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Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 20 Jun 2021, 11:32

https://www.fanabc.com/english/grand-mu ... t-on-gerd/
Grand Mufti condemns statement of Sheikh of Al-Azhar of Egypt on GERD



Addis Ababa, June 18, 2021 (FBC) – Head of the Ethiopian Islmaic Affairs Supreme Council, Grand Mufti Haji Omar Idris denounced the statement made by Sheikh Ahmed Al-Tayeb, Sheikh of Al-Azhar Al-Sharif of Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

The Grand Mufti said that the waters of the Nile stem from the heart of Ethiopia, noting that Ethiopia has the right to benefit from its natural resources without causing significant harm to the Nile Basin countries in general.

This came in a statement made by the Council to the media yesterday to refute the statement of Sheikh Al-Azhar on the GERD as the statement did not take into account the rights of the Ethiopian people.

The Head of the Supreme Council stressed that Ethiopia did not prevent Egypt and Sudan from benefiting from the Nile waters. Rather, he said, it demanded to utilize the river in an equitable manner, and this is pure justice.

The Grand Mufti said, the Sheikh of Al-Azhar should look at the truth and be aware of the resolution of Ethiopians to get rid of poverty and stand firm by the sound decisions of the Ethiopian government in this regard.

And we must not make mistakes, said the Mufti, “God helps the people of truth every time and place.”

Abe Abraham
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Posts: 9248
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 20 Jun 2021, 18:00

مع إبراهيم عيسى | تعليق عيسى على ازمه سد النهضة .. سمعنا كلامكم قبل كدا ورحنا فى داهيه

ከዚህ በፊት ንግግራችሁን ሰምተን በዳህያ ( ጥፋት ) ገባን ።




በግብጽ ኣሉ ከሚባሉ ብልጥ ጸሃፊዎችና የቲቪ መደብ ኣቅራቢዎች ኣንዱ ኢብራሂም ዒሳ ነው ። የታሪክ ምሁሩ ኢብራሂም ዒሳ ብህዳሴ ግድብ ኣንስቶ በቪድየዋ ምን ይላል ።

1_ከባልደረባየ ሆኜ እስካሁን ድረስ በተከታተልኩት የዓለም ጋዜጠኞችና ተማራማሪዎች ስለ የህዳሴ ግድብ ውዝግብ ሲናገሩ ኣትኩሮኣቸው ወደ ጉዳዩ ጦርነት የማንሳት ያለው ችሎታ ከመገምገም ይልቅ ግብጽን ወደዛ ኣቅጣጫ ለመግፋትና በስህተት ማግባት ያለመ ይመስላል ።

2_ ካነበብክዋቸው ኣርእስቶች ለምሳሌ ፥ " ኢትዮጵያዊት ጋዜጠኛ ለማ ከየጀርመን ድምጽ ስትናገር ' በየኮሎንያሊዝም ግዜ በተደረጉት ስምምነቶች ሳንገታ ልማታዊ ስራችን እናከናውናለን ። " ኣለች ።

3_ከፓሪስ " ኣፍሪካ ሪፖርት " ፥ ጦርነቱ ተቃርበዋል ወይ ? የኢትዮጵያ ኣየር ሃይልና የግብጽ ኣቅም ሲነጻጸር ምን ይመስላል ? ጦርነት ከተነሳ የቀይ-ባህር የመርከቦች እንቅስቃሴ ሊጎዳ ይችላል ። ጦርነቱ ከተነሳ " ሪጅዮናል " መልክ ሊይዝ ይችላል ። ኣንድ የወታደራዊ ጉዳይ ተማራማሪ ፈረንሳዊ ( ወታደር የነበረ ) የግብጽ የኣየር ሃይል ጠንካራ ቢሆንም ግድቡን ከሰማይ ኣጥቅቶ ሊጎዳውና ሊያወድመው ኣይችልም ( ቴክኒካል ችግሮች ኣሉ ) ። ለግብጽ የሚያዋጣ በመሬት ወታደር ልካ ግድቡን ማፍረስ ነው ።

4_እኔን ብትጠይቀኝ የግብጽ ህዝብን ውስጠ-ልብ ከመረመርክ - እንደሱ የሚባል ነገር ካለ - ግድቡ በቀረበ ጊዜ ወድሞ ( ለኢትዮጵያ ) ካሁን 25 ዓመት ቡኋላ እንገናኝ ማለት ነው ። ( ከ25 ዓመት ቡጓላ የወደመውን ግድብ ዳግም ለመገንባት ከቻልክ ማለት ነው ። ) ሆኖ ግን ህዝብ ምን ያውቃል ? ኣስፈላጊ እውቀት ሳይኖርህ እንዴት ትወስናለህ ?

5_ይሄ ጉዳይ ቀን በቀን የምናየውና የምናውቀው የኤኮኖሚና የመሳሰሉን ነገሮች ጉዳይ ኣይደለም ( ስለ የሃገሪቱ ወቅታዊ ጉዳይ ግልጽ ስለሆነ ዜጎች ዝም ብለው በሚደረገው ውይይት/ክርክር/ ንግግር ሊካፈሉ ይችላሉ ) ብዙ የተሰወሩና ጨለማ የሆኑ ነጥቦች ኣሉበት ። መንግስት ለጦርነት ከወሰነ ህዝቡ በመንግስቱ ጎን ሊቆም ይችላል ። መንግስት ግን የሚያውቀው ነገር ምን ነው ? በዲሞክራሲ በሚመሩ ኣገሮች መንግስት ለየፓርላማ የጸጥታ ኮሚቴ በከፊል መረጃዎች ያቀርባል ። እኛ ተገቢ መረጃዎች ኣለን እያልን በዓብድ ኣል-ናስር ሳዳትና ሙባረክ በስህተት ገብተናል ። ዓብድ ኣል-ናስር ሁሉ ነገር ኣስቤታለሁ ብሉ የሱዌስ ካናል ኩባንያ የህዝብ ንብረት ኣድርጎ ሱሉሳዊ ( የኢንግሊዝ ፈረንሳና እስራኤል ) ጥቃት እንዲሰነዘርብን ኣደረገ ። ሳዳት ሲገደል ኢስላሚስቶች ከሱ ጋር ተጣልተውና ተናድደው እንደ ነበሩ እያወቀ ሊገድሉት ቻሉ ። ሙባራክ ጥር 25 መጥቶ ከስልጣኑ እስከሚባረር ድረስ ሁሉ ነገር በቁጥጥር ስር ያለ መስሎት ነበር ። ኣሁን እኛ ተመሳሳይ ስህተት ማድረግ የለብንም ። ግድቡን ከመታን ኢትዮጵያ ምን እንደምታደርግ እንዴት እናውቃለን ( እንደ ድሮ ኣውቄኣለሁ ኣትበለኝ ! ሁሉ ጊዜ የማትጠብቀው ድብቅ ነገር ኣለ ! ) ? ጥቃታችን ለሱዳን ምን ኣደጋ ያደርስባታል ? ( በሃያል ጎርፍ ይሁን በሌላ ) ።

6_በየህዝብ ስሜት ጦርነት ልታነሳ ተገቢ ኣይደለም ። ህዝብ ብዙ የሚያውቀው ነገር የለም ። መንግስትም ከዚ በፊት በስህተት ኣገሪቱን በኪሳራ ስላስገባ ለሁሉ ነገር ኣስቤለታልሁ ሊል ኣይችልም ።

7_እኔ እንደ ተከታተልኩት የኣለም ታላላቅ ጋዜጠኞችና ተማራማሪዎች እስካሁን ድረስ - ብህዳሴ ግድብ ጉዳይ - የኢትዮጵያን ተረት ፡ የቪክቲም ተረት ፡ እንደ ተቀባይነት ያለው ሲወስዱት ቆይተዋል ። ምእራባውያን ከግብጽ ብህዮማን ራይትስና ሌሎች ጉዳዮች ተጣልተው ስላሉ ግብጽን የሚያጠቃ ሪፖርት ይቀበሉታል ። ኣሁን በመንግስት በኩል የውሃ ጉዳዩ ለዓለም ለማስረዳት ጥረት እየተደረገ ነው ። ( በዛ እንቀጥል !! )



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Abe Abraham
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Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 22 Jun 2021, 14:51





The Professor of Water and Land at Cairo University confirms that Egypt has records of Ethiopian officials confirming the conspiracy and bad faith..Experts continue to incite to end the nightmare of the Ethiopian dam by force immediately and confirm that it is the only option and beneficial confirms that the regime will not be able to survive for one day if Addis Ababa succeeds in controlling the water Nile.

Cairo – Mahmoud Al-Qaei

A number of patriotic Egyptians continued to call for an immediate end to what they called “the nightmare of the Ethiopian dam,” stressing that it is the only option, and there are options below it that will not cure the bitterness. ( Nafaa is playing roles with the Egyptian government. He is given space to say what he is saying to give the semblance that the governemnt is being put under great pressure. )

The vast majority asserted that it was inevitable to resort to force after the Ethiopian intransigence and arrogance had reached its height, and the Egyptian prestige was in jeopardy. :lol: :lol:

In the opinion of Dr. Hassan Nafaa , Professor of Political Science at Cairo University, any ruling regime in Egypt will not be able to protect its legitimacy or be able to stay in power for one day if Ethiopia succeeds in controlling the waters of the Nile River.

Draining lake Nasser

For his part, Dr. Nader Nour El-Din, Professor of Water and Land at Cairo University, said that one of the declared reasons for building the Ethiopian dam, which the Ethiopians declare in their seminars in some countries that they think are enemies of Egypt or take advantage of our temporary differences with them, is that the Ethiopian dam will cause the draining of Lake Nasser. And that the High Dam will be just a wall that is useless and will not generate electricity. ( Here the Egyptians are being selfish. Does it mean that Ethiopia under the principle " no one gets hurt " should be prepared to hurt itself and its electricity production for the sake of Egypt and Sudan ? In similar fashion should Ethiopia give priority to both Egypt and Sudan rather than its own people in times of draught ? The funny thing is that the Egyptians accuse Ethiopian of being selfsh and intransigent while the chraracterization fits them in the first place. )

Noureddine added that a small river such as the Blue Nile, with all its waters that do not exceed 49 billion cubic meters per year, could never fill two large lakes, one in Ethiopia and the other in Egypt, and therefore filling the lake of the upstream country means the emptying of the lake of the downstream country.
:lol: :lol:


Noureddine added that Ethiopia therefore unilaterally announces the quantities of water that it will store each year according to the progress in building the dam and not according to the agreement with its partners in the river, when the construction volume reached 72% last year, and this allows storing 4.9 billion m3 They stored this volume despite its uselessness and that it will evaporate during the year and there will be nothing left of it for the next year, as neither it generates electricity nor can it resist evaporation in the intense heat in Bani Shengul.

Nour El-Din said that Egypt is paying attention to this matter and has records of statements by Ethiopian officials in several countries, noting that the upcoming negotiations should focus on this Ethiopian stubbornness and the Ethiopians not being frank to their people by reducing the number of dam turbines to 13 instead of the previously announced 16, nor about The amount of electricity generated is much lower than what was announced for the Ethiopian people, indicating that there are possibilities of new reductions in the number of turbines after it was found that the Ethiopian dam was oversized.

Size, and that the volume of water storage is never commensurate with the small amounts of electricity generated, and that this matter was only to control the capabilities of matters in Egypt and Sudan in unjustified aggression and put them under conditions of water pressure, but at the same time it added financial, technical and administrative burdens on Ethiopia beyond its capacity. and its endurance.

