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Zmeselo
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Nile dam row: Egypt fumes as Ethiopia celebrates. (The BBC is on the side of Egypt, clearly)

Post by Zmeselo » 30 Jul 2020, 22:34



Nile dam row: Egypt fumes as Ethiopia celebrates

By Magdi Abdelhadi: Egypt analyst

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-afri ... ssion=true

29 July 2020 Africa


GETTY IMAGES: The Nile is seen as Egypt's lifeblood - without its waters the country fears for its survival

As Ethiopia celebrated rains which began filling a controversial dam on a tributary of the River Nile, Egypt was fuming.

The North African nation had long been opposed to any development on the Nile upstream that could reduce the amount of water it receives from the river and has regarded the Ethiopian project as an existential threat.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd), which has been in construction since 2011, is now holding back water - and contains 4.9 billion cubic metres (bcm) of the Blue Nile's water after this season's rains.

This is despite Egypt's insistence that no filling should take place without a legally binding agreement about how the process will be managed.

In another four to six years the reservoir, which sits behind what will be Africa's largest hydroelectric plant when it comes into operation, is expected to reach 74bcm.

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Satellite pictures from earlier in July showed the dam filling up:

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Egypt and Ethiopia, along with Sudan through which the Blue Nile also flows, have been negotiating for the best part of a decade, but all the while the dam has been built.

They signed a declaration of principles in 2015 which spoke about the "spirit of co-operation", but Egypt feels that has been missing.

In the past year, it has invested time and political capital by lobbying at the highest international level and seeking help from the US and the UN, but to no avail.


US PRESIDENT'S OFFICE: The US tried, but failed, to get Egypt and Ethiopia to sign up to an agreement

Egypt appears to have lost that battle.

It has failed to force Ethiopia to abide by the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention requiring upstream countries to consult the downstream states before embarking on projects of this magnitude.

At this point it is hard to imagine what else Egypt could possibly do today other than acquiesce and do as much damage limitation as possible. However, a military option has never been explicitly ruled out.

The Egyptian leadership has repeatedly said it remains committed to resolution through negotiation. But it usually adds the caveat that "all options remain on the table" - a phrase that often alludes to possible conflict.

The government has repeatedly described the issue of the Gerd project as a matter of life and death. This will be especially true if there is a substantial reduction of the amount of the water that reaches Egypt as a result of the dam.

________________________________________________________

Explore the Nile with 360 video



Alastair Leithead and his team travelled in 2018 from the Blue Nile's source to the sea - through Ethiopia and Sudan into Egypt.

________________________________________________________

But now, with the filling a reality the Egyptian government has tried to put a brave face on things.

Officially, it said that Egypt remained committed to the current diplomatic process which is being handled by the African Union, and repeated its old mantra that it will not accept unilateral action from Ethiopia.

Water poverty

It has also insisted that any future agreement must endorse what it sees as its established Nile rights to 55bcm of water from the river.

On average 49bcm of water flows through the Blue Nile tributary a year and Ethiopia has consistently refused to concede to giving Egypt a commitment to a specific amount that it will allow to flow through the dam. It sees Egypt's demands as a legacy of agreements that were made without its involvement.

Egypt's official response betrayed powerlessness rather than resolve.


Ros Atkins on...why can’t Egypt and Ethiopia agree on the Nile dam?

The stakes have never been higher for the country.

Describing the Gerd as an existential threat is not hyperbole. Egypt is an arid country and is seen as very water-poor.

The World Bank classifies water scarcity as when there is less than 1,000 cubic metres of fresh water per person a year. In Egypt, the figure is 550 cubic metre per person annually, according to the government.

Just take a look at the map, where 90% of its 100 million population are squeezed into the narrow Nile valley, 6% of the country's total area, beset by vast deserts on both sides.

'Outmanoeuvred'

The Nile provides Egyptians with their primary source of water, for both drinking and agriculture.

Its current annual share of the Nile waters, the now endangered 55bcm, already falls far short of its needs.

This explains that while on an official level Egypt has so far exercised verbal restraint, the media and commentators have not held back.


