude do not have respect for Africans. They think they could persuade Djibouti and Sudan to allow them to attack Ethiopia from their territory at the cost of their national security. Attack and run away leaving Djibouti and Sudan alone to face the ire of millions of Ethiopians and Africans!!!! Sheer stupidity and arrogance !!!


By the way, the excellent statement by PM Dr. Abyot Ahmed Ali about constructing 100 small dams is timely,wise and praiseworthy.

Experts: The Egyptian Logistics Zone in Djibouti is a late step

The military solution was too late and too late, and it should have been prepared for a long time and not in the "lost time", according to experts - Facebook

The recent announcement of the establishment of an Egyptian logistic zone in Djibouti raised many questions about the importance of the step, especially on the military side, in the event of a crisis with Ethiopia over the “Renaissance Dam” file.

A number of experts, with whom Arabi spoke, considered that Egypt was long overdue in taking such steps, which would have prompted Ethiopia to retreat from the second filling and reach an agreement that satisfies all parties to the crisis.

During the visit of the head of the Egyptian regime, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, to Djibouti, Cairo announced a project to establish a logistical free zone in the country bordering Ethiopia.

The official spokesman for the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ahmed Hafez, said in a statement to the ministry; The project to establish an Egyptian logistical free zone in Djibouti aims to revive the economies of the Horn of Africa countries, attract Egyptian investments to Djibouti, as well as increase trade exchange between the countries of the region.

In confirmation of what was agreed upon and activated, Egypt sent, on Friday, two military cargo planes, carrying large quantities of medical aid to Djibouti.

Can the logistics area be employed militarily?

In an interview with Arabi, a professor of political science at Helwan University, Jihad Odeh, said; The logistical area may appear as a commercial and economic area to support trade relations between the two countries, but its role is not necessarily limited to this function only.

Odeh added: "It can be employed for more than one purpose, whether military or otherwise," and to put pressure on Ethiopia, given that Djibouti is its main maritime window.

He added that any military operation requires setting up a theater and providing logistical support. "Then, regardless of the name of the region; it can be employed for more than one purpose, and this is a good move, although it has been somewhat delayed, but what he realizes does not leave all of it," he said.

On the possibility of a military strike, Odeh said; It is possible to make a limited and swift move, "and here Egypt must play an important role in preparing world public opinion for such action."

"The military solution is too late"

As for the military expert, Brigadier General Muhammad Badr, he believes that the military solution is too late and too late, and it should have been prepared for a long time and not in the "lost time".

Badr said in an interview with "Arabi ": The recent moves appear to be good, whether with regard to the Djibouti logistical zone, Sudan maneuvers, or other military agreements. "But the problem is in timing, as it consumed a lot of time, especially since Ethiopia's intentions were clear from the beginning, in addition to the fact that this issue is an existential issue that cannot be dealt with in a long-term political way, which covets the opponent more and more."

The military expert raised several questions, such as: "What about the 2015 Khartoum agreement (regarding the Renaissance Dam), was it presented to the people and a referendum on it? Was it presented to Parliament for discussion and opinion on it? Was it threatened to withdraw from it through a parliamentary vote on it?" ".

He explained that answering these questions is important before talking about any military action, stressing that the issue is more dangerous than the Renaissance Dam, where there is another dam that Ethiopia intends to build to turn the Blue Nile into an Ethiopian lake, and this is the deeper danger, as he put it, considering that all of that It comes "as part of a systematic plan to bring Egypt to its knees, and perhaps threaten its existence."

Can the "delay" be understood?

As for the expert at the Al-Ahram Center for Political Studies, Sameh Rashid, he stressed the importance of this step, but it came at least five years late, according to his estimation.

But Rashid expressed, in an interview with "Arabi 2", that he believes that this can be rectified, considering that the most important thing is to invest the step in the broadest way, especially since the agreement between Egypt and Djibouti included economic, political, security and military cooperation.

He added: "Despite the pessimism of some about the possibility of taking any action, it can be said that any deterrent action can be taken in a short time, if there is a will, especially since what we can call preparing and preparing a stage for such a step has been provided, whether through military maneuvers. With Sudan, or military agreements with some other African countries.

He continued, "There are two very important inputs that can be played on mainly and that cause pain and direct damage to Addis Ababa, and make it respond to serious negotiations. The first point is the internal affairs and playing on internal crises in Ethiopia, especially as it is a fragile country with many ethnicities. Second, the border crisis front With Sudan and military clashes, and here this matter can be well exploited through strong Egyptian support for Sudan.”