Noureddine ended by asking: Will Ethiopia listen to the voice of reason and reduce its dam’s storage capacity to only 40 billion, and not think of harming the High Dam in Egypt :lol: as an aggressive Ethiopian goal, or harming Sudan’s dams :lol: ?

The Dam of devastation ( GERD !! )



For his part, Ambassador Farghali Taha said that the Ethiopian Foreign Minister went to Uganda carrying a message from his Prime Minister to Ugandan President Museveni, and the minister stated, “He discussed matters with the President, including bridging the Dam of Devastation and the border dispute with Sudan, and added that he asked Uganda to help in calling for a meeting Expanded to all Nile Basin countries to discuss Nile water problems.

Taha added that this issue is another dangerous and malicious move from Ethiopia ( A smart and necessary move from Ethiopia. That is why the Egyptians are extremely irritated ), to make our confrontation with all the Nile Basin countries and turn the problem into the problem of the whole Nile and not the problem of the Blue Nile and its dams, which is a purely Ethiopian problem with the downstream countries Egypt and Sudan, noting that Ethiopia also aims to embarrass Egypt. And Sudan, because it knows that they will not be able to refuse a mere meeting with the basin countries, and then impose a fait accompli on them during the meeting and involve the issue of the dam not for a solution, but to waste time and distract the effort and African and international thinking until the full filling of the dam and then achieving some solidarity with the basin countries that also have a complex that The entire Nile goes to Egypt and Sudan, although it originates from them, ignoring that they are not trying to benefit from it and that billions of cubic meters of rain fall on them, most of which are also untapped.

Taha called for caution and for Egypt and Sudan to ask in advance to agree on the agenda and to separate the issue of the Blue Nile and water quotas, :lol: and not to discuss it until after agreeing on a permanent and final solution to the issue of the dam first, stressing that in all cases it should not yield to any attempts to reduce Egypt and Sudan's shares, :lol: :lol: as they tried Before in the Indogo and Entebbe agreements.

Comment on the article by Habashi Fakhour ( Proud Abyssinian)

What are all these calls that emanate from these Egyptians who promote war? All they talk about is as if Egypt is the masters of all, and Ethiopia and other African countries must listen and bow to Egypt's commandments. ..this behavior is a reflection of the arrogance and disrespect of Africans.

I can assure you if the military commander in Egypt sends his army to our beloved country or bombs the dam... It will be the beginning of the end of this mighty army. We Ethiopians are poor and proud of a peace-loving nation with a multicultural fabric. But if a foreign invader tries to step into our country, the entire nation will fight them. The land is not like Sinai.. Our people are all armed with simple weapons and strong will and strive to defend the motherland.

I would like to make it clear to everyone to look around in Yemen, the mighty modern army of three countries, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with the support of the United States and the Zionist entity, could not even win a war with the poor group of Yemen, let alone our nation. …

We will continue to build our economic homeland and develop our country to reduce poverty and become the center of Africa’s renaissance….. Gone are the days of becoming vassals, we are in our country and we will change the lives of millions in the region and East Africa without harming our neighbors brothers… If they wage war, we will welcome it with an open chest 110 million of us and we will defend our blessed land and defeat the invaders,,, I can assure you that it will be a long war. And Egypt will never be what we know it now... All of you should think deeply before you go to war against a poor, peaceful country.



Abe Abraham
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Posts: 9248
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 24 Jun 2021, 13:12

Someone tell the arrogant and racist Egyptian Ahmed Abu Al-Ghait ( ኣሕመድ ኣቡ ኣል-ቐይጥ ) to stop lecturing Africans on international law and to do his job properly as Secretary General of the Arab League. What the hell is " We are not in a jungle. " ?



The Secretary-General of the League of Arab States on the Renaissance Dam: We are not in a jungle and Ethiopia must abide by international law.

Cairo- Agencies:

The Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, stressed that “Ethiopians must abide by the law and not take measures that harm the downstream countries” Egypt and Sudan. He said: “International rivers are governed by international law, and specific rules for dealing with upstream and downstream countries, and Ethiopia must abide By law, which is to respect the rights of every state bordering the Nile not to take measures that would harm the downstream states.”

He added, "The international community rejects the practices of the Ethiopian government towards the issue of the Renaissance Dam, so Ethiopia must respect the rights of Egypt and Sudan to water and international laws."

Aboul Gheit stressed that "the alternative to the failure of the Renaissance Dam negotiations would be a danger to international peace and security, as the international community will not accept the tense situation in the Horn of Africa."

He pointed to the need for "wide international intervention" in the negotiations of the "Renaissance Dam", stressing that the Arab League supports Egypt and Sudan's approach to the UN Security Council.


He said, "We are not in a jungle... The Nile River is governed by the rules of international law, and there is an absolute right for Egypt and Sudan to reject any unilateral measure that causes harm."


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Comment on the article :

The proud Abyssinian ( ኣል-ሓበሺ ኣል-ፈኹር ) :June 20, 2021

The head of the Arab League is the last person to advise on the Ethiopian dam. (Expressing ) his superiority complex and arrogance by implying that we in Ethiopia are a jungle people is shameful. It is purely racist behaviour. I can assure him that we will build the dam and work without having any effect on Egypt or Sudan despite his threats and fear.

My advice to him is to clean up the chaos in the Arab countries instead of describing us as the people of the jungle.... Long live peace and prosperity despite all racism.



Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 25 Jun 2021, 14:08



The effeminate,racist,rude and disrespectful Abu Al-Ghait (ኣቡ ኣል-ቐይጥ) has to be put in his place by our H.E. Mr. Moussa Faki Mahamat,Chairperson of the African Union Commission. Abu Al-Ghait, an Egyptian national and Secretary-General of the Arab League, is abusing his position to act as a representative of the Egyptian government and disrespecting Africans and an important member of the AU i.e Ethiopia.

The performance of the Ethiopian government on the GERD issue is excellent. The replies of H.E ambassador Dina Mufti are precies and frank. No opportunity should be left to remind the whole world that the Egyptians are lying and in reality want to arrogate the Nile to themselves as they have done in the past. Egyptian gangsterism and the attempts by Egypt to create a racial tension between Africans and Arabs should be rejected. The age of slavery and supremacism is gone forever. That is what the Egyptians and the Arabs should know.






Aboul Gheit: Ethiopia is a fragile country, and Abi Ahmed wants to play the role of "Rambo".


21/6/2021


CAIRO - The Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit( ኣሕመድ ኣቡ ኣል-ቐይጥ ), launched a severe attack on Ethiopia and its Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, against the background of the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry's rejection of the Arab League's decision on the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis, accusing it of siding with Egypt and Sudan.

In response to a question from the Egyptian journalist, who is close to the Egyptian authority, Ahmed Moussa( ኣሕመድ ሙሳ ) , about Ethiopia's daring against the Arab League, and the issuance of statements in which Addis Ababa called on the League to be silent; Aboul Gheit ( ኣቡ ኣል-ቐይጥ ) said - in statements to the "On My Responsibility" program on "Echo of the Country" channel ( - that the League will not remain silent over violations of international law, and will fully support Egypt and Sudan in the file of the Renaissance Dam. "

Fragile state

During the interview, which was broadcast on Sunday evening; The Secretary-General of the League of Arab States said that Ethiopia is "fragile", due to the spread of many incompatible ethnicities, and in his quest to gather this ethnicity in the current elections, Abi Ahmed and his government want to play the role of "Rambo" against the whole world.

Aboul Gheit also denounced Ethiopia's attempt to claim the existence of an Arab-African clash, in a failed attempt to put African countries in the face of the Arab League, noting that two-thirds of the citizens of the Arab world are Africans, and nine member states of the League are African states, pointing to the awareness of the members of the League of these attempts.

The League supports Egypt and Sudan

And the Arab League announced last Tuesday - after a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Qatar - the invitation of the UN Security Council to convene to discuss the dispute over Ethiopia's intention to start the second filling of the Renaissance Dam it is building on the Blue Nile.

The Arab countries called on Ethiopia to negotiate "in good faith and refrain from taking any unilateral measures that would harm the water interests of Egypt and Sudan." Aboul Gheit described the water security of Egypt and Sudan as an integral part of Arab national security.

The Arab League expressed deep concern over Ethiopia's announcement of its intention to start the second phase of filling the dam's reservoir in the rainy season this year without an agreement on filling and operating the dam.

Ethiopian rejection

For its part, Ethiopia rejected the position of the Arab League, describing it as unfair, and affirmed its refusal to internationalize and politicize the crisis, calling on Egypt and Sudan to return to negotiations instead of seeking to internationalize the file in regional and international forums.

The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its dissatisfaction with the Arab League's decision, and rejected - in a statement - the conditions set by the League's statement related to filling the dam's reservoir, accusing it of giving priority to the water security priorities of downstream countries without any consideration of the interests of the upstream countries.

The statement said that the Arab League missed the opportunity that was available to it to play a constructive role in the Renaissance Dam crisis, stressing at the same time that the second filling of the dam will take place on time and is not subject to discussion.

Last Wednesday, Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti said that his country rejects the League's interference in the dam file, adding that it is not the first time that the Arab League has sided with Egypt, and that the only way to resolve the dam crisis is direct dialogue between the three countries: Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt .

Egyptian reply

For its part, Egypt strongly objected to the statement of the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the decision of the Arab League Council on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and said that it lacked courtesy and diplomacy, and contained an unacceptable insult to the Arab League and its countries.

The statement of the Egyptian Foreign Ministry added that "the Ethiopian approach indicates an intention to exercise hegemony over the Nile River and to establish itself as a single beneficiary of its riches. This was manifested in Ethiopia's insistence on filling the Renaissance Dam unilaterally without reaching an agreement with the two downstream countries."

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry described Ethiopia’s behavior as “an attempt to hold the course of negotiations hostage to internal political considerations, which represents a material breach of the Declaration of Principles Agreement (signed between the three countries in 2015) and proves beyond any doubt Ethiopia’s bad faith and its lack of political will to reach a fair and balanced agreement on the dam. Renaissance".

Despite the Egyptian-Sudanese efforts to intensify political pressure on Addis Ababa, the latest of which was the meeting of Arab foreign ministers, Ethiopia insists that the second filling is not negotiable and will take place on time, while Egypt has said on more than one occasion that all options remain on the table regarding the crisis.

Source: Egyptian Media


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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 27 Jun 2021, 14:51



Nureddin Abda (ኑረዲን ዓብዳ ) did an excellent job in defending the truth. I will come back to him and David Deroche ( wise and fair-minded ). The once respectable Hassen Nafaa( ሓሰን ናፍዓ ) got some drubbing.

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 02 Jul 2021, 12:44


ዒሳም ሒጊ is talking as if Ethiopia is his whxoxre ! Withdrawing from Tigray, a useless piece of land with equally useless people, is excellent and justifiable. What is not justifiable and smart is Ethiopia withdrawing from Ethiopia - that is what the Americans are demanding.

So, the Ethiopian government and people should feel the sense of urgency. Ethiopia should mobilize and arm its people in particular the heroic fannos, millions of them.

The ceasefire should apply only to Tigray proper ( with the exclusion of Amhara Kilil lands previously confiscated by TPLF ) and the ETHIOPIAN ARMY together with FANNOS should attack and destroy any TPLF shiftas venturing into Amhara and Afar lands.