GETTY IMAGES: Egypt says the waters of the Nile are vital for its agricultural sector

To them, Ethiopia had used the drawn out negotiations to blindside the Egyptians while creating facts on the ground to exercise total control over the river.

A triumphalist tweet celebrating the first year's filling of the Gerd by Ethiopia Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew - which read in part
the river became a lake... the Nile is ours
- particularly inflamed passions.

It confirmed what Egyptians had long feared and some replied with all sorts of threats.

An Egyptian columnist begrudgingly acknowledged that Ethiopia had outmanoeuvred his country, but it is not over yet, Imad-al-Din Husayn wrote in the daily Shorouq newspaper, in an effort to reassure his readers.
The Ethiopians refuse to believe that without the Nile we would die, literally. They have many rivers and receive around 950bcm of rain water annually. We receive a paltry 55bcm, half of what we actually need, which is also half of what their livestock consumes annually,
he added in exasperation and summing up the imbalance that many Egyptians feel.

Diplomatic wrangle

On its part Egypt has launched several water management schemes, which include the recycling of waste water in agriculture, desalination plants, and an ambitious program to change traditional forms of irrigation to the more water saving method of drip-irrigation.

But the argument about Egypt's water poverty is perhaps its strongest card in the diplomatic wrangle, if it can be used to galvanise international support.

Apart from a short advert made in several languages, the Egyptian administration has so far failed to launch a concerted information campaign to win over global backing.

Both in sub-Saharan Africa and even in the US, the Ethiopians appear to have fared much better.

The current chairperson of the African Union is South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. Many Egyptians believe that South Africa is biased in favour of Ethiopia, which does not augur well for the talks.

If these fail to produce a satisfactory result, Egypt believes it can take the issue back to the UN Security Council for a resolution that ties the hands of Ethiopia.

But it is far from certain that it can secure the support of all the five permanent members.

Recent reports have suggested that both China and Russia will oppose such a move, because they do not want to set a precedent as they both have their own river disputes with downstream neighbours.

Failure to bridge the gap between Egypt and Ethiopia could spell disaster for both.

Turmoil in Egypt as a result of drought and potential mass displacement could have far reaching consequences across the whole of North Africa and Europe. And an armed conflict between two of Africa's largest and greatest nations should be a scary prospect not just for the Africans, but for the whole world.


Zmeselo
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Re: Nile dam row: Egypt fumes as Ethiopia celebrates. (The BBC is on the side of Egypt, clearly)

Post by Zmeselo » 30 Jul 2020, 22:52


The High Dam in Aswan, Egypt. Getty Images

Plans for a dam across the Nile triggered a war in 1956: will it happen again?

Mike Muller, University of the Witwatersrand

https://theconversation.com/amp/plans-f ... ssion=true

July 30, 2020

Over the past decade, observers have watched with trepidation as tensions increased between Egypt and Ethiopia over the construction of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam https://theconversation.com/the-grand-r ... ock-143018 on the Blue Nile River.

Egyptian politicians have publicly threatened war http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent ... am-me.aspx to defend what they see as their existential interest – Egypt’s right to use most of the Nile’s water. Over 80% of the water https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/eg ... curse-nile that reaches Egypt comes from Ethiopia.

It has been suggested https://www.ooskanews.com/story/2012/09 ... aks_152478 that Egypt has been encouraging separatist movements in Ethiopia to weaken Ethiopia’s government and discourage the project.

Egypt has long defended its right, under colonial era agreements, https://theconversation.com/colonial-er ... dam-133538 to stop nine of the upstream countries (including Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia) from using Nile water. It has a separate agreement with Sudan.

So the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is important because it could set a precedent for other countries to ignore Egypt’s claims and start using Nile water for their own development.

In June, the Ethiopians announced https://af.reuters.com/article/idAFKCN2 ... %20nations that, after heavy rains, the dam had started to fill the reservoir.

