Mereja Forum

[abel qael]

THE FINANCIAL TIMES IS ONE OF THEM

https://www.ft.com/content/1045b184-cd0 ... a5a7819331




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Tigray crisis: ‘They know how to fight and they can do it ’til the end’
Ethiopian region has tradition of hardened fighters but Abiy says offensive can end quickly

Amhara militia are being sent by the thousands to fight in neighbouring Tigray © Eduardo Soteras/AFP
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Andres Schipani in Nairobi and David Pilling in London NOVEMBER 15, 2020
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Nigsti Tadese knew another war was coming when she heard the whooshing of a jet fighter from the Ethiopian air force flying over Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, a region in the north of the country bordering Eritrea.

“We lost our fellows in the last war with Eritrea,” said Ms Nigsti, a grocery store owner, referring to the gruesome Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict of 1998-2000 in which some 70,000 people died and almost no land changed hands.

Tigray is at war again, this time with the federal government in Addis Ababa, and observers fear it could escalate — with huge consequences for the Horn of Africa. “In a war there will not be a winner,” said Ms Nigsti, after Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister, this month sent troops and jets to attack the region, which is led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

Already there are signs of how badly this conflict in northern Ethiopia could turn. On Saturday, the TPLF fired rockets into the airports of the Ethiopian cities of Gondar and Bahir Dar in Amhara state, which neighbours Tigray, as well as across the border at Asmara, the capital of Eritrea. Amnesty International last week reported that potentially hundreds of non-combatants had been stabbed or hacked to death, in an incident that bears all the hallmarks of an ethnic massacre. Witnesses blamed forces loyal to the TPLF, but its leadership has denied any involvement.

The fighting is the culmination of a bitter feud between the TPLF and Mr Abiy who took office in 2018 and purged his governing coalition leadership of many Tigrayans. The TPLF, in turn, defied the postponement of the national presidential poll due to Covid-19 by holding regional elections in September, deemed illegal by Addis.


Citizens wait to vote in Tigray’s regional elections in September. The prime minister later deemed the polls illegal © Eduardo Soteras/AFP
Months of tension escalated into armed conflict this month after an alleged attack by the TPLF on a federal military base of the Northern Command. Mr Abiy has said he expected what he called a “law enforcement” operation to “wrap up soon”.

Many security experts doubt that, saying hostilities could drag on and become a full-blown civil war. “The TPLF is an ex-guerrilla military . . . that knows this game extremely well,” said Rashid Abdi, an independent expert on the Horn of Africa. “They are being attacked on their home ground and everyone who knows the geography of Tigray knows it is difficult, mountainous and rugged — ideal guerrilla territory.”

Western diplomats fear the conflict could even trigger other wars in a country riven by ethnic rivalries.

Shishay Adane, a Tigrayan activist living in Mekelle, the regional capital, said he feared that Ethiopia would “become another Yugoslavia”, a reference to the break-up of that country in the 1990s along ethnic lines. He urged the international community to put pressure on the federal government led by Mr Abiy, whom he called an “authoritarian”.

Recommended
The FT ViewThe editorial board
Ethiopia must step back from brink of civil war

The African Union has called for an immediate ceasefire; the UN said clashes have already sent more than 14,000 refugees across the border into Sudan, and Pope Francis asked for a “peaceful end” of the conflict.

For the moment hostilities are escalating. Thousands of liyu hail, or special forces, and an alliance of militia fighters from the neighbouring Amhara region — which has disputes with Tigray over land — have been deployed to the regional border, local authorities say.

“The conflict is between TPLF and the whole country, not just with Amhara,” said Gizachew Abebe, a senior member of the Amhara government, calling the TPLF “evil”. The central government accuses the TPLF, which it has labelled a “belligerent” and “criminal clique”, of stoking ethnic violence in other parts of the country.

Tigrayans have a long history of fighting Addis Ababa. They did so in the 1940s against Emperor Haile Selassie in the so-called Woyane rebellion. Forty years on, they led a successful guerrilla war against the Marxist Derg regime, coming to power in 1991 after marching into the capital.

Map of Ethiopia
The TPLF then ran the country, as the dominant member of a four-party governing coalition, until 2017, overseeing what is often described as Africa’s most successful economic transformation in a country of more than 110m people. Once associated with famine, for the past 20 years Ethiopia, though authoritarian, has been the fastest-growing large economy in Africa.