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 02 Jun 2021, 21:11

Abbas, the good Sudanese, is talking on behalf of Egypt and contradicting himelf by talking implicitly about water sharing while at the same time denying Ethiopia the right to expose the dishonesty of Egypt on that topic. When Egypt says " we would never allow the reduction of even a drop of water from our historical share " it explicitly means that Egypt is talking about the water sharing agreement of 1959 signed between Egypt and Sudan without involving Ethiopia and the rest of the Nile River Basin Countries. ( Egypt wants to maintain a complete control over the Nile : 1 _ through the 1959 agreement 2_trying to dictate Ethiopian water use internally. The recent Egyptian reaction to the announcement of the new water projects by PM Dr Abyot is a clear example. )

Abbas knows that he should talk about the interest of his country and that Ethiopia would never hurt the Sudanese interest. There will always be enough water for Sudan provided Sudan doesn't allow itself to be molested and abused by the racist Egyptians who look down at the noble,gentle and civilized Sudanese.


Ethiopia should pay attention to what Feltman is doing in the Gulf Countries. The guy is working with Al-Sisi and he will exploit any weakness from Ethiopia to the maximum.

Sudan accuses Ethiopia of changing its positions on the Renaissance Dam and rejects talk of sharing water.

Abbas warned of a number of negative effects from the construction of the Renaissance Dam (AFP) Full screen

The Sudanese Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources, Yasser Abbas, accused Ethiopia of changing its position on the Declaration of Principles signed between it, Sudan and Egypt, and "recently started talking about sharing water quotas, which Sudan categorically rejects."

This came during Abbas' meeting in Khartoum, on Wednesday, with a team from the European Union, which is visiting Sudan these days, headed by Katja Alvors, advisor to the Finnish Foreign Minister.

The minister stated that Sudan supported the Renaissance Dam from the beginning and Ethiopia's right to exploit the waters of the Nile in accordance with international water law, noting that the negotiations were limited to reaching an agreement on filling and operation only during nearly ten years, according to the text of the Declaration of Principles signed between the three countries in 2015.

Abbas explained that his country will reap many benefits from the Renaissance Dam, but these benefits will turn into grave risks if a binding legal agreement is not signed, warning of a number of negative effects from the construction of the Renaissance Dam represented in a decrease in the areas of the cliffs and environmental damage to the dam on Sudan.

He stressed the work of Sudan's proposal to expand the umbrella of negotiations undertaken by the African Union, including the United Nations , the European Union and the United States .

Abbas indicated that Ethiopia has already taken the decision to fill in next July, by practically starting to raise the middle passage of the Renaissance Dam last May, indicating that the unilateral filling will start automatically when the water intake exceeds the capacity of the two lower openings, and this will happen when The start of the rainy season.
Last edited by Abe Abraham on 07 Jun 2021, 13:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 03 Jun 2021, 22:32

That is incredible !!

More or less the message is : If you do not take immediate action the people will construe it as an act of cowardice,indecisiveness and reneging on past promises. They have put you between the hammer (መጥረቓ ) and the anvil ( ሲንዳን ) .

A very, very important message to Sisi:

America by preventing Egypt from taking a military solution to the Abyssinian Devastation Dam and not pressuring the Ethiopians, but rather supporting them and of course Europe is behind it ::: their goal is to bring you down •••

If you need details, let Abbas talk to me and come to meet me.

Abbas Kamil, the Egyptian Security Chief.

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 05 Jun 2021, 18:20

Khalid : " Legally, the position of Sudan and Egypt is limited or poor. " He looked at the problem from various sides and explored the possibilities and came to his conclusion. The legal position of Ethiopia is strong. What is left for Egypt and Sudan is diplomatic,economic and military pressure. Of course the last one is crazy or astyubid as the Egyptians would put it !!!

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Jun 2021, 13:17

ሓሰን ናፍዓ :

Many reports talk about the failure of the second filling of the Renaissance Dam for technical reasons. Do not be deceived by them, even if they are true. They confirm Ethiopia's bad intention and it only postpones the problem and not solve it. If Ethiopia insists on the second filling without a binding agreement, there is no alternative but to use force that may take the form of occupying the dam area and not necessarily destroying it. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 13 Jun 2021, 08:32

Details of the Renaissance Dam negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia and the response to Mamdouh Hamza.
ኣጠር ባለ ኣገባብ ንቁ ግብጻዊው ምን ይላል ?