There is no reason to be afraid of Western pressure. The Ethiopian people and government should also feel the urgency to organize demonstrations in Addis Abeba to make to the Americans, British and others clear that the Ethopian people will not tolerate their arrogance and their presence in the Horn of Africa. If the Americans continue their escalation I am sure they will risk losing their base in Djibouti. You should make them fear you with your population strength of over 100,000,000 people. Be ready to pay heavy sacrifices to teach the enemy and forces of arrogance an unforgettable lesson.[/siz
e]


Essam Heggy : An unknown water future for Egypt after the Renaissance Dam


Expectations of catastrophic consequences for Egyptian water security due to the Ethiopian dam

The Egyptian astronomer, Essam Heggy, said: "Egypt will face an unknown water future, even if it overcomes the Renaissance Dam crisis, as it will pay a heavy price from its strategic stockpile of Lake Nasser and its economic resources, which will make it more vulnerable to any other water and environmental crises looming on the near horizon," stressing that " Science is the only solution to the growing water deficit crisis.

Hajji explained, in an exclusive interview with Arabi 21, that "in the scenario of the rapid filling of the Renaissance Dam, Egypt will use most of its strategic water reserves to bridge the water deficit, which means that if it is exposed to drought after 3 years, the repercussions will be catastrophic by all standards, because we then We will have lost our strategic water reserves."

He pointed out that "in the event that the crisis is not dealt with appropriately to fill the water deficit, estimated at 31 billion cubic meters per year, Egypt may lose up to 72% of its agricultural area, and unemployment rates may increase from 14% to 25%, and it will lose up to 72% of its agricultural area. Agricultural output in 3 years could reach $51 billion, and then the average income of the average citizen declines by 8%, and these are undoubtedly catastrophic matters, and we must not ignore them in any way.”

He refused to blame the January revolution for the Renaissance Dam crisis, saying: "The January revolution is not the cause of this or other crises, and if the claim is that Ethiopia made bad use of the revolution from 2011 until the summer of 2013, why did it not take advantage of the biggest and most dangerous crises that occurred after 3 July 2013 until now, and if this is true, why did the Egyptian regime not take advantage of the recent instability in Ethiopia, as it has exploited our state of turmoil, as it is said?

The text of the interview:

How did the idea of ​​the scientific research that you supervised on the water deficit in Egypt and the effects of the Renaissance Dam, which caused an uproar in Egypt, begin?

The idea started in 2017, when we developed a model to calculate the current and future water deficit in groundwater for all North African countries and the Arabian Peninsula in light of climate changes; We developed a model that simulates the amount of water used, the amount of water present, and the deficit that will occur in it over the next 35 years, and we divided it into 5 climate and economic scenarios based on population, and the research was published in 2018 in the journal Global Environmental Change, which is one of the most Marked scientific journals in environmental and water sciences.

In this research, we found that groundwater in the Arab world is threatened with disappearance within 150 to 200 years in North Africa, and 70 to 90 years in the Arabian Peninsula, and the research was widely circulated and guided, and then we said in 2019 that we should Using this model to understand Egypt’s water budget deficit in the presence of the Renaissance Dam, and indeed we took the model and developed it to calculate the total deficit of Egypt in the coming decades, and we added to it the deficit of the Renaissance Dam under all the scenarios announced and published in scientific sessions.

And last Thursday, the research was published in the prestigious British journal Environmental Research Letter, which specializes in urgent environmental issues. The research became the most read in this journal's research for the year 2021, and it ranked fifth in the history of research published in this journal.

Accordingly, this research did not come out of nowhere, and it had nothing to do with the consultative meeting of Arab foreign ministers that was held a few days ago in Qatar - as some people claim.

There are those who talked about funding this research.. Who is the party that funded it?


The research is funded by the Scientific Excellence Grant at the Water Center at the University of Southern California, and Cornell University participates in it, both of which are among the most American universities funding research, and it has absolutely nothing to do with any Arab or foreign party or country, and if we obtained funding from any country, we would be happy to announce that In all transparency, and this is one of the conditions of publication, and there is no Arab party interested in funding such research, because everyone is absolutely certain that the leadership in Egypt does not take fateful decisions based on the results and recommendations of such research or scientific studies, whether internal or external.

Unfortunately, some Arab countries are interested in funding influencers on social media and media in satellite channels in order to form public opinion, and they certainly do not care about funding research that only helpless researchers will read, and no one knows anything about their existence, and they have no influence. society or to make important decisions.

What are the most prominent results of this scientific research that you supervised?

The research calculates the water budget deficit in Egypt according to different scenarios after filling the Renaissance Dam, and we have calculated all the consumption of water resources in Egypt, whether in the agriculture, industry, tourism and all other sectors, depending on the published, documented and court figures, and we have calculated Egypt’s water income ( Nile River, groundwater, rain, water recycling, etc.).

We concluded that the current deficit is equivalent to 20 billion cubic meters, which will be added to the average deficit that will be caused by the Renaissance Dam, then the total will be about 31 billion cubic meters on average, and when this deficit is translated into the agricultural irrigation sector, this will cause a deficit in irrigation Approximately 72% of the current area if the deficit is not compensated, within the scenario of rapid filling, which is the filling of the dam within 3 years, which is the scenario that is happening now, as this water deficit will certainly lead to large losses in the agricultural area, and we are moving daily towards this The worst-case scenario our research portends.

Why did your research not talk about the possibility of Egypt succeeding in facing this expected water deficit?

Because it is necessary to calculate the size of losses in light of the continuing increase in the internal water deficit and the presence of the Renaissance Dam. As the research showed that this scenario can be avoided by taking advantage of the water behind the High Dam in order to compensate for the loss of that water, however, in the scenario of rapid filling, Egypt will use most of its strategic water reserves to fill this deficit, which means that if exposed Egypt to drought after 3 years, the repercussions will be catastrophic by all standards. Because by then we would have lost our strategic stock.

It is also necessary to calculate the percentage of losses in this way in order to know the economic impact of the water deficit file, because many may not see this file as an important priority if it does not have a clear economic impact. We also have to take this worst-case scenario of not being able to bridge this deficit in the event of political fluctuations or the inability to activate technical solutions, and therefore the possibility of the worst-case scenario exists.

In the event that the increasing water deficit is not dealt with appropriately, Egypt may lose up to 72% of its agricultural area, unemployment rates may increase from 14% to 25%, and agricultural output will lose within 3 years up to 51 billion dollars, and from Then the average income of the average citizen drops by 8%, and these are undoubtedly catastrophic matters, and we must not ignore them in any way, and by the way, I am the person who most hope these results are incorrect, but, there is a huge difference between wishful thinking and scientific thinking.


How did you receive the attack of some supporters of the Egyptian regime on your scientific research?

My response to those who chose the path of treachery and denial, minimizing the seriousness of the dimensions of the issue, and deducting small parts of the research to deny the general meaning (such as do not approach prayer), instead of a full and careful reading of the research, criticism through discussion, and the exchange of experiences, is that I welcome all criticism For our research paper, and I also welcome the publication of any research paper that responds negatively to our results, and I will publish it in my account on the communication sites, and the right to reply is in the journal.

The scientific journal uses the Double Blind Review system, which leaves no room for any bias, and all data used in the research is available on the final publication page for those who wish to re-audit.

The research is concerned with calculating Egypt’s water budget deficit due to the different filling scenarios of the Renaissance Dam and its economic effects in the event that the deficit is not addressed, in order to limit the size of the losses, present the effectiveness of the proposed solutions, and clarify that it does not include the study of other damages such as environmental damage, collapse and others, which are outside the scope of the research

As for the absence of an agreement, I think that Egypt will face an unknown water future, even if it overcomes the Renaissance Dam crisis. As it will pay a heavy price from its strategic stockpile of Lake Nasser and its economic resources, which will make it more vulnerable to any other water and environmental crises that loom, unfortunately, on the near horizon.

I believe that the intervention of international bodies such as the UN Security Council, the White House, the European and African Unions, and the military exercises in Sudan, are not to break the state of boredom, but are evidence that there is a real crisis that lies in the blatant assault on the Nile River. Our role in research is not to amplify or minimize the crisis, but rather to try to determine its size based on the published data.

The research is a joint effort and the product of many discussions and work for 18 months, and any positive contribution it makes is shared with my fellow researchers, and if there is anything wrong, it is my personal responsibility.

When will the Egyptians feel the results of your research and the water deficit in light of Ethiopia's second filling of the Renaissance Dam?

It is assumed that Egypt will have a water reserve that it can rely on during the period of filling the Renaissance Dam, and I think that this stock is difficult to continue for more than 3 years if it is filled as soon as possible, and this is the worst scenario and unless there is an agreement between the three countries, and we must Monitoring the level of the water level in Lake Nasser behind the High Dam as an indicator of the general water situation, and it is now difficult to predict how fragile the situation will be after consuming all the water reserves.

And what are the solutions that you propose to face this potential "catastrophic" crisis?

I believe that the water stock behind the High Dam should be used, and that there should be partial use of groundwater, the development of canals and irrigation methods, the selection of agricultural crops that do not consume much water, and the prevention of crops that consume a lot of water. There will be a popular awareness that water conservation is the task of everyone, not just the state, by stopping the waste.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
The crisis is not only water, but is primarily a food crisis. Because we may lose a large agricultural area, and this is why we suggested that Egypt and Ethiopia agree that the area of ​​​​the agricultural area that Egypt will not be able to compensate due to the water deficit during the filling period is calculated, and then Ethiopia leases this same agricultural area to Egypt in the fertile Ethiopian lands for a long time, with a contract It has privileges to compensate Egypt for the losses that may occur in the abundance of food, and thus Ethiopia will benefit from developing its infrastructure for agricultural land, and Egypt will benefit from compensating the lost food production.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

What about the desalination option that the Egyptian state has already resorted to?

Seawater desalination plants will not fill the water deficit estimated at 31 billion cubic meters per year, and it is difficult for them to have a quick positive impact in this crisis.

Some believe that the military option has become the last card in Egypt's hands to deal with the Renaissance Dam crisis.. What is your comment?

The crisis cannot be addressed by a larger and more dangerous crisis, and I do not think that Egypt is at war with Ethiopia, but rather that the two countries are in a joint war against hunger, thirst and poverty that threatens them all. It is very unfortunate that some people put forward this option in dealing with environmental issues, and that we demand “blood for water.” This means that science is long overdue in having a voice in this dispute, and we see the result of that today. To all this unreasonable hustle and bustle.

President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi blamed the January revolution for the Renaissance Dam crisis. Do you agree with him on that?

I do not see that the January revolution is the cause of this crisis or even other crises, and if the claim is that Ethiopia made bad use of the revolution from 2011 until the summer of 2013, why did it not take advantage of the biggest and most dangerous crises that occurred after July 3, 2013 until now? And if this is true, why did the Egyptian regime not take advantage of the recent instability in Ethiopia, as it has exploited our state of turmoil, as it is said? Nobody is stalking us, we are the ones fighting ourselves, we need to stop justifying our mistakes and blaming others.

In your opinion, who is responsible for the expected water deficit in Egypt?

The large increase in the population of the Nile River Basin in general, and the capital thirsty for quick profit from the harmful investment of the Nile River, and I do not exclude any of the Nile Basin countries that all attract foreign investments at the expense of the environmental balance of the Nile River, which leads to dangerous environmental risks in the future, as We saw investments in the Amazon River Basin, after the tropical forests were razed until the government of Brazil and many other governments intervened to stop what was happening.

