Ethiopian News, Current Affairs and Opinion Forum
Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 01 Mar 2023, 17:48

  • Does Qatar play a role in resolving the “Renaissance Dam” crisis?

    Madbouly praised Doha's position in support of Egypt and Sudan

    Cairo: «Asharq Al-Awsat»

    Wednesday - 8 Shaaban 1444 AH - March 01, 2023 AD

    The Egyptian Prime Minister, Dr. Mostafa Madbouly, praised the position of the State of Qatar in support of Egypt and Sudan regarding the “Renaissance Dam” file, renewed questions about the role that Doha can play in resolving the situation regarding the Ethiopian dam, on which negotiations have stalled over the past two years.

    During his interview with the Qatar News Agency (Tuesday), on the occasion of his working visit to Doha, Madbouly said that Qatar stressed on separate occasions the importance of reaching a (fair, balanced and binding) solution that achieves the common interests of Egypt, Sudan and all Nile Basin countries, and urged the parties to refrain from Taking unilateral measures that would harm the rest of the Nile Basin countries.

    Negotiations between Ethiopia and both Egypt and Sudan over the “Renaissance Dam” have stagnated since the last negotiating round took place on January 10, 2021. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi had announced earlier that “Ethiopia’s intransigence during the talks on filling ( The Renaissance Dam), which has stalled the course of the ongoing negotiations under the auspices of the African Union for months.

    The Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, said during a speech he delivered before the Security Council session that discussed the crisis in July 2021 that his country “has sincerely committed itself to the initiative of the African Union, and has been engaged for a whole year in negotiations in order to formulate an African solution to this crisis, except All these efforts have failed.”

    The dam raises a crisis between the three countries, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, as Egypt and Sudan demand an agreed legal and technical timetable for filling, operating and sharing about the dam’s data, while the Ethiopian government continues the construction of the dam and filling its water reservoir through three stages so far, the last of which was last summer, with a volume of 22 billion cubic meters, amid reports that the Ethiopian authorities are preparing to fill the fourth summer of this year.

    And Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman, the Qatari Minister of Foreign Affairs, announced in mid-June 2021 that there is a unified Arab position on the “Renaissance Dam” crisis in Ethiopia, calling on the parties to refrain from taking unilateral measures and to seek a comprehensive and just solution.

    In his statements, which came at a joint press conference with Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, held after the meetings of Arab foreign ministers held in Doha, the Qatari minister stressed that “all countries stressed the need for all parties to engage in negotiations in good faith in order to urgently reach an agreement.” Fair, balanced and binding on the Renaissance Dam in a way that achieves the common interests of Egypt, Sudan and all Nile Basin countries. African Union and should continue ».

    The Ethiopian Ambassador to Qatar, Samia Zakaria, held talks with the Qatari Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Sultan bin Saad Al-Muraikhi, on bilateral issues. After the meeting, the embassy quoted Al-Muraikhi as saying that his country “supports Ethiopia's right to development, and has not changed its old principle regarding the Renaissance Dam.

    Dr. Tariq Fahmy, a professor of political science at Cairo University, said that the position of the Egyptian prime minister during his visit to Qatar comes within the framework of Egypt's keenness to "unify the Arab position and mobilize support for its position on the (Renaissance Dam) crisis," and that there is a move that started from the Arab League and extended to Countries supporting Egyptian and Sudanese rights.

    Fahmy explained to Asharq Al-Awsat that there is clear Arab support for Egyptian and Sudanese rights in this file, and that there are countries that can play a prominent role in this file, led by Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar and Algeria, by virtue of their relations and interests with Ethiopia, and they can It plays an important role in converging positions, and Algeria had a clear and important position in this regard before and after the Arab summit held on its territory last year.

    Regarding the possibility of Qatar playing a mediating role in the “Renaissance Dam” file, Fahmy did not rule it out, explaining that Qatar has previous experience in regional and international mediation, perhaps mediation between the “Taliban movement” and the United States, in Darfur, and in the Palestinian file, but Cairo It will continue to adhere to the role played by the African Union, based on what has been done, and not to go again to the Security Council based on considerations related to the completion of work within the framework of the regional organizations affiliated to the states parties to the Renaissance Dam file.