1_መምዱሕ ሓምዛ የተመልካቾቹን የዋህነት በመበዝበዝና የሞያዉን ስልጣን ( authority )* ተጠቅሞ ያስተላለፈውን ስህተተኛ መልእክት ሳይንሳዊ ኣይደለም ። የተርባይኖች ቁጥር ሲቀንስ በሱ ኣኳያ ከግድቡ ወደ ሱዳንና ግብጽ የሚፈስ ውሃ ይቀንሳል የተባለው - በመምዱሕ ሓምዛ - ተቀባይነት የለዉም ። የህዳሴ ግድብ ሲሰራ በውሃ ግፊት ኤለክትሪሲቲ ለማምረት ስለሆነ ኢትዮጵያ ውሃውን ከመጠን በላይ ለማከማቸት እና ኣስራ ለመያዝ ፍላጎት የላትም ። ከህንድስና ስራም የተጻረረ ነው ።

2_ድርድሩ ኣስር ዓመት ፈጅቶ ወደ ማረፍያ ያልደረስበት ምክንያን ግብጽ ኢትዮጵያ በህዳሴ ግድብ ጎርፉ ከየግብጽ ዓመታዊ ድርሻ ከፍ ሲል ለራስዋ ትርፉን ለማስቀረት ተፈቅዶላት ድርቅ በሚሆንበት ጊዜ ደሞ ኢትዮጵያ በሃያል ዝናብ ጊዜ ከግዱቡ በስተጀርባ ከተከማቸውን ትርፍ ውሃ ለግብጽና ሱዳን መስጠት ኣለባት የሚል ኣቋም ስለ ያዘች ነው ። በሌላ ኣነጋገር ግብጽ የምትፈልገው የህዳሴ ግድቡን የራስዋ የውሃ መሰብሰብያ ( መጠራቀምያ፡ ማቆያ ) እንዲሆን ነው ። እኔ እንዲህ ስል ( በመተቸት ፡ የግብጽ ኣቋም ኢ-ፍትሃዊ መሆኑን ሳመለክት !!! ) የህዳሴ ግድቡን እወዳለሁ ወይም እፈልጋለሁ ማለት ኣይደለም ።

* መምዱሕ ሓምዛ ፥ Egyptian (Prof. of Soil Mechanics and Foundations) Founder of Hamza Associates.

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 15 Jun 2021, 11:49

YASSER ABBAS ,are you foolish or are you taking Ethiopia and Africa for a fool ?

As we have stated time and again when you are arguing about the filling period of the dam and declaring the illegal water sharing agreement of 1959 between Egypt and Sudan as sacrosanct then it is clear that you are dealing with water sharing scheme which excludes Ethiopia.

Yasser Abbas, normally a very nice and polite person, should be ashamed of himself. Why is he ostensibly, as a proud black man , lowering himself to this level for the sake of Egypt ? Why can't he learn of Sudanese self-respect from Dr Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi who put an end to the so-called " al-takamul " initiated by the stupid Al-Numeiri with the aim of selling the Sudanese water and land to the Egyptians ?

Yasser Abbas is not rejecting or refusing anything to the contrary he is insisting that his private water sharing agreement with Egypt " be respected " !!!! Someone should make that clear to him if he doesn't seem to get it.

Yasser Abbas announces Sudan's refusal to link the Renaissance Dam to water division

Khartoum : 14-06-2021

Professor Yasser Abbas, Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources, announced Sudan's refusal to link the issue of the Renaissance Dam with the proposal to divide the waters that Ethiopia calls for.

In the forum of the Sudan Agency (SUNA), which was held today, the Minister categorically ruled out that military action :lol: :lol: would be involved as an option in dealing with the issue of the Renaissance Dam, noting that Sudan's options are open on all legal, political and logistical levels.

With regard to the technical aspects to ensure the continuation of agricultural planning and irrigation operations, the minister said that they will be carried out according to what is planned, through storage operations behind the Roseires Dam (one and a half billion), as well as detaining the equivalent of a third of the storage capacity in the Jebel Awliya reservoir after the improvement of the water supply in the White Nile.

The Minister of Irrigation affirmed Sudan’s adherence to the political and legal escalation, as it will submit a request to the Security Council, in addition to presenting its case to the friendly and brotherly countries and all concerned countries, and stressed that presenting the issue to the Arab League does not mean an Arab alignment against an African alignment, but rather it is only a shed light on His position and his explanation of the Arab African countries alike.