Investing in cheap energy generation at the expense of the Nile River environment is very dangerous. Major dams such as the High Dam and the Renaissance Dam have negative effects on the Nile River, and energy sources could have been used through other alternatives without resorting to these controversial dams; The High Dam used to produce 100% of Egypt’s energy, while today it produces less than 10%. In addition, it caused the erosion of the delta and the erosion of beaches, and the environmental damage itself may be caused by the Renaissance Dam and must be studied, and therefore, everyone will pay the price of tampering with the Nile River, and the lack of attention With scientific studies, and all we advocate is to study the effects of projects before they are implemented.

What is your interpretation of some countries' support for the Renaissance Dam?


Since it is a source of cheap energy and an opportunity for agricultural investments for many countries that do not have suitable agricultural areas or climate, the dam will be a real opportunity for them to achieve energy sufficiency and food security, and therefore they invest and support dam projects at the headwaters of the Nile, regardless of any other considerations .

And how do you generally view the effects of the major dams on the Nile River Basin in the future?

These dams are not transparent, and they will have negative repercussions that need accurate scientific studies and research to determine their effects. Unfortunately I say here; The water studies centers in the Nile Basin countries are among the poorest scientific institutions in the world, and everything in them makes them almost unable to provide any solutions to the crises facing them.

Simply put, we are now trying to solve a crisis that we do not understand all of its nature and dimensions in the short or long term, and we are discussing decisions that may reach the level of war in a problem that can be resolved with careful studies. Unfortunately, we in the Arab and African countries have a very bad history of managing conflicts over resources, which makes the Renaissance Dam crisis the tip of the iceberg. Due to the long decades of neglect of environmental and water sciences, and the lack of funding for specialized research centers.

Is Egypt able to get out of the Renaissance Dam crisis in light of the failure of all diplomatic solutions so far?

Getting out of the crisis requires the need to understand its nature and then deal with it in a scientific and realistic way away from arrogance and national slogans, and this is what we hope, and we believe that publishing our research - or others - is in order to contribute to the scientific efforts related to solving that crisis that has no way out other than consensus based on Scientific facts, while avoiding nationalistic tendencies. I assure that science is the only solution to confront the growing water deficit crisis in Egypt.




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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 04 Jul 2021, 17:10

Days before the United Nations Security Council meeting to consider the file of the Renaissance Dam, Council President Nicolas de Riviere said that the Council does not have much it can do other than bring the parties together to express their concerns, and then encourage them to return to negotiations to reach a solution.



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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 04 Jul 2021, 18:02

All those interested in the current developments in our region, politcians and ordinary citizens of the HOA, should study the brilliant analysis below.

With solidarity and popular consciousness we can defeat evil men like Feltman and Anthony Blinken, who are following the dangerous path of racial superiority, to support the Egyptians and killl the Africans.

The HOA will be the burial ground for traitors and arrogant white supremacist agents of the CIA and MI16 dressed up as WFP workers.



nemozen.semret.org

Pay any price, bear any burden


There is so much to say about the tragedy currently unfolding in Tigray, so much propaganda, so many paranoid conspiracy theories on all sides in the conflict, and this being Africa, such low quality media coverage... If you don't know much about it, don't get Gell-Man amnesia and start with a random news article. Instead, the best place to start is probably the Wikipedia pages on the war, the timeline, and the start (check the citations if anything seems biased!) But my assumption is that you have already done all of that.

My focus here is just the US foreign policy aspect. What is going on in Washington, how do we explain US government actions vis-à-vis Ethiopia? Is it "responsibility to protect" or is it "neocolonialism"? Is it all part of a broader strategy related to China or is it related to Egypt? I have not seen anyone answer this adequately, so this is my humble attempt to make sense of it.

Throughout this post I try to remember three principles. Occam's razor: The simplest explanation is usually the best one. Hanlon's razor: never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity. Third, every complex problem has a simple neat explanation which is wrong, so we won't oversimplify.

Let me explain where the question arises. First let's take a snapshot -- the very eventful week of May 23, 2021:

May 23: the US State Dept imposed imposed visa restrictions on Ethiopian government officials, which had been rumoured a couple of days earlier.

May 24 Blinken spoke to the UAE foreign minister. The same day, the UAE pulled out of Ethiopia-Sudan dispute mediation.

May 26 Blinken met with Al-Sisi

May 26 USAID said in a press release and in a US Senate hearing on May 27, that a "USAID partner" had been killed by "Ethiopian and Eritrean" and that the killing was " clearly intentional". A few things stood out:

I've tried but can't find the name of the partner organization. It's not mentioned in the press release, or in the statements to congress the next day, or in any press interview. Why would it be secret?

In congress, USAID's Sarah Charles said it happened in April. But for some reason, USAID did not speak bout the murder for a month. Here's a CNN story where "a top USAID official working on the ground in Tigray" talks about the situation with partners on April 30, and does not mention the murder.
'
the press release says the killing was by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops. As described by Ms Charles, it was not in the heat of the battle. And she also says "and". It would be understandable if they said "or". The "and" means they know it's both. It seems strange that both armies would simultaneously shoot one unarmed person, especially given that most reports have them in different territories, and there was no battle going on.

May 27 In Senate testimony, Sarah Charles said that it was critical the US be allowed to bring in "right kind of people" and "right kind of equipment" to Ethiopia, but that some people were denied visas. Which raises the question, why would the Ethiopian government deny some visas but not all? WFP, World Vision and CARE don't seem to have visa problems. The government says it not only grants access but also provides security to aid workers when they go in areas where fighting is still going on. And adds that it has intercepted weapons and ammunition in food aid trucks, so checking the trucks is necessary. The subtext here is obvious. It is not a secret that USAID sometimes has secret programs and after all, as it's current head Samantha Powers said in her confirmation hearing, USAID is a national security agency. So a bit of disagreement on the "right kind of people" should be expected and the USAID reaction seems a little disingenuous.

Then there's the election. Despite all the flaws, the Ethiopian federal elections on June 21st are objectively an improvement over the previous ones. The flaws of course include the fact that two major parties OFC and OLF boycotted. And that the election has been delayed in some regions, including Tigray, which together represent almost 20% of the seats. On the positive side, the independence of the judiciary, independence of the election board, number of parties participating nationwide, number of voters are all better than ever (admittedly a very low bar). Yet over the last few weeks, the US statements started sounding very negative about it. It started with "deeply concerned" on May 27, to being "gravely concerned" on June 11. They also keep talking about "post-election dialogue" before the election, which sounds a lot like encouraging people in advance to not respect the outcome. All we hear from the US state department is glass half-empty rhetoric, and almost constant predictions of violence. Wouldn't it be strange if, while doctors are working hard to deliver a baby, a "friend" just kept repeating over and over that they are deeply concerned about the complications, and that the family should be prepared for a funeral?

Now zoom out and consider the think tanks and media figures that form the bench of the foreign policy establishment. We have ex-CIA people like Cameron Hudson at the Atlantic Council and Judd Devermont at the Center for Strategic & International studies, consistently pushing the most pessimistic narratives about the election. We have Michael Rubin from the American Enterprise Institute, ex-Pentagon neocon who worked on the invasion and occupation of Iraq, writing extremely negative articles about Ethiopia predicting trouble with Kenya and Somalia, and even predicting the break up of the country. If we look at the NY Times, the chief Africa guy Declan Walsh seems to be on a campaign to rewrite the history of how the war started: he wrote 4 long articles on it, without once mentioning the actual event that started the war, namely the Nov 4 attacks, and each time stating the opposite of what happened -- that the first attack was by the government rather than TPLF. (His most recent article seems to deliberately change the date of a conversation between Abiy and Coons to support that reversal). This is really bizarre and reminds me of the scandal of the WMD stories leading up to the Iraq war.

If you know anything about US-Ethiopia relations, regardless of your views, it should be obvious that something is going on. It almost feels like a new product launch. The Biden administration and the broader foreign policy establishment in the US seem to be executing a policy which views the current Ethiopian government as an adversary. Most importantly, there is a clear push for "intervention". What is the thinking behind it? Let's consider some hypotheses:

1. R2P: Our null hypothesis is to take it at face value. The US actions simply reflect "the international community's responsibility to protect" and should be welcomed. No doubt that this motivation is true for many of the individuals involved, so I will give this some weight, but overall, the pattern of actions listed above refutes this as the only explanation. Why would they go to such lengths to not acknowledge the cause of the war for instance?

2. Scorpion: the opposite hypothesis is that the US and Ethiopia are like the scorpion and the frog in the fable, that "they" just want to harm Ethiopia period, because it is in their nature as an evil empire. We can simply dismiss this hypothesis. And throw pure racism in this bucket too. Yes of course racism is a factor at various levels, especially the subtle racism of condescending "experts", but it is just silly to think that is the main force driving the policy.

3. Puppets: This hypothesis is that the TPLF is successfully manipulating "the west" using money and propaganda. It's true that many journalists, crisis experts and activists on social media probably serve TPLF. Some may be paid agents, and some may be "useful idiots". But the idea that people at the highest levels of power in Washington are unwitting puppets of TPLF seems implausible. How about the idea that they are consciously doing it? Indeed much has been made of Susan Rice's history with TPLF, or Tedros Adhanom's connections etc. Relationships matter a great deal of course, like Chalabi for Iraq, but it seems like a stretch to say these personal relationships are the main reason for the overall policy.

4. China peril: maybe it is just part of the geopolitical chess game with China. Ok that seems plausible on the surface, China has been very investing in Ethiopia, way more than the US. And containing a "surging China in Africa" definitely fits the bill as something big enough to drive policy in Washington. But on deeper analysis... It doesn't explain our situation. Over the last 3 years with the current government, the trend in Ethiopia is slightly leaning more towards the West than before, including famously in the telecom sector. So "growing fear of China" does not make sense as an explanation for US interventionism in Ethiopia at this time. Ditto for "fear of Russia".

5. Neocolonialist resource grab: this hypothesis is that "The West" has a strategy to exploit resources in the region in the long run, which requires a pliant government, which it had until three years ago with TPLF, but the current government is not, so they want to destabilize and ultimately replace it. Given the last 150 years of African history, this definitely deserves consideration. But in this case that doesn't really make sense as a root cause. Ethiopia is not a very good place for pure extractive exploitation... Not much oil and gas etc. What there is is a lot of water, which is indeed very valuable. But even if you think of water converted to electricity, or water converted to food through irrigation, so what? It's not like the US or Europe need to take food or electricity from Ethiopia, so that doesn't explain it.

6. Oak: But of course water is the key and it brings us to our final hypothesis, which is the Egyptian angle. It is no coincidence that all of this strange stuff is overlapping with GERD. Fundamentally, GERD itself is actually not harmful to Egypt, and there is a reasonable way to share the Nile long term - the Cooperative Framework Agreement. But politically, GERD is a threat to the Al Sisi regime right now. The military government in Egypt lives in constant fear of the Muslim brotherhood, fear of a new iteration of the Arab Spring of 2011, etc. The exaggerated almost caricatural "strongman" image Al Sisi cultivates is because he needs to project strength.

That's how he got there in 2013, it is in the nature of his power. The moment he shows weakness, he's toast. Like the oak tree in the fable, if he bends he breaks. And nothing makes him look weaker than Ethiopia going ahead with GERD despite his intransigence. Egypt will be fine but the current Egyptian government is at risk, and the best way to minimize that risk is to destabilize Ethiopia enough that GERD is stopped or at least delayed until it can be done in a "pliant" way that makes Al Sisi look "strong" domestically in Egypt.