But resentment grew against Tigrayans, who make up just 6 per cent of the population. After years of protests, Mr Abiy, from the much bigger Oromo ethnic group, came to power, promising democratic reforms and peace with Eritrea, for which he won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Now, experts warn, fighting with Tigray could draw in Eritrea, whose President Isaias Afewerki has grown close to Mr Abiy, but who loathes the TPLF. The Ethiopia-Eritrea war, fought across the Tigrayan border, left Tigray with an estimated quarter-million armed fighters, according to the Crisis Group.

“They know how to fight and they can do it ’til the end with a knife between their teeth,” said Samahagn Genet, a former soldier who, aged 17, handled bombs in the Ethiopian army during the war with Eritrea.

“The special forces in Tigray are powerful,” said Abel Kidanu, a security analyst in Mekelle. “Most of them are young. They got modern training from the generals and commandos who served Ethiopia for so many years.”


Security experts fear ongoing hostilities could ignite into a full-blown civil war © Eduardo Soteras/AFP
Debretsion Gebremichael, chairman of the TPLF, said there had been bombing by federal forces in several parts of eastern Tigray. Most of the federal army stationed in Tigray was now under the TPLF control, he said, which the Ethiopian government had denied.

The Ethiopian parliament has given Mr Abiy the authority to replace the Tigrayan government. “If they feel that Tigrayans must be under their feet, how can we live together?” Mr Debretsion asked. “They have gone too far.” Eritrean troops had already started attacking Tigray, he added, a claim that Addis Ababa has rejected.

Enyew Meseret, a 25-year-old Amhara special forces soldier stationed near the border with Tigray — where ambulances and truckloads of soldiers have become a common sight — said he was reluctantly prepared to fight Tigray. “We all want peace, not fighting between brothers,” he said. “But the TPLF has done very bad things, so I’ll fight if I have to.”

Get alerts on Ethiopia when a new story is published

[dawwit]

I am sure they are stashing weopon for a protracted war. Months, years!

[Selam/]

Kichamo - Of course, Tigreans are brave. But did those Media outlets talk about the cowardice Woyane rats? I don't even have the slightest appetite to mention your name. IRIGUM!

THE FINANCIAL TIMES IS ONE OF THEM

https://www.ft.com/content/1045b184-cd0 ... a5a7819331




READ THIS IN CASE THE LINK DOES NOT OPEN FOR YOU
Tigray crisis: ‘They know how to fight and they can do it ’til the end’
Ethiopian region has tradition of hardened fighters but Abiy says offensive can end quickly

Amhara militia are being sent by the thousands to fight in neighbouring Tigray © Eduardo Soteras/AFP
Share on Twitter (opens new window)
Share on Facebook (opens new window)
Share on LinkedIn (opens new window)
Save
Andres Schipani in Nairobi and David Pilling in London NOVEMBER 15, 2020
Print this page
Nigsti Tadese knew another war was coming when she heard the whooshing of a jet fighter from the Ethiopian air force flying over Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, a region in the north of the country bordering Eritrea.

“We lost our fellows in the last war with Eritrea,” said Ms Nigsti, a grocery store owner, referring to the gruesome Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict of 1998-2000 in which some 70,000 people died and almost no land changed hands.

Tigray is at war again, this time with the federal government in Addis Ababa, and observers fear it could escalate — with huge consequences for the Horn of Africa. “In a war there will not be a winner,” said Ms Nigsti, after Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister, this month sent troops and jets to attack the region, which is led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

Already there are signs of how badly this conflict in northern Ethiopia could turn. On Saturday, the TPLF fired rockets into the airports of the Ethiopian cities of Gondar and Bahir Dar in Amhara state, which neighbours Tigray, as well as across the border at Asmara, the capital of Eritrea. Amnesty International last week reported that potentially hundreds of non-combatants had been stabbed or hacked to death, in an incident that bears all the hallmarks of an ethnic massacre. Witnesses blamed forces loyal to the TPLF, but its leadership has denied any involvement.

The fighting is the culmination of a bitter feud between the TPLF and Mr Abiy who took office in 2018 and purged his governing coalition leadership of many Tigrayans. The TPLF, in turn, defied the postponement of the national presidential poll due to Covid-19 by holding regional elections in September, deemed illegal by Addis.