In this regard, Abbas stressed that Sudan's position on the African Union has not changed, but the Union cannot solve this issue alone, so Sudan is trying to gather all parties to help solve the dam issue, indicating that the delegations of the Union that visited Sudan recently did not request more information, as the Sudan has all the information in this regard, but they put forward ideas.

The minister described the solution to the issue of the Renaissance Dam as very easy, but the matter of its solution was complicated by the process of politicizing its issue more than possible, noting that although Sudan is the most affected by this dam, besides Egypt and Ethiopia, he is still at his position in maintaining that Ethiopia benefits from The dam project is provided that a consensus agreement is signed in particular, in addition to being directly affected by the construction of the dam due to its proximity to its borders and the Roseires reservoir, which is only 200 km away from it, while it is 2000 km from the High Dam in Egypt and is located to the far west on the Ethiopian border .

In response to a question, he said that the process of disturbing the Blue Nile at the Roseires Dam, which occurred at the beginning of last December, according to the Ethiopian side’s response to the Sudanese side’s inquiry, is due to the experience of opening one of the Renaissance Dam channels and the flow of water through it. He indicated that Sudan’s coordination with Egypt is related to negotiation processes within the framework of Renaissance Dam treatments.

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 16 Jun 2021, 17:25

ጠያቂው ፥ ስምው ኣል-ኣሚር ( ልዑል ሆይ ) በሰድ ኣል-ናህዳ ( የህዳሴ ግድብ ) ኣመልክተው በሚያደርጉት ስብስብ ( ጉባኤ ) ......

ኣል-ኣሚር ሓመድ ቢን ኸሊፋ ኣል-ሳኒ ፥ እዚህ በቐጠር የሚደረገው ?

ጠያቂው ፥ ኣዎ

ኣል-ኣሚር ሓመድ ቢን ኸሊፋ ኣል-ሳኒ ፥ በዚህ በቐጠር በሚደረገው ያለው ስለ ኣል-ኣምን ኣል-ቐውሚ ኣል-ዓረቢ ( Arab National Security) ይናገራሉ ... ኣሁን ግብጽ ቓዛን ለሃያ ኣመት ዘግታ እያለች ስለ ኣል-ኣምን ኣል-ቐውሚ ኣል-ዓረቢ ያነሳ ሰው የለም ። እኛ በቐጠር ... ኢትዮጵያ በራሳችን ላይ ያደረገችው ሒሳር ( መክበብ ) የለም ። በንጻሩ እኛን በከበባ ያገቡ ወደ ኣፍሪቃ ሄደው የኣፍሪቃ ( ከኣህጉር ) ደገፍ ሲጠይቁ ኢትዮጵያ የተቃወመቻቸው የመጀመርያ ኣገር ነበረች ... ሃዛ እል ሓሰል ( ይህ ነው የሆነው ) በስ ሃዛ ወድዕ ኣል-ዓረብ ( በቃ የኣረብ ሁኔታ ይሄ ነው )/ ሰፋ ያለ ትርጉሙ ፥ ምን ይደረግ ፡ እንደ ምታየው የኣረብ ጉዳይ ትርጉም-የሌሽና ኣሳዛኝ ነው !! /


Abe Abraham
Senior Member
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Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 17 Jun 2021, 16:00

እዚህ ኣቡ ጣሊብ እንደ ማንኛውም በየቀኑ ይሁን በየሳምንቱ ዓምዶች በመጻፍ የሚኖር ጋዜጠኛ ከራሱ የፈለፈለ ሃሳብ ነው ያስቀመጠው ። ጥቅሙ ምንድነው ? መልስ ፥ ግብጾች ቢሆንላቸውና ባይሆንላቸው እንዴት እንደሚያስቡ ለማወቅ ይረደሃል ። በሌላ ኣነጋገር ኣእምሮኣዊ ሁኔታቸው በዚህ ግዜ እንዴት እንዳለ ያመለክትለሃል ።

Egypt and the Ethiopian dam... From patience to deterrence

ሓሰን ኣቡ ጣሊብ


For the fourth time, Egypt has turned to the UN Security Council, warning that Ethiopia will take the second filling step unilaterally and without a binding legal agreement on the operation of the Great Dam. For the first time, nearly two years ago, the Security Council ended up authorizing the African Union to follow up on the negotiations of the three countries to reach a solution that satisfies them.