There has never been a war over water, http://www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sc ... ater-wars/ though plans for a massive dam on the Nile were at the centre of one of the most dramatic incidents in the Cold War. The 1956 Suez Crisis https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/suez-crisis was triggered by Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalising the canal. One of the reasons he cited was that Egypt needed to raise funds to build the Aswan Dam. https://history.blog.gov.uk/2016/07/26/ ... uez-canal/ Israel, joined by French and British forces, attempted a military intervention, but were forced to withdraw in late 1956 and early 1957.

It’s useful to look back at this history for some context to the current tensions.

The Aswan High Dam

For many decades, Egyptians had sought ways to reduce their dependence http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/do ... 1&type=pdf on a river whose flow was dangerously erratic. There were years of destructive floods and years too dry to sustain the millions of rural Egyptians’ livelihoods.

The Aswan High Dam https://www.water-technology.net/projec ... dan-egypt/ provided a way out of this cycle of disaster. The vision was of a dam that would store enough water to see Egypt through the worst drought in a century, and smooth the river’s flow.

The challenge was to turn that vision into reality.

Nasser negotiated https://adst.org/2016/06/dont-give-dam- ... -high-dam/ with the US and European countries to finance the dam, but the project became embroiled in global politics. When the time came to put the money on the table, the US withdrew its support. It also ensured that the World Bank did the same. Britain was focusing on other colonial ambitions.

So Egypt turned instead to the Soviet Union for support and by doing so was seen to have joined the socialist camp in the Cold War.

In 1956 https://adst.org/2016/06/dont-give-dam- ... -high-dam/ Nasser nationalised the Suez Canal, saying it was necessary to pay for the Aswan Dam. https://history.blog.gov.uk/2016/07/26/ ... uez-canal/

British and French troops invaded the canal area https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/ ... ckgr1.html in an attempt to reassert control over this vital link between Britain and many of its colonies. But when the US refused to support them, they were obliged to hand over control to the first ever United Nations peacekeeping force. The canal was left in Egypt’s hands, albeit under United Nations supervision.

With the monies from the canal now flowing to Egypt instead of to its original European owners, the Soviets felt able to give Egypt the loans it sought. They provided much of the funding for the Aswan Dam, although a great deal of the design and construction work was done by Egyptians themselves.

While some Western commentators described the project as a disaster, https://www.thirdworldcentre.org/wp-con ... chap17.pdf the results were impressive. The dam allowed Egypt to expand the area under irrigation by a third. Egyptian farmers could plant two crops a year. By 1970 when the dam was completed, the 2,100MW of power it generated supplied more than half of Egypt’s electricity needs.

Aside from the substantial economic benefits, the dam’s success established leadership roles in the Middle East for both Nasser and Egypt during a tumultuous period in the region’s history.

This history makes Egypt’s complaints about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam look a little hypocritical. Ethiopia is emulating what Egypt did 60 years ago to boost its national development.

The current crisis

Egypt’s most recent complaint is that, by filling the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam too fast, Ethiopia will deprive Egypt of essential water. Currently, Ethiopia proposes to fill the dam in four to seven years. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/nile-ri ... ia/1845930 But Egypt filled the Aswan High Dam, which stores three times as much water as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, in just 12 years.

And Ethiopia’s dam could actually help Egypt save water. The guaranteed flow will allow Egypt to keep the Aswan Dam’s levels lower. This will reduce evaporation, through which the dam loses around 10% https://www.cde.state.co.us/standardsan ... n/aswandam of the river’s water.

Now that the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has begun, Egypt will have to recognise the right of the upstream countries to use some of the water that flows from their lands.

But unfortunately, Egypt’s official position has encouraged a bellicose populist nationalism that will be hard to calm. And the military rulers https://theconversation.com/active-citi ... gypt-98710 will have to explain why they failed to stop what they had said was a threat to the nation’s very survival.

When Nasser took control of the Suez Canal he blocked Israeli ships from using it. That action, rather than the construction of the High Dam, is what led to the 1967 and 1973 wars https://www.history.com/topics/middle-e ... 20friction with Israel and to continued regional conflicts.

If history repeats itself, it is likely that attention will shift from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to other political problems that Egypt faces.