But why does the US care about this oak tree regime more than peace in the horn of Africa? Well the oak is a necessary part of the regional axis with Saudi Arabia, and UAE. If Egypt is run by the Muslim brotherhood or a secular civilian government, or anything other than a military dictator, it may no longer be a reliable ally of Saudi Arabia and opponent of Iran. And this is definitely the type of thing that could cause neo-cons, and the liberal hawks and all the other interventionists to coalesce.

So it seems plausible that there is a faction within the Biden administration and the broader "establishment" that believes in trying to weaken Ethiopia to help Al Sisi as part of the the overall strategy in the Middle East. It explains the "launch" events of the week of May 23, it fits Feltman going to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to discuss GERD.

It fits with the US policy in Yemen. And it is similar to the convoluted logic on Syria that you see from all the "serious people". It is of course not wise to attach yourself to a doomed oak and it's not like they don't know it. Listen to this interview with Ben Rhodes who was in the white house during the Egyptian coup of 2013. But a policy in an organization as complex as this is not like a logical thought in a single brain, it's the outcome of many competing interests. If enough factions want something, it can happen even if their reasons are contradictory. A great explanation of this is in an interview of Al Gore in 2006 which really struck me at the time. Skip ahead to 27:20 where he says "the decision to invade Iraq was the worst strategic mistake in American history" and goes on to very clearly explain the "perfect storm" of four policy forces that led to it. It is really one of the most remarkably clear segments I've ever heard on recent US foreign policy.

And as in the case of Iraq in 2001-2003, here in 2021 with Ethiopia, it's not one thing, I would say US interventionism is driven by

60% stability of the Al-Sisi regime,
20% fear of China,
15% R2P
5% pro-TPLF feelings

For now this seems like a powerful mix, and the interventionists have the upper hand in the Biden administration. They will "pay any price, bear any burden" to pursue these deeply flawed goals. As long as the price is paid and the burden is born by others of course. That's the big picture. Not very glorious. Just the same type of mess that in the past has led to the US supporting military coups overthrowing democracy when the "wrong" party wins elections like in Egypt, talking about humanitarianism while favoring war like in Yemen, "accidentally" arming Al Nusra Front (aka Al.Qaeda) in Syria, lying about motives and bringing perpetual war like in Iraq etc. I'm sure Samantha Powers and Susan Rice try to rationalize that they are the good guys, the ends justify the means, mistakes are made etc. But they have been staring into the abyss for too long, the abyss stared back at them and sucked them in.

The best hope is for the interventionists to be slowed by the weight of their past disasters and blocked by other factions in the US. American interventionism has been failing a lot for a long time. The Iraq invasion gave birth to Al Qaeda in Iraq, then ISIS. They made Iran, which they want above all to contain, stronger than ever in Iraq. Assad won in Syria. Even Libya, despite Egypt the supposed big force of the Arab world being right next door, is a dismal failure. In Yemen $100B and five years of bombing, the Houthis are still there. In Afghanistan, after 20 years and $2T US intervention, Al Qaeda moved and the Taliban won. More important than the failure to achieve US goals, the incalculable damage to the people in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen is impossible to ignore and the strategic blow-back keeps getting worse. So despite the strong interventionist cabal in the Biden administration, it's not clear they can beat the "isolationists", some evangelical Christians like Inhofe that are pro-Ethiopia, maybe even some "anti-imperialists" from the left, and other factions in the administration and congress.

An additional weakness of the interventionists, which may seem paradoxical, is that they don't pay the price of their mistakes personally. No matter how wrong their predictions and disastrous their policies, the same people keep shuffling in and out of think tanks and the Pentagon and the state department, progressing their careers, with no evolutionary pressure, no natural selection. So in effect, neo-cons and liberal hawks and Clintonites and Cheneyites in the foreign policy establishment have been in-breeding for so long their ideas are getting weaker, and their failures are getting more expensive. Samantha Powers and Susan Rice are like inbred descendants of Henry Kissinger. Michael Rubin is like Paul Wolfowitz's mini-me. So one possibility is that it all just fizzles out in incompetence and they end up doing nothing significant in Ethiopia.

There are also forces outside the US at play. GERD is kind of a pan-African rallying point. Practically six Nile Basin countries are already aligned with Ethiopia on this issue. Another key variable appears to be the UAE. They are usually aligned with Saudi Arabia and Egypt. But, they have had a good relationship with Eritrea and Ethiopia, helped with the peace treaty between the two governments, offered to mediate with Sudan (until suddenly backing off mentioned above). Qatar is famously not aligned with Saudis so a possible balancing force. Turkey is a other big source of investment in Ethiopia and is a potential stabilizing force and of course China is as usual against US interventionism. Finally, there's the fact that no matter how many times they pooh-pooh Abiy's Nobel peace prize, whatever his flaws, they can't make him look like a Saddam, Gaddafi or Assad because he isn't. And the election will make that even clearer.



.

Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 05 Jul 2021, 16:30

It is interesting. Enjoy reading and learning my dear friends!! Compare what you read with current events regarding The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

British documents: Abdel Nasser underestimated Ethiopia's ability to seize the waters of the Nile.


Abdel Nasser believed that the Ethiopian state would disintegrate when Emperor Haile Selassie dies - Getty
British documents revealed that the late Egyptian leader, Gamal Abdel Nasser, underestimated the Ethiopians' ability to seize the waters of the Nile.

The documents reveal, according to a BBC report, that British embassy officials in Cairo discussed the issue of Ethiopian-Egyptian relations with Egyptian officials during 1960 and 1961.

On December 20, 1961, a British embassy diplomat met in Cairo with Mohamed Faeq, President Nasser's advisor for African affairs. At this meeting, the issue of Ethiopia's ability to withhold water from Egypt was discussed.

According to a report on the meeting, the British diplomat said that he was "bewildered by his realization that the government of the United Arab Republic (Egypt) seems very willing to provoke the Ethiopians."

During the discussion, Faeq said, “I would like to point out that the technical studies conducted in Cairo showed that even if the Ethiopians had unlimited money, they could not reserve more than 1 in 13 of the waters of the Blue Nile,” which is the source of more than 80 in percent of the Nile water flowing into Egypt.

"Once the Aswan High Dam reservoir is filled, this matter will not matter," Faeq added.

At that time, it was reported that Ethiopia was planning to divert the waters of the Blue Nile, which originates from Lake Tana in Ethiopia, away from the course of the Nile Valley.

Faeq told the British diplomat: "The Egyptians believe that Ethiopia's diversion of the Blue Nile waters is not possible." He added, "In any case, the Ethiopians will never get enough money to implement more than a small part of the technically feasible schemes...and the Egyptians and Sudanese have nothing to fear about this matter."

According to the British document, the Egyptian official added that Egypt's policy towards Ethiopia is "in general, not unfriendly."

The diplomat said he did not know if Faeq's statement was based on strong evidence.

From the discussion, the British diplomat concluded that Faeq's proposal "reinforced his opinion that the Egyptians do not care about the Ethiopians."

The British diplomat’s report from Cairo indicated that the Egyptians’ future outlook is based on “the belief that the Ethiopian state is likely to disintegrate, when the emperor (Hailey Selassie) dies.

The report warned of very serious consequences for such a perception, saying that "if the Egyptians were wrong, that would be their end."

Based on this perception, the British Foreign Office expected that Egypt would face an unprecedented problem with the Ethiopians because of the water.

After fifty years of British warning, the Ethiopians were able to secure about $5 billion to finance the construction of the Renaissance Dam, which Egypt has strong concerns that it will reduce its current share of water of 55.5 billion cubic meters annually.

Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 05 Jul 2021, 19:57


An official reveals the demands of Saudi Arabia and 4 Arab countries from the Security Council meeting regarding the “Renaissance Dam”




Riyadh - Agencies: The permanent representative of the Arab League to the United Nations, Ambassador Maged Abdel-Fattah, confirmed that the Arab group does not request sanctions against Ethiopia or send peacekeeping forces standing on the Renaissance Dam.

He said in a telephone interview on the “TeN” channel, that “the Arab committee, consisting of 5 parties, namely Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco, Iraq and the Arab League, will meet the members of the Security Council and will explain the dimensions and background of the Renaissance Dam file to them,” pointing out that “meetings were held with the ambassadors of China and Russia.”

He added, "The committee is scheduled to hold meetings with the ambassadors of Africa, America, France, India, Mexico and Vietnam, starting next Tuesday, to explain to them the dimensions of the file and to identify their concerns and calm them."

He explained that the meetings aimed at obtaining the decision on the “Renaissance Dam” with the required 9 votes to pass it, denying that there is a tendency for the permanent member states to use the veto.

Abdel-Fattah stressed that “the Arab countries recognize Ethiopia’s right to development, but without causing serious harm that affects the water cuts in the downstream countries,” noting that “the matter turns the file into a human rights issue.”

He stated that the water interruption means affecting agriculture, food security and health habits in the downstream countries, and turns the file from a development issue to an issue that affects human rights, stressing the need to reach a binding agreement on filling and operation to know the timings of opening and closing the dam and the amount of water.



Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 06 Jul 2021, 15:19

Mohamed Abdel Rahman, the Egyptian pressure on Sudan is greater than the Ethiopian pressure on it.






Dr Mohammed Abd Al-Rahman when asked why the Sudan had changed its balanced approach on the issue of the GERD and is now squarely on the Egyptian side :

1_Egypt carries a big stick and is more threatening to Sudan than Ethiopia.

2_Experts, observers and others have found out that the Sudan has a lot to gain from GERD, of course beside Ethiopia, on matters of regulating the flow of the Nile and getting electricity from Ethiopia. The benefits are more than clear.

3_For a long time the Egyptians have always had offices in the Sudan to control how much water from the Nile flows into the Sudan. ( Egypt has undue influence on the Sudan. )

That being the case one wonders why is Yasser Abbas, the irrigation guy of Sudan, behaving in a strange way with regard to the Renaiassance Dam and equitable water sharing agreement between countries of the Nile basin ?

The problem of the Sudan is with Egypt not Ethipia. Egypt is now taking a large portion of the water allocated to Sudan based on the bilateral agreement of 1959 signed between the two countries. If Sudan is incapable of using its present water share it should shut up or direct its complaints to Egypt. Sudan doesn't have any right to complain against Ethiopia either within the African forum or internationally.

Ethiopia should continue telling the Sudan privately or in the open ( AU,UNITED NATIONS ) that their problem is with Egypt not Ethiopia.



Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 06 Jul 2021, 23:16



በዚች ቪድዮ ዮርዳኖሳዊ የሚሊታሪ ኤክስፐርት ሂሻም ኹረይሳት ግብጽ የህዳሴ ግድብን ለማጥቃት ያላትን ችሎታ እስከ የት እንደሚደርስ ሲመረምር የሚከተለው ይላል ፥

1_ ግብጽ እስካሁን ስታካሂደው በነበረችው ድርድር ጎን ለጎን ባለፉት ኣስር ኣመታት ግድቡን የመምታት ጉዳይ ሲነሳ ምን መደረግ እንደ ኣለበትና ( ግድቡ በየት እንደሚመታ ፡ የዜሮ ሰኣቱ መቸ እንደሚሆን ...ወዘተ ) ዝግጅት ስታደርግ ቆይታለች ። ይህን በጉዳዩ በጥብቅ ተሰማርተው ያሉ ሰዎች የሚያውቁት ነው ።

2_በየኣመቱ የግብጽ ወተዳሮች በኣገር ውስጥና በውጭ በሚደረጉ 33 ወታደራዊ ልምምዶች ይካፈላሉ ። የመጨረሻው " ነስር ኣንድና ንስር ሁለት " ከሱዳን ጋር ። የግብጽ ሰራዊት በደረጃው ከ 145 ኣገሮች በ 13ቦታ ተስርቶ ይገኛል ። ክህንድ ጋር የሚነጻጸር ማለት ነው ።

3_ግብጽ በሱዳን ልትተማመን ኣትችልም ። ያም ሆኖ ይህ ሱዳን በወታደራዊ ኣይን ለግብጽ ኣታስፈልጋትም ። (ግብጽ የሱዳን መሬትን መጠቀም የለባትም) ምክንያቱም ሱዳን በጥቅም ምክንያት ትስስርዋ ከኣረብ ወደ ኣፍሪቃ ጠጋ ያለ ሆኖ ግብጽን እንደ የመሬት ቀማኝ - የሓላይብና ሸላቲን ጉዳይ - ነው የምታያት ።

4_ ሱዳን በመሬትዋና በሰማይዋ ማሳለፍ እምቢ ካለች ሌላ መንገድ ለየግብጽ የኣየር ሃይል ከየበርኒስ የኣየር ሃይል በይዝ ተነስቶ በቀይ ባህር ተጉዞ የኤርትራ ሰማይ ሰግሮ ፡ ፍቃድ ጠይቆ ከተሰጠው ማለት ነው ፡ ወደ ግድቡ ያለበት ቦታ መድረስ ነው ። ደርሶ-መልስ 4340 ኪሎ ሜትር መሆኑ ነው ። እዚህ ማወቅ ያለብን የግብጽ ራፋል በጥራቱና ይዞታው ከየፈረንሳና የቐጠር ያነሰ ስለሆነ የላቀ የጉዞ ኣቅሙ 1900 (ደርሶ-መልስ 3800? ) ኪሎ ሜትር ነው ። ይህ በካታሎግ ያለውና ለሳይኮለጂካዊ ጦርነት ፍጅት ተብሎ የሚቀርበው ንግግር በጎን ትተን ማለት ነው ።

5_ የግብጽ ራፋል ካታሎግ የኣውሮፕላንዋ ራዳር ባንድ ግዜ እስከ 40 ኢላማዎች ሊከታተል ይችላል ይላል ። ይሄ ጥሩ ነው ። ከስምንት ዒላማዎቹ ደሞ ባንድ ግዜ ለመግጠም ችሎታ ኣለው ይላል ። እኔ በግልጽ ልነግር በካታሎግ የሚጻፍና በሃቅ የምታገኘው የተለያየ ነው ። እኔ ሃቁ እንዴት እንደሆነ ኣውቃለሁ ። እኔ ትንሽ ዲፕሎማስያዊ ብሆን ቁጥሮቹን ማጣራት የሚያስፈልጉ ናቸው ። ምን ለማለት ነው ? ከስሜት ራቅ ካልክ ቁጥሮቹ እንደሚባሉ ሳይሆን ሌሎች ናቸው ።

ጋዜጠኛው ፥ እኔ እስካሁን ድረስ እንደ ተረዳሁት ኣንተ ሱዳን መሬትዋና ሰማይዋ ለወታደራዊ ስራ የመጠቀም መብት ለግብጽ ካልሰጠች የሰድ ኣል-ናህዳ መምታት ጉዳይ ሊፈጸም ኣይችልም ወይም እጅግ ኣስቸጋሪ ይሆናል ነው የምትለው ፡ ትክክል ?

ሂሻም ኹረይሳት ፥ ሁሉ ነገር በእስራኤል ነው የሚካሄደው ። ኣል-ቡርሃን በድብቅ የሚናገረው ከግብጾች ከሚናገረው ለየት ያለ ነው ። ልቡ ከኣፍሪቃውያኖች ነው ። ያም ሆኖ ይህ የሱዳን ወታደር ልትተማመንበት ኣትችልም ። ታዕባን/ደካማና የማይረባ / ነው ። ሱዳን እምቢ ካለች የግብጽ ሚግ-29 እና ኤፍ-16 በዚህ ውግያ ምንም ሚና ሊጫወቱ ኣይችሉም ። ርቀቱ በሺ ኪሎሜትሮች የሚቆጠር ጠፈራዊ ስለ ሆነ ። ስለዚ ለግብጽ የሚቀራት ራፋል ነው ። ራፋሉ ደሞ በሰማይ በጣም ከፍ ብሎ ሊያጠቃ ሲሞክር ስፓይደር ( የሚሳይል ስርዓት ) ፓይሶንና ኤስ-300 ሊከታተለው ይችላል ። የጫነውን ነዳጅ ልያፈስ ሊገደድ ይችላል ( ለመገለባበጥ ሊመቸው ይሆን ? ) ፡ ሲኾይ-27 ከገጠመው ማለት ነው ። ስኾይ-27 በቀላል ማየት ኣይገባም ። በዚህ ኣይነት ሁኔታ ( በግጥሚያው ) ራፋል በችግር ልትገባ ትችላለች ። ራፋል ከፍታውን ትታ ዝቅ ብላ ለማጥቃት ብትመርጥ ጠባቂ ኣውሮፕላኖች ሊያስፈልግዋት ነው ። ኣሳዛኝ ሆኖ ለዚህ ስራ የሚመቹ ሲኾይ-35 ብቻ ናቸው ። እነሱም ቁጥራቸው በጣም ያነሰ ነው ። ሚግ-29 እና ኤፍ-16 የጉዞው ርቀት ከግብጽ ፈለኪ/ኣስትሮኖሚካል/ጠፈራዊ ስለ ሆነ ለዚ ስራ ፈጽመው ኣይበጁም ። ከዛ ባሻገር የምትጠቀመው ቦምብ ጉዳይ ኣለ ። ኣንዳንድ ኣገሮች የውግያ ኣውሮፕላኖች ሲሸጡልህ የምስጥህን ቦምብ በፍቃዴ ብቻ ነህ የምትጠቀመው ይሉሃል ። ስለ'ዚ ራፋል ግድቡን እጅግ ሊጎዳ የሚችል ልዩ ሃይለኛ ቦምብ ልትጠቀም ብትፈልግ እስራኤል ተቃውሞ ልታሳይ ትችላለች ። ከመደምደሜ በፊት የነዳጅ ጉዳይ ኣለ ። በልዩ ኣውሮፕላኖች ካልተቻለ ራፋሎች ባዲ-ቱ-ባዲ ነዳጅ ልያቀብሉ ይችላሉ ። በመጨረሻ ግብጽ ግድቡን ከመታች - እኔ የምመኘው ነገር ነው - ፈጽሞ የሚያፈርሰው መሆን የለበትም ምክንያቱ ያ ከሆነ ካርቱም እስከ 28 ሜተር ትጥለቀለቃለች ፡ ከግድቡ ኣንድ ቢልዮን ሚተር ክዩቢክ ሲፈስ ደሞ በግብጽ 290,000 ግብጾች ስራቸው ያጣሉ ምክንያቱ ማጥለቅለቁ እጅግ ሃይለኛ ስለ ሚሆን ።

Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 07 Jul 2021, 11:19


With the start of the second filling of the "Ethiopian dam" reservoir... Anticipation in Egypt for the crucial Security Council session next Thursday... What are the expected scenarios? Will Sameh Shoukry's speech pave the way for the long-awaited military option? An Egyptian academic over seventy swears by God that he is ready to participate in the war in defense of the Nile.

Cairo – Mahmoud Al-Qaei:

The attention of the Egyptians is directed to the Security Council to follow up on the crucial session in which the Ethiopian dam crisis, which has become a preoccupation for the whole world in general and Egyptians in particular, will be discussed.

Many are no longer counting too much on the Security Council and the international community to end the nightmare of the Ethiopian dam, recalling the history and its sermons.

Others called for sticking to the negotiations to the last extent.

In the opinion of Professor of Political Science, Dr. Ismail Sabry Makled, despite being absolutely certain that we will not come out with a single positive result from the emergency meeting of the UN Security Council that will be held next Thursday at the request of Egypt and Sudan to discuss the crisis of the Ethiopian ruin dam, what he expects from Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry conveyed his speech to the Council a clear and specific warning message to the world after all the peaceful negotiating efforts with Ethiopia failed and reached the end of a dead end, very strong, frank and decisive, and that this message, at this very precise and critical time, has been formulated in a way that the world cannot err Understand it so that he can review himself and move more positively before it is too late...especially since we are now in the last quarter of an hour, as they say in the language of crisis management.

Makled added that we have now gone beyond with the ruling regime in Ethiopia, the language of compliments, truces and soft pleas, because it no longer works or moves with this type of rulers who do not know or respect anything other than the language of force and violent deterrence .. rulers who we should not continue to describe yet Everything they did to us and what they want to do to us in the future, to brothers or friends, because true brothers and friends do not act with their brothers, friends and neighbors with such obstinacy, arrogance and stubbornness, nor with such a spirit of hatred, malice and open hostility, nor by denying their indisputable right to life, existence and survival. Under the pretext of what they falsely describe as their right to development, even if the price of this alleged development is the death and annihilation of others.

He said that the upcoming meeting of the UN Security Council must understand the whole world from our unequivocal warning message by the Egyptian Foreign Minister that it will be the last message to the Council and that we are fighting the most dangerous battles of survival and that we are defending our right to life, a right that cannot be waived or waived Or compromising on it, and that Ethiopia’s sole decision to manage the dam that it erected on this common international river constitutes a flagrant aggression from it against our right to life, which requires a response to it with all our means of force and resistance, and that we will not let them evade their conspiracy against us in peace, and that the Security Council And the crisis is about to explode, so that he will assume his responsibilities for which he was found to protect peace and security in the world, and that the world must hear from us what it must hear.

Danger is approaching us and approaching us and threatening us with cutting our vital water arteries and destroying us forever, even if it does not act with firm and binding decisions to save Peace and security in Africa and the world is a great and verifiable catastrophe. It becomes our right at that time to act as we consider our duty towards ourselves without hesitation, complacency, leniency or negligence in legitimate self-defense permitted by all laws. And international conventions do not reserve it.

Makled pointed out that the Ethiopians have to put their minds in their heads, and then they have to choose the path they want for themselves...and they have to bear the consequences and consequences.

And he concluded: “With this, we have reached the finish line, with our peaceful management of the crisis…. And if this is unfortunate after we did in these negotiations what we did, then it is the reality in which we have no power.”
Egypt's right

In the same context, Dr. Hassan Nafaa, Professor of Political Science at Cairo University, said that it must be understood by the observers that presenting the dispute over the Ethiopian dam to the Security Council does not confiscate Egypt's right to legitimate self-defense, so what about the right to defend existence.
Nafaa added that it is important to have the will to do what is necessary, and for its timing to ensure the achievement of the desired goals.
A small step or a big calamity

For his part, former parliamentarian Ahmed El-Tantawy said that next Thursday: “either a small step or a big calamity” in the battle to defend the existence of the Egyptian state.