The ostensible idea behind the Security Council resolution was that regional organizations would be better off resolving the crises of their members peacefully. At the time, members of the UN Security Council did not consider Ethiopia to be the seat of the African Organization. The international decision was an affirmation of the council’s evasion of its responsibility according to the UN Charter, as well as being in favor of Addis Ababa’s position that rejects any role other than the role of the African Organization as a sponsor of negotiations with the two downstream countries, which managed to employ it as a headquarters country in previous years in order to waste time and complete the construction of the dam, and impose an order A reality that makes matters difficult for the two downstream countries, and makes the Nile completely subject to Ethiopian sovereignty.

In order to relieve themselves of embarrassment, Egypt and Sudan had no choice but to deal with negotiations under African auspices. Perhaps something new would happen and lead to a real breakthrough. Practically, after two years of negotiations under the auspices of the two presidency countries of the organization, first South Africa, then secondly the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Ethiopian position did not show any flexibility, and a year ago it ended with Addis Ababa doing the first filling without any agreement with the two downstream countries, and it is known how many losses it led.

The situation is great for Sudan ( the guy is massaging and seksing the Sudan ! Normally in the eyes of the Egyptians the Sudanese is the despised black man, Osman Al-Bawab በማስተናቅ የሚያዩት ዑስማን የህንጻ ጠባቂ ), in terms of the shortage of drinking water for more than 20 million Sudanese citizens, the confusion in the operation of the Roseires dam and the power cuts in large areas of the country.

This is the position that killed all the allegations insisted by Sudanese forces with a political and moral extension to the ousted Bashir regime, considering Ethiopia “the sister of my country,” and that its dam, originally built on Sudanese lands, is a source of goodness and cheap electricity, and helps to organize agricultural courses. Which was proven false and deceptive with the first sudden filling. Ethiopia still insists on the second filling unilaterally, despite the stumbling in the height of the central part.

The concern now agreed between Egypt and Sudan, and after the important transformations that took place in the two countries’ relations politically, militarily and economically in the past year, that it is not acceptable for Ethiopia to take any unilateral move regarding what is known as the second filling before agreeing with the two downstream countries on the basis of operating the dam in accordance with a binding legal framework Its signature and compliance with it are attested by reputable international powers.

The coordination currently taking place between Cairo and Khartoum is witnessing important shifts, not only in the general vision, but also in the details. Such as moving towards future countries in Africa, international powers, and international institutions, as well as actual preparation for any action that may be required by the national security considerations of both countries, whether with regard to the security of Sudan's eastern borders, or the water security of both countries. This was embodied in the military agreement between the two countries signed last March, and was clarified by the statement of the Sudanese Military Defense Council on June 6, and the statement issued by the meeting of the foreign and irrigation ministers of the two countries in Khartoum last Thursday.

The Egyptian moves towards a number of African countries of a security and military nature represent an important dimension of the Egyptian movement towards the countries of the continent as a whole, which reflects a keenness to form an African environment that understands the difficult measures Cairo may have to take to preserve its water rights, and to confront the Ethiopian propaganda that has been distorted for a while The Egyptian role in the continent has long, and its image as a colonial role that hates the development of the peoples of Africa and unjustly drains their water resources.

The question that arises in its head now, what is the benefit of going to the Security Council, after it was previously lazy about taking a position that was supposed to be taken to maintain regional security in an area vital to Africa and the world as a whole?

The circumstances surrounding all the Egyptian and Sudanese movements put the answer in two interrelated equations; The first is that the policy of strategic patience has become useless, and that waiting for Ethiopian flexibility is completely excluded in light of the prevailing Ethiopian convictions of the ability to impose a fait accompli without account, and that the Egyptian-Sudanese abandonment of sustainable water security is also completely excluded. The second equation is the need to transform into a kind of comprehensive strategic deterrence.

The shift to comprehensive strategic deterrence is a set of tight policies that are interconnected in several directions. Many meetings and letters to Arab and African leaders are part of the transformation of the scene. The meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Qatar, and the discussion of the Ethiopian dam file and its danger to Egypt and Sudan, is closely related to determining what could happen in the coming weeks.

The Egyptian-Saudi understandings that took place in the meeting between President El-Sisi and Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, in Sharm el-Sheikh four days ago, embodied the depth of the two countries’ relations and their mutual eagerness to advocate Arab rights without hesitation, and served to control the regional scene with wisdom.