Meanwhile Sudan, placed between the new Ethiopian dam and Egypt, will benefit from expanded irrigation and some of the dam’s cheap electricity. Ethiopia will develop more of its water resources for agriculture. The dam’s electricity will power the Addis Ababa metro and the industry it hopes to attract.

So water and the Renaissance Dam, rather than becoming a cause for war, may yet be a source of peace and progress, as the Aswan High Dam has proved to be.


Mike Muller, advises government and has received funding from the AfDB and World Bank for work on regional water management. He is also a member of a number of professional associations that are active in the area of water management.

Awash
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Re: Nile dam row: Egypt fumes as Ethiopia celebrates. (The BBC is on the side of Egypt, clearly)

Post by Awash » 30 Jul 2020, 23:00

:lol: :lol: :mrgreen: :lol: :lol:
Zombie,
If you don't like the news, don't blame (kill) the messenger :lol: :mrgreen: :lol:
Last edited by Awash on 31 Jul 2020, 00:27, edited 1 time in total.

Zmeselo
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Posts: 21008
Joined: 30 Jul 2010, 20:43

Re: Nile dam row: Egypt fumes as Ethiopia celebrates. (The BBC is on the side of Egypt, clearly)

Post by Zmeselo » 30 Jul 2020, 23:06



Awash wrote:
30 Jul 2020, 23:00
:lol: :lol: :mrgreen: :lol: :lol:
Zombie,
If you don't like the news, don't blame (kill( the messenger :lol: :mrgreen: :lol:

Awash
Senior Member+
Posts: 28937
Joined: 07 Aug 2010, 00:35

Re: Nile dam row: Egypt fumes as Ethiopia celebrates. (The BBC is on the side of Egypt, clearly)

Post by Awash » 31 Jul 2020, 00:33

Zombie,
Are you upset because your nemisis, the half-Eritrean Meles, will be remembered for G.E.R.D. and your 100% Agame Isaias will be remembered for rubbish?
:lol: :lol: :mrgreen:

This is what wedi komarit will be remembered by. :oops: :oops: :oops:



[/quote]

Awash
Senior Member+
Posts: 28937
Joined: 07 Aug 2010, 00:35

Re: Nile dam row: Egypt fumes as Ethiopia celebrates. (The BBC is on the side of Egypt, clearly)

Post by Awash » 31 Jul 2020, 01:12

Zombie,
Oh, yeah. This will also be remembered as the mother of all lies.
Please wait, video is loading...

Zmeselo
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Re: Nile dam row: Egypt fumes as Ethiopia celebrates. (The BBC is on the side of Egypt, clearly)

Post by Zmeselo » 31 Jul 2020, 02:06

The nemesis of the ethiopian people & humanity!!!








Awash wrote:
31 Jul 2020, 00:33
Zombie,
Are you upset because your nemisis, the half-Eritrean Meles, will be remembered for G.E.R.D. and your 100% Agame Isaias will be remembered for rubbish?
:lol: :lol: :mrgreen:

This is what wedi komarit will be remembered by. :oops: :oops: :oops:


[/quote]


abel qael
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Joined: 07 May 2007, 03:21
Location: gumamistan

Re: Nile dam row: Egypt fumes as Ethiopia celebrates. (The BBC is on the side of Egypt, clearly)

Post by abel qael » 31 Jul 2020, 05:17

zifeshelet, who are you trying to fool on behalf of Meshrefet, we know Meshrefet already sold the Tigray Gifit for Ethiopia, GERD, to the Egyptians in exchange of crumbs aka Egypt's slave aka wedimedhin giving Meshrefet the crumbs aka the cheap and useless Sawa kitten as mercenaries to fight against Tigray and Oromia. Now that you are losing the battle, you are trying to cheat the Egyptians who bought the GERD for crumbs aka cursedarteran mercenaries, who are nothing but burden for Meshrefet. Go su'ck Al Sisi dk, you bi'tch son of hamasenay lootiew banda, try to full Amharu but not us, we know the GERD is sold for crumbs by the traitor Meshrefet, and we will kill him in return.

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