Citizens wait to vote in Tigray’s regional elections in September. The prime minister later deemed the polls illegal © Eduardo Soteras/AFP
Months of tension escalated into armed conflict this month after an alleged attack by the TPLF on a federal military base of the Northern Command. Mr Abiy has said he expected what he called a “law enforcement” operation to “wrap up soon”.

Many security experts doubt that, saying hostilities could drag on and become a full-blown civil war. “The TPLF is an ex-guerrilla military . . . that knows this game extremely well,” said Rashid Abdi, an independent expert on the Horn of Africa. “They are being attacked on their home ground and everyone who knows the geography of Tigray knows it is difficult, mountainous and rugged — ideal guerrilla territory.”

Western diplomats fear the conflict could even trigger other wars in a country riven by ethnic rivalries.

Shishay Adane, a Tigrayan activist living in Mekelle, the regional capital, said he feared that Ethiopia would “become another Yugoslavia”, a reference to the break-up of that country in the 1990s along ethnic lines. He urged the international community to put pressure on the federal government led by Mr Abiy, whom he called an “authoritarian”.

Recommended
The FT ViewThe editorial board
Ethiopia must step back from brink of civil war

The African Union has called for an immediate ceasefire; the UN said clashes have already sent more than 14,000 refugees across the border into Sudan, and Pope Francis asked for a “peaceful end” of the conflict.

For the moment hostilities are escalating. Thousands of liyu hail, or special forces, and an alliance of militia fighters from the neighbouring Amhara region — which has disputes with Tigray over land — have been deployed to the regional border, local authorities say.

“The conflict is between TPLF and the whole country, not just with Amhara,” said Gizachew Abebe, a senior member of the Amhara government, calling the TPLF “evil”. The central government accuses the TPLF, which it has labelled a “belligerent” and “criminal clique”, of stoking ethnic violence in other parts of the country.

Tigrayans have a long history of fighting Addis Ababa. They did so in the 1940s against Emperor Haile Selassie in the so-called Woyane rebellion. Forty years on, they led a successful guerrilla war against the Marxist Derg regime, coming to power in 1991 after marching into the capital.

Map of Ethiopia
The TPLF then ran the country, as the dominant member of a four-party governing coalition, until 2017, overseeing what is often described as Africa’s most successful economic transformation in a country of more than 110m people. Once associated with famine, for the past 20 years Ethiopia, though authoritarian, has been the fastest-growing large economy in Africa.

But resentment grew against Tigrayans, who make up just 6 per cent of the population. After years of protests, Mr Abiy, from the much bigger Oromo ethnic group, came to power, promising democratic reforms and peace with Eritrea, for which he won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Now, experts warn, fighting with Tigray could draw in Eritrea, whose President Isaias Afewerki has grown close to Mr Abiy, but who loathes the TPLF. The Ethiopia-Eritrea war, fought across the Tigrayan border, left Tigray with an estimated quarter-million armed fighters, according to the Crisis Group.

“They know how to fight and they can do it ’til the end with a knife between their teeth,” said Samahagn Genet, a former soldier who, aged 17, handled bombs in the Ethiopian army during the war with Eritrea.

“The special forces in Tigray are powerful,” said Abel Kidanu, a security analyst in Mekelle. “Most of them are young. They got modern training from the generals and commandos who served Ethiopia for so many years.”


Security experts fear ongoing hostilities could ignite into a full-blown civil war © Eduardo Soteras/AFP
Debretsion Gebremichael, chairman of the TPLF, said there had been bombing by federal forces in several parts of eastern Tigray. Most of the federal army stationed in Tigray was now under the TPLF control, he said, which the Ethiopian government had denied.

The Ethiopian parliament has given Mr Abiy the authority to replace the Tigrayan government. “If they feel that Tigrayans must be under their feet, how can we live together?” Mr Debretsion asked. “They have gone too far.” Eritrean troops had already started attacking Tigray, he added, a claim that Addis Ababa has rejected.

Enyew Meseret, a 25-year-old Amhara special forces soldier stationed near the border with Tigray — where ambulances and truckloads of soldiers have become a common sight — said he was reluctantly prepared to fight Tigray. “We all want peace, not fighting between brothers,” he said. “But the TPLF has done very bad things, so I’ll fight if I have to.”

Get alerts on Ethiopia when a new story is published

[gagi]

This Is your bravery, this your story!

Your fascist group will pay a hefty price for all these human sufferings! You will be decimated; take my word!

[Awash]

Meanwhile

[gagi]

FAKE news by the desperado!

Your fate is sealed!

[Za-Ilmaknun]

አዳዲስ መረጃዎች ከግንባር
(በኤፍሬም በላይ)
==============
ጀግናዉ የኢፌዴሪ መከላከያ ሠራዊት ወሳኝ ድሎችን ከተቀናጀባቸው ቦታዎች ብዙዎቹን ቀድማችሁ በተለያየ መንገድ ልትሰሙ ብትችሉም ዛሬ ግን ከትክክለኛው ቦታ ማረጋገጥ ችያለሁ።

በጎንደር የገባው ሀይል ሙሉ በሙሉ ገጠር ከተማን እያፀዳ ውቅሮ መድረሱን እና መቀሌ ብቻ ቀረ በሚያስብል ደረጃ ላይ መሆኑን አረጋግጫለሁ።

እኛ ባለንበት አለማጣ ግራካሶ ተራራ ላይ ልዩ ሀይላችን ጋር ጦርነት ለማካሄድ የሞከረው ቡድንም ዛሬ ከመሸ ለቁጥር በሚያዳግት ሁኔታ ያለምንም ጦርነት ከፍተኛ ቁጥር ያለው የህወሓት ልዩ ሀይል እጅ በመስጠት አለማጣ የገባ ሲሆን ገሚሶቹ እጅ ብንሰጥ አደጋ ሊገጥመን ይችላል በሚል ስጋቻ ቦታውን ለቀው ሸሽተዋል። በዚህ ሰዓት ግራካሶ የሚገኙትም መራመድ የማይችሉ አካል ጉዳተኞች ብቻ ሲሆኑ እነሱም በከፍተኛ ረሃብና ጥም ላይ እንደሆኑ ለማወቅ ተችሏል።

በባላ በኩል ያሉ የገጠር ቀበሌዎችን በሙሉ እያፀዳ ራያ ጨርጨር፣ ራያ ኩኩፍቶ እና ራያ መሆኒን ተቆጣጥሮ ከመሆኒ ወደ ማይጨው የሚወስደውን ጅንታው የሰበረውን ድልድይ በተገጣጣሚ ድልድይ ተክቶ በማይጨው ዙሪያ ያሉትን ቀበሌዎች ጀግናው ሰራዊታችን ነጻ አውጥቷል!!!!

በሰቆጣ በኩል የገባው ሰራዊትም ቦታው ላይ በመድረስ መቀሌን ለመቆጣጠር ትዕዛዝ እየጠበቀ ይገኛል።

ሌላኛው በሰቆጣ በኩል የገባው የአማራ ልዩ ሀይል ኮረምን በሙሉ በመክበብ ከግራካሶ የሚሸሸውን ምርኮኛ በመሰብሰብና ያለጦርነት እየሸሸ ያለውን ሀይል በመቀበል ላይ ይገኛል።

በመጨረሻም መረጃውን ያቀበለኝ አካል በእናንተ በኩል ያሉት የአሸባሪው ልዩ ሀይሎች በመቀሌ በኩል ያለው የጁንታው ቡድን አቅም ስላጣ በራሳቸው ግዜ ይበተናሉ ብሏል። ዋናዎቹ ሰዎች ግን ራሳቸውን ሊያጠፉ ይችላሉ ብሉ እንደሚገምት እና በዚህ ሳምንት ውስጥ መቀሌን ሙሉ በሙሉ እንደሚቆጣጠሩ በቅርቡ ይህ ጦርነት አብቅቶ እንደታሪክ እንደሚወራ በተጨባጭ አረጋግጦልኛል። እኔም ራሳቸውን ካጠፉ ብየ በማሰብ ካሁኑ መበሳጨት ጀምሪያለሁ።

ክብር ለጀግናዉ የሃገር መከላከያ ሠራዊት!
ክብር ለጀግናው የአማራ ልዩ ሃይል እና ሚሊሻ!
ክብር ለጀግናው የአፋር ልዩ ሃይል እና ፖሊስ!
ክብር ለአማራ ሚሊሻ!

[Awash]

Factbox: The forces fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray conflict

NOVEMBER 17, 20201:04 PM. By Reuters Staff

ADDIS ABABA/NAIROBI (Reuters) - Ethiopia’s military is fighting battle-hardened troops in the northern Tigray region, threatening stability around the Horn of Africa.

FILE PHOTO: Militia members from Ethiopia's Amhara region ride on their truck as they head to face the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), in Sanja, Amhara region near a border with Tigray, Ethiopia November 9, 2020. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri

Here are some facts on the forces:

THE NATIONAL MILITARY: THE ENDF

The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) has around 140,000 active personnel, the vast majority of them in the army, according to the Janes security data group.

Its troops have been tested by Islamist militants in Somalia and rebel groups in Ethiopia’s border regions, as well as a two-year border war with Eritrea followed by an 18-year standoff that only ended in 2018.

Between the ENDF forces and other fighters loyal to the federal government there are an estimated 40-50,000 fighters in Tigray at the moment, two diplomats following the conflict said.

Its air force gives it dominance in the skies over Tigray. According to Janes, it has 15 Sukhoi Su-27SK and eight MiG-23ML fighter jets, around 20 Mi-24 and Mi-35 helicopter gunships and a range of air defence and missile systems, as well as scores of Russian T-55 and T-72 tanks.

A senior diplomat working on the Ethiopia crisis said Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had increasingly fallen back on support from forces from Tigray’s southern neighbour Amhara in ground fighting - raising the risk of ethnic violence.

IN THE BALANCE: THE NORTHERN COMMAND

One big question mark lies over the fate of the firepower and personnel of the federal military’s powerful Northern Command, headquartered in Tigray’s capital Mekelle.

Regional fighters control the headquarters building and have seized heavy weapons, according to a United Nations report seen by Reuters. It is unclear how much of the federal military’s hardware was in Tigray when fighting broke out.

The northern region’s ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) says it has taken over the Northern Command’s assets. The federal military has acknowledged the loss of a compound, but said its troops remain loyal and have been fighting back.

Dozens of ENDF soldiers in the Northern Command remain in their barracks and are taking no part in fighting, a regional security expert told Reuters.

Abiy’s government says it has carried out air strikes to destroy equipment in the hands of the Tigrayans. “The importance of the armour in Tigray cannot be overstated,” a military source in the Horn of Africa told Reuters.

A series of missile strikes over the last week on Asmara, the capital of neighbouring Eritrea, and two sites in Ethiopia - all claimed by the TPLF - show that regional forces have some long-range weapons.

TIGRAY’S FORCES: THE TPLF

As many as 250,000 soldiers and militia serve under regional commanders in Tigray, according to the International Crisis Group.

Of these, there are some 30-60,000 effective fighters, one of the diplomats said.

The TPLF says its air defence systems have shot down a federal army jet, an assertion dismissed by the military.

Analysts say they do not yet know what missiles the TPLF used in the strikes on Asmara and targets within Ethiopia but Janes said that Tigray had several S-75 and S-125 surface-to-air missile systems, primarily used for air defence, before fighting broke out.

The regional force has a formidable history. Tigrayan fighters led the rebel march to drive out the Marxist Derg regime in 1991 and bore the brunt of the Eritrean war.

THE WILD CARD: ERITREA

Over Tigray’s northern border, Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki – a long-time foe of the TPLF - controls a vast standing army which the United States’ CIA puts at 200,000 personnel.

His government has dismissed TPLF reports that Eritrean troops have already crossed the border, an assertion two diplomats said was highly probable. Any such intervention could tip the Tigray fighting into a regional war.

The TPLF has also accused the federal government of being supported by “non-African actors”, a reference diplomats said was to potential help from the United Arab Emirates, which has a military base at Assab, an Eritrean port on the Red Sea. UAE has in recent years turned Assab into a strategic hub for its military operations in Yemen. There was no immediate reply from UAE officials to a request for comment.

Eritrea has a system of mandatory military service for all adults which rights groups say amounts to indefinite conscription for many and forces thousands to flee the country.

Reporting by David Lewis, Maggie Fick and Giulia Paravicini; Writing by Andrew Heavens and David Lewis; Editing by William Maclean

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-ethi ... SKBN27X19E

[Awash]

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