The fourth message sent by Egypt to the UN Security Council is another step in the transformation of the scene, as it places the Council, especially its major countries, before its responsibilities to maintain international peace and security. And if the Council did and moved seriously and effectively contributed to the implementation of international treaties and the preservation of the water and life rights of the downstream countries, then it does well.

However, the first indicators do not suggest an expected positivity. Although the United States has moved towards the Horn of Africa, represented by appointing a veteran envoy, Jeffrey Feltman, to that region, the dam file occupies only a limited margin in the American movement, compared to the priority that governs the Biden administration’s vision and its center is to protect the Ethiopian state from collapse and fragmentation into rival ethnic states, and at the same time to calm Egypt and Sudan without offering them what is consistent with their rights and interests in survival and existence. Little by little, the interests of other powers such as Russia, China, France and Britain are mainly related to the competitions between them, and to support the African presence of each of them in the face of the other.

(The Terrorist Abu Talib is talking here about cyberattacks .....someone should report him to the police ! )

Strategic deterrence also includes disciplined military dimensions, with multiple levels and segments, and among all of them are theoretically envisaged measures to electronically disrupt the dam’s working mechanisms, and make it just a non-viable water or electrical construction. Each of these levels has implications for Africa and internationally. Which is also taken into account and the appropriate scenes for each of them. practically; Strategic deterrence goes beyond controlling the filling and operation of the dam, to thwarting Ethiopia's strategy to monopolize water and turn it into a weapon that destroys the lives of others.

Abe Abraham
Senior Member
Posts: 13186
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 18 Jun 2021, 15:31

ሳምራየ ሳምራ ! እራሴን ያመኛል ! ካፌኖል ይለኛል !!!
ሰዎች …ግብጽ ታማለች ካፌኖል ግዙላት ። ካልተገኘ ኣስፕሮና ፓናዶል !!

Egypt finally resorts to the Security Council, and Arab foreign ministers meet to discuss the “Ethiopian dam” and “Al-Qattan” meets Abi Ahmed suddenly.. What goes on behind the scenes? Does the move now work, or did it come after the ruin of Malta? A famous economist calls for canceling the agreement of principles, describing it as a “big sin”

Cairo - Mahmoud Al-Qaei

Egypt's resort to the Security Council to explain the developments of the Renaissance Dam sparked widespread controversy among the observers, who were divided into two groups: an optimistic team believes that the Egyptian step is decisive and is a prelude to a military solution that cures the bitterness.

Others see that all of these are mere propaganda because the matter has been decided, noting that the Security Council will not discuss the issue, and if it does discuss it, it is not within its power to take a binding decision, but rather an advisory opinion.

What did Al-Qattan do with Abi Ahmed?

The Ethiopian Prime Minister had received the Saudi Minister of African Affairs, Ahmed bin Abdulaziz Qattan, yesterday, Saturday.

According to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), during the reception, bilateral relations between the two countries were reviewed, and a number of issues of common interest were discussed.
Some began to rely on the Arab move, linking the visit of the Saudi Crown Prince to Egypt and his meeting with Al-Sisi two days ago, while others confirmed that the “Rafale” is the solution and there is no other solution.

Arab betrayal

In the same context, some attacked the Arab position, describing it as shameful after all that was said about Arab investments in Ethiopia.

Step too late

In the opinion of the economist Abdel-Khaleq Farouk, Egypt's recourse to the Security Council is a step that has been delayed at least four years.

Farouk continued: "Egypt is addressing the Security Council to inform it of the dangers of the Ethiopian dam to life in Egypt, and also a meeting of Arab foreign ministers to discuss the Ethiopian Dam Dam to provide a regional political umbrella to support the Egyptian and Sudanese position."

Farouk added that there is only one step left before direct action, which is the cancellation of the Great Sin Principles Agreement signed by Egypt and Sudan in 2015, and a new phase will begin after that to protect the Nile River from the Ethiopian criminal conspiracy and those behind them.

An idea. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

In the same context, journalist and writer Suleiman Gouda published an idea sent by Engineer Sherif Effat in a letter from him, and it is at the heart of the issue of the Renaissance Dam.

The idea is that we are talking all the time about a binding agreement with Addis Ababa on the issue of the dam.. an agreement that says in the clearest terms that Egypt has a historical share in the Nile water of 55 billion and a half billion cubic meters, and it is a share that is neither arguable nor negotiable!