Al-Tantawi added that there are only two things: a real peaceful solution or an available military solution, indicating that he does not see until this moment any prospect for a peaceful solution except through a military solution in light of the start of the second filling.
Red line

Journalist Mustafa Bakri said that Ethiopia is still bragging and evading, stressing that Egypt is on its way because water security is a red line.


Bakri said that the Foreign Minister will present before the Security Council session the decisive Egyptian response to Ethiopia's evasions, lies and falsification of facts.

Bakri concluded by stressing that Egypt's water security is an existential issue, and the Security Council session on Thursday will be decisive.
the war

For his part, Professor of Journalism, Dr. Abdullah Zalta, swore that he was ready, after he was over seventy, to return to the ranks of the armed forces and participate in any military action against Ethiopia to preserve the waters of the Nile.He described the Nile as the lifeblood of the entire Egyptian people.


Readers comments :



ኣል-ሓበሺ ኣል-ፈኹር ( Proud Abyssinian ) ፡

For all the Egyptian experts and intellectuals, your pessimistic views on the second filling of the dam are very worrying and you all seem to think that the lion's share of the Nile belongs to you and that only Egypt has the upper hand... You all have a supremacy complex. Ethiopia does not deserve anything and Ethiopia is obstructing negotiations. While you all forgot and ignored that your country, Egypt and Sudan, are demanding impossible demands from Ethiopia to give you full control over the dam that is its land and built by its brave people.... !!

Let me ask you all: Do you believe in destroying the dam that Egypt will be safe? Do you all believe that Africans will forgive you for this evil act? Do you all think that you will be able to control 120 million Ethiopians with a deep history of grievances from the racist Arabs who treat our people as slaves and vassals?

.. To the man in your article, who ask the Abyssinian nation to put its minds on its heads.. For all of you, a surprise.. We will complete the dam and remove poverty from our people and neighbors.. Despite all your wishes with a pessimistic view of the future... We are already on our way to filling the dam with confidence and all Something is going as planned... This day will change the region into a prosperous future for the three countries... I can assure you all that there will be no impact on Egypt or Sudan.. You all need to stop all collective racist feelings and wake up and smell the roses and I advise you all to use your brain and your knowledge for the advantage of humanity instead of sowing the seeds of hatred and racism. Time has changed and you all need to adapt and move with the flow of peace and calm..just like the great waters of the Nile.



ራኢፍ ፡

Let's be logical and rational and think in an impartial way.The waters of the Nile do not belong to Egypt alone.All countries that share the waters of the Nile have the right to benefit from the waters of the Nile.

The monopoly of the Nile water by the Egyptians is illogical and has become part of the past.Ethiopia is a poor country and needs electricity, as Egypt did when it built the High Dam, and it has a surplus of electricity that it sells to Jordan.Isn't it enough for dozens of years, and Egypt is the most beneficiary of the Nile River?Ethiopia has a right to the waters of the Nile, and I do not think that Ethiopia intends to create a crisis with Egypt or create a drought problem for Egypt, but it has the right to think of benefiting from its natural resources for the benefit of its citizens.



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Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 07 Jul 2021, 12:29

------------------


ሁሉ የሚባለው ኣረቦች እንደሚሉት " ከላም ጀራኢድ " / የጋዜጣ ንግግር፡ ጨወታ / ሊሆን ይችላል ። ማንበብ ግን ባይጠቅምም ኣይጎዳም !!




The Security Council confuses Egypt's bet in putting pressure on Ethiopia | | Arab newspaper.


Cairo - An early position of the Security Council confused Egyptian and Sudanese plans to pressure Ethiopia to prevent it from starting the second stage of filling the Renaissance Dam.

The French delegate to the United Nations, Nicolas de Riviere, expressed his belief that the Security Council is unable by itself to find a solution to the dam issue, calling for opening the door and inviting the three countries to express their concerns and encourage them to return to negotiations to find a solution.

The French delegate's message seemed clear that there is no solution outside the negotiating track, which strengthens Addis Ababa's stubborn position and weakens Cairo's bet on a neutral paper that supports its position.

After years of negotiations and negotiations between the three parties, and after Egyptian hints of moving against the dam without disclosing details, the Egyptian tone changed, and the Sudanese followed it in talking about a complaint in the Security Council or the international judiciary.

Egypt and Sudan have exhausted a lot of efforts to reach a solution to the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis, and they are left with nothing but to seek the help of the Security Council, which will hold a session tomorrow, Thursday, to discuss the crisis without indications that it will adopt a decisive position in it.

Cairo received a great shock from Addis Ababa, when the latter informed it that it had embarked on the second filling of the dam, in a sign of defiance and indifference to Egypt’s movements within the corridors of the Security Council, and that it had reassurances that the members of the Council would not exert strong pressure on it, considering that the second filling and the dam in general represent a threat to security. and regional peace.

Egyptian diplomatic sources revealed that Cairo is not waiting for the council to pressure Addis Ababa because of the interests of major powers with Ethiopia, and all it expects is the issuance of a statement to rely on to continue or stop searching for a negotiated solution.

The sources added, in a statement to Al-Arabiya, that the major powers are well aware of this paradox and will be keen to come up with a formula that opens the door of hope for negotiation and closes it in front of the military solution that Egypt has waved about more than once, because it knows that the former represents a major and real option for Cairo amid the high cost it carries the second choice.

The Vice-President of the Egyptian Council for African Affairs, Ambassador Salah Halima, said that the Egyptian demand is clear about the necessity of the Security Council’s intervention, as there are threats to security and peace in the region, and we hold the Council responsible for preserving them by taking appropriate measures to stop Ethiopia’s unilateral practices aimed at imposing a fait accompli and violating international law and the agreement of principles after She made the second filling without agreement.

Halima added in a statement to “Al-Arab” that these demands are the subject of consultation among the members of the Security Council, and it is assumed in such a case that there will be a decision or at the most, a statement supporting reaching an agreement that avoids threatening security and peace, and in the event that this does not happen, the three countries must reach To a consensual solution, and if this is not achieved, Egypt will have the right to legitimate defense of its water rights by the appropriate means.

The Egyptian regime finds itself in a dilemma and very narrow options, with the negotiating horizon blocked and citizens raising the ceiling of their expectations to move towards a military solution in defense of dignity and national security.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi had previously warned against harming Egypt's water, saying in a firm tone, "We do not threaten anyone, but no one can take a drop of water from Egypt... Otherwise, the region will witness a state of instability that no one imagines."
Nicolas de Riviere: The Security Council is unable by itself to find a solution to the issue of the Renaissance Dam
Nicolas de Riviere: The Security Council is unable by itself to find a solution to the issue of the Renaissance Dam

Cairo is still committed to returning to entering into new talks, and hopes to open up hope through the Council to adopt sponsorship and oversight of negotiations in cooperation with the African Union, and to abandon the latter's acquisition of crisis management.

This formula may be satisfactory for the three countries, as it fulfills one of the important conditions for both Egypt and Sudan, and Ethiopia will not object to that after it embarked on the second filling unilaterally without causing damage to the two downstream countries, because the filling will not be complete in the presence of technical problems that prevent storing The full prescribed quantity (13.5 billion cubic metres).

This step achieves Ethiopia's moral goal, removes from Egypt the justification for material damage, embarrasses Sudan to remain far from supporting any hard options, and provides the major powers with the opportunity to intervene in a calm manner that achieves their interests with the three countries at a low cost.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and his Sudanese counterpart, Maryam Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi, affirmed their categorical rejection of Ethiopia's announcement of starting the second filling of the Renaissance Dam, as it represents an explicit violation of the provisions of the Declaration of Principles Agreement signed between the three countries.

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that the two ministers met in New York to continue coordination and consultation on the developments of the Renaissance Dam file and to prepare for the Security Council session, which they traveled specifically to attend together.

The Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation received an official letter from his Ethiopian counterpart stating that the process of filling for the second year of the Renaissance Dam reservoir had begun. The Egyptian minister responded by rejecting this unilateral measure and sent a copy of it to the President of the Security Council to inform him of the development.

These facts lead to attempts to search for a way out that saves face for all and cuts off the road, provided that a direct military solution is the only option for Egypt with Ethiopia, whose repercussions will not be tolerated by neighboring countries in light of the accumulation of internal problems in it.

Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 08 Jul 2021, 16:22

New York-Cairo-Anatolia: Diplomatic sources at the United Nations confirmed, Thursday, that there will be no vote on the Arab draft resolution on the Renaissance Dam file, during the Security Council session scheduled for today, to discuss the issue.

On Thursday, the Security Council will hold a session on the Ethiopian dam dispute, the second of its kind after the first last year, to move the negotiations stalemate between the three countries.
The sources told Anadolu Agency: "There will be no vote on the draft resolution in today's session, which will be held at three o'clock this afternoon, New York time (19:00 GMT)."

The sources, who preferred to remain anonymous, said that "an increasing number of council member states (15 countries) are convinced that the Security Council is not the appropriate place to discuss disputes between countries over cross-border rivers."


Diplomatic sources revealed that there are differences between representatives of the member states regarding setting the Arab draft resolution for a maximum period of 6 months to reach an agreement between the three concerned countries, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.

Ahead of the expected session of the Security Council to discuss the file of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam today, Thursday, sources reported that Ethiopia, during the past hours, refused international mediation to stop the second filling of the dam.

The sources said that Addis Ababa refused to return to the negotiations conditional on stopping the second filling.

She also added that Ethiopia wants to return to negotiations after the completion of the second filling of the dam.

In addition, she pointed out that Ethiopia has rejected a European proposal to host the parties to the dam crisis, and that Washington will hold individual talks with the parties to the dam later, and White House sources said that the US President will intervene in an attempt to resolve the crisis.

This comes at a time when the Security Council is likely to discuss today, Thursday, the issue of the Renaissance Dam, which is being built by Ethiopia, after the Arab countries asked the Council to discuss the issue.

On Monday, Ethiopia notified the downstream countries of the Nile, Egypt and Sudan, to start the process of a second filling of the dam with water, without reaching a tripartite agreement, which Cairo and Khartoum rejected, as a unilateral measure.

For his part, Egyptian Defense Minister Lieutenant-General Mohamed Zaki said on Thursday that his country's army is capable of deterring anyone who dares to harm the capabilities of the Egyptian people and the country's security.

This came in a speech during his meeting with officers appointed to assume leadership positions in the armed forces, according to a statement by the Egyptian army, in conjunction with the escalation of tension with Ethiopia after it announced the start of the second filling of the “Renaissance” dam.

Zaki added that "the armed forces, with their combat capabilities and advanced weapons in all disciplines, are able to deter anyone who seeks to harm Egypt's security and the capabilities of the Egyptian people," without mentioning a specific party.

And he added, "Defending the homeland and protecting its national security is a sacred task that requires constant combat readiness and building a force capable of facing challenges."

Zaki called on the officers to “upgrade their scientific and intellectual levels to be fully aware of regional and global events, and their repercussions on Egyptian national security,” according to the same statement.

Zaki's statements come in conjunction with the escalation of tension between Egypt and Sudan on the one hand and Ethiopia on the other hand, after the latter announced the start of the second filling of the "Renaissance" dam disputed between the three countries 10 years ago.

On March 30, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi issued the strongest threat to Addis Ababa, saying that “the hostile act is ugly, and has an impact that extends for years (..) it will not take a drop of water from us, otherwise the region will witness a state of instability that no one imagines.”

Later on Thursday, the UN Security Council will hold a session on the Ethiopian dam dispute, the second of its kind after the first last year, to move the stalemate of negotiations between the three countries.

On Monday and Tuesday, Ethiopia (the upstream country of the Nile) notified Egypt and Sudan (the downstream countries) of the start of the process of the second filling of the dam, which the two countries rejected, and they addressed two letters to the Security Council about “that unilateral measure that affects international peace and security.”

Cairo and Khartoum hope that the Security Council will push for an effective return to negotiations in order to reach a just and binding tripartite agreement on filling and operating the dam, according to official statements in the two countries.

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 08 Jul 2021, 17:30


Ethiopia is a rogue and Israel must be used.. The Egyptian media continues to search for a solution to the Renaissance Dam crisis.



CAIRO - No voice is louder than the "Renaissance Dam" in Egypt since Ethiopia announced on Monday evening the start of the second filling of the dam officially, and for the second day in a row, the issue of the dam topped all the Egyptian media, which hosted a large number of experts in various fields in search of way out of this dilemma.

Most of the guests and experts provided an analysis and explanation of the situation, whether at the technical level, water quotas, or at the political level in the UN Security Council, without specifying a clear solution to end the crisis, while a politician and former diplomat offered to resort to Israel to solve the crisis.

The official spokesman of the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation issued a statement on Monday evening, announcing that the Minister of Irrigation, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, had received an official notification from his Ethiopian counterpart, Seleshi Begley, informing him of the start of the second filling of the Renaissance Dam.




Israel is the solution, not the problem


The former diplomat, Mostafa El-Feki - who worked as a secretary to former President Hosni Mubarak - said during his interview with the journalist Sherif Amer on the "Happening in Egypt" program broadcast on the Saudi-owned channel "MBC Egypt" that he had not witnessed such a blatant challenge from a state to the international community with this The picture before, except in the position of Israel when it was negotiating and at the same time building settlements on Palestinian lands.

Despite comparing Ethiopia to Israel, El-Feki referred to it - in his dialogue - as one of the solutions in the context of his review of papers still owned by Egypt, including “non-Arab” countries, in reference to Israel, and that it is able to put pressure on Ethiopia. of the problem."

Al-Feki, who is currently the head of the Library of Alexandria, called for opening the doors with everyone and talking with Israel, "You say that I and you have a peace agreement that I have never broken despite all your provocations, how do you go to help a state, and you are the one who is holding the electrical project, and you are the one who protects the dam and does something harmful, We said no harm, no harm."





Rogue State

It was noticeable that a number of those hosted by the Egyptian media chose the path of attacking Ethiopia and describing it as a rogue state and outlawing international law, and among them was the African affairs expert Amani Al-Taweel, who said - during a telephone interview yesterday evening, Tuesday, with the media, Lamis Al-Hadidi - that Addis Ababa sends a message to the member states of the Security Council. That your meeting is worthless, commenting by saying that "Ethiopia, with its policy, is a rogue state against international law."

As for Ambassador Mohamed Hegazy, the former assistant foreign minister - during a telephone interview yesterday with the media, Nashat Al-Daihi, on the “TEN” satellite channel, he described Ethiopia as a reckless country that deviates from the rules of international law governing the management of international rivers, and which seeks with a unilateral and unilateral will to impose hegemony on The only water resource for Egypt and Sudan.

In turn, Professor of International Law at Cairo University, Mohamed Sameh Amr, said during a telephone interview with the “A Last Word” program broadcast on the “On” channel, that Ethiopia threatens international peace and security in East Africa, and does not deal appropriately with Egypt’s respect for its people’s right to development .

Mufeed Shehab, a professor of international law and former Egyptian Minister of Parliament, criticized Ethiopia's unilateral start of the second filling, indicating that it had reached the highest levels of intransigence.

He said that its position threatens security and peace in the Horn of Africa region, and thus in the whole world, stressing the correctness of the Egyptian legal position, and strongly defending the Declaration of Principles Agreement signed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in 2015 with the leaders of Ethiopia and Sudan, which Egyptians believe opened the door to Ethiopia to proceed with the construction of the dam.










Journalists and classic statements

In the manner of the statements that were famous in Egypt, starting in the sixties and seventies, and chants of “soul with blood,” the statements of the Egyptian media came in the introductions to the talk show programs. A force on the face of the earth prevents the flow of the Nile to Egypt, and that all Egyptian options are available in the face of Abi Ahmed's crime, he said.

The other journalist close to the regime, Nashat Al-Daihi, came out in a fiery introduction to his program, "With Paper and Pen", declaring that the Nile River "will continue to flow either with our water or with our blood," and that when Egypt moves, it will "trample and trample", while Azza Mustafa sent a message to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, in which she said “The Egyptian state is ready to deal with you,” and “You are playing with fire.”

Not everyone forgot to emphasize their full confidence in the political leadership and the Egyptian state and their ability to deal with the current crisis, and the entire Egyptian people's support for President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.







The Egyptians are awaiting the UN Security Council session tomorrow, Thursday, at the request of the downstream countries of the Nile, Egypt and Sudan, to discuss developments in the Renaissance Dam crisis, hoping that it will end with a position that supports the rights of the two countries.

Ethiopia insists on starting a second filling of the Renaissance Dam this July and next August, even if it does not reach an agreement on the dam it is building on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile, which represents a lifeline for Egypt and depends on it mainly to meet its needs, whether for drinking or farming.

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 08 Jul 2021, 18:58



Khalid is always to the point. He already stated two days ago that the UNSC does not have the right capacity to deal with the GERD issue and what it can do at the most is offer recommendations.

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 08 Jul 2021, 18:58



Khalid is always to the point. He already stated two days ago that the UNSC does not have the right capacity to deal with the GERD issue and what it can do at the most is offer recommendations.

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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Jul 2021, 19:07

Members of the United Nations Security Council have supported the mediation efforts of the African Union between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan in the dispute over the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, and urged all parties to resume talks.




Anchorwoman : To comment on the topic there is with us in the studio colleague Khalid Al-Gharabli, Khalid hello !

Khalid : hello!

Anchorwoman: What can we conclude from the gathering of the UNSC ? It is main feature was go back to negotiations, led by the AU ....of course the invitation was directed at Egypt and Sudan

Khalid : ..of course also Ethiopia ...we understand from this the international community represented by the UNSC refused to intervene in this topic, lifts its hands and saying you have to return to the AU. What makes me say this ..of course ...Egypt came to the SC saying what ? The main political aim of Ethiopia is to detain the Nile water, to control it, change it from a border crossing river into an instrument to put pressure on us and to have power of influence, and Egypt will not allow that to happen or take it lightly ...and we call upon the SC to intervene to prevent existential threat to Egypt ....that is to say Egypt looks at the problem not as a mere problem of a dam, building a dam or how the dam is operated or not ....or filling the dam within a particular period ....Egypt believes that there is a deliberate intention from Ethiopia to get control of the river and use it as an instrument of pressure ...and Egypt will not allow that to happen ...because this puts the Egyptian future supply of water in jeopardy ...and water means life and more than 90% of the water that Egypt gets comes from the Nile river ...hence there is a danger of war ...hence Egypt resorts to the UNSC and demands that it intervene .....what did the UNSC reply to this demand ? The US said " the appropriate place to solve the problem is the AU ...not us ...go to the AU " ... France : " solution could be found under the auspices of the AU ...go the AU. " ...Peking : " We support the African mediation "...the foreign minister of Sudan requested ....we will go to the AU but be with us as mediaters or observers ...no one mentioned the last words but the Russians replied for the Russian ambassador said : " Raising the number of mediators or observers wouldn't add any value unless the sides agreed to it ...he knows that Ethiopia wants only the AU ...and even for mediations ...interventions .....although a UN offical has done such offers the important members of the UNSC didn't demonstrate any interest in that direction ....unless desired by all sides ...and they know that Ethiopia doesn't want ....The Russian envoy went further than that and said : " Pouring oil in to the fire and threatening with the use of force is a case that should be prohibited and avoided ....to whom are those words directed ? ....to Egypt ...this is a warning to Egypt which was insinuating with the use of force ....that means not only Egypt and Sudan have lost the diplomatic and political battle and Ethipia has won it ....more importantly Egypt and Sudan are now very well conscious when they return to the negotiations table that the big powers do not share the views of Sudan and Egypt but that of Ethiopia which sees that the solution is with the AU ....if those ( the big powers ) had seen an existential threat and war where intervention is required ...to find a solution ...they would have put pressure on Ethiopia ...would have arrived at a certain resolution...they haven't done that ...they returned the topic to the AU ...that means if Egypt and Sudan returned to future negotiations they have to know that ...with out the support of the big powers ...of course they have a military solution which is restricted by time ...if they wanted it - Sudan doesn't want it - if Egypt were to decide wouldn't be possible after the second filling of the dam because the dam will turn itself into a WATER BOMB.

Anchorwoman : ...we are asking because the Egyptian foreign minister was hinting, at least that was what we understood from him, that Egypt faced an existential threat arising from the dam and therefore would be compelled to use force , according to his words, ...Khalid ... is the military option the only one left for Egypt ?

Khalid : It is one of the important options ...there is of course the diplomatic option .. ...the return to the negotiations but as I have said Egypt and Sudan now know very well that they will be sitting with Ethiopia which has been negotiating with them without leading to something ( Anchor : while Ethiopia at the same time filling the dam ...) of course filling the dam and winning more time for the construction process and filling ...the negotiations led by South Africa and then Congo resulted in nothing ...Ethiopia feels now with a sense of power ...this big powers are with her and support her in her position ....if they ( Egypt and Sudan ) want to continue negotiations they should know that it most probably will lead to submission ...the one with the strong position is the one who imposes his will ...and here the one who appears strong through negotiations ....the military option remains still available ( in display ) ....Egypt perceives an existential threat if the case remains without an agreement which guarantees to her that there wouldn't be a realy existential threat ...but in case of an existential threat ( one ) intervenes militarily but Egypt has perceived it since some time ....and didn't move militarily ..may be she thinks there is some margin ( space ) diplomatically ....the pivotal question is has the leadership in Egypt reached a point where it perceives the margin ( moving space ) is gone and nothing is left but a military option ...the decision is upto the leadership or army of Egypt ....many experts see that the case is closed both politically and diplomatically ...no one is going to put pressure on Ethiopia. The case of arbitration ...Ethiopia refuses arbitration so the path is useless ...mediation ...the AU mediation has led to nothing ...therefore what is left, according to experts, the military option, if Egypt wants to reach a solution that satisfies its interest and not that of Ethiopia ....but the military option is restricted by time ...the second filling of the dam will need two months and if Ethiopia is able to capture 13,5 billion cubic meter ....and the capacity of the dam in total reaches 18,5 billion cubic meter with the 5 billion cubic meter which is already there ...that means a WATER BOMB ...after that any military action would render itself useless ...the military option is restriced by time and when such a decision ( military attack ) is taken - Egypt is capable of carrying out such a military task - but Egypt knows that the US,EU, Russia and China reject the military option ...therefore if that happens it will have its consequences ...now the topic is calculation ...weighing-in is the reducation of water that flows to Egypt ( from Ethiopia ) and the instrumentalization of the Nile as a tool to put pressure on Egypt more dangerous than the external pressure which could take the shape of sanctions ...where would Egypt gain and lose ...at that point could Egypt take a decision ...but if the limited period for military action ends and only a diplomatic solution is left then the balance of power will be clearly on the Ethiopian side to impose her will.

Anchorwoman : Thank you, colleague Khalid Al-Gharabli.

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