    The political science professor pointed out that the Egyptian-Qatari relations have become good relations, and can be built upon for the benefit of both parties, not only with regard to Egypt's water security, but in the overall relations and various fields of cooperation.

    Relations between Egypt and Qatar have witnessed a remarkable positive development since the two countries signed the Al-Ula agreement in Saudi Arabia in early 2021, which ended the differences between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain on the one hand and Qatar on the other. The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, visited the Egyptian capital in late June, and held bilateral talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who in turn visited Doha on September 13, the first visit of its kind in 8 years.




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Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 01 Mar 2023, 23:15

https://www.shorouknews.com/news/view.
  • Sudan's Foreign Minister: The Renaissance Dam is a thorny issue..and we refuse to divide the water.



    Hadeel Hilal

    27-02-2023

    Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Al-Sadiq said, “The Renaissance Dam is a thorny issue,” stressing the importance of settling it between the three countries. Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia.


    He added, during statements to the Bahraini newspaper, Al-Watan, today, Monday, that "there are some external interferences that want to impose a specific agenda on Sudan," pointing out that "this matter is completely unacceptable."

    He pointed out that there is "joint and permanent coordination between Egypt and Sudan in this regard," explaining that the United Arab Emirates hosted about 4 rounds of informal negotiations between the three countries.

    He noted that "those negotiations did not achieve any significant progress, especially in light of the mediators' insistence on imposing the so-called (dividing the water)", stressing that the position of Egypt and Sudan is clear in refusing to divide the water.

    He continued, "If the mediators insist on imposing the issue of dividing the water, we will not reach an agreement, and therefore we in Sudan see that the only way to solve the problem of the Renaissance Dam is negotiations between the three countries."

    He explained that there are two levels of negotiations between the three countries, saying that those concerned at the technical level only talk about technical aspects such as: the safety of the dam and water and the implications for the transit and downstream countries, denying that they have any income from political work and political issues.

    He pointed out that there is a political, ministerial, and legal level represented by committees, concluding: “Those concerned with this matter talk about the political and legal aspects, and therefore I believe that if the matter was left to the three countries alone, an agreement would be reached on the dam.


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Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Mar 2023, 17:32

https://akhbarelyom.com/news/newdetails/4035232/1/
  • Sameh Shoukry calls on Arab countries to support Egypt's position on the Renaissance Dam issue

    Wednesday, 08 March 2023 - 02:45 PM



    Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry affirmed that water security issues are a priority on the Arab agenda.

    In his speech at the 159th regular session of the Council of the League of Arab States at the ministerial level, Shoukry made it clear that Ethiopia would continue to build the dam without an agreement. It is a violation of international law.

    Shoukry added that the continuation of these practices represents a great danger to Egypt, which suffers from water scarcity, and that Egypt is counting on its Arab brothers to adopt any of the solutions that were put on the negotiating table.
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Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 10 Mar 2023, 17:49

  • Renaissance Dam crisis: Egypt is considering going to the Security Council again

    March 07, 2023

    Ethiopia is preparing for the fourth filling of the dam (Amanuel Seleshi/AFP)



    The New Arab learned that a new round of "technical" negotiations regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis took place in the UAE capital, Abu Dhabi, over the past Wednesday and Thursday, with the participation of experts from the three countries concerned with the crisis, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. While these negotiations did not result in anything new, according to the sources, an Egyptian source confirmed that Cairo is preparing to go to the UN Security Council again with the issue of the dam.

    The Renaissance Dam crisis: a round of negotiations like the previous ones

    Sudanese and Egyptian "technical" sources said that "the negotiation round, which was mediated by the UAE, was like the previous rounds that did not result in anything new," noting that the Ethiopian side offered information about the fourth filling process scheduled to begin in the next flood season. That is, in the month of July 2023.

    The sources pointed out that the Ethiopian delegation, which participated in the meetings, did not present any new positions for its country, despite the pressure exerted by Cairo on international mediators in order to revive the political negotiations on the dam crisis, and the contacts that Abu Dhabi is making between the three parties.

    The sources pointed out that Addis Ababa is "trying hard to win over Khartoum's position in the Renaissance Dam crisis, in order to separate the Egyptian and Sudanese positions, in light of the convictions of active parties in Sudan that their country's goals differ from that of Egypt."

    Addis Ababa offered detailed information to Khartoum regarding the fourth filling process

    In this context, an Egyptian source familiar with the negotiations between the three countries told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, preferring not to be named, that Cairo "is well aware of the size of the attempts made by Addis Ababa to change the Sudanese position and separate it from the Egyptian position, by offering a set of facilities that address Sudanese concerns.

    The source indicated that Addis Ababa "presented detailed information to Khartoum regarding the fourth filling process, so that the latter can prepare well for the filling process in a way that avoids any risks or negative repercussions," pointing out that Khartoum, for its part, "received the Ethiopian step with welcome, without sticking to it." By linking it to a binding legal agreement, which is the demand that Egypt adheres to.

    The source explained that the fourth filling process "may be the most dangerous in terms of the expected negative repercussions behind it, as Addis Ababa seeks to reach a water reserve behind the dam, during which, it reaches about 30 billion cubic meters."

    A recent satellite image revealed Ethiopia's preparations for the fourth filling, and indicated that Ethiopia opened two days ago the western gate of the dam, and left the eastern gate to drain about 50 million cubic meters of water.

    According to the Egyptian source, "Ethiopian attempts to separate the Egyptian and Sudanese positions come at a time when Cairo is preparing to knock on the doors of the UN Security Council again, in light of Ethiopia's intransigence regarding returning to negotiations," explaining in this regard that Cairo "cannot take that step." without agreement with Khartoum on it.”

    The source pointed out that the Sudanese position "is not completely clear in the current period," considering at the same time that "the indications coming from Khartoum tend to coordinate with Addis Ababa at that stage." He pointed out that Khartoum "has not yet expressed an explicit position regarding the lack of coordination with Cairo."

    Cairo cannot go to the Security Council again on the issue of the dam without agreement with Khartoum

    Sudan raises concerns about the risks arising from the lack of coordination and exchange of information and the negative impacts on the Roseires Dam, which is a few kilometers away from the Renaissance Dam, which poses a threat to the safe operation of Sudanese dams.

    The Sudanese side stresses that there is information that must be provided by Ethiopia, noting that the lack of coordination "negatively affects water generation from the Roseires Dam and the Merowe Reservoir."

    The dam crisis between the "African solution" and the Security Council

    The last Egyptian move towards the Security Council was a letter addressed by the former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, last August, in which Cairo warned of "the presence of cracks extending in the concrete facade of the secondary dam associated with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam," stressing that this matter is "exciting." Particularly alarmed by Ethiopia's failure to comply with its obligation to conduct required environmental, social and economic impact studies."

    On September 15, 2021, the UN Security Council adopted a presidential statement calling on the parties to the crisis to resume negotiations under the auspices of the African Union.

    The former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister, Ambassador Hussein Haridi, confirmed that Cairo's approach to the UN Security Council regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis is "not required", especially in light of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

    Yemen Salameh: Any decision or statement issued by the Security Council without Chapter VII is not in the interest of Egypt and Sudan

    Haridy said, in an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, that "there is no need now to go to the Security Council, and it is better to focus on the so-called (African solution), bearing in mind that the entire world is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine."

    Regarding the options available to Egypt to ensure that its water rights are not harmed, Haridy said that Egypt is "committed to the approach of negotiation for the peaceful settlement of disputes between countries, and therefore it wants to solve the problem peacefully."

    In this context, professor of public international law Ayman Salama stressed that "any decision or statement issued by the Security Council without Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations is not in the interest of Egypt and Sudan."

    Salameh considered, in statements to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, that "in order for the UN Security Council resolution to become mandatory and enforceable, it must be issued based on Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations Organization, and not a recommendation." He explained that "the presidential statement issued by the Security Council must be issued unanimously by all 15 countries, and it is an official document of the Council and kept in the official archives of the Security Council, and it can be relied upon in the future when the Council deals with the same dispute or situation that threatens international peace and security."

    The member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs added that "there is a difference between presidential statements and media statements, and the latter do not have enforceable obligation compared to the decisions issued by the Security Council based on Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, but in the event that the Security Council's decision is based on Chapter VI, this is Decisions are not enforceable.


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Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 17 Mar 2023, 23:44

  • Ethiopia responds to the statement of the Egyptian Foreign Minister: a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter

    The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry described Shoukry's remarks as "violent and illegal."


    The State of Ethiopia rejected the statements of Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, describing them as "irresponsible", in which he said that "all options are open" regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

    In a statement issued on Thursday, the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, "Such a threat constitutes a flagrant violation of the Charter of the United Nations and the Constitutive Act of the African Union," adding that it "also represents a clear violation of the Declaration of Principles Agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) signed on March 23." March of 2015 between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan.

    "Egypt must stop its violent and illegal statements," she added.

    The ministry called on all concerned parties to pay attention to Egypt's "flagrant violation of the principles of international relations," and stressed that "no interest can be advanced through threats and intimidation."

    The statement added, "If the deal is done in good faith and with full respect for the principles of international law, an amicable solution between the three countries will be within reach in negotiations under the auspices of the African Union."

    The statement stressed that Ethiopia "repeats once again its calls for the parties to re-engage the African Union program and reach a negotiated solution on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam," adding that Ethiopia "for its part, remains committed to a settlement that is beneficial to all."

    The Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, had said that his country “has the right to defend the capabilities and interests of its people, and takes disciplined positions that take into account all considerations and relations,” adding that “all options are open in the Renaissance Dam crisis, and all alternatives remain available, and Egypt has it.” its capabilities and external relations, and it has its capabilities.”

    Shoukry added, during a telephone interview on a television program: "We suffice with declaring all options open without entering into the framework of defining specific procedures, and this serves the Egyptian interest in that all alternatives remain available and Egypt has its capabilities (...) Disciplined attitudes toward (Ethiopian intransigence)
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  • Strong performance by ያሲን ኣሕመድ,as usual, against the arrogant and aggressive ኣሽረፍ ኣል-ዕሸሪ



Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 19 Mar 2023, 16:56



The Sudanese experts are saying something to the effect: the Ethiopians put all the necessary papers concerning the design of The Dam on the table and carried out our recommendations - the recommendation of the Sudanese side based on our experience - with regards to some improvements by making more resources available in terms of more than a billion of dollars. The Dam is being built using the latest technology and monitering systems. During our contact with the Ethiopians we made research on various soil types and visited another dam built by the company responsible for GERD. We are satisfied with the quality of their work.

The host of the programme : in conclusion the Egyptians have to take note of the fact that Sudan knows its interest ( we do not buy your fearmongering / high risk of earthquake and the risk of the Dam collapsing due to inadequacies related to design and construction / stance with regard to the safety of the Renaissance Dam ).



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Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 22 Mar 2023, 20:18

  • An expert in dam engineering told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed: There is no significance to an Egyptian diplomatic move on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam



    March 16, 2023

    In light of Egyptian warnings about the continuation of Ethiopian practices, which Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry described before the recent ministerial meeting of the League of Arab States as "unilateral" in the issue of the Renaissance Dam, and the danger it could carry with it to Egypt, a professor of dam engineering at INTI-IU University speaks in Malaysian Dr. Muhammad Hafez, in an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, about the latest developments on the Renaissance Dam file and the possibility of Cairo going to the UN Security Council.

    Would you inform us on the latest technical developments in the Renaissance Dam file, and the nature of the risks facing Egypt based on these developments?

    The available images from the dam site show the extent of the Ethiopian side’s progress in pouring concrete at large rates in all parts of the Renaissance Dam, whether the eastern or western bloc, which today have reached a level of approximately 625 meters above sea level, while the level of the middle corridor has been gradually rising since the beginning of the drying of the corridor. Which was at the beginning of last February. Today it is expected to be at 605 meters above sea level.

    Recent photos of the middle corridor, published by Maksar Company on March 9, confirm an increasing height of the middle corridor, in preparation for the start of the fourth filling with the onset of the flood next June.

    What does it mean when the middle corridor reaches 625 meters above sea level?

    The corridor reaching this figure implies Ethiopia’s ability to store approximately 27 billion cubic meters, so that the total storage reaches approximately 49 billion cubic meters, or 22 billion cubic meters in the lake today plus 27 billion cubic meters in the fourth filling, and this is what was agreed upon during The three countries met with former US President Donald Trump in February 2020, where the Egyptian Minister of Irrigation, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, unilaterally signed the filling schedule for the Renaissance Dam, in which Ethiopia was allowed to reach a stock equivalent to 49.3 billion cubic meters at the end of the fourth filling.

    Despite Ethiopia's refusal to sign this schedule and leave the negotiating session at the White House, it is, in principle, committed to the quantities mentioned in the schedule, and will reach approximately 49 billion cubic meters of the reservoir of the Renaissance Dam lake during the fourth filling. Accordingly, the claim of the Egyptian state that Ethiopia is carrying out the fourth filling without “prior permission” is a completely false claim, and the evidence for this is the signature of the former Minister of Irrigation on the filling schedule before Trump in February 2020.

    The storage level reached 600 above sea level after the success of the third filling and the storage of approximately 22.4 billion cubic meters has moved the storage concept of the Renaissance Dam to a completely new stage. The storage (the first, second and third) was done directly in the concrete dam lake, but starting from the fourth filling, the storage will be directly in the Sarg Dam lake, and this means that every meter in height in the expanding Sarg Dam lake has a capacity of about one billion cubic meters.

    The Egyptian state's claim that Ethiopia is implementing the fourth filling without "prior permission" is completely false


    At a time when the Renaissance Dam lake expanded from the beginning of the first storage until the end of the third storage to about 820 flat kilometers, however, with the success of the fourth filling, it is expected that the storage area will reach about 1,750 flat kilometers, an increase equivalent to 115% from what it was in August. August 2020. While the total amount that will be stored in that lake during the fourth filling only, will reach an increase of about 35% over the total amount that was stored during the first, second and third fillings.

    What are the dangers of the fourth filling on the Egyptian state?

    Ethiopia stored during the summer of 2023, 27 billion cubic meters, in addition to about 3 billion cubic meters wasted in the lake’s losses, as the fourth filling will be completely stored in the Sarg Dam lake and not in the concrete dam lake, where at least 3 billion cubic meters will be wasted through the process The soil of the bottom of the Sarg Dam lake is saturated, and therefore 30 billion cubic meters will practically be stored, while the average total discharge of the Blue Nile flows during the three summer seasons (July, August and September) is approximately 35 billion cubic meters.

    If the 2023 flood was average, equivalent to 48.5 billion cubic meters annually, not a single drop of water would reach Lake Nasser during the summer months.


    Accordingly, withholding about 30 billion cubic meters of summer flows means that about 5 billion cubic meters remain, which Sudan will seize with its dams on the Blue Nile (Rusairis and Sennar). Accordingly, it can be said with confidence that if the flood of 2023 is a medium flood, that is, a flow equivalent to 48.5 billion cubic meters annually, then in this case not a single drop of water will reach Lake Nasser during the summer months, but it will reach it later. (September) Approximately 14 billion cubic meters from the Blue Nile. While in the event that the 2023 flood is above average, it is possible that Lake Nasser will reach approximately 20 billion cubic meters by the end of the water year, which will end on July 31, 2024.



    What is the water position of the Egyptian state in the current year?

    On the current March 4, the level of Lake Nasser reached approximately 180.88 degrees above sea level, a decrease of only one meter from what it was on October 16, 2022, when the lake was at the highest possible level, near 182, and this is if it indicates On the one hand, it indicates that the Ministry of Irrigation is implementing a severe austerity plan, and that it almost allows the daily flow that reaches it to be drained from the various tributaries of the Nile without any noticeable withdrawal from Lake Nasser, and this is a very good thing at this time in order to preserve every possible water point in Lake to face the consequences of the fourth filling.

    However, this cautious austerity policy cannot last for long. The flow of the Blue Nile today is not more than those 50 million cubic meters that are drained to the states of Egypt and Sudan from the lower outlet pipe on the western side of the Renaissance Dam, in addition to about 20 million cubic meters that are drained by low turbines that operate only about 12 hours a day, while the White Nile drains from the beginning The month of February last until today is considered a great disappointment, as the level of Lake Victoria, the source of the White Nile, decreased significantly. It may be a prelude to the beginning of lean years for all the Nile Basin countries.

    This was greatly reflected in the many fires that broke out from the grounds of a number of Sudanese villages, which were built on a floor of (Peat) soil, which is organic soil submerged in groundwater coming from the White Nile all the time, except that after the scarcity of the White Nile during these days The groundwater level has decreased under the ground of many Sudanese villages, as the dry organic soil has released large quantities of methane gas, which has caused the floors of these villages to ignite over the past two months.

    Therefore, the scarcity of the White Nile this year, which coincides with the fourth filling of the Blue Nile, may put the Egyptian state in a serious life dilemma. The Ministry of Irrigation is affected by the disbursement of huge amounts of reserves in Lake Nasser, which today amounts to about 150 billion cubic meters, and this reserve may be sufficient for the Egyptian state to compensate for what will be stored in the Renaissance Dam lake during the year 2023/2024, but with the advent of September 2024, it will be difficult It is very important to replace any water from Lake Nasser, as the lake level is expected to reach approximately 162 degrees above sea level.

    The scarcity of the White Nile this year, which coincides with the fourth filling of the Blue Nile, may put the Egyptian state in a serious life dilemma


    Here, attention must be drawn to what is happening with the dams of Sudan, which used to empty the remaining water in them before the arrival of the Blue Nile flood in August, and this greatly benefited the Egyptian state, as it received from Sudan about 5.5 billion cubic meters annually known as In Sudanese advance. However, due to the scarcity of the White Nile, it is expected that the Sudanese dams, located on the Blue Nile, will drain some of their reserves, but not to reach Lake Nasser, but rather to be stored in Lake Merowe Dam, which is expected to be exposed to a measure of lack of flow due to this scarcity of the White Nile. Therefore, the Sudanese advance will probably not go to Egypt this year, but will be stored in the Merowe Dam lake.

    Is there a possibility for Egypt to go to the Security Council for the third time, and is there any point in such a step, if it takes place?

    I do not think that any Egyptian diplomatic move, whether at the Arab or international level, will have any significance on the ground. The secret technical talks between Egypt and Ethiopia failed in Abu Dhabi last week, despite the intervention of the UAE with all its investment weight, but Ethiopia refused. He was categorical and uncompromising. Therefore, the movements of the Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, are nothing more than a reaction to the speech of the Egyptian opposition abroad, which accuses the regime of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of selling the Nile to Ethiopia, as a price for Sisi's accession to the rule of Egypt.

    Therefore, it is not possible to expect any positive solution to this problem even if the file of the Renaissance Dam was raised for the third time to the Security Council, so how can the Security Council intervene and help the Egyptian state at a time when the Egyptian state insists on adhering to the agreement of the principles of the Renaissance Dam, which restricts the hand of any external mediator from taking any action A decision that may benefit the Egyptian state in the future.

    Therefore, the Security Council will not consider the issue of the Renaissance Dam seriously, unless the Egyptian state withdraws from the agreement on the principles of the Renaissance Dam once and for all and requests the intervention of an international mediator to solve this problem, which is not only a life problem for the Egyptian people, but also a security problem that affects the stability of the entire middle eastern region.

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Last edited by Abe Abraham on 22 Mar 2023, 20:42, edited 1 time in total.

Abe Abraham
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Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 22 Mar 2023, 20:41

  • Renaissance Dam crisis: Egypt notifies the UAE to withdraw from Abu Dhabi negotiations



    March 23, 2023


    While Ethiopia adhered to its position rejecting the Egyptian observations regarding the operation and filling of the Renaissance Dam, Egyptian and Western sources in Cairo revealed that officials in Egypt had notified the UAE to withdraw from the course of Abu Dhabi's technical negotiations between the three parties to the conflict (Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia).

    According to a Western diplomat in Cairo, Egypt informed officials in the UAE to withdraw from the course of the Abu Dhabi negotiations, which witnessed about 7 sessions held between the technical teams of the three countries, in an attempt to resolve the crisis and prevent any escalation, especially with Addis Ababa approaching the fourth filling scheduled for mid-May. next July, which will continue until early September.

    The reasons for the Egyptian withdrawal from the Abu Dhabi negotiations

    According to an Egyptian technical official, Cairo "has reached a conviction of the futility of technical negotiations with Addis Ababa, especially in light of the lack of any tangible progress, despite the passage of about a year since the start of that track under Emirati sponsorship."

    In an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, he revealed that "officials in Egypt have also come to the conviction that the course of the Abu Dhabi negotiations negatively affects the Egyptian position in front of the international powers concerned with reaching a solution to the crisis, led by the United States, whose officials concerned with the file expressed their astonishment at what they described as the Egyptian accusations against Ethiopia."

    The technical official said, "Officials in the US administration have recently expressed their dissatisfaction with the Egyptian position accusing Addis Ababa of intransigence, considering that the latter's participation in the technical negotiations in Abu Dhabi is in itself a manifestation of good faith."

    What was revealed by Western and Egyptian diplomatic sources to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed explained the reasons for the recent escalation in the official Egyptian position, which was stated by Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, after he finally affirmed that his country has “the right to defend the capabilities and interests of its people, and it takes disciplined positions that take into account All considerations and relationships.

    At the same time, he stressed that "all options are open in the Renaissance Dam crisis, and all alternatives remain available, and Egypt has its capabilities and external relations and has its capabilities." Finally, Shoukry added, during a televised telephone interview, "We suffice with declaring that all options are open without entering within the framework of defining specific procedures, and this serves the Egyptian interest in that all alternatives remain available and Egypt has its capabilities."

    Egyptian official: Cairo has reached a conviction of the futility of technical negotiations with Addis Ababa


    On the other hand, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry confirmed, last Thursday, that "friendly solutions to the issue of the Renaissance Dam with Egypt and Sudan are possible if there is goodwill under the auspices of the African Union." Addis Ababa also expressed its rejection of the Egyptian Foreign Minister's statement, in which he said that all options regarding the Renaissance Dam are open.

    This came at a time when the Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister for African Affairs, Muhammad al-Badri, considered, last Thursday, that the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam represents an "existential" priority that affects the lives of the entire Egyptian people.

    At the time, in a statement by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, it was stated that Al-Badri discussed with the Director of the Africa Department at the British Foreign Ministry, Simon Mustard: "The Egyptian vision regarding the issue of the Renaissance Dam and the stalemate in the negotiations with the Ethiopian side at the present time."

    In the context, the French Foreign Ministry announced that Paris "encourages dialogue between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, and reaching an agreement between them on the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam."

    The Arabic-speaking French Foreign Ministry spokesman, Patrice Paoli, during his meeting with a number of journalists at the French Embassy in Cairo, referred to the declaration issued by the Security Council under the French presidency in 2021, which called and encouraged the concerned parties to dialogue and find a solution through negotiations, which is the reference in Security Council.

    An expert in Egyptian water disputes, Hala Essam El-Din, said in an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that, “If Egypt withdraws from any negotiations regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, this is a reasonable and understandable behavior, so what is the point of negotiations with a country that established the causes of its own harm?

    She added, "I am not surprised by the Ethiopian position, which will cause water disasters in the Nile Basin region, and I imagine that the Ethiopian dam has colonial dimensions that are very harmful to the region."

    Issam El-Din pointed out that "the solution was not at all to build the Renaissance Dam and the dams that followed it, as this behavior indicates a political inability on the Ethiopian side in concepts related to regional security, and even the national security of their state in the foreground, and I believe that their lack of experience led them to build this disastrous dam." ".

    Regarding the possibility of reaching any peaceful settlement of the Renaissance Dam issue, Essam El-Din said, "It is unlikely, because there are international parties to the issue, which have their own water interests in the region, and therefore the settlement will not be between two countries only."

    She pointed out that "Ethiopia, instead of being a party to the Entebbe Agreement in Uganda (a framework agreement signed in May 2010 between 4 of the countries upstream of the Nile River, which are Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, in the absence of Egypt and Sudan (the two downstream countries), got out of the flock." It chirped alone and attracted new colonists to the territory.


    Hala Essam El-Din: I rule out a peaceful settlement in the Renaissance Dam


    Two scenarios for reaching an agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

    For his part, Abbas Sharaki, a professor of water resources at Cairo University, told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that "in light of the atmosphere of tension and the exchange of statements between the three countries, two scenarios loom on the horizon to reach an agreement on the issue of the Renaissance Dam."

    He pointed out that the first is to urge the African Union, under its new leadership headed by the Comoros, to carry out its responsibilities to resume negotiations as soon as possible, to reach an agreement before the start of the fourth war. As for the second scenario, it is represented by Egypt and Sudan going to the UN Security Council for a third time, but this time not because of a water problem, but because there is a serious threat to international peace and security, especially to the 20 million Sudanese who live on the banks of the Blue Nile, who will be exposed to a flood in the event of a dam collapse. Renaissance, due to Ethiopia's exaggeration in increasing its specifications from a storage capacity of 11.1 billion cubic meters as it was in the original American design, to 74 billion cubic meters without agreement.

    Sharqi added, "What compounds the problem is Ethiopia's lack of commitment to conducting the engineering studies requested by the International Committee of Experts in 2013, as was decided in accordance with the 2015 Declaration of Principles of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Article Five."

    He pointed out that "what supports the Egyptian position is what happened in Turkey in terms of earthquakes that threatened the Turkish dams, bearing in mind that the geological environment in Turkey is very similar to the Ethiopian conditions in terms of the presence of the faults of the African Rift, and its exposure to the largest seismic activity in the African continent."

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Abe Abraham
Senior Member
Posts: 14412
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 30 Mar 2023, 17:23





በማሊዝያ የግድብ ምህንድስና የሚያስተምረው ዶክተር መሓመድ ሓፊዝ ከ መሓመድ ናስር ጋር ባደረገው ቆይታ " ዋነኛው የግብጽ የውሃ ችግርና ጭንቀት ከሰፕተምበር 2024 - ካሁን 18 ወራት ወደ ፊት - ነው የሚጀምረው ብሉ ምክንያቱ ( ኢትዮጵያ 17.5 ቢልዮን ክዩቢክ ሚተር ስታስቀር ሱዳን ደሞ 12 ቢልዮን ክዩቢክ ሚተር - ድሮ ለግብጽ ይበደር የነበረውን ለራስዋ ስትጠቀም የተረፈው ለግብጽ ከለመጠጣት ኣልፎ ለሌላ ስለማይበቃ ) ከሰጠ በጓላ ግብጽ በህዳሴ ግድቡ ላይ ወታደራዊ እርምጃ ልትወስድ ትችላለች ወይ ለሚለውን ተከታይ ጥያቄ ሲመልስ ፥ የኮንክሪቱ ግድቡን ፈጽመህ ልትነካ ኣትችልም ሆኖ ግን "ሰድ ኣል-ስርግ "/ የኮረቻ ግድቡ በዚህ ቅርብ ጊዜ በፈይስቡክ ኣካውንቴ በየሳተላይት ለተቀረጸውን ስእል እንዳሳየሁት ከውሃ ነጻ ስለሆነ ኣሁን ልታጠቃው ምቹ ነው ። " የሚያሰማ ንግግር ተናገረ ።

የዶክተር መሓመድ ሓፊዝ ኣትኩሮ ሁል ጊዜ በ " ሰድ ኣል-ሰርግ " የሚሆነው የኮረቻ ግድቡ በኮንክሪት ሳይሆን ከየተሰባበረ ድንጋይ ክምችት / ሰድ ሩካሚ / የተሰራ ስለሆነ በቀላሉ ሊጎዳ ይችላል የሚል እምነት ስላለው ነው ። እምነት ስንል በኣስተሳሰቡ በትምህርቱና ሞያው የተመሰረተ ማለት ነው ።

ሌላ ዶክተር መሓመድ ሓፊዝ 17.5 ና 12 ሲጠቅስ ቁጥሮችን ከየት ኣመጣህ እንዳይባል ባሁን ጊዜ ኢትዮጵያ በግልጽ የውሃ ድርሻዋ በመጠየቅና በመከላከል ስለምትገኝ የዱበይ ንግግሩ በሱ ምክንያት እንደፈረሰ ለተከታታዮቹ ይፋ ኣደረገ ።





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Abe Abraham
Senior Member
Posts: 14412
Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00

Re: أثيوبيا مصر و السودان ( Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan )

Post by Abe Abraham » 30 Apr 2023, 21:26

የታችኛው የሉጥፊ ዘከሪያ ነው ። ሰውየው ኣጣፍጦ ማውራት ይወዳል ። እንስማው !!!
  • كارثة ! تقسيم السودان يبدأ واثيوبيا تستغل الحرب لملء سد النهضة وتطويق مصر والسودان
  • Disaster ! The division of Sudan begins, and Ethiopia is exploiting the war to fill the Renaissance Dam and surround Egypt and Sudan



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