This is true.. but it is more correct than it that this share is never enough for us, and that we need at least one hundred billion, because determining our share with this number was at a time when we were less than half of the current population.. Therefore, it is natural for the share to increase with the increase population!

It is natural for our share to double for two main reasons, the first of which is that the Nile River is an international river, meaning that the ownership of water in it is a joint ownership among the countries in which it flows, and that each of the countries located on it has the right to take from it as much as it needs. For the Ethiopians who take from it as much as they need.. The same is the case with Sudan, who drinks with us from its two shores!.. The second reason is that Ethiopia’s consumption of the Nile water at this moment is definitely more than what it was consuming when our share was determined by this figure!

And since its consumption has increased with the increase in its population... What applies to it applies to us here as a downstream country, and the same applies to Sudan as a corridor country!

The owner of the idea wishes the decision maker in the dam negotiations to adopt his idea, to put it on every table where there is talk about the dam, and not to give it up.

For his part, Gouda said that he imagines that every Egyptian has this idea, and it revolves within him, and is enthusiastic about it to the fullest extent, as he follows the population increases.
Judeh said that the Ethiopian side should understand that our historical share was determined in changed circumstances, and that these circumstances require obtaining a different share.. What Ethiopia accepts for itself is an increasing consumption of river water, there is no alternative for it to accept it for us and Sudan!

And he concluded: “If the Prime Minister of Ethiopia is talking about one hundred dams in the future, then we have to talk in parallel about one hundred billion in the same future, and we should not accept concession ! :lol: :lol: :lol:


The proud Abyssinian ( ኣል-ሓበሺ ኣል-ፈኹር ) June 13, 2021

We Abyssinians love peace and welcome peace, throughout our history we always feel that Arabs are our brothers in blood and not a single Ethiopian can claim otherwise. On the contrary, some of our Arab neighbors, Egypt and Sudan, are using this issue to instill division and hatred for generations to come. Our country suffered a lot from famine and drought in the eighties. Two million people died.. Three quarters of our people do not have clean water or electricity. Compare that with Egypt. The entire nation has food and development and its economy is much larger than our country. One lesson we have learned is that the only mission of the Arab League is to follow Egypt's lead and act like an extension of the Egyptian government, so any outcome of this meeting is a waste of time and has no bearing on our determination to feed and develop our poor people. The economy… We are heading towards this goal and nothing will stop us. How many meetings has the League of Arab States held since its inception... It was all just talk and conspiracy among themselves with all the knives in their hands to stab each other.... What a waste of time the world laughs at.

Abe Abraham
Senior Member
Posts: 13186
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 19 Jun 2021, 15:33

ግብጽ " ኢትዮጵያ ግትር ኣቋም ወስዳለች " ኢያለች ከመጀመርያ ራስዋ መደራደር እንደማትፈልግ ድሮ ይሁን ኣሁን ግልጽ ነው ። ባማርኛ ስለ " ሙሌት " ስንናገር በኣረብኛ " ኢምላእ " ትርጉሙ " ዲክቴሽን " ( እኔ ያልኩህን ጻፍ፡ ኣድርግ ) ነው ። ይህ ግብጽ ከኢትዮጵያ የምትጠይቀው በየጻፍኩልሽ ሰነድ መፈረም ኣለብሽ መሆኑን ለማብራራት ነው ።

የኣልጃዚራ ግብጻዊ ኣቅራቢ ፥ የህዳሴ ግድብ ጉዳይ ኣያያዝ/ኣስተዳደር እንዴት ታየዋለህ ? ኣቅጣጫው ትክክለኛ ነው ወይስ ኣይደለም ?

ጋዜጠኛ ( ጋሻ )
፥ በመጀመርያ በዚህ ጉዳይ - ሱዳን የሚጎዳ እያለ - ግብጽ ብቅድመ-ግንባርነት ተሰልፋ ተራዋ ስትጫወት ነበር ። ኣሁን ግን የምናየው ግብጽ ሳይሆን ሱዳን ብቻ ነው ። እዚ ኣንድ ነገር ኣለ እኔኔ የማይገባኝ ።

ወደ ቁም-ነገሩ ልንመለስ ኣሁን የህዳሴ ግድቡ ክዉን ሆነዋል ማለት ማንኛውም ሰው ልንመታው እንችላለን ወይም በኢትዮጵያ ተጽእኖ ልናደርግ ችሎታ ኣለን ሊለኝ ኣይችልም ። ግድቡ መምታት የሚታሰብ ኣይደለም ። በየውሃው ይዞታና ከሱ በተሳሰረው ሊክተል የሚችል ኣደጋ በግምት ኣግብቶ ብቻ ሳይሆን የግድቡ ኣሰራርና ጠንካራነቱ - ለምስራቱ የተጠቀሙት ስሚንቶና ኮንክሪት - በሚመታበት ግዜ ራሱ የውሃውን ኣፈሳስ ኣቅጣጭ ሊቀይር ስለሚችል ነው ። ( የግድቡ ሃይለኛው የኣየር መከላከያ ሲስተምን ጥሰህ በጣም ጠንካራ የሆነውን ኮንክርቱን መትተህ ለማፍረስ ካቻልክ ማለት ነው !! ) ኣየህ ፡ የግድቡን መምታን ባንዳንድ ሁኔታ ከጥቅማችን ጋር የሚጻረር ሊሆን ይችላል ።

ከዚ ባሻገር ኣንተ ከእስራኤል ጋር የሰላም ስምምነት ኣለህ ፡ ግድቡን የሚከላከል የሚሳይል ስርኣት የእስራኤል ነው ። ይህ እንዴት ይሆናል ? ኣንድ ግዜ ኢትዮጵያ ግድቡን እንዲሰራ የረዱት ኣገሮች በይፋ በመግለጫ ስታመሰግን ሳኡዲ ኣረብያና ኢማራት ጠቅሳ ነበር ...በዚ ጉዳይ እኛ የት ኣለን ?

እሺ ፡ እኛ የ 2015 " ኢዕላን ኣል-መባድእ - የግብጽን ( ታሪካዊ ) ድርሻ የማይጠቅስ ስምምነት ፈርመናል ፡ ኢትዮጵያ ሁል ግዜ " ከስምምነቱ ውጪ ያደረግኩት ነገር የለም " ትላለች ....እኔ የህዳሴ ግድብ " ኣምር ዋቕዕ " ( የተደመድመ ጉዳይ ) ነው የምለው ። ከየውስጥና የውጭ ጫና (distabilise the country from within using Ethiopian agents and by the co-operation of Sudan from the border) በኢትዮጵያ ማድረግ ቀርቶ እኔ ሌላ መፍትሄ ኣይታየኝም ። ጥያቄው እኛ በዚህ ኣቅጣጫ ( ህገ-ወጥ !!! ) እየሰራን ነው ወይ ?

ወደ የተባበሩት መንግስታትና ሌሎች የውጭ ድርጅቶች መሄድ ምንም ጥቅም የለውም ። ፍልስጤማውያን እዛ ሄደው ምን ኣገኙ ?

( ከዛ ለየት ባለ ) ኣንተ ስለ ታሕልያ (desalination/ጨው ጥረት ) ስትናገር ሳዑዲያ ዘዴው ተጠቅማ የምታጣራው ኣምስት ሺ ሚልያርድ ክዩቢክ ሚተር ኣይደርስም ። ኣራት ሺ ምናምን ነው ። የኛ የናይል ድርሻችን 55 ሚልያርድ ክዩቢክ ሚተር ሆኖ ከዛ ባደገ 70ና 80 የምናገኝበት ግዜም ነበር ። በኣለም ደረጃ ስናየው በታሕሊያ የሚገኘው ውሃ በድምር እኛ ከናይል ከምናገኘው ያነሰ ነው - 55 ኣይደርስም ። ስለዚ ታሕሊያ መፍትሄ ኣይደለም ።

እኛ በናይል " ሓቕ ታሪኺ " ( ታሪካዊ መብት ) እና " ሓቕ ረባኒ " ( ኣምላክ የሰጠን መብት ) ኣለን ። ( ኢትዮጵያሳ ? የታሪክ የተፈጥሮ የኣምላክና የፍትህ መብት የላትም ማለት ነው ወይ ? GET LOST !!! :lol: :lol: ) ኢትዮጵያ ትሁን ሌላ ሃይል ሊገባበት ያልነበረው ማለት ነው ።

ሙባረክና ሳዳት ይሉት እንደ ነበር " ላ መሳስ ቢሚያህ ኣል-ኒል! " ( የናይል ውሃ (ችን) መነካት የለበትም ! ) ድርሻችን በድርድር መግባት የለበትም ። (ትርጉሙ፥ ኣቋማችን ድርድር የለም የሚል ግትር ያለ መሆን ኣለበት!